Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Canadianman]

the whole stock market is friggin' insane right now.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Ya, I don't get Tesla in this market. They've lost all the benefit vs gas due to prices being cratered for the foreseeable future. And no one is buying cars right now, and many won't have the money to do so after. All the other auto makers are tanking. Why are they worth what they were before?

They are the most ? Popular stock for young casual investors. It’s almost a cult

[flylock shox]

It looks totally irrational to me. Lots of FOMO trading happening I reckon. I just pur in sell orders for a handful of stocks I picked up on the cheap the last couple of weeks. I'm expecting some or all of them to plummet again tomorrow and will consider using the money pocketed to buy them again.

Some of these stocks are 90% back to where they started, which in most cases makes no sense.

[Table 5]

After the US economic news in the AM, I was expecting a pull back. Instead I see that my portfolio shot up 10% today.

LOL ok then.

[Slava]

Alright, I'll play devils advocate. Let's say that you're investing in ABC Corp. and they make a good widget. Like most companies, ABC has been hit by this pandemic, and sales are virtually zero. But people love the widgets and eventually they'll come back. You're thinking of investing now because the price is cheap and you don't need the cash for decades.

Now, you're going through and doing some due diligence. ABC is a great company, long-term, and maybe not a great company short-term. They've got cash and aren't going bankrupt, but widget sales might be poor until the fall or a kind of ambiguous date in the next few months. You're being cautious, so you estimate the earnings at basically zero and anything is a positive surprise. Now...the economy is reopening early, and presumably widget sales are coming earlier than expected. Clearly you'd be willing to pay more for the widget-maker now? So, that's the first point.

Second, let's say that widget sales really are zero until "the fall". Then they take a while to get back and the next thing you know it's been a year of dreadful sales. It depends on how you make investment decisions, but if you're using some kind of DCF model (discounted cash flow), then you're valuing a perpetuity. If you're valuing a perpetuity, one years earnings (which would be incredibly devastating for the economy as a whole, btw) just isn't as impactful as you might think.

Third, and this is the least scientific, is that people have been constantly rewarded for the past decade of "BTFD" (buy the dip) thinking. It hasn't mattered about fundamentals, or things like that. You buy the dip and you get rewarded. There are a whole pile of investors who know nothing else, in all honesty.

And finally, before the defence rests, I'll just point out that the fed has pumped TRILLIONS into the economy and markets. It's an astounding figure, to the point where they could buy so-called "high yield" bonds. The fed has openly contemplated taking equity positions in energy companies in the US. These measures are on top of measures they've been taking for basically the past decade! One day, there could be consequences for that, and we should probably be concerned about that. But the one consequence today is that the stock market loves it.

tldr; "The market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent" JM Keynes.

[rvd123]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Ya, I don't get Tesla in this market. They've lost all the benefit vs gas due to prices being cratered for the foreseeable future. And no one is buying cars right now, and many won't have the money to do so after. All the other auto makers are tanking. Why are they worth what they were before?

Tesla is not a car company.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by rvd123

Tesla is not a car company.

This is the only way to attempt to rationalize the absurd valuation. Treat it as a tech company. But even then I don't see it. They make battery walls and solar panels. They are in essence a manufacturing company led by a very strange, possible mad man. Somebody on another board said the only reason the stock is where it's at is because it's the flavour of the day for young people to buy. Not sure I buy that either.

[Jason14h]

To add one more thing to Slava- similar to Buy The Dip

A lot of people were already holding Cash thinking the market was over heated. That cash has come back into play. Coupled with the governments cash influxes, that’s a massive capital influx

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

It looks totally irrational to me. Lots of FOMO trading happening I reckon. I just pur in sell orders for a handful of stocks I picked up on the cheap the last couple of weeks. I'm expecting some or all of them to plummet again tomorrow and will consider using the money pocketed to buy them again.

Some of these stocks are 90% back to where they started, which in most cases makes no sense.

Yeah. I put money from my heloc into the market in late March. That's all out now, and I'm back to 10% cash.

If even one US state backs down after reopening due to more cases the market will be in tough.

[wwkayaker]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

To add one more thing to Slava- similar to Buy The Dip

A lot of people were already holding Cash thinking the market was over heated. That cash has come back into play. Coupled with the governments cash influxes, that’s a massive capital influx

How do you know a lot of people were holding cash? Is there a source or is this your hunch? I know some guys like Buffett and Pabrai were holding cash as they were public with this info. And how do you know the percentage of cash on the sidelines that has been put into the market?

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

To add one more thing to Slava- similar to Buy The Dip

A lot of people were already holding Cash thinking the market was over heated. That cash has come back into play. Coupled with the governments cash influxes, that’s a massive capital influx

I think you could probably describe me as one of those (which is why I was putting some money in over the past few weeks).



The trouble is, if you (like me) thought the market was overheated before, you definitely think it's inflated - or at least a lot of it is - after today's little rally. This is why I expect to see a big drop again either tomorrow or by end of day Monday.

[wwkayaker]

I put money into the market but have since pulled out most of it. I’m not 100% cash either.

Howard Marks made a comment that resonated with me. "We're only down 15% from the all-time high of February 19," the investor said, referring to the S&P 500. "It seems to me the world is more than 15% screwed up."

It seems his thinking has changed to be a bit more positive since he made this comment. Basically, his message was, at the time of the interview, stocks were cheaper and less risky so people could buy some but not spend all the cash they were holding.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-4-1029111158

[Johnny199r]

I bought about 10k into XAW today. A 20% discount from 2 months ago.

Will the stock market dip lower in a few weeks? Maybe.

Will the markets be higher 20 years from now? Yup.

Keep your money in the market.

[Johnny199r]

double post

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

I bought about 10k into XAW today. A 20% discount from 2 months ago..

Been trying to add to my position all week but have been too aggressive on my bid and have yet to get it filled.

[manwiches]

Drone companies are literally flying right now. VISL and UAVS are with massive gains this morning. UAVS with YE results and Business Update, with the rumored Amazon partnership.

I was tempted to get out yesterday, but I'm in for the ride this morning.

*Update*. well this aged poorly. lol. The rumored partnership was not Amazon, but a hemp company. lol. My stop loss kicked me out before it halted on the drop. Thankfully I cashed out a good amount near the peak. Should have cut my losses sooner though. oh well. Onto the next.

[OMG!WTF!]

I rarely investigate stocks beyond a quick look at a headline if it's available on my trading platform. But I decided to check out a biotech stock on my list today just to see if it was coronavirus related. It's not. They just cured leukemia so they're up a lot. And it turns out a guy I went to high school with is the president, ceo and cso. Now I feel like a total loser. Please sir...may I buy a small portion of your company? The kid was a dork too. I think he was playing army all through high school, walking around like he was marching all the time. I'd have voted him most likely to be a weirdo sitting at a computer pretending to buy stocks while playing computer games and posting on random forums.

[wwkayaker]

The rumored partnership was not Amazon, but a hemp company. lol[/QUOTE]

Is this related to the ceos daughter who ‘accidentally’ posted a pic or video?

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by wwkayaker

The rumored partnership was not Amazon, but a hemp company. lol

Is this related to the ceos daughter who ‘accidentally’ posted a pic or video?[/QUOTE]

Yep. But it worked out. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[TorqueDog]

This idiot is going to get himself massively fined or arrested by the SEC. They've already warned him previously.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1256239815256797184
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/tesl...ares-fall.html