Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I don't know that saying he has the brain of a kiwi fruit or that his brain is non functioning on the ice are are warranted, and are cringe inducing commentaries imo.

These guys are regular people. 'thinking the game' in real time is probably the skill that most separates NHL players from almost NHL players.

I don't know that bennett not being the player we want him to be or having a different set of skills than the ones we want him to have are worth calling him dumb over.

For the purposes of discussion, I think it really detracts from peoples arguments.

Oh i've just been comparing his hockey IQ to a fruit for the past 6 months.

I don't think he is an idiot. Just a pretty poor hockey player who has some skills but can't perform on the ice.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

The Bennett conundrum is an interesting one. The advanced stats junkies like to point at unreliable data points to support the claim that Bennett is mis-used and abused by the hockey team. The eye testers point to the complete failure to produce and his inability to show anything that could be conflated with having a functioning brain on the ice. The stats that matter (goals, assists, and penalties leading to wins and losses) indicate a poor player and a poor investment. The ice time from the last three coaches paint a picture that tells you what they think of Bennett and his performance. Add in the inability of the Flames to find a suitor for the player seems to give you a clear indication what the league thinks of him as well - that being a lot less than what Treliving is trying to get back in trade, which certainly can only be a second rounder at best at this point. Tough to argue that Bennett is a player with untapped potential just waiting to break out. Bennett is what he is, and that is an overpaid 4th liner who sometimes manages to string together three or four games where he passes as a third liner.

Yet another over the top rebuttal huh?

Unreliable data points? How so? An independent person counts shot attempts and shot attempt precursors for every single team. The summary is a split between these events happening for and against every player on the ice.

There is nothing unreliable about it. It is clearly defined and counted by a neutral party.

Advanced stats could be better, and they will get better, but as it stands now it's even across all players in methodology and the conclusions are certainly directionally right ... better to have shots from in close go for you then against you when on the ice.

And honestly the advanced stats don't say Bennett is much more than he is ... though probably a third line guy instead of a fourth line guy ... which honestly is all the pro Bennett crowd seems to be arguing.

For forwards ...

He's 8th in CF% on the team
9th in CF60
8th in CA60

All suggest third line guy.

Other stats suggest you might get burned when you deal him ...

3rd in xGF% (this is the interesting one)
4th in HDCF%
5th in individual shots /60
5th in individual expected goals /60


He is what he is. Whether it's 80% bounces and 20% lack of finish, or 90% lack of finish and only 10% bounces the guy just doesn't get it done.

I'm ok with trading him, but the team should be aware of some of the interesting underlying numbers that suggest he could pop somewhere else with a change of scenery, different deployment, and better linemates.

That isn't pro Bennett ... it's just a look at numbers.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yet another over the top rebuttal huh?

Unreliable data points? How so? An independent person counts shot attempts and shot attempt precursors for every single team. The summary is a split between these events happening for and against every player on the ice.

There is nothing unreliable about it. It is clearly defined and counted by a neutral party.

Advanced stats could be better, and they will get better, but as it stands now it's even across all players in methodology and the conclusions are certainly directionally right ... better to have shots from in close go for you then against you when on the ice.

And honestly the advanced stats don't say Bennett is much more than he is ... though probably a third line guy instead of a fourth line guy ... which honestly is all the pro Bennett crowd seems to be arguing.

For forwards ...

He's 8th in CF% on the team
9th in CF60
8th in CA60

All suggest third line guy.

Other stats suggest you might get burned when you deal him ...

3rd in xGF% (this is the interesting one)
4th in HDCF%
5th in individual shots /60
5th in individual expected goals /60


He is what he is. Whether it's 80% bounces and 20% lack of finish, or 90% lack of finish and only 10% bounces the guy just doesn't get it done.

I'm ok with trading him, but the team should be aware of some of the interesting underlying numbers that suggest he could pop somewhere else with a change of scenery, different deployment, and better linemates.

That isn't pro Bennett ... it's just a look at numbers.

I think that is where we are at. Treliving looking for a team that thinks this way and therefore prepared to meet his asking price.

If it's not going to happen here, that's the next best alternative.

[united]

To add another element to the context that I feel is important given every five penalties drawn or taken results in about one goal for or against:

Last in penalty differential (raw) at -9, just ahead of Backlund at -8 then Jankowski at -4 with Rinaldo as the only other forward in the negative.

Last in penalty differential (per 60) at -0.83, way ahead of Jankowski at -0.39 and Backlund/Rinaldo at -0.38 with no other forwards in the negative.


Just numbers. This, in my opinion, is one of the more significant contributors to his lack of opportunity this season (and last).

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by united

To add another element to the context that I feel is important given every five penalties drawn or taken results in about one goal for or against:

Last in penalty differential (raw) at -9, just ahead of Backlund at -8 then Jankowski at -4 with Rinaldo as the only other forward in the negative.

Last in penalty differential (per 60) at -0.83, just ahead of Jankowski at -0.39 and Backlund/Rinaldo at -0.38 with no other forwards in the negative.


Just numbers. This, in my opinion, is one of the more significant contributors to his lack of opportunity this season (and last).

Agreed, and it's why his minutes and not necessarily his linemates, are the limitation.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Unreliable data points? How so? An independent person counts shot attempts and shot attempt precursors for every single team. The summary is a split between these events happening for and against every player on the ice.

Except methodology is inconsistent and not applied with any level of rigor. Hence, unreliable data points. I get that you love the "counting" stats, except that they are not consistent nor generate reliable data. Try to draw any sort of conclusion from these stats is useless as there are way too many variable left unaccounted for that clearly impact the quality of the data, and that is without looking at bias of those collecting the data. The data does not pass rigor. Never has and never will because there is no consistent application of method.

The only stat that really matters with with Sam Bennett is it is 100% lack of talent that is holding him back. He just doesn't have the skill to play anything but a 4th line role on a winning hockey team. Maybe a bottom feeder rolls the dice on him as a reclamation project and play him up the lineup, a la Yakupov, but no team who is trying to win a championship would have him on their roster in anything but a bottom line player, if he plays at all. I think Yakupov is a good trajectory for Bennett. He'll end up on another team with one last chance to show what he has, flame out, and be on his way to Europe to try and show some growth and earn another shot down the line.

[Tyler]

Sam Bennett needs better linemates!

Sam Bennett gets put on first line. Promptly demoted after one period because he is an absolutely brutal hockey player.

Oops.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Except methodology is inconsistent and not applied with any level of rigor. Hence, unreliable data points. I get that you love the "counting" stats, except that they are not consistent nor generate reliable data. Try to draw any sort of conclusion from these stats is useless as there are way too many variable left unaccounted for that clearly impact the quality of the data, and that is without looking at bias of those collecting the data. The data does not pass rigor. Never has and never will because there is no consistent application of method.

The only stat that really matters with with Sam Bennett is it is 100% lack of talent that is holding him back. He just doesn't have the skill to play anything but a 4th line role on a winning hockey team. Maybe a bottom feeder rolls the dice on him as a reclamation project and play him up the lineup, a la Yakupov, but no team who is trying to win a championship would have him on their roster in anything but a bottom line player, if he plays at all. I think Yakupov is a good trajectory for Bennett. He'll end up on another team with one last chance to show what he has, flame out, and be on his way to Europe to try and show some growth and earn another shot down the line.

Simply not true.

The methodology is consistent.

They are applied with a level of rigor ... as many of these independent sources actually contact each other when the data gets out of skew.

They aren't fans of any one particular team, so it's about as objective as you can get.

And finally ... talent isn't a stat.

I honestly think you just hate having additional data available that can pop a hole in your need for hyperbole. It was easier 20 years ago when you could just say Jeff Cowan is better than Chris Clark and there wasn't really any way to look into which guy was better other than the surface counting stats that didn't mean a whole lot for third and fourth liners.

What above in my post drove the need to attack underlying stats anyway? I was saying he was a third line guy with some intriguing data points that could suggest the team getting burned. That was it.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Beyond fancy stats, which place him as a middle six guy, I’d take a look at his linemates and productivity

Even strength
13% - Bennett-Janko-Rieder - 0 pts
12.1% - Bennett-Lucic-Ryan - 2 pts (18%)
8.1% - Bennett-Dube-Lucic - 3 pts (27%)
7.6% - Bennett-Mang-Ryan - 3 pts (27%)

What does this tell us? A few things.
Firstly 13% as a max time with any linemates means he is permanently in the blender.
Secondly, the Janko-Rieder-Bennett combination doesn’t seem to be terribly effective
The numbers suggest that Sam gets better results with other linemates.

Fun fact - his ESG/60 is .788 to Monahan’s .790
(where Monahan has elite playmaker Gaudreau setting him up)

Just some other interesting numbers to consider

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I think Bennett is a decent 3rd liner. Does that make me a hater or an apologist?

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

I think Bennett is a decent 3rd liner. Does that make me a hater or an apologist?

An apologist.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

^^I think you are wrong, but I like your conviction.

[Saqe]

I can't remember the last Flames player that has been analyzed as much as Bennett.

He has had years to develop his game, come to camp and blow people away. Force the coach to put him in the top six because he's too good to leave out. He hasn't done that. How is Bennett better in any meaningful way compared to his rookie year?

This over analyzing and going through every little statistic is really baffling. To me I see a player who looks pretty much the same and has had the same results year after year. There isn't some great mystery behind the numbers why Bennett never reached his potential.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Sam Bennett needs better linemates!

Sam Bennett gets put on first line. Promptly demoted after one period because he is an absolutely brutal hockey player.

Oops.

Like everything, there are extremists looking for attention (please see above) and the truth is always somewhere in the middle.

[868904]

I think the reclamation of Robbi Fabbri and Kevin Fiala's careers this year will help keep Bennett's value relatively high.

All 3 guys were 2014 first rounders who had some success with their drafted teams but has struggled in recent years.

Bennett is obviously looking at those two and thinking what a change of scenery might mean for him.

It's up to Tre to make a good deal, hopefully for a similar struggling young player with upside.

I'm almost certain Bennett will ask for a trade this Summer and even if he doesn't, the Flames might need his $2,550,000 cap space to go big game free agent hunting.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Tre doesn't have to make a deal though. Why do people think that we are reaching a point where something MUST happen with him.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Saqe

I can't remember the last Flames player that has been analyzed as much as Bennett.

He has had years to develop his game, come to camp and blow people away. Force the coach to put him in the top six because he's too good to leave out. He hasn't done that. How is Bennett better in any meaningful way compared to his rookie year?

This over analyzing and going through every little statistic is really baffling. To me I see a player who looks pretty much the same and has had the same results year after year. There isn't some great mystery behind the numbers why Bennett never reached his potential.

Lots of people think that

We know he hasn’t gotten consistent decent linemates since his rookie year and some think the organization has failed to develop an asset.

We know has gotten 3rd or 4th line results when deployed in a 3rd or 4th line capacity. That is not a surprise

It is absolutely not a great mystery that a guy deployed in the bottom six produces like a guy deployed in the bottom six. Lots less ice time and crappier linemates

What we don’t know is how he would do in a second line capacity because he has never really been deployed in that manner

I thought it was interesting that he is scoring even strength goals at the same rate as Monahan. He isn’t getting assists but Jankowski is a cream puff and Rieder has a shooting percentage of 5%, meantime Monahan has Gaudreau an elite playmaker

Why not take a closer look what at a player is or isn’t doing?

What would a line of Bennett Gaudreau and Lindholm look like?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by 868904

I think the reclamation of Robbi Fabbri and Kevin Fiala's careers this year will help keep Bennett's value relatively high.

All 3 guys were 2014 first rounders who had some success with their drafted teams but has struggled in recent years.

Bennett is obviously looking at those two and thinking what a change of scenery might mean for him.

It's up to Tre to make a good deal, hopefully for a similar struggling young player with upside.

I'm almost certain Bennett will ask for a trade this Summer and even if he doesn't, the Flames might need his $2,550,000 cap space to go big game free agent hunting.

I don't think those guys are comparable to bennett .

Fabbri's issues were always injuries. Blew out his knee is consecutive years iirc. Years of 37 points in 72 gp and 29 points in 51 gp, he's on track to match that this year with 31 points in 51 games again right now.

Fiala was always a good player. 48 point career high before this year.

IMO those are actually examples of guys that illustrate Bennett's lack of value, as he's never shown that kind of production in his D+5 season, he should be hitting career highs like those guys are, not career lows like he's currently projecting.

I don't know that it really makes sense to move bennett anymore except for the cap space, but that's only worth it to get a marquee player, not overpaying for different depth.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Tre doesn't have to make a deal though. Why do people think that we are reaching a point where something MUST happen with him.

If I was Bennett I would bet on myself and demand a trade

[Kovaz]

The interesting thing about Bennett is when you break down how goals are happening, he's right there with the top 6 in a lot of ways:

Individual Expected Goals / 60
1. Mangiapane (0.84)
2. Monahan (0.80)
3. Tkachuk (0.78)
4. Bennett (0.77)
5. Backlund (0.70)
5. Gaudreau (0.70)
7. Lindholm (0.50)

Individual Goals / 60
1. Lindholm (1.07)
2. Mangiapane (1.04)
3. Bennett (0.81)
4. Tkachuk (0.74)
5. Monahan (0.68)
6. Gaudreau (0.65)
7. Backlund (0.49)

Linemate Expected Goals / 60
1. Lindholm (1.85)
2. Tkachuk (1.83)
3. Mangiapane (1.81)
4. Backlund (1.79)
5. Bennett (1.71)
6. Gaudreau (1.65)
7. Monahan (1.54)

Linemate Goals / 60
1. Backlund (2.50)
2. Tkachuk (2.15)
3. Mangiapane (2.09)
4. Gaudreau (1.70)
5. Monahan (1.59)
6. Lindholm (1.58)
7. Bennett (0.91)

Primary Assist Percentage on Linemate Goals
1. Gaudreau (45%)
2. Mangiapane (37%)
3. Bennett (33%)
4. Lindholm (32%)
4. Tkachuk (32%)
4. Backlund (32%)
7. Monahan (27%)

Secondary Assist Percentage on Linemate Goals
1. Monahan (27%)
2. Tkachuk (26%)
3. Gaudreau (21%)
4. Backlund (20%)
5. Lindholm (16%)
6. Mangiapane (10%)
7. Bennett (0%)

I've posted a similar breakdown before, but when you look at Bennett compared to our top 6 forwards:

Good

• He gets just as many chances
• He's finishing his chances when he gets them
• His linemates get plenty of chances
• He's getting primary assists when his linemates do score

Bad

• His linemates finish about half as often on their chances
• He's picked up literally zero secondary assists

It's not hard to make the case that Bennett's point totals are largely due to a combination of bad luck and bad linemates. Normalize those two things and Bennett's stat line would look more like: 8G 13A 21P +6, which would be pacing for a 13G 20A 33P season over 82 games.

Now, for whatever reason Bennett puts up great underlying numbers in a bottom-6 role but struggles in a top-6 role. Maybe he just needs to be the puck-dominant player on his line, or maybe he needs to play a simple game and struggles to keep up. I'm not sure. But Bennett can and should be a driving force on our third line (preferably at C), rather than stuck on the 4th.