Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Envitro]

Are we not able to make an "Energy Independence" policy?

Canadian Oil for Canadians? Why are we importing so much oil and gas? Don't we make enough??

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Envitro

Are we not able to make an "Energy Independence" policy?

Canadian Oil for Canadians? Why are we importing so much oil and gas? Don't we make enough??

Of course we could. But our government has decided not to do this at all costs. Quebecers have no appetite for pipelines but are more than happy to have Algerian tankers in the St. Lawrence. It would definitely be possible but will never happen under the current party.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Envitro

Are we not able to make an "Energy Independence" policy?

Canadian Oil for Canadians? Why are we importing so much oil and gas? Don't we make enough??

Blocked pipelines to the East.


Quebec refuses to cooperate and we all know how Quebec votes go.


The Bloc and Quebec's premiere are morally opposed to Alberta Oil.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by nik-

It's not going to matter. So much oil is going to flood the no-demand market in the next weeks/months that that resulting glut will suppress prices for years.

It's over.

We will have to see if high cost regions shut in a bunch of production. The volume that will fill in Q1/2 could be close to 1B barrels.

[Slava]

Futures (sorry, I'm a degenerate) are up by about 14% for WTI now. Crazy.

[guzzy]

To stimulate the economy on the back end of this, Trudeau should use the emergency measures act to build energy east. Don't even have consultations, don't let Quebec or indigenous bands have a say in the matter. These were already done with the original plan for Energy East.

Build a 5 year plan to be energy independent with tax free incentives or loans for the refineries in the east to handle heavier crude. It isn't as expensive as an upgrade as many call it. If you do it properly you could start converting some western refineries to partial upgraders so lighter crude could ship east. This would create thousands of jobs across the country and stimulate the economy immediately.

This is our government's (all governments regardless of party) biggest fail over the last 30/40 years. Effort and money could have created an energy independent nation that wouldn't have to worry about $7.50/bbl WCS while importing Saudi and American oil for the east. This nation is going to be in financial chaos when we see the end of this. Our energy/resources sector will be decimated, possibly eliminated. Canadian's don't understand the true sting this will cause until it is gone. Those jobs, revenues, tax dollars and royalties have been the largest contributor to the Canadian economy over the last 40 years.

But let's be realistic, Trudeau doesn't have the balls nor care enough. Quebec would do everything in their power to watch Alberta fail.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by guzzy

To stimulate the economy on the back end of this, Trudeau should use the emergency measures act to build energy east. Don't even have consultations, don't let Quebec or indigenous bands have a say in the matter. These were already done with the original plan for Energy East.

Build a 5 year plan to be energy independent with tax free incentives or loans for the refineries in the east to handle heavier crude. It isn't as expensive as an upgrade as many call it. If you do it properly you could start converting some western refineries to partial upgraders so lighter crude could ship east. This would create thousands of jobs across the country and stimulate the economy immediately.

This is our government's (all governments regardless of party) biggest fail over the last 30/40 years. Effort and money could have created an energy independent nation that wouldn't have to worry about $7.50/bbl WCS while importing Saudi and American oil for the east. This nation is going to be in financial chaos when we see the end of this. Our energy/resources sector will be decimated, possibly eliminated. Canadian's don't understand the true sting this will cause until it is gone. Those jobs, revenues, tax dollars and royalties have been the largest contributor to the Canadian economy over the last 40 years.

But let's be realistic, Trudeau doesn't have the balls nor care enough. Quebec would do everything in their power to watch Alberta fail.

Good luck with this. I would expect that even with the emergency act, a Judge would take about 5 seconds to strike down its usage to build a pipeline or support an industry.


At the same time, its easy to say make the government pay for it, but to be honest after this Virus thing this government is going to be massively in debt and with the price of Oil Most of the Oil Companies are probably going to significantly slow down their production.


The time to get Energy East built in the name of independence was years ago when you had private companies willing to pay for it. The barn door was left open the horses fled and then some idiots set fire to the barn.


Also you're right about one thing. Trudeau and his government would never do it, wouldn't be interested in it, it would kill his voter base, make sure that he never gets his precious seat on the UN etc.



Also can you imagine the protests if they just tried to ram through a pipeline? I mean it would be amazing and the government still hasn't show the will to enforce the law.

[CaptainCrunch]

I was thinking last night that with the Oil Crash and the Virus, the old equalization formula spreadsheet is going to probably error out and crash, think division by 0.



I wonder if Quebec is prepared to go with a lot less next year.

[guzzy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Good luck with this. I would expect that even with the emergency act, a Judge would take about 5 seconds to strike down its usage to build a pipeline or support an industry.


At the same time, its easy to say make the government pay for it, but to be honest after this Virus thing this government is going to be massively in debt and with the price of Oil Most of the Oil Companies are probably going to significantly slow down their production.


The time to get Energy East built in the name of independence was years ago when you had private companies willing to pay for it. The barn door was left open the horses fled and then some idiots set fire to the barn.


Also you're right about one thing. Trudeau and his government would never do it, wouldn't be interested in it, it would kill his voter base, make sure that he never gets his precious seat on the UN etc.



Also can you imagine the protests if they just tried to ram through a pipeline? I mean it would be amazing and the government still hasn't show the will to enforce the law.

I never said the government should pay for it, just provide tax incentives for refineries to upgrade to handle heavier crude.

I realize this would never happen but if the government doesn't put on it's big boy pants after this pandemic, we are closer to being Venezuala 2019 than Canada 2010. The debt load we are accumulating, the elimination of jobs. The government needs bold responses to stimulate the economy.

[guzzy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I was thinking last night that with the Oil Crash and the Virus, the old equalization formula spreadsheet is going to probably error out and crash, think division by 0.



I wonder if Quebec is prepared to go with a lot less next year.

I agree. I am sure Trudeau will still find a way to send Alberta money to Quebec.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by guzzy

I never said the government should pay for it, just provide tax incentives for refineries to upgrade to handle heavier crude.

I realize this would never happen but if the government doesn't put on it's big boy pants after this pandemic, we are closer to being Venezuala 2019 than Canada 2010. The debt load we are accumulating, the elimination of jobs. The government needs bold responses to stimulate the economy.

At this point the only way the government is going to get anything built is if they finance. Tax incentives are irrelevant at this point and pretty much all of the investment dollars have left on a jet plane and they're not coming back.


Nobody is going to invest in this country in terms of oil and gas, why fight with the protesters and moving goalpost regulatory conditions and things like down stream effects on Oil and Gas but not on other industries.


Forget it, its over. We all need to learn how to make phone apps.


And accept foreign oil and gas.

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by Envitro

Are we not able to make an "Energy Independence" policy?

Canadian Oil for Canadians? Why are we importing so much oil and gas? Don't we make enough??

I had this debate with a friend once which stemmed from an Energy East debate.

He said that energy independence would actually be illegal for Canada at an international level (I think he said it was NATO rules). This is because would then be immune to embargoes or something and we be significantly able to extend our ability to draw out a war. So Canada would not be allowed to attain energy independence according to him.

We laughed at the idea that Canada would engage in a drawn out war, but we also agreed that NATO would not allow it. Otherwise other nefarious countries may use Canada as a reason to attain energy independence and really start some nasty stuff.

[Bill Bumface]

Prepare for info via dubious sources (although nothing shocking):

A coworker is friends with a significant player in moving US crude to the Gulf Coast and it's global export, and word on the street is the Saudi's end game here is to crush the US and Canadian shale operators. They expect it's a house of cards ready to tumble, and then allow them to capture more returns on their reserves.

[indes]

Hmmm I wonder if those dubious sources have heard anything about WMDs there

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Prepare for info via dubious sources (although nothing shocking):

A coworker is friends with a significant player in moving US crude to the Gulf Coast and it's global export, and word on the street is the Saudi's end game here is to crush the US and Canadian shale operators. They expect it's a house of cards ready to tumble, and then allow them to capture more returns on their reserves.

Ok? I think everyone and their dog knows this already. They are doubling up on the virus concerns to kill the north american O&G market.

[Vansmack]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Prepare for info via dubious sources (although nothing shocking):

A coworker is friends with a significant player in moving US crude to the Gulf Coast and it's global export, and word on the street is the Saudi's end game here is to crush the US and Canadian shale operators. They expect it's a house of cards ready to tumble, and then allow them to capture more returns on their reserves.

This is obvious. The question is whether oyb the Russians and the Saudis have an appetite to live with these prices longterm. The US produces roughly 15MM bbl/day, if that dropped by 5 to 10MM things change in a hurry.

Also, look at Nat gas futures, up most 50% in line with the timeline for LNG Canada. It's easy to be a pessimist but it's way too early to draw conclusions.

[burn_this_city]

Texas Railroad Commission considering managing production.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Ok? I think everyone and their dog knows this already. They are doubling up on the virus concerns to kill the north american O&G market.

Well neat, they should tell the news outlets then I guess.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-con...ff-11584636054

https://news.yahoo.com/why-russia-sa...100344491.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...hes-industry-/

etc.

[Lubicon]

US shale producers are like cockroaches. Last time the Saudi's tried this they decimated the North American industry and as soon as prices went up they came right back. It will be painful here but if the long term strategy is for them to permanently put the shale producers out of business I'm not sure that works.

Plus how long can they go with low prices, they have an government that relies on oil revenue for the vast majority of its revenues for the country as a whole. I had heard a few years ago that their spending promises to the people would require $100+ oil to fund.

Nobody wins in a price war.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Vansmack

This is obvious. The question is whether oyb the Russians and the Saudis have an appetite to live with these prices longterm. The US produces roughly 15MM bbl/day, if that dropped by 5 to 10MM things change in a hurry.

Energy indepedence is a key policy of the Trump Administration. I would think they would unwilling to see domestic production drop 1/3 to 2/3 and making the US a major importer again.