Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Manhattanboy]

Please Rona Ambrose reconsider running.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Please Rona Ambrose reconsider running.

Now is the time to be led by someone named 'Rona.'

"I for one welcome our new Coronavirus Overlords..."

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by nik-

I, for one, am super impressed by Norway's moral stance taken after pumping a trillion oil dollars into their wealth fund and now that their production is declining.

I hear it said repeatedly that the world needs oil, and the last barrels should come from Alberta because of the environmental and human rights standards here.

I'd argue it should come from Norway:

[burn_this_city]

A good SAGD project like Cenovus Christina Lake is around 50kg/bbl

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

A good SAGD project like Cenovus Christina Lake is around 50kg/bbl

For sure, but the best here still lags a Norwegian offshore project by a good margin.

(Btw, I'm not saying "shut down Alberta oil", but specifically saying calling out Norway as hypocrites given the messages from the industry here seems.... hypocritical )

[burn_this_city]

The difference between their best and ours is basically 5-10% of the total emissions from that barrel (500kg/bbl)

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I hear it said repeatedly that the world needs oil, and the last barrels should come from Alberta because of the environmental and human rights standards here.

I'd argue it should come from Norway:

Ekofisk is down to 127000 barrels a day. So that might be a problem

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

This new loans package with the blackmail clause that they can decide on whether you survive or not based on your climate plan is getting a lot of heat out there. Its equivalent to blackmail.

Instead there's a constant assault by politicians who don't say shyte about Saudi Arabia and Venezuela's and the US' and Russia's low environmental standards in terms of oil and gas production. Until a Justin Trudeau or the environmental groups stand in front of those bulldozers, what they say is somewhat meaningless to me as they're going after us because we're all too concerned with being nice about it.

I have not seen the details so don't know if this loan package is aimed at operators rather than the service industry (I hope not, it's the service industry that is in danger of disappearing) but if service companies are expected to come up with corporate climate plans that will be a near impossible task and therefore make these companies ineligible for any aid (??)

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1261045935888642048

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Bunk

^ Is this us getting unfairly targeted for political reasons, or us (our companies and governments) having underreacted to the imperative of emissions reductions and the threat of Climate Change?

Unfairly for political and practical reasons. It's practically easy business wise and politically expedient for fund managers to target Canadian oil sands companies.

1. There's only 4 Canadian oil companies that probably meet their prior investment criteria. Coming up with a rigorous scientific framework and setting emissions targets to qualify for investments would be too difficult due to lack of comparability and reporting issues and probably runs the risk of excluding too many companies and asset classes to invest in. Therefore this way the fund can continue to have exposure to the asset class (Oil and gas) and benefit from it's returns while also being able to tell the activist crowd they are responding to them.

2. Canada's own government doesn't stand up for these companies so there's absolutely no backlash politically from singling out Canadian companies rather than other oil companies in other countries that have similar emissions profiles.

Therefore in summation it's a politically expedient way to grandstand on an issue without really sacrificing business objectives.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

2. Canada's own government doesn't stand up for these companies so there's absolutely no backlash politically from singling out Canadian companies rather than other oil companies in other countries that have similar emissions profiles.

.

This is a major consideration. Hell, Trudeau practically agreed with them. A different PM would have publicly denounced them, and might have even targeted Norwegian imports in retaliation (not that there is much).

Call out Exxon or CNOOC like this, and you can guarantee those governments wouldn't respond kindly.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

This is a major consideration. Hell, Trudeau practically agreed with them. A different PM would have publicly denounced them, and might have even targeted Norwegian imports in retaliation (not that there is much).

Call out Exxon or CNOOC like this, and you can guarantee those governments wouldn't respond kindly.

Funny you mention Exxon. If you're Norges Bank, your policy says you can own Exxon, but not Imperial, even though Exxon owns 70% of Imperial!

Real reason they won't exclude Exxon is that Exxon makes up a big portion of many equity indices their sub portfolio's performance are bench-marked against. So if the fund banned Exxon and Exxon stock outperforms the market, all of a sudden their performance looks poor relative to the index. That's a policy that's not going to fly, so why not go after the easy targets? That's basically what all this amounts to. Grandstanding for publicity.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

A good SAGD project like Cenovus Christina Lake is around 50kg/bbl

The Johan Sverdrup field is powered by power from shore, which means that the field has the lowest CO2 emissions from production of any other oil and gas field in the world. The average emissions from oil and gas production from Johan Sverdrup are only 0.67 kg CO2 per barrel. By comparison, the average emissions from fields on the Norwegian continental shelf are 9 kg CO2 per barrel, and the corresponding figure for emissions globally is 18 kg CO2 per barrel.

https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-d...p/climate.html

"It is preferable that the last barrel in that transition period comes from a stable, reliable liberal democracy with among the highest environmental, human-rights and labour standards on earth."

-Jason Kenney


I'm truly not trying to #### on Canada's energy industry. I think we should absolutely strive for energy independence and stop importing foreign oil. I also think the rhetoric from the lobby groups here have backfired immensely.

[Izzle]

Womp womp...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6956403/j...e-xl-pipeline/

Kenney's $1.5 billion gamble oops.

So do we support trump now lol?

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[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Izzle

Womp womp...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6956403/j...e-xl-pipeline/

Kenney's $1.5 billion gamble oops.

So do we support trump now lol?

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It's a win-win; if Trump gets reelected we get Keystone, if Biden wins, he badly damages American oil and gas making it a major importer again.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by accord1999

It's a win-win; if Trump gets reelected we get Keystone, if Biden wins, he badly damages American oil and gas making it a major importer again.

Biden won’t damage US oil and gas. Hell use keystone as a symbolic sacrifice just like Obama did while allowing full build out of US pipelines and fields. It’s what smart countries do, look after their own interest first, but of course as Canadians we’re too smart and evolved for that. Looks like we’re cheering for a Trump win. There’s also a chance that this is pandering, my understanding is that the presidential permit is only necessary for the border crossing. That’s the segment they’re installing right now, so if that’s already complete the power of the per it might be nil. It would make sense why they started with that right away. I’d also hope that both kenney and trans Canada had a plan in mind in the very likely scenario that Biden won and came out against the pipeline that his dog#### administration already cancelled.

[Izzle]

What if Kenney didn't have a plan?

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[Mayo]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Biden won’t damage US oil and gas. Hell use keystone as a symbolic sacrifice just like Obama did while allowing full build out of US pipelines and fields. It’s what smart countries do, look after their own interest first, but of course as Canadians we’re too smart and evolved for that. Looks like we’re cheering for a Trump win. There’s also a chance that this is pandering, my understanding is that the presidential permit is only necessary for the border crossing. That’s the segment they’re installing right now, so if that’s already complete the power of the per it might be nil. It would make sense why they started with that right away. I’d also hope that both kenney and trans Canada had a plan in mind in the very likely scenario that Biden won and came out against the pipeline that his dog#### administration already cancelled.

I don’t think it matters much even if we get Keystone in. With no hope for additional pipelines thereafter, there’s no growth potential in Canada, and there will be no further investment.

Calgary is going to go the way of Detroit unless we can get some competency in our federal leadership and secure future market access.

Or wait did I forget about the thousands that are going to flock from sunny California and Denver to work in our thriving tech and films industries

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Izzle

What if Kenney didn't have a plan?

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Then that would be bad and dumb of him.

Not sure why you’re celebrating this, presuming you’re an Albertan Obama’s decision in 2015 has made our province ostensibly worse off, and Biden’s quashing would prolong that pain for decades.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Izzle

What if Kenney didn't have a plan?

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I don't necessarily agree, but I think the position is that the Federal Government has turned pipelines into more of a public good rather than a private enterprise. As such, no pipeline has a chance without a government behind it, and unfortunately, that means Alberta is going to bankroll and where necessary, use provincial powers to fight back (or deflect attention). Whether they can do it competently is another matter.

By Biden making this clearly political, he's inviting a claim through the WTO because its clearly political and discriminatory.