Friedman's 31 thoughts Post trade deadline edition

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The asset management win is hard to ignore though.

If Gaudreau leaves Calgary in two years for nothing, then signing Hall and getting some young pieces for Gaudreau is a pretty big window extending win for the Flames ... and that's not anti-Gaudreau.

I don't like signing seven year 8 figure deals for anyone, but at least if the asset is free, and it creates another big asset being traded for a haul of futures you push the franchise forward.

Signing Hall doesn't cost the Flames anything but money and cap space and some of that would be utilized by the void of removing Gaudreau's salary. Then you get the players/prospect in return for Gaudreau that bolster organizational depth which is key to icing a perennial good team. Gaudreau is one of my favorite Flames over the years but I'm a Flames fan first and foremost and it's in their best interests to move him while his value is at its highest as it even stings a bit to lose both Brodie and Hamonic for nothing.

I also don't like the idea of locking him up for 7/8 years but you can't always sit on the sidelines and since he's a good skater I assume he should be a decent player into his 30's.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by icecube

Lighten up, it's a joke. Besides, you are better than everyone if you're friends with a celebrity. Everyone knows that.

Sorry, everything is going over my head today

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The asset management win is hard to ignore though.

If Gaudreau leaves Calgary in two years for nothing, then signing Hall and getting some young pieces for Gaudreau is a pretty big window extending win for the Flames ... and that's not anti-Gaudreau.

I don't like signing seven year 8 figure deals for anyone, but at least if the asset is free, and it creates another big asset being traded for a haul of futures you push the franchise forward.

If we do manage to sign Hall, I think we retain Gaudreau through the '20/'21 season. To have that level of depth would be championship-caliber. If things don't work out, you can then pivot by moving Gaudreau at the '21 draft, where the acquiring team can then extend him.

Plus, having Gaudreau would undoubtedly be part of the appeal for Hall to sign here.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Signing Hall doesn't cost the Flames anything but money and cap space and some of that would be utilized by the void of removing Gaudreau's salary. Then you get the players/prospect in return for Gaudreau that bolster organizational depth which is key to icing a perennial good team. Gaudreau is one of my favorite Flames over the years but I'm a Flames fan first and foremost and it's in their best interests to move him while his value is at its highest as it even stings a bit to lose both Brodie and Hamonic for nothing.

I also don't like the idea of locking him up for 7/8 years but you can't always sit on the sidelines and since he's a good skater I assume he should be a decent player into his 30's.

My concern about his long-term effectiveness and a long-term deal is tied to the smoke that he doesn't take his conditioning seriously.
That will catch up with him at some point.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

If we do manage to sign Hall, I think we retain Gaudreau through the '20/'21 season. To have that level of depth would be championship-caliber. If things don't work out, you can then pivot by moving Gaudreau at the '21 draft, where the acquiring team can then extend him.

Plus, having Gaudreau would undoubtedly be part of the appeal for Hall to sign here.

I can't see enough cap space going around for that. Also depending on how the goaltenders hold up down the stretch and into the playoffs I could see the Flames being players for Markstrom if the Canucks let him go to free agency.

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

My concern about his long-term effectiveness and a long-term deal is tied to the smoke that he doesn't take his conditioning seriously.
That will catch up with him at some point.

I don't love Hall but if you move Gaudreau you have to replace a lot of his production and it's probably a risk I would be willing to take.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by icecube

Lighten up, it's a joke. Besides, you are better than everyone if you're friends with a celebrity. Everyone knows that.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tell Joe his beard is gross.

I suspect Friedman is going off of Joe being born in London and that he played for Barrie and the Sault. IMO birthplace gets less and less important the older a guy is and the more he's lived away from home and what he's done ion life. His wife is Swiss, he's become a US citizen. He likely wants to retire to SJ.

I'm betting he looks at TB, Boston or the like (though not sure how he feels about Boston because of the trade). Maybe Vegas for a year for fun.

It is gross isn't it? He did shave it off at the beginning of the season but him and Burns have this beard bro love thing going on. I think there is some superstition involved there as well but I don't know that for fact.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I can't see enough cap space going around for that. Also depending on how the goaltenders hold up down the stretch and into the playoffs I could see the Flames being players for Markstrom if the Canucks let him go to free agency.



I don't love Hall but if you move Gaudreau you have to replace a lot of his production and it's probably a risk I would be willing to take.

I messed around with Capfriendly just a bit and, yeah, assuming Brodie and Hamonic walk, you sign Mangiapane and Talbot for something reasonable, and you sign Gustafsson or someone similar for a few million, you run out of room (and this was assuming Hall at $8.5). The only way to have both Gaudreau and Hall on the team is to run a pretty bare bones defence, maybe replace Talbot with Zag etc.

Plus you have a huge number of top six wingers with LHS - Gaudreau/Tkachuk/Lindholm, Hall, Mangiapane and maybe even counting Dube and Bennett.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

If we do manage to sign Hall, I think we retain Gaudreau through the '20/'21 season. To have that level of depth would be championship-caliber. If things don't work out, you can then pivot by moving Gaudreau at the '21 draft, where the acquiring team can then extend him.

Plus, having Gaudreau would undoubtedly be part of the appeal for Hall to sign here.

If a team offered a first and a blue chip prospect, Id seriously consider moving Johnny this summer. That's one less player you have to protect in the expansion draft. Otherwise, I agree with you. Having a year of both Hall and Johnny would be awesome. I just don't know how that can work capwise. But I guess you never know. Tre's been pretty good at managing the cap so far.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I messed around with Capfriendly just a bit and, yeah, assuming Brodie and Hamonic walk, you sign Mangiapane and Talbot for something reasonable, and you sign Gustafsson or someone similar for a few million, you run out of room (and this was assuming Hall at $8.5). The only way to have both Gaudreau and Hall on the team is to run a pretty bare bones defence, maybe replace Talbot with Zag etc.

Plus you have a huge number of top six wingers with LHS - Gaudreau/Tkachuk/Lindholm, Hall, Mangiapane and maybe even counting Dube and Bennett.

If Brad can make it work then sure. Personally I'm not sure if the goaltending is good enough but I'm not the GM and I do know that like Burke, he loves his defensemen so I don't know if he would go with a bare bones defense.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

If Brad can make it work then sure. Personally I'm not sure if the goaltending is good enough but I'm not the GM and I do know that like Burke, he loves his defensemen so I don't know if he would go with a bare bones defense.

I'm saying it won't work - you still run out of room.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

If we do manage to sign Hall, I think we retain Gaudreau through the '20/'21 season. To have that level of depth would be championship-caliber. If things don't work out, you can then pivot by moving Gaudreau at the '21 draft, where the acquiring team can then extend him.

Plus, having Gaudreau would undoubtedly be part of the appeal for Hall to sign here.

Just don't think it fits to have three of the game's top left wings playing on the same team.

Does Hall play his off side at all?

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The asset management win is hard to ignore though.

If Gaudreau leaves Calgary in two years for nothing, then signing Hall and getting some young pieces for Gaudreau is a pretty big window extending win for the Flames ... and that's not anti-Gaudreau.

I don't like signing seven year 8 figure deals for anyone, but at least if the asset is free, and it creates another big asset being traded for a haul of futures you push the franchise forward.

I understand that, but two years of Hall, Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Lindholm and Dube, Mangiapane (maybe Pelletier and Zag) is difficult to not get excited over. Sure, you'd get a big package if you trade two years of cap friendly Gaudreau, but Calgary will also get a big package if year one doesn't work out that well. If you can get Hall and keep those guys, I think you've got to try at least one year with that fire power.

Edit....what ComixZone said

Second edit.....Gaudreau can play right wing. We haven't done it, but he's done it before. And he's got enough skill to pull it off.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Just don't think it fits to have three of the game's top left wings playing on the same team.

Does Hall play his off side at all?

I've never seen any of those guys play off wing, other than Tkachuk sometimes in spot duty after a PK where Lindy is tired. Both Hall and Gaudreau tend to carry the puck up the left side and use the boards and their body to protect the puck. I actually think off wing would suit Gaudreau after a zone entry.

Asset management though - you could get a really great prospect and picks for Gaudreau, and sign Hall long term, and the offence stays at least the same. And maybe you have budget (with the defence UFAs going) for more forward help.

You have to wonder what Mangiapane and Dube's ceiling is though. Mangiapane looks to be taking another step forward and Dube will too IMO. And does Bennett finally break through?

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I messed around with Capfriendly just a bit and, yeah, assuming Brodie and Hamonic walk, you sign Mangiapane and Talbot for something reasonable, and you sign Gustafsson or someone similar for a few million, you run out of room (and this was assuming Hall at $8.5). The only way to have both Gaudreau and Hall on the team is to run a pretty bare bones defence, maybe replace Talbot with Zag etc.

Plus you have a huge number of top six wingers with LHS - Gaudreau/Tkachuk/Lindholm, Hall, Mangiapane and maybe even counting Dube and Bennett.

I think Bennett and Jankowski are casualties if we were to sign Hall.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I think Bennett and Jankowski are casualties if we were to sign Hall.

I'm prepared to sacrifice Bennett - good luck to him. Jankowski to me is addition by subtraction. Before he was just a PK specialist. He seems to have lost even that this year.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I understand that signing Hall and trading Gaudreau is 'smart asset management'. I don't think there is a person here that will disagree with that statement.


However, I also look at it this way:


1) Teams that trade the best player away usually find the returns have been underwhelming, especially looking back over the seasons.
2) To win the Stanley Cup, depth is important. Know what else is important? Having more elite-level players.


Take a look at that 1988-89 Flames roster. How many elite players did they have? Heck, look at some depth guys on that team like Otto - he was an elite-level defensive centre. There was probably nobody better in the NHL at his job than he was. Incredible depth on D. Most importantly, they had game-breakers - Nieuwendyk, Roberts, Gilmour, Mullen, Loob... They had strong depth guys too - guys like Patterson (what a great 2-way player he was). Anyway, I digress. The point is that good teams have the most best players possible, not the most 'decent players'.



Gaudreau is not only an elite-level talent, but he is on a sweet-heart deal for the next two seasons after this. Flames decided to pay James Neal 1 million less than Gaudreau. That's a problem. Gaudreau having a 'tough year' is still a really good producer.



I think Hall could be a really good producer. I don't think he is nearly as good defensively, nor is he nearly as good at making players around him better. However, he can produce and he normally produces at a high enough clip (when he is healthy) that one can consider him as an elite-level talent.


Wouldn't it be easier to win a cup WITH Gaudreau and Hall rather than win with Hall and depth? That's the point I am making.


I understand asset management. Heck, I think Calgary is going to take a HUGE loss this off-season with Brodie walking away for nothing - Flames are going to miss him badly on the ice, and they took a big hit asset-wise as well.


I have always thought a team needs to have as many 'game-breakers' as possible. As many elite-level talents that fit within the structure and playstyle as possible. The '88-89 Flames had that in spades, plus solid depth.



Look around the NHL at the top teams and figure out how many of them have more top-end talent than the Flames.


I think the Flames should try to add to the core (and get a new coach), then sign Hall and trade Gaudreau for what is most assuredly going to be depth, or maybe a Brodie replacement (dammit!).


Hopefully it all works out and Gaudreau gets traded for a fantastic return, and the players REALLY contribute and the Flames win the cup. I just see that USUALLY the returns on an elite-level (or top end player) are underwhelming, especially over the years when you look back on it with hindsight. For instance, I bet that Nashville doesn't do the Jones trade over. Chiarrelli is an idiot and Brad wouldn't make the same mistake with Seguin, so I won't point that out as an obvious one... but it seems that when one team gives up a top-end player, they don't usually make their team better.


Gaudreau is a top-end player, and his salary is so team friendly right now. That's not what is hurting the Flames. What is hurting the Flames is over-priced depth and dead cap space on buyouts. Flames need to stop making these mistakes, and they should be trying to add elite-level talent gamebreakers to this team. I am no fan of Hall, but he is that type of player, and if the Flames are getting him for free as a UFA, then add him to the good pile of players while trying to reduce from the poor pile of players.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Hall is not a replacement for JG. You still have to knock it out of the park if you trade Johnny. Who will generate offence and carry the puck in?

I think swapping out Hall for Gaudreau would be part of a restructuring of the whole forward core—not just individual parts. In that event, the Flames likely run with one of the following two combinations as the roster is currently configured:

Hall · Monahan · Lindholm
Tkachuk · Backlund · Mangiapane

Tkachuk · Monahan · Lindholm
Hall · Backlund · Mangiapane

This does not take into consideration the addition of any assets returned in a Gaudreau trade, but this on its own would shift the responsibility more to Monahan and Lindholm to carry the puck, which in my opinion is not a bad thing. I have always thought that Monahan defers to Gaudreau instinctively, and far too often. Impressing upon the players some different looks that require them to alter their own game can often produce better results.

[GioforPM]

In 1988-89 there was no cap. That's a huge factor. There's probably no way you could have a team with that many great players today, unless there are a bunch on ELCs (looking back, Joe N and Roberts would have been on ELCs and some other would have been on RFA contracts).

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I've never seen any of those guys play off wing, other than Tkachuk sometimes in spot duty after a PK where Lindy is tired. Both Hall and Gaudreau tend to carry the puck up the left side and use the boards and their body to protect the puck. I actually think off wing would suit Gaudreau after a zone entry.

Asset management though - you could get a really great prospect and picks for Gaudreau, and sign Hall long term, and the offence stays at least the same. And maybe you have budget (with the defence UFAs going) for more forward help.

You have to wonder what Mangiapane and Dube's ceiling is though. Mangiapane looks to be taking another step forward and Dube will too IMO. And does Bennett finally break through?

Such a crap year ... but from the dust and debris of a strange season the Flames do have the emergence of Mangipane, Dube and Andersson as key "wins".

They've gone from fourth line / third pairing guys to now stepping into a secondary core, and playing upper roster minutes/responsibilities.

That's huge.

Hopefully we can add Rittich as a starter to that as well.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Hall is not a replacement for JG. You still have to knock it out of the park if you trade Johnny. Who will generate offence and carry the puck in?

This is the biggest criticism for me of the idea that swapping out gaudreau for hall is an even lateral move.

At 6 million each I take Gaudreau, at 9 million for hall and 6.75 for Gaudreau, I definitely 10 times out of 10 take Gaudreau.

If the plan is to come back with a ramshackle defense, a 9 million dollar Taylor hall and no other substantial additions, I don't see this as a contending club.

And if you're not a contending club, just exactly what are you doing signing major ufa deals?

The flames cap situation for next year right now is 17 million in cap space with 13 players signed. Significant raise coming to Mangiapane (great work on that one), modest raise to Kylington, a backup (starter?) Goalie and 4 other defenders.

Unlike last season when the flames had an obvious cap cutting candidate in Frolik, this offseason requires more difficult decisions.

I'm not disagreeing that the flames are going to go hard after hall, the tea leaves are so clear it feels like borderline tampering. I just don't know how you square that with filling out the rest of the roster.

The thing with the performance to cap ratio of losing bargains like Hamonic and Brodie is that they are bargains because they weren't UFA deals. Signing ufa defenders means a downgrade in performance for the same cap hit. The flames are gaining about 9 million in cap space by losing hamonic and Brodie, but their replacement value is probably 11 or 12 million.

I hope there is a plan to address that. A short term bargain deal for Forbert is almost certainly part of that plan at this point I think, but I wonder if the flames feel like letting hamonic walk is even an option for them.

I can't help but think of Kent Wilson's Kulak article right now.