2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by New Era

Retired.

He's going to walk away from $14 million?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Neither Frost or Myers has the upside of a player like Johnny and Voracek is a contract that will look uglier every year it is on the books.

Teams sure have success with a bunch of 31-37 year olds eating up 32% of the cap and that is what this deal does to the Flames. Voracek, Gio, Backlund and Lucic. This team hasn’t won anything but they are somehow locked into an aging core. But they got some average you g pieces back. Maybe Frost can make it on the second line some day? Could be he is only a 3rd liner. Pretty average numbers for a guy drafted 3 years ago already. Myers could be a second pairing guy but he now needs to be protected over the Captain which makes sense but now your trade has cost this team Gaudreau and Giordano without bringing back a single elite piece. This somehow sets the team up long term?

A top 10 pick in this coming draft immediately becomes a better asset than Frost. Not tying up $8.25M in Voracek allows them to take a run at Taylor Hall. Your deal prices them out immediately by adding significant cap.

It is like there is zero thought of the cap or expansion draft?

Beauty post, nailed it. We need one or two premium assets. Not a bunch of nice peices. I think Hall is better than 50/50, so we need cap space to actually sign him. He is much better than Vorachek and younger.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by New Era

Retired.

If only it really worked that way, right?

[Scroopy Noopers]

You have to come back to the idea of either:
1) re-signing Johnny, and accepting that cap hit on this team.
2) letting him walk for nothing.

You can’t forget those points. You can search for premium value right up to the end of his current contract. The trade isn’t going to look perfect, especially the day it is executed.

The Hamilton trade was raised and its a perfect example. I was beside myself that they brought in two pieces and didn’t pluck a guaranteed premium right winger with an asset that large (big, fast, offensively gifted, bargain cap hit, defenseman with multiple term years).

But I wouldn’t have it any other way (obviously, due to the result).

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by New Era

Please acknowledge the reality of the situation. You are not moving Gaudreau and NOT taking salary back. This is the reality of trades in the NHL. The salaries have to pretty much balance out. Going to Philly would be $10M in salary and coming back to Calgary would be $9.8M. That balances out makes it work for the bean counters.

I really want to know what gives anyone the impression that Voracek is slowing down and will be a risky proposition going forward? He is playing the same game and being just as effective as he has always been. He's proven to be durable and is a top player at his position. Why is he going to all of a sudden going to drop off a cliff? You have answer that question especially when many of you are suggesting the Flames waste an expansion protection slot in a 38 Mark Giordano, who I guess bathes in the fountain of youth every morning. Those two positions are not consistent in any way.

It is hilarious to watch the same people who dump all over one player (Frost) yet walk around with a boner over another similar player. (Cozens) You do understand that Frost and Cozens put up similar numbers (PPG) in their draft +1, Frost being more of a setup man and Cozens being more a finisher? Oh, but Frost doesn't have the upside because he wasn't drafted top 10 like Cozens, amiright? It is down right laughable to watch the theatrics of people trying to dump on a player they know nothing about. You only look at draft position, like that matters a whole helluva lot (right Sam Bennett), and think that makes one player better than another. What matters is what happens after you're drafted. Frost ripped up the OHL in back-to-back years after he was drafted (112 and 109 points), leading his team in scoring by 27 and then 32 points, the later while playing eight less games than his closest team mate. Then the silly refrain of "Frost didn't put up a PPG in the minors" comes up. Yeah, he didn't. He only put up 29 points in 41 games. But is anyone one aware that the leading scorer for Leigh Valley put up 30 points in 57 games played? The kid is a stud plain and simple. The Flames would be damn lucky to get a player of his caliber back in any trade.

The ignorance on Myers is also very frustrating. The kid actually has the potential to solidify our back end for years to come. If you can shake loose a big RD just coming into his own in this deal you do it and laugh your way to the bank. Myers has top four potential written all over him. Just scored 16 points in 50 games played and was a sparkling +17, second best on the Flyers behind Couturier. With Myers in the fold you then have a post-Giordano top four of Hanafin-Andersson and Valimaki-Myers. All currently under the age of 24. Again, fills a need a sets the team up for success.

The reality of moving Gaudreau is you're not going to be getting a player of similar stature. You're going to have to make a deal for parts that have some pimples and come with some risk. Just like the Dougie Hamilton deal. Hamilton was the best player in the deal, but the Flames got (at the time) the next best two players. This is what to expect with a trade of Gaudreau. The Flames have an opportunity to fill numerous gaps in a single deal. They should do it and not roll the dice on unknown quantities at the draft table. I would hope that the hill of beans we got for Iginla would drive that point home.

Oh, and for historical perspective, when the Flames dealt away Nieuwendyk they did a similar deal, taking on Corey Millen and an untouted player in Jarome Iginla, instead of the higher regarded Todd Harvey, who was drafted two picks earlier. The critics were very vocal about this "mistake" and how the Flames should have held out for the better prospect. Sometimes draft position doesn't mean a hill of beans.

Giordano has already beaten the odds though. Nothing says Voracek will age like that. That's an audacious argument... That we should be down with bringing in 30+ year olds because we are ok with keeping our 36 year old captain who has 2 years left? Gio is an anomaly. Is Voracek? I don't know... But probably not. That's what an anomaly is. Voracek is a fine player, but I'm not fawning over a left shot RW who puts up 0.8 ppg on one of the top lines in the league and who will get worse. If he reckons with age soon, then we are long term screwed. That is not the kind of gamble I like.

But I do agree that we need to gamble when we target players. Patrick is the guy from Philly. If we lose that gamble we wipe our hands clean. No ugly contract for a 31 year old. If we win, we get a big 21 year old top 2 line centre with a massive ceiling ala Bergeron and Getzlaf. Those players aren't on the market.

[Vinny01]

A deal I would consider for Johnny.

To New Jersey: Gaudreau
To Flames: Zacha, Smith, 7th overall

This deal frees up $4.5M for the Flames and makes the decision easy to walk away from Jankowski. Zacha seemed to be getting it together at .5ppg and is the same age as Lindholm when the Flames acquired him. He was picked right after Hanifin in 2015.

Ty Smith is a solid D prospect that would likely be a year away from making the team. 7th pick in the draft is one of Drysdale, Raymond, Rossi, Sanderson, Perfetti which would be another player that is a year away and potentially a cornerstone piece down the road. I really like the top 10 prospects in this draft and think there are some potential stars in the making.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Cap space is the new currency. With the cap staying flat, good luck with finding a suitor that will take Gaudreau's contract without taking cap back.

Yes, I know Johnny is good, but Johnny also needs a new contract in 2 years. You have to take that consideration. If we take back cap, we'll get more of a return, but possibly losing out on Taylor Hall. If we trade Gaudreau without a lot of cap coming back, then you best believe we won't get the desired return on our elite LW.

Really doubt it's that cut and dry.

If a team comes knocking then that means they are looking to add a superstar to their top 6, which means they'd have to the space to accomplish that, and fetching one for 6.75 is way more ideal than a 9-10M player.

Teams that want to compete make space to make such adds when they want to push themselves over the top, and are usually willing go right to the cap.

If the Flames want to take minimal money back then they should be able to accomplish that just fine because of the already reasonable cap hit.

We're not taking anybody's dead weight if we don't want to when we're offering what will be the best player in the deal, and if we do then it's because the suitor is willing to massively overpay in futures.

[PepsiFree]

Yeah, the cap situation increases Gaudreau's value, not decreases it. He's on an excellent contract for a player of his quality. We do not need to take significant cap hit back to get a desirable return.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

A deal I would consider for Johnny.

To New Jersey: Gaudreau
To Flames: Zacha, Smith, 7th overall

This deal frees up $4.5M for the Flames and makes the decision easy to walk away from Jankowski. Zacha seemed to be getting it together at .5ppg and is the same age as Lindholm when the Flames acquired him. He was picked right after Hanifin in 2015.

Ty Smith is a solid D prospect that would likely be a year away from making the team. 7th pick in the draft is one of Drysdale, Raymond, Rossi, Sanderson, Perfetti which would be another player that is a year away and potentially a cornerstone piece down the road. I really like the top 10 prospects in this draft and think there are some potential stars in the making.

The Devils have 3 1sts in this upcoming draft, depending on the outcome of the lottery and whether or not the Canucks win their play in.

7th - NJD
11th - ARI
13th - VAN

I think it's extremely optimistic to think that the Devils would part with the highest one of the three.

Also, trading Johnny for any package that includes a 2020 draft pick means they are likely trading Johnny prior to securing Taylor Hall, unless they are able to secure his rights in a trade then they won't be able to talk to him (legally) until after the draft is completed. That would require the Yotes to be willing to trade his rights.

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Really doubt it's that cut and dry.

If a team comes knocking then that means they are looking to add a superstar to their top 6, and fetching one for 6.75 is way more ideal than a 9-10M player.

Teams that want to compete make space to make such adds when they want to push themselves over the top, and go right to the cap.

If the Flames want to take minimal money back then they should be able to accomplish that just fine because of the already reasonable cap hit.

We're not taking anybody's dead weight if we don't want to when we're offering what will be the best player in the deal, and if we do then it's because the suitor is willing to massively overpay in futures.

Well put.

[Major Major]

As for teams not wanting to take on cap without moving it out. Look at it this way. Johnny Gaudreau is a UFA and his agent his emails every GM in the league saying he is looking for a 2 year deal with an AAV of 6.75. How many GMs make the offer?

Yes, the trade is harder for them to do since they give up assets... But in this scenario, that agent gets 31 emails back. That is unbelievable value after all.

So how many teams are willing to make the deal of futures or young players with minimal cap going back to Calgary? My guess is, lots.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

If we are trading with Philly, I would demand Farabee, he looks like a stud. Not that frost isnt good I just worry that he will be a 2C when he tops out, but possibly a 3C. Farabee looks like he will be a top 6 guy who can compliment a top line. I want Patrick too, I wonder if him and Bennett might be worth discussing with Philly. Patrick is blocked in Philly if he's even healthy. Bennett is a Philly style player who slots in very well as a utility player in their bottom 6

Gaudreau
Bennett

For

Farabee
Patrick
25th overall


I think myers will carry too much value to target from them and frost will just get buried behind backlund. A guy like patrick could play 2RW or 3C depending on how things shake out. His health obviously complicates things but if those issues didnt exist, he'd be untouchable. It's a bit if a gamble but I feel like Farabee is a sure thing. Patrick muddies the waters but you arent getting a true 1C back, maybe patrick develops into one. With that 25th overall pick, you could maybe draft a dman. I'd be going dmen with both 1st picks assuming BPA if we landed patrick, farabee and hall. Add those guys to lindholm, tkachuk and Monahan and you have a really good and young top 6.

Your future at D is covered with Hanifin, Andersson, valimaki and the two 1sts you hopefully use on D if the players are good enough.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Your point is exactly why Johnny should have more value than what is being discussed here. Buffalo and New Jersey can take back the cap without sending much of any back.

The cap is flat for 2-3 years and the Flames are potentially putting a top 10 scorer in the league with a 6.75M cap hit on the market. His value should be that much higher because of his low cap hit.

If Taylor Hall is not coming here then I keep Johnny for another year. I just think that Hall wants to be here. Add him to replace Johnny today and the main pieces coming back would be a high pick or top end prospect.

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Really doubt it's that cut and dry.

If a team comes knocking then that means they are looking to add a superstar to their top 6, which means they'd have to the space to accomplish that, and fetching one for 6.75 is way more ideal than a 9-10M player.

Teams that want to compete make space to make such adds when they want to push themselves over the top, and are usually willing go right to the cap.

If the Flames want to take minimal money back then they should be able to accomplish that just fine because of the already reasonable cap hit.

We're not taking anybody's dead weight if we don't want to when we're offering what will be the best player in the deal, and if we do then it's because the suitor is willing to massively overpay in futures.

Perhaps not, but at the same time it's really not that cut and dry that we find a suitor that is willing to pay the price of Gaudreau. Don't get me wrong, if we are trading our superstar winger, I would hope we get a lot of great futures (if we're going that route), or a change-of-scenery kind of deal, or even us adding to Gaudreau to get a better player (unlikely). I am just saying that the cap remaining flat doesn't exactly increase Gaudreau's value, especially with the cap likely remaining flat for a couple of years.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Please acknowledge the reality that the team you proposed wouldn't be able to limp into the playoffs next season, let alone 2 seasons from now with Voracek eating a huge chunk of the cap and likely being worthless.

WTF? Wouldn't limp into the playoffs? Are you on crack?

You are aware that Voracek is top 10 RW in the game and is showing zero signs of slowing down? He is not injury prone and just contributes consistently from year to year. No one has been able to point to why Voracek is all of sudden going to fall to pieces, except because he is over 30. Yet the same people are arguing that Giordano will play well into his 40s. Do I really need to point out that Giordano has missed more games than Voracek since the last shortened season?

Myers is a great pickup, and should undoutedly be part of the return from Philly. to me the philly trade looks like this:

Patrick or Frost (I personally prefer Patrick) + Myers+ Sanheim + 1st 2020

Wait, what? You're suggesting a three player + a 1st swap for a player? First, when was the last time that happened? Second, why the hell would Philly trade away TWO of their top young defensemen? Not doable. Third, you're not trading for the pick in 2020, you're trading for the pick in 2021. The Flames won't trade Gaudeau until they have Hall in the bag, and they can't sign Hall until after the draft is complete. So unless they like the guy the Flyers picked in the past draft, that doesn't make sense.

The salary absolutely does work for philly to take on Johnny.
In fact, there are multiple teams that can take on johnny and his value contract while delivering us much less salary in return. You make it sound so cut and dry, but value contracts like Johnny's hold even more return value over the next few years with a flat cap. Players with large value and little impetus to trade (from our end) can absolutely be traded without aligning the salary.

That doesn't work for Philadelphia. They have $65M committed to 13 players. Add Gaudreau and that goes to $69. That means they have to add 9-10 bodies on $11M. Did I mention three of those bodies are RFAs and are Robert Hagg, Oskar Lindblom, and Nolan Patrick? And then they have to be ready for Carter Hart and Sam Morin's contact expirations the following year with only Scott Laughton's $2.6M contact of consequence coming off the books. It's not doable for Philly without moving a big salary. That's just the way things work.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Major Major

As for teams not wanting to take on cap without moving it out. Look at it this way. Johnny Gaudreau is a UFA and his agent his emails every GM in the league saying he is looking for a 2 year deal with an AAV of 6.75. How many GMs make the offer?

Yes, the trade is harder for them to do since they give up assets... But in this scenario, that agent gets 31 emails back. That is unbelievable value after all.

So how many teams are willing to make the deal of futures or young players with minimal cap going back to Calgary? My guess is, lots.

Agreed. His contract can help make a team competitive who are tied up with a underperforming contract. Who has a $4-$6mil contract that is underperforming and expires alongside Johnnys? I’ll have to dig around.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

He's going to walk away from $14 million?

He said he seriously considered it earlier this season. It is possible.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

He's going to walk away from $14 million?

He isn't retiring but I would bet between the expansion draft looming and the stoppage in play combined with the cap flattening we will see a compliance buyout period. It is almost a certainty.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

He isn't retiring but I would bet between the expansion draft looming and the stoppage in play combined with the cap flattening we will see a compliance buyout period. It is almost a certainty.

They've already agreed to the return to play and a CBA extension. There has been zero mention of compliance buyouts happening.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

He isn't retiring but I would bet between the expansion draft looming and the stoppage in play combined with the cap flattening we will see a compliance buyout period. It is almost a certainty.

I read somewhere that this idea was already rejected by owners and players alike. Sorry I don't have a link, so grain of salt time...

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

They've already agreed to the return to play and a CBA extension. There has been zero mention of compliance buyouts happening.

Those have absolutely zero to do with compliance buyouts. Those would be announced after the playoffs. The CBA has no relevance at all to the topic.

[Toonage]

1. Lucic mentioned wanting to quit when discussing his time with Peters behind the bench, not the rest of the season to this point where he was having a great time by all accounts playing with Ryan & Dube with his buddy Ward behind the bench
2. No compliance buyouts until the next CBA potentially. Lucic will be long gone by then
3. Even if there were compliance buyouts, most owners wouldn't be looking that direction considering they've already lost millions due to the pandemic. Why throw another $5M or so away just to hand that much or more over to the GM to make his next UFA signing?

Edit - I might be confusing compliance buyouts as well. Thought those were the variety where you aren't penalized against the cap. Still my point stands for any buyout, really.