The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[ResAlien]

There’s a better chance of choosing Abrams and Georgia’s 16 electoral votes over Minnesota’s paltry 10. Nevermind that Minnesota is probably going blue anyway.

I’ve said it before I’m kind of pumped to see how the establishment screws this one up. Biden/Klobuchar would be super interesting in that regard. Same as adding Pete to the ticket.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If Sanders leads going into a brokered convention, there will be some heavy wrangling over who he chooses as his running-mate. I expect the party will trade their approval of Sanders for his acquiescing in taking a moderate as his running-mate. Klobuchar would tick a lot of boxes as a woman, a moderate, and someone who could lock up Minnesota and boost a ticket in the Midwest.

I know that 538 has the odds of a brokered convention very high still, but it seems quite unlikely now with Pete and Amy dropping out. I suspect that Bloomberg and Warren won't pick up a significant amount of delegates tomorrow and will likely not continue. Unless, it is a razor thin margin the rest of the way, I suspect one of Bernie or Joe will have a majority going into the convention.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If Sanders leads going into a brokered convention, there will be some heavy wrangling over who he chooses as his running-mate. I expect the party will trade their approval of Sanders for his acquiescing in taking a moderate as his running-mate. Klobuchar would tick a lot of boxes as a woman, a moderate, and someone who could lock up Minnesota and boost a ticket in the Midwest.

Warren: make me VP or else.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I know that 538 has the odds of a brokered convention very high still, but it seems quite unlikely now with Pete and Amy dropping out. I suspect that Bloomberg and Warren won't pick up a significant amount of delegates tomorrow and will likely not continue. Unless, it is a razor thin margin the rest of the way, I suspect one of Bernie or Joe will have a majority going into the convention.

The 538 logic is that Pete and Amy dropping out actually make a brokered convention more likely. There are a lot of states where Warren and Bloomberg, and it some cases, Biden, are polling a little below 15%. 15% is critical, because in many states it's an all-or-nothing threshold you need to reach to get delegates.
To give you an extreme example, if you had a state where Sanders was polling at 48%, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Bloomberg all at 13%, Sanders would potentially get 100% of the delegates*. But if Buttigieg drops out, and his voters are split roughly evenly between the other four, then Sanders comes out of it with more in the ballpark of 50% of the delegates, and the other three would each get around 15% each. Basically, the more states where more candidates are able to hit 15%, the more likely there's a brokered convention.

*This 15% percent rule is applied both at the state and precinct level so it's a little more complicated than this simplification.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by octothorp

The 538 logic is that Pete and Amy dropping out actually make a brokered convention more likely. There are a lot of states where Warren and Bloomberg, and it some cases, Biden, are polling a little below 15%. 15% is critical, because in many states it's an all-or-nothing threshold you need to reach to get delegates.
To give you an extreme example, if you had a state where Sanders was polling at 48%, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Bloomberg all at 13%, Sanders would potentially get 100% of the delegates*. But if Buttigieg drops out, and his voters are split roughly evenly between the other four, then Sanders comes out of it with more in the ballpark of 50% of the delegates, and the other three would each get around 15% each. Basically, the more states where more candidates are able to hit 15%, the more likely there's a brokered convention.

*This 15% percent rule is applied both at the state and precinct level so it's a little more complicated than this simplification.

I'm not really buying that explanation

There's only been 155 delegates determine so far, and 33 went to Amy and Pete that basically dead delegates now. 8 have gone to Warren which are all but dead. So say 41 dead delegates now. How many are Warren and Bloomberg really going to get tomorrow? More than 50-100 combined? Say they get 100 combined, and drop out after tomorrow. That's at most 150 dead delegates.

Once it becomes a 2 person race after Tuesday, it's going to have to end up a very tight 1990-1840 race or tighter for one of them not to have a majority. If either has a margin bigger than the dead delegates, they'll get a majority.

The 538 model must have Bloomberg and Warren continuing to pick up significant delegates going forward, and I just don't see that happening.

[TheScorpion]

Poor Amy, the science was on her side.

[Red Slinger]

For the people that chose Bloomberg in the poll, a serious question: why?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I'm not really buying that explanation

There's only been 155 delegates determine so far, and 33 went to Amy and Pete that basically dead delegates now. 8 have gone to Warren which are all but dead. So say 41 dead delegates now. How many are Warren and Bloomberg really going to get tomorrow? More than 50-100 combined? Say they get 100 combined, and drop out after tomorrow. That's at most 150 dead delegates.

Once it becomes a 2 person race after Tuesday, it's going to have to end up a very tight 1990-1840 race or tighter for one of them not to have a majority. If either has a margin bigger than the dead delegates, they'll get a majority.

The 538 model must have Bloomberg and Warren continuing to pick up significant delegates going forward, and I just don't see that happening.

You assume that Warren and Bloomberg drop out. The 538 model does not.

[Canadianman]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

For the people that chose Bloomberg in the poll, a serious question: why?

He's the perfect choice for someone who looks at Trump's record and thinks to himself "I like him, but I wish he had more women accusing him of harassment or assault"

[photon]

I guess neither side would go for a Biden/Sanders ticket would they...

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by photon

I guess neither side would go for a Biden/Sanders ticket would they...

Does David Ayres get to be president if neither of them make it 4 years?

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

For the people that chose Bloomberg in the poll, a serious question: why?

I caught a bit of a press conference/convention of Bloomberg's today and it was the most boring and painful thing to watch. He is so boring and monotone. I just don't see how anyone could get excited about him leading the way. I don't doubt that Bloomberg is a smart guy and good businessman but he seems like a terrible politician. I honestly don't really know much about his history as mayor as I didn't follow NY politics at that time.

[GirlySports]

Score one for Bernie Bros.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1234630241198518273

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I caught a bit of a press conference/convention of Bloomberg's today and it was the most boring and painful thing to watch. He is so boring and monotone. I just don't see how anyone could get excited about him leading the way. I don't doubt that Bloomberg is a smart guy and good businessman but he seems like a terrible politician. I honestly don't really know much about his history as mayor as I didn't follow NY politics at that time.

If you are mayor between Guiliani and DeBlasio you will look good.

[driveway]

Whoever the running-mate is, it will be a person of colour.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by driveway

Whoever the running-mate is, it will be a person of colour.

For Biden? he pretty well has that demographic locked up, a Progressive woman is more use to him

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Nah, neither of those things should be the focus, that doesn't win swing states in a general. But it might be both anyway, because Abrams.

[nfotiu]

Funny, that after the wild ride through the first 4 states, 538's forecast is basically back where it was before the voting began.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

[GirlySports]

The Democrats paint themselves into a corner when the VP choice has to be this or that.

[Senator Clay Davis]

How are Republicans any different in that regard? Trump had to pick Pence and not Ivanka or Vince McMahon because he needed a solid Christian right/base guy. Romney had to pick Ryan because he was a tea party Republican. McCain had to pick Palin to lock up the bat#### wing. Cheney had to pick Bush because someone had to be the front guy with name value.