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Old 04-10-2020, 10:36 PM   #121
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Old 04-11-2020, 12:36 PM   #122
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Is that the IMHE University of Washington one? I'd be kind of skeptical of anything they're putting out. Their model was updated for Italy a day or two ago and predicted 335 deaths today; the real number was 70% higher at 570. For Spain they predicted 372 deaths on the 9th and 304 today. The actual numbers were more than double the estimates at 655 on the 9th and 634 today. If their model is that far off 1-2 days into the future it's essentially worthless.

They're also projecting ~50 deaths per day in Italy 10 days from now; cutting daily deaths by 90% in 10 days seems hopelessly optimistic
The accuracy of these models is more about trend lines and the UW model is being touted by many experts. I don’t know about looking for accuracy by day.

They do have deaths in Italy’s getting near zero by the end of the month. So we’ll see about that. The daily deaths in Italy really decreased and now leveled off last few days. I wonder how much of that is counting nursing home deaths at once.
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:11 AM   #123
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I'd like to know what he was treated with? I realize there's a lot of rumour and conjecture here, but for a guy to go into ICU and then come out doesn't seem to be the norm. Clearly they used some drug therapy, and proven or not it seems to have had a positive effect?
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:19 AM   #124
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I'd like to know what he was treated with? I realize there's a lot of rumour and conjecture here, but for a guy to go into ICU and then come out doesn't seem to be the norm. Clearly they used some drug therapy, and proven or not it seems to have had a positive effect?
We are talking about a world leader here, so what you propose is entirely possible I guess. But more than likely, someone in his position may be admitted into ICU (which is probably not the ICU you and I would go into) with symptoms far less than you or I would be admitted into ICU for. So in essence, they really are saying that they wanted to monitor him around the clock with a dedicated nurse, in a private room, with all equipment that may be necessary, no matter how remote the chance of use, at arms length. He probably just got better. But that's just IMHO.
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:15 PM   #125
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I'd like to know what he was treated with? I realize there's a lot of rumour and conjecture here, but for a guy to go into ICU and then come out doesn't seem to be the norm. Clearly they used some drug therapy, and proven or not it seems to have had a positive effect?
If you think the PM of the UK is getting an experimental drug trial after 12 hours in the ICU, and you think that trail was successful with 24 hours..
You are revealing just how little you understand about pharmaceuticals,

That is orders of magnitude crazier than thinking they were being overly cautious with a VIP patient.
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:34 PM   #126
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Johnson himself has said it was 50/50 whether he would make it on the first night as part of his eulogy for his nursing staff, now how much of this is true and how much him bigging up his illness is hard to say
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Old 04-13-2020, 06:39 AM   #127
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If you think the PM of the UK is getting an experimental drug trial after 12 hours in the ICU, and you think that trail was successful with 24 hours..
You are revealing just how little you understand about pharmaceuticals,

That is orders of magnitude crazier than thinking they were being overly cautious with a VIP patient.
It's not that I think he was given an experimental drug, but thanks for the shot. What I'm curious about is how he made the recovery. A guys who isn't young, doesn't appear to be in the greatest physical shape ever and has a rapidly deteriorating condition where he ends up in ICU. Then he does a U-turn and is fine.

Of course, that's the immune system and it obviously happens. We get sick and recover. So, naturally in the midst of a global pandemic, people including me are going to be curious to know how he recovered and whether there's anything to be learned here. It's not exactly some far-fetched conspiracy theory to wonder about that.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:35 AM   #128
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https://apnews.com/f24cb7f32b3e10f964efca2c0eab4ccb

"Boris Johnson’s spokesman says the British prime minister is continuing his recovery from COVID-19 and, on the advice of his doctors, is “not immediately returning to work.”

...

James Slack confirmed that Johnson has now tested negative for the coronavirus and denied that the government had downplayed the seriousness of Johnson’s condition."
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:01 AM   #129
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Interesting that most studies show that the tests are coming up around 30% false negative.
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:09 AM   #130
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It's not that I think he was given an experimental drug, but thanks for the shot. What I'm curious about is how he made the recovery. A guys who isn't young, doesn't appear to be in the greatest physical shape ever and has a rapidly deteriorating condition where he ends up in ICU. Then he does a U-turn and is fine.

Of course, that's the immune system and it obviously happens. We get sick and recover. So, naturally in the midst of a global pandemic, people including me are going to be curious to know how he recovered and whether there's anything to be learned here. It's not exactly some far-fetched conspiracy theory to wonder about that.


Seems like he is following a pretty normal curve for recovering from this thing.

Got sick, symptoms persisted, admitted to hospital, went to ICU for a couple days (sans ventilator), got it under control, discharged 3 days after that, at home recovering before going back to work.

Does that not seem entirely normal as a course for infection and recovery for this thing?

Just not sure what you see as beyond the norm here.
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:26 AM   #131
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Interesting that most studies show that the tests are coming up around 30% false negative.
If I recall correctly since the start they've been needing two negative tests in a row to declare someone as recovered.
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:38 AM   #132
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Seems like he is following a pretty normal curve for recovering from this thing.

Got sick, symptoms persisted, admitted to hospital, went to ICU for a couple days (sans ventilator), got it under control, discharged 3 days after that, at home recovering before going back to work.

Does that not seem entirely normal as a course for infection and recovery for this thing?

Just not sure what you see as beyond the norm here.
Maybe it is the normal course? I'm definitely not a medical professional. But one day we're hearing how his condition is terrible and he's taken a turn for the worse (enough to be in ICU). Now he's fine and recovering. It's obviously great news, whereas a lot of people aren't making that recovery. So all I'm asking is whether he received anything or they found some therapies that seemed to help out.
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:48 AM   #133
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Testing negative and recovering from Covid19 doesn't mean he won't have long lasting effects of it.

Besides rumours we never heard of his condition or how grave it was; just matter of fact announcements of being admitted to hospital and transferred to the ICU. Obviously both those things are terrible but as a world leader they could've been extra cautious. Perhaps you're right but unless he was on deaths door I don't believe they would've been using Boris Johnson as a Guinea pig
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:51 AM   #134
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Odds are if he had been sicker than they were saying and needed to be intubated, he wouldn't be bouncing back this quickly. I'm not a doctor, but from what I have seen it is a long recovery, and you aren't likely to just be on it for a few days. So the stories he was way sicker than they are telling us don't really compute.
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:51 AM   #135
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So....let me understand this correctly. What you're saying is....Boris Got Out?
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:55 AM   #136
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Odds are if he had been sicker than they were saying and needed to be intubated, he wouldn't be bouncing back this quickly. I'm not a doctor, but from what I have seen it is a long recovery, and you aren't likely to just be on it for a few days. So the stories he was way sicker than they are telling us don't really compute.
Considering they were telling people it was just mild and then a day later he was in the ICU, I don't see how this really is true.
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Old 04-13-2020, 11:55 AM   #137
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Maybe it is the normal course? I'm definitely not a medical professional. But one day we're hearing how his condition is terrible and he's taken a turn for the worse (enough to be in ICU). Now he's fine and recovering. It's obviously great news, whereas a lot of people aren't making that recovery. So all I'm asking is whether he received anything or they found some therapies that seemed to help out.
I think its a very normal curve for those that recover...its just we dont get bombarded with those stories day after day.

This thing gets some people sick, no question, but it also gets defeated 15 times to every one of those who have to be hospitalized (Here anyhow).

So I think that tells us that beyond the lack of vaccine, its decimating effects on the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, and its outrageous contagious abilities....its very much like other strains of influenza as far as how the body deals with it.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:30 PM   #138
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Considering they were telling people it was just mild and then a day later he was in the ICU, I don't see how this really is true.
Why? We know it can go from mild to severe pretty quickly. And the ICU isn't a treatment someone receives, it's a level of care that can be provided. So the ICU offers the availability of tools, should he need it. Maybe they over-reacted bringing him into the ICU, but if he had died, don't you think they'd ask why he wasn't put in the ICU sooner? It was probably just a prudent step.


I mean, sure, they could be lying and he was intubated, but I don't really see how that makes a load of sense int he timeline.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:34 PM   #139
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Why? We know it can go from mild to severe pretty quickly. And the ICU isn't a treatment someone receives, it's a level of care that can be provided. So the ICU offers the availability of tools, should he need it. Maybe they over-reacted bringing him into the ICU, but if he had died, don't you think they'd ask why he wasn't put in the ICU sooner? It was probably just a prudent step.


I mean, sure, they could be lying and he was intubated, but I don't really see how that makes a load of sense int he timeline.
I don't think that needing to be intubated is a requirement for him being sicker than they were saying. It seems he was clearly sicker than he was letting on. His entire stance was built around it not being a big deal, why would they try to subtly play up how sick he was? Garnering sympathy now just makes his previous comments look more ridiculous.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:37 PM   #140
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I don't think that needing to be intubated is a requirement for him being sicker than they were saying. It seems he was clearly sicker than he was letting on. His entire stance was built around it not being a big deal, why would they try to subtly play up how sick he was? Garnering sympathy now just makes his previous comments look more ridiculous.
I'm not sure he needs help looking ridiculous.
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