[Rumour] LeBrun: Flames have interest in Toffoli (and other RHS top 6 forwards)

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Nylander's cap hit isn't that bad any more. Plus, he was promised that he wouldn't be traded FWIW. I think Hamonic could well be tied to a re-signing condition. And I think they'd have a decent shot. Also I'm not sure Kapanen is as sure-fire a replacement for Nylander as we might think.

In any event, their D situation is dire right now, not in the offseason, because of Reilly and Muzzin both being shelved. They could really use 2 Ds.

Maybe they'd look at Kapanen for Hamonic and Bennett.

That makes more sense to me from the front that they are getting something they can hold onto as a guarantee and a guy who could help them upfront in the playoffs after deleting a high end forward.

I would do that 10 times out of 10 from a Flames perspective since we all know Bennett is a bust in terms of being a top 5 pick that will never score in volumes anywhere near the level expected of that status (people can throw out all the stats they want, but it's crystal clear he doesn't have the shot or hockey IQ to play with the big boys or man a top PP unit). The Flames can certainly use his tenacity in a playoff run of their own, but I don't think they get to that level unless they add more skill to the roster.

Kapanen ticks that box for me and could very well bring the Monahan-Guadreau line back to offensive dominance for the next few seasons.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Exactly, that's why it should be a great time to try and take advantage of them while they free up cap space.

You take a good contract like Kapanen and waiver fodder like Ceci and send them one player back. Even it out with picks. They gain cap space, while we get the best player and the worst player in the deal.

Oh, I agree. That's why I think Hamonic, even on an expiring deal, for Kapanen, isn't that out there of a trade for TO, especially if TO is on the bubble to make the playoffs and Dubas gets desperate. They get a legit second pairing dman that can actually play defence, and shed cap space by getting rid of Ceci, but have to sacrifice Kapenen to do it. It also frees up some cap space for them to upgrade on Hutchinson.

And yes, Dubas said he's not moving Kapenen unless it's for a good deal. But what's he suppose to say? We're desperate, so we're totally open for business?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

We all no he isn't producing to those levels, heck I said it the previous post.

Me looking that up would be a complete waste of time. The point (which I'm actually sure you caught) is that there are certain play driving and personal chance statistics that suggest there is more there.

750 is 3 seasons of 250, 250 being the appropriate ice time cross point to get roughly 375 forwards (31x12)

So no ... didn't try and cook the books to make Bennett look better.

I don't think you're cooking the books, I think you're avoiding the tangible context that would give those expected goals number meaning.

You're saying that 3 years of data of bennett producing high quality scoring chances suggests that there is more there.

I'm saying 3 years of data of bennett producing high quality scoring chances without the actual scoring suggests Bennett is one of the worst tangible producers in the entire league.

At what point does a 52% ixG% and 9 goals mean to you that Bennett isn't looking to pop but that he's just a guy that doesn't produce?

Like, do you feel the same way about Colton Sissons? He's a guy that if Treliving went out and got him on the cheap, he'd be a great addition?

Because over the last 3 seasons they have the same amount of goals and assists and are within 6 games played of each other. Both have jam, Sissons can actually play centre and is much better on the draw and takes half as many penalties. He's generally a more versatile and better defensive player.

Over the last 3 years, the only flames forwards with a worse shooting percentage than Bennett are Backlund, Frolik and Neal.

Maybe 3 years worth of data that suggests tangible offense is in short supply for Bennett combined with data that says he should score more goals than he does just means he's bad at scoring goals? Could it be that simple?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

That makes more sense to me from the front that they are getting something they can hold onto as a guarantee and a guy who could help them upfront in the playoffs after deleting a high end forward.

I would do that 10 times out of 10 from a Flames perspective since we all know Bennett is a bust in terms of being a top 5 pick that will never score in volumes anywhere near the level expected of that status (people can throw out all the stats they want, but it's crystal clear he doesn't have the shot or hockey IQ to play with the big boys or man a top PP unit). The Flames can certainly use his tenacity in a playoff run of their own, but I don't think they get to that level unless they add more skill to the roster.

Kapanen ticks that box for me and could very well bring the Monahan-Guadreau line back to offensive dominance for the next few seasons.

The one thing about my comment about Reilly and Muzzin being shelved is that Muzzin is now skating in the AHL so he'd not going to be gone for too much longer.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I don't think you're cooking the books, I think you're avoiding the tangible context that would give those expected goals number meaning.

You're saying that 3 years of data of bennett producing high quality scoring chances suggests that there is more there.

I'm saying 3 years of data of bennett producing high quality scoring chances without the actual scoring suggests Bennett is one of the worst tangible producers in the entire league.

At what point does a 52% ixG% and 9 goals mean to you that Bennett isn't looking to pop but that he's just a guy that doesn't produce?

Like, do you feel the same way about Colton Sissons? He's a guy that if Treliving went out and got him on the cheap, he'd be a great addition?

Because over the last 3 seasons they have the same amount of goals and assists and are within 6 games played of each other. Both have jam, Sissons can actually play centre and is much better on the draw and takes half as many penalties. He's generally a more versatile and better defensive player.

Over the last 3 years, the only flames forwards with a worse shooting percentage than Bennett are Backlund, Frolik and Neal.

Maybe 3 years worth of data that suggests tangible offense is in short supply for Bennett combined with data that says he should score more goals than he does just means he's bad at scoring goals? Could it be that simple?

And your response would be spot on if I was suggesting patience, or trying to convince you that the player is unlucky.

Luckily I didn't say either of those things.

I said it may never happen. I said that those that think that's that are completely understandable.

What I did say is that there are measures that suggest the book hasn't been written ... so to say there is no reason to believe there may be more is actually hyperbole, because there is.

Your need to continue to spew counting stats seems off base in response to what I said.

I guess you have a reflex action to the word Bennett that has you just respond the same way to everyone.

As to context ... 750 is a logical cut off point to get the league's full roster of forwards over that time period. It was an attempt to just give pure data without sample sizes getting in the way. By describing exactly what I did I provided 100% context for what I posted.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And your response would be spot on if I was suggesting patience, or trying to convince you that the player is unlucky.

Luckily I didn't say either of those things.

I said it may never happen. I said that those that think that's that are completely understandable.

What I did say is that there are measures that suggest the book hasn't been written ... so to say there is no reason to believe there may be more is actually hyperbole, because there is.

Your need to continue to spew counting stats seems off base in response to what I said.

I guess you have a reflex action to the word Bennett that has you just respond the same way to everyone.

As to context ... 750 is a logical cut off point to get the league's full roster of forwards over that time period. It was an attempt to just give pure data without sample sizes getting in the way. By describing exactly what I did I provided 100% context for what I posted.

Anyone who thinks a 23yo everyday NHL player who has failed to live up to his immense potential can't someday figure it out is being too shortsighted.

I'm not saying it will happen or even that its likely but it still can happen.

The NHL is littered with players who didn't figure things out until their mid 20's.

The important thing is he can provide certain intangibles and is still effective enough to play each night on any NHL roster - even if its just on the 4th line in Calgary currently.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by David Struch

The Leafs probably still want Jankowski & Brodie, Kadri's value can't be that far off from Kapanen.

Toronto would also likely love to get Bennett & Hamonic.

Time for the Leafs to pay up for the previous trades where they cleaned up.

Hamonic, Bennett, Jankowski, and Davidson for Kapanen and Matthews.

[Toonage]

Matthews?!? With those bad wrists? Pfft. No thank you.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Matthews?!? With those bad wrists? Pfft. No thank you.

I was going to say Marner, but the Matthews vs McAvi battle of Alberta would be worth it for the media counteraction alone.

Well, and 34 goals.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

Anyone who thinks a 23yo everyday NHL player who has failed to live up to his immense potential can't someday figure it out is being too shortsighted.

I'm not saying it will happen or even that its likely but it still can happen.

The NHL is littered with players who didn't figure things out until their mid 20's.

The important thing is he can provide certain intangibles and is still effective enough to play each night on any NHL roster - even if its just on the 4th line in Calgary currently.

He has been healthy scratched this season, hasn't he? Or did it turn out he had an injury?

Thing is, he is now overpaid for what he is currently bringing. And I don't know if there is really such a thing as an "everyday" 4th liner. Those are the players you cycle in and out of the lineup to keep them fresh and engaged, and who are always at risk of being replaced by someone younger, cheaper and with more potential.

I don't think Bennett should be waived but he sure isn't the hill I'm going to die on. He hasn't helped the team much this year.

[dissentowner]

This stupid break in the schedule is insufferable.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

This stupid break in the schedule is insufferable.

Agreed.

The Bennett, Kassian and Tkachuk discussions have about run their course.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

He has been healthy scratched this season, hasn't he? Or did it turn out he had an injury?

Thing is, he is now overpaid for what he is currently bringing. And I don't know if there is really such a thing as an "everyday" 4th liner. Those are the players you cycle in and out of the lineup to keep them fresh and engaged, and who are always at risk of being replaced by someone younger, cheaper and with more potential.

I don't think Bennett should be waived but he sure isn't the hill I'm going to die on. He hasn't helped the team much this year.

My point is he is still good enough to dress each night because he has intangibles that don't show up on the scoresheet.

I know everyone will be quick to point out the bonehead penalties he takes but I think my point still stands. He is a legitimate NHL player, much like Hathaway is or Austin Watson.

I understand the cap hit argument but I still want to retain him unless he can be moved for something that helps the team upgrade an area of weakness.

Bennett being out there for a handful of games I think was due to injury, and the only reason to scratch a guy like him is because of expectations vs results because like I said I think he is still a guy who would be in pretty much all NHL teams top 12 forwards.

He should be dressed ahead of guys like Reider, Rinaldo and Jankowski but that isn't saying much.

Like Bingo and others have pointed out if you forget where he was drafted he is still a useful player.

As Treliving once said 'you have players who help you make the playoffs and you have player that help you win in the playoffs, you need both.'

No one here can argue against Bennett's playoff performances.

Move him if it makes sense but don't throw him away for peanuts.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Agreed.

The Bennett, Kassian and Tkachuk discussions have about run their course.

Personally I'd like to add the Gaudreau discussion into this grouping.

[Harry Lime]

I tried to get some Backlund talk going in the other thread, but the Trump style Bennett talk just won't die.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just so I have this right..

Value of his contributions...... and on-ice performance... is not relevant to discussing hockey players and their impact on the team any longer?

Seriously?

Surely you didn’t miss my point.

His on ice contributions should be looked at.

Your hyperbole around how useless he is isn’t an objective stance. Your exaggeration of how bad he is has been proven to be over the top by Bingo through his stats.

C’mon, you can do better than exaggerate about how useless or overpaid he is. You know what I was getting at.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And your response would be spot on if I was suggesting patience, or trying to convince you that the player is unlucky.

Luckily I didn't say either of those things.

I said it may never happen. I said that those that think that's that are completely understandable.

What I did say is that there are measures that suggest the book hasn't been written ... so to say there is no reason to believe there may be more is actually hyperbole, because there is.

Your need to continue to spew counting stats seems off base in response to what I said.

No, I'm just a poster that has watched you continually point to Bennett's advanced stats over the last few years to indicate that there is more 'there' there. I'm not someone who needs to be convinced of advanced stats, I'm a true believer. But in this discussion someone has to use counting stats because you will leave them out if they conflict or cast doubt on the numbers you're looking to use to prove your point. I'm not disputing Bennett's advanced stats in the way you have couched his numbers by ranking or percentage instead of using the raw counting stats. Instead you'll use things like his 'rank' on the team in goals per game or his 'percentage' improvement in faceoffs.

Sort of like when you say the 'measures that show the book hasn't been written', when all the stats are telling you is information on previous output, that have for 250+ games shown to inaccurately predict the tangible counting stat ouput of the player.

I'm definitely open to conversation about Bennett's offensive decline this season being an outlier and utilizing a previous season to conclude that given an adjusment in his game he could return to his previous ~25 point output instead of ~15 point output, but that's not what you're suggesting when trying to shut down tranny's point that Bennett is what he is at this point.

You're saying "So yeah it may never happen, but there are legitimate measures that suggest more is to come."

Whereas my understanding is that is not at all what the stats suggest. What the stats are saying is that Bennett should rightfully produce a lot more than he does, perhaps a hell of a lot more. This doesn't suggest there is an explosion on the horizon, it suggests Bennett, over a substantial sample size, simply cannot seem to produce the offense you would expect out a levelized player generating those kind of chances. This is where the counting stats also reflect the eye test.

Either the advances stats aren't telling the whole story or they are somehow flawed in relation to this player.

There is a definite possibility Bennett goes on to have a Bouma/Donovan/Colborne style season where he shoots 15% over 70 games and hits 20 goals. Hockey is mostly luck, anything can happen, but to point to tantalizing advanced metrics as a reason to believe he is likely to be an offensive generating player going forward is the opposite of what they are saying.

What the stats say, both counting and advanced, is that this player struggles to produce offense even in situations where by all rights he should be. That's an indication that regardless of opportunity, it's unlikely to transpire, because it's not about opportunity, it's about individual ability.

Maybe I'm wrong and would love to be educated, but I don't see what you see when I look at the advanced stats, and I'm trying to.

I guess you have a reflex action to the word Bennett that has you just respond the same way to everyone.

and here's where you try to make things personal again, seemingly to provoke a response. As I've said several times previously, I'm not interested in making this personal. As you're the owner of the website, we're obviously not on equal footing here.

[Red Potato Standing By]

Is this the part where bingo screams rank means nothing and you guys duke it out?... fight fight fight... lol

[dammage79]

I'm personally invested in seeing Sam Bennett succeed, here, on the Flames.

I dont care about his current status and lack of production. Hes just the one player I've believed in for so long I can't just toss in the towel.

I fully 100 percent understand why people want him traded, think he is a bust. I truly do get it. He has invited the dissent for 3 years now. Perhaps he is best served with a fresh start on another team. But I personally cannot shake the belief that if this team can get deep into the promised land, he is going to be THE MAN who deals the deal for this team.

I cant shake it.

If he gets traded, life goes on and we will be left with what could have been, I really dont want that though. Hes my 3rd favorite player on the team.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I'm personally invested in seeing Sam Bennett succeed, here, on the Flames.

I dont care about his current status and lack of production. Hes just the one player I've believed in for so long I can't just toss in the towel.

I fully 100 percent understand why people want him traded, think he is a bust. I truly do get it. He has invited the dissent for 3 years now. Perhaps he is best served with a fresh start on another team. But I personally cannot shake the belief that if this team can get deep into the promised land, he is going to be THE MAN who deals the deal for this team.

I cant shake it.

If he gets traded, life goes on and we will be left with what could have been, I really dont want that though. Hes my 3rd favorite player on the team.

Ideally they upgrade the right side and push players down and he can play on a line with some quality players in the bottom 6:

Bennett-Backlund-Mang/Dube
Lucic-Ryan-Dube/Mang