The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by HockeyIlliterate

Klobuchar has a rather grating speaking cadence.

She puts. pauses. and breaks. in. her speeches. at really. odd. places.

I get that she is trying to be emphatic, but it just comes off as stilted and inauthentic to me.

True, but it's kind of how they talk in Minnesota.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

I like how with politics, you guys are all "oh man history repeats itself blah blah" but with the economy, it's "IT'S A DIFFERENT WORLD NOW OK".



How about you lay off the crystal ball Nostradamus.

Not to mention it's such an incredibly simplistic take on the '72 campaign.

We also had an election in Ireland two days ago where the left-wing populist party had its best showing in over a century, despite a strong economy.

The normal rules may no longer apply.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Buttigieg might have won this thing if Biden had dropped out. If he could solve his minority support problem he'd be in pretty good shape right now.

1st vs 2nd doesn't matter much until someone is getting close to 50%. Who has minority support though? Sanders isn't really strong there either.

It's interesting that Pete/Amy/Joe are well over 50% while Bernie/Elizabeth are in the 35% range in a primary that Sanders trounced Clinton almost 2-1 in 2016. If the moderates can figure out who to get behind, I don't think it will be nearly as close as 2016.

[Vedder]

Originally Posted by opendoor

What a stupidly simplistic argument. Progressive Democratic candidates lost elections in areas they never win elections anyway. Shocking...

What matters is how they did relative to how they normally do in those areas. Just as a quick test, I looked at a list of Justice Democrat supported candidates who lost their general election:

https://ballotpedia.org/Justice_Democrats

It was well documented in the aftermath of 2018 that progressive candidates also lost in purple districts, not just long shot red districts.

https://www.businessinsider.com/prog...dterms-2018-11

Your general point could be right, but the data you provided isn't compelling in isolation either. It'd be more meaningful to compare the relative magnitude of the justice dem/progressive gains versus the moderates in 2018. You'd expect all dems to get a bump in the mid-term following the election of a normal republican president, and I'd expect the anti-Trump vote probably exaggerated that effect in some places.

[CliffFletcher]

Klobuchar is surging at the perfect time and starting to emerge as a real contender. She's strong in the debates, and with the field getting smaller she'll get more time on stage to shine. I could see the moderate vote (and money) shift her way if she has a strong showing in Arizona.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Klobuchar is surging at the perfect time and starting to emerge as a real contender. She's strong in the debates, and with the field getting smaller she'll get more time on stage to shine. I could see the moderate vote (and money) shift her way if she has a strong showing in Arizona.

She has a measly 4% in Nevada, and 3% in South Carolina.

Both Klobuchar and Mayo Pete are probably at their peak right now. Once Bloomberg enters the centre fractures even more.

Will have to see how the new polls shake out after Iowa and NH, but neither of these two seem to have any real traction elsewhere.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

She has a measly 4% in Nevada, and 3% in South Carolina.

She was polling single digits in New Hampshire a week ago. Momentum is a funny thing.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

She was polling single digits in New Hampshire a week ago. Momentum is a funny thing.

8-10% jumping to 20% seems reasonable. To jump from <5% to winning in the upcoming states seems like a tall order.

[getbak]

Sanders wins New Hampshire ... or was it Chevy Chase?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227444084798902272

[photon]

This race needs more winnowing...

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

8-10% jumping to 20% seems reasonable. To jump from <5% to winning in the upcoming states seems like a tall order.

The last poll in Nevada was in Jan 14, that's a looong time.

[Bunk]

The Nevada culinary union, which is big and powerful in this race just shat all over Medicare for All, for taking away the Union negotiated healthcare. That'll be interesting. Nevada is very hard to predict.

[PsYcNeT]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227451744571002881

That's actually better than I expected Pete to do with that demographic.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227451744571002881

That's actually better than I expected Pete to do with that demographic.

No need to put percentage signs for non-white voters. That is actual number.

[nfotiu]

With Sanders only getting half as many votes as he did in 2016's primary, it's getting pretty tough to go with the narrative that he's going to still bring out a bunch of enthusiastic supporters to the general election. Even if you add Warren's numbers to his, the far left vote is still well below 2016 and only accounts for 35% of the results last night vs the almost 70% he got vs Clinton.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The Dem primary feels a lot like the 2016 GOP primary, where it seems the thinking is if the Dems can just coalesce behind one moderate candidate they will be able to beat Bernie, but as long as the field remains fractured Bernie has a good shot to squeeze thru. And like the 2016 GOP primary there doesn't really seem to be a logical candidate to coalesce behind.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The Dem primary feels a lot like the 2016 GOP primary, where it seems the thinking is if the Dems can just coalesce behind one moderate candidate they will be able to beat Bernie, but as long as the field remains fractured Bernie has a good shot to squeeze thru. And like the 2016 GOP primary there doesn't really seem to be a logical candidate to coalesce behind.

Going to be tougher for Bernie because there were more winner take all states in the GOP race. Other than Trump and Cruz no one else won more than one state.

The Democratic race will split delegates per state and cause a mess

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Going to be tougher for Bernie because there were more winner take all states in the GOP race. Other than Trump and Cruz no one else won more than one state.

The Democratic race will split delegates per state and cause a mess

That's a good point. I assume Warren will drop out around Super Tuesday if she doesn't have a big turnaround.

There's a very real possibility that Bernie could go in the convention as leader with only about 35% of delegates and 35-40% of the popular votes. You could potentially have 3 moderates hanging around in the 20-30% range.

What a huge mess that would make. Bernie's people would think he's the obvious choice with a significant lead. Moderates would see that two thirds of the party want a moderate and have rejected Bernie.

[GirlySports]

Warren staying in hurts Bernie. In most states you dont get any delegates if you don't reach 15%.

So yesterday, of Warren's 10%, a third of it went to progressives (Bernie) and two-thirds of it went to moderates (Pete and Amy). If she dropped out for sure more than 1/3 of her voters would go to Bernie.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Warren staying in hurts Bernie. In most states you dont get any delegates if you don't reach 15%.

So yesterday, of Warren's 10%, a third of it went to progressives (Bernie) and two-thirds of it went to moderates (Pete and Amy). If she dropped out for sure more than 1/3 of her voters would go to Bernie.

You could say the same thing about Biden hurting Pete and Amy. If Pete, Amy and maybe Bloomberg all keep picking up 2/3rds of the delegates but split them out pretty well, do they figure out one person to endorse? Do those delegates carry over to them? It sounds like the rules for all that are pretty murky.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Warren staying in hurts Bernie. In most states you dont get any delegates if you don't reach 15%.

So yesterday, of Warren's 10%, a third of it went to progressives (Bernie) and two-thirds of it went to moderates (Pete and Amy). If she dropped out for sure more than 1/3 of her voters would go to Bernie.

I think most of her voters would go to Klobuchar.