63 Canadians killed after civilian airliner shot down.

[Fuzz]

If a missile was fired at it, is there anything preventing it from hitting the starboard engine? That appears to be your biggest issue, but wouldn't it have a 50/50 chance of locking on to either engine? Possibly slightly biased to the port, but given the altitude, would it differentiate much between the 2 when locking on?

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

All I'm pointing out is that the plane will initially turn in the direction where there is the most drag. That's just physics. Assuming catastrophic engine failure, the plane will initially turn in the direction of that failed engine. What the pilot does after that to correct, I do not know. If I remember my third year aerodynamics course, an engine loss below a critical speed (which changes according to altitude, temperature, and ice) is a terminal failure, especially if the pilot attempts to turn and the aircraft stalls in the turn.

There are two other airports he could have turned to. Maybe he was trying that?

But there's nothing pointing that the pilot (or autopilot) made nothing more than a standard procedural departure turn.

This also doesn't reflect that the plane was damaged and drag or anything caused a turn. It's likely that the damage to the plane occurred at the time of the ADS-B going black.

Is there some more info about a turn that I'm missing?

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If a missile was fired at it, is there anything preventing it from hitting the starboard engine? That appears to be your biggest issue, but wouldn't it have a 50/50 chance of locking on to either engine? Possibly slightly biased to the port, but given the altitude, would it differentiate much between the 2 when locking on?

The TOR will detonate at whatever proximity distance to the closest part of the aircraft. I don't know what that distance is. The launcher would have to be in line with the plane's direction of travel in order to detonate and possibly affect both engines. A fore attack will damage the cockpit heavily. An aft shot will damage the tail with possible damage to engines. Port or starboard shots will heavily affect the applicable engine.

The MANPAD will aim towards the brightest IR signature, the aft of the engine biased to the side of the shooter.

The video also doesn't show an exhaust plume, which is what I'd expect to see with TOR. The MANPAD's fuel typically runs out before hitting target and it just glides to contact.

I keep reading about a "sharp right turn" which I take it to mean it occurred after it made its sweeping right turn to head north. The "sharp right turn" is what I'm basing my missile theories on, assuming the "sharp right turn" is a result of catastrophic failure causing the increased drag.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

But there's nothing pointing that the pilot (or autopilot) made nothing more than a standard procedural departure turn.

This also doesn't reflect that the plane was damaged and drag or anything caused a turn. It's likely that the damage to the plane occurred at the time of the ADS-B going black.

Is there some more info about a turn that I'm missing?

Like I replied to Fuzz, I'm assuming there was another "sharp right turn", which I assume to be after he turned NW towards Parand. I assume the engine blew up and took out the comms systems.

Where is the crash site? I saw something flashed up on the TeeVee but I can't recall the neighborhood's name.

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

I keep reading about a "sharp right turn" which I take it to mean it occurred after it made its sweeping right turn to head north. The "sharp right turn" is what I'm basing my missile theories on, assuming the "sharp right turn" is a result of catastrophic failure causing the increased drag.

Ah I see now. The crash site is far off the flightpath that would have required a turn after losing contact. I was still thinking the crash site was in the neighborhood ahead of it like in earlier reports.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would expect and someone knows here that Iran has extreme restrictions in terms of internet access and Satellite access for news etc. The average Joe citizen is probably being given the narrative that the great Satan shot down the plane or that it was a simple engine failure. They won't know the rest of the story.


Internal propaganda will be full force.


BTW, I really respect Baron's posts, he's technically way smarter then me.

Incorrect.

Yes, there are some limitations. But most Iranians have access to all the news and information and social media that you do.

Iran isn't some backwards #### hole of a country. Some would say Tehran is nicer and much safer than Edmonton (that some would be me, and I could be incorrect).

[Manhattanboy]

Iran isn't some backwards #### hole of a country. Some would say Tehran is nicer and much safer than Edmonton (that some would be me, and I could be incorrect).

What would Iran (and Lebanon) look like today if not for 1979?

Tehran and Beirut would be at the top of the best cities in the world to visit/live.

The Iranian revolution pretty much took the country back to the stone age. Sad.

[peter12]

I know a few Iranian-Canadians and needless to say they come from a country with a beautiful history and culture. The revolution destroyed a lot of that and that is why they live here now.

[Manhattanboy]

And imho Iranian (Persian) women are the most attractive on the planet.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

What would Iran (and Lebanon) look like today if not for 1979?

Tehran and Beirut would be at the top of the best cities in the world to visit/live.

The Iranian revolution pretty much took the country back to the stone age. Sad.

Beirut is still, in my opinion, an amazing place to go to.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by peter12

I know a few Iranian-Canadians and needless to say they come from a country with a beautiful history and culture. The revolution destroyed a lot of that and that is why they live here now.

Iran is, without a doubt, not the safest place in the world for a white westerner. Especially if you are visibly and American or act like an #######. And the government and corruption leave a lot to be desired. But what people see in movies and TV shows about middle eastern cities, is often silly. Or more often than not, a very historic or rustic portion of the city.

I find it hilarious to watch shows and movies that show footage of some of these places and make it look like its Agrabah right out of Aladdin.


I think that's why some people can write off what happens over there. "It's just a bunch of savages living in a desolate wasteland"

When that can't be farther from the truth. Iranian's are a very very proud people. And they should be, their culture is ancient compared to what we have here in the west.

But opportunities for advancement will often outweigh civic pride when these people see them in the west. Which is why they want to move here.

[CaptainCrunch]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/flig...ster-1.4762473

OTTAWA -- The last conversation between Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 pilots and air traffic personnel on the ground in Tehran before the plane crashed minutes after take-off was nothing out of the norm, said Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister.
In an interview with CTV’s Question Period, airing Sunday, Vadym Prystaiko said all communication was "peaceful," supporting the assertion made by the U.S. and Canada that the flight was shot down by an Iranian missile, mistakenly or otherwise.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

Ah I see now. The crash site is far off the flightpath that would have required a turn after losing contact. I was still thinking the crash site was in the neighborhood ahead of it like in earlier reports.

There are two international airports serving Tehran. The flight took off from the bottom one and based on the flight path above could have been heading back to the top one if it was under control.

Edit: though it’s turning much more sharply than it would to reach the other runway.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

What would Iran (and Lebanon) look like today if not for 1979?

Tehran and Beirut would be at the top of the best cities in the world to visit/live.

The Iranian revolution pretty much took the country back to the stone age. Sad.

Yes, but 1979 would never have happened if we hadn't overthrown their democracy in 43, and again in 51 and kept a brutal dicktator (sic) in power through the 60's and 70's who had the SAVAK supress any dissidents.

'79 was a predictable reaction to the wests exploitation of Iran for its oil.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Yes, but 1979 would never have happened if we hadn't overthrown their democracy in 43, and again in 51 and kept a brutal dicktator (sic) in power through the 60's and 70's who had the SAVAK supress any dissidents.

'79 was a predictable reaction to the wests exploitation of Iran for its oil.

It only looks predictable from your vantage point in 2020.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by peter12

It only looks predictable from your vantage point in 2020.

So why do you think the Iranians massively welcomed the revolution then and greeted the Ayatolah as a saviour even though most of the country wasn't particularly religious? do you not think it might have been due to the decades of humiliation at having their resources stolen and their political system periodically taken away as they tried to take control of their country from the UK and US?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by peter12

It only looks predictable from your vantage point in 2020.

Nobody with any credible understanding of world history would make this statement.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Nobody with any credible understanding of world history would make this statement.

I admit I laughed at this.

[nik-]

None of this would have ever happened if Xerxes wasn't held up at Thermopylae!

No one forced Khomeini to hijack the revolution and turn Iran into backwater. They did that on their own. The first post revolution president is on record saying Khomeini betrayed the revolution.

A good rule to follow is don't get your history from Oliver Stone documentaries.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by nik-

None of this would have ever happened if Xerxes wasn't held up at Thermopylae!

No one forced Khomeini to hijack the revolution and turn Iran into backwater. They did that on their own. The first post revolution president is on record saying Khomeini betrayed the revolution.

A good rule to follow is don't get your history from Oliver Stone documentaries.

My point was that there wouldn't have been a revolution if we had allowed the country to develop democratically in the 1930's instead of overthrowing their democratic Government in 43', there would have been no Khomeini.

Actually I will change this a bit, my point is we have screwed with that whole region for a century for no better reason than we wanted to get their oil as cheaply as possible, that the whole political mess there is a reaction to our actions. That by being the bad guy we have given political credibility to anyone who argues an anti western position, from Nassar to Khomeini, who knows what the region would look like if we left it alone but I doubt they would hate us as they do now