Coronavirus and sports

[Duffalufagus]

The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.

Hopefully not. Are you using Italy numbers to base this?

Italy is the size of New Mexico and has 60 million. New Mexico has 2 million. I can see it being a problem in bigger American cities but not America as a whole.

[rohara66]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

Sold! Bet the farm on the over.

[Aleks]

Originally Posted by CSharp

My co-worker caught the H1N1 virus back in the day when the Bird Flu struck North America and he didn't even travel outside of Canada. Funny thing was, his wife didn't catch it. And he said it was just like catching the cold.

Excellent anecdote. Take it from me, who was working as a flight medic during H1N1, that your buddy saying it was "a cold" is a pretty stark contrast to the individuals I dealt with. This is the misinformation that can make people complacent, or even defiant in an effort to prove that "its nothing". Absolutely there will be varying degrees of severity, nobody is disputing that. But until you know what YOUR body will do, why be dumb about it? The fact is there ARE people who are quite sick, they are not easy patients to manage and many of them do fail to survive, and if you compound that with unsustainable numbers of these people to where the point managing them becomes impossible, you're just as F'd. I'm healthy, I'm young, but I'm very much at risk in frontline healthcare, and there's not a chance I want to catch this because I know how this song plays out in a certain % of cases.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Hopefully not. Are you using Italy numbers to base this?

Italy is the size of New Mexico and has 60 million. New Mexico has 2 million. I can see it being a problem in bigger American cities but not America as a whole.

We’ll see. The coasts and big flyover cities will get hammered. Given the total lack of preparation on the front end, I would bet it has already spread all over the country.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by rohara66

Sold! Bet the farm on the over.

You’re free to bet the under.

People who think this is nothing to worry about are going to be the reason this thing spreads all over North America.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.

I think consensus is maybe 4,000 cases in US at this time, most of which are mild but also undetected. But it doubles to triples every week and US won't have full nationwide testing available for anywhere for 2-8 weeks. Unfortunately, when exponential growth is 100% per week, that 6 weeks is the difference between Korea (who has the problem under control) and Italy (which has done full scale lock downs and has a hospital system that is leaving old people and young people with preexisting conditions to die)

4,000 x (2^2 weeks) = 16,000 - no big deal
4,000 x (2^8 weeks) = 1,000,000 cases - near nationwide lock-downs are an inevitability unless they do aggressive social distancing

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

I think consensus is maybe 4,000 cases in US at this time, most of which are mild but also undetected. But it doubles to triples every week and US won't have full nationwide testing available for anywhere for 2-8 weeks. Unfortunately, when exponential growth is 100% per week, that 6 weeks is the difference between Korea (who has the problem under control) and Italy (which has done full scale lock downs and has a hospital system that is leaving old people and young people with preexisting conditions to die)

4,000 x (2^2 weeks) = 16,000 - no big deal
4,000 x (2^8 weeks) = 1,000,000 cases - near nationwide lock-downs are an inevitability unless they do aggressive social distancing

This is making the assumption that COVID-19 won't disappear with warmer weather like the flu does - which they don't know yet

We are currently in the late stages of flu season - if this virus has the same seasonality it could die off or at least slow to the point where it's manageable while they develop a vaccine

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Mayo

This is making the assumption that COVID-19 won't disappear with warmer weather like the flu does - which they don't know yet

We are currently in the late stages of flu season - if this virus has the same seasonality it could die off or at least slow to the point where it's manageable while they develop a vaccine

It's hitting some warm countries pretty hard right now, so I wouldn't be too hopeful. It could be a lack of built up immunity because it is new to humans, but it could also be one of many viruses that are not all that affected by climate.

But even with the flu, it doesn't disappear in the summer. It just shifts geography. Southern hemisphere countries tend to have spike flu seasons during what is our summer.

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's hitting some warm countries pretty hard right now, so I wouldn't be too hopeful. It could be a lack of built up immunity because it is new to humans, but it could also be one of many viruses that are not all that affected by climate.

But even with the flu, it doesn't disappear in the summer. It just shifts geography. Southern hemisphere countries tend to have spike flu seasons during what is our summer.

Which warm countries is it hitting hard?

If you look at the climate data of Milan - Wuhan - Tehran (the hardest hit centers) they are strikingly similar and all about to warm up significantly in the coming weeks

I'm hopeful it is suppressed through spring - but obviously no guarantees

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Mayo

Which warm countries is it hitting hard?

If you look at the climate data of Milan - Wuhan - Tehran (the hardest hit centers) they are strikingly similar and all about to warm up significantly in the coming weeks

I'm hopeful it is suppressed through spring - but obviously no guarantees

I was thinking the same thing. It's interesting, India hasn't been hit hard at all and they're considerably warmer at this time of year. It's a very densely populated country that you'd think would be vulnerable, otherwise.

The map of incidents in Iran are all very concentrated in the north.

[greyshep]

Is this just becoming Corona thread #2? I thought the topic on this one was to discuss how the NHL is handling it?

I am admittedly a bit nervous about attending the game on Thursday. Anyone else?

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by greyshep

Is this just becoming Corona thread #2? I thought the topic on this one was to discuss how the NHL is handling it?

I am admittedly a bit nervous about attending the game on Thursday. Anyone else?

I wouldn't be. Not a big concern here yet. Wouldn't let paranoia get the best of you until there's definite reason for concern from health officials because of community spread.

[playmaker]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

I wouldn't be. Not a big concern here yet. Wouldn't let paranoia get the best of you until there's definite reason for concern from health officials because of community spread.

I think there is...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESx-DfFUcAAIK_n.jpg

[Reggie Dunlop]

The NHL (and individual owners) wouldn't have insurance for a canceled season, would they?
East and West coast cities, tourist traps like Las Vegas and transportation hubs like Chicago might be cluster points in a pandemic.

This thing could turn on a dime, as the situation changes. I like to err on the side of caution myself, and could see the NHL doing so.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.

Are you saying Trump has finally met his match? Frankly, I think you underestimate his base made up of hicks, deplorable's and just plain stupid's.

[transplant99]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1237709473701072897

[nfotiu]

This is going to start being a pretty bad look for the NHL/NBA/NCAA if smaller leagues are cancelling games or playing in empty stadiums, but the big money events keep playing in front of large crowds.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

This is going to start being a pretty bad look for the NHL/NBA/NCAA if smaller leagues are cancelling games or playing in empty stadiums, but the big money events keep playing in front of large crowds.

The NHL has never cared about bad publicity, why start now?

[Moneyhands23]

At the end of the day we are all going to be exposed. The exposure curve is the important thing. Cancelling large gatherings will be helpful to stop cases from spiking. A huge spike or mass exposure will overwhelm the medical system resulting in more deaths.

At this point it is just to late and we are unable to stop the global spread. Good thing it isn't a more lethal bug.

This is just my somewhat informed opinion. Obviously none of us can be sure. I still plan on travelling this spring and just doing my best to stay clean.