Craig Button: Top 50 NHL affiliated prospects

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Hanna Sniper

Ok, sure it does.

LOL I'm afraid things don't work that way, thankfully

Did you miss him having Tim Erixon higher than most the year we drafted him?
Did you miss him having Mark Jankowski higher than most the year we drafted him?
I believe I have those right. And there are more examples too.

There's a long history of Craig Button's draft lists looking like they very much were influenced by what Tod Button thought.

Which way do things work?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

...You just gotta realize the pros and cons of each source. Some people have clearly gone overboard in their hatred of all things Button. His lists have some merit but they are clearly biased and lacking in certain ways. As some have mentioned his list is often very tournament biased (WJC biased) as he obviously isn't out there scouting the CHL every day. His lists aren't the gospel. They aren't completely worthless. Somewhere in between. Just take it with a grain of salt, realize he's probably overrating the WJC takeaways. Just like you've gotta take Pronman's lists with a grain of salt and realize he's wowed by the smaller, flashy guys and underrates the importance of winning physical battles (some posters here are guilty of the same thinking). Button is another source of information and if you're looking for that information I wouldn't completely ignore him.

I think this is key, and deserves some further unpacking. No NHL scout will see every game, or watch enough to know every player. They just simply cannot, which is why NHL teams employ multiple scouts, who will most often concentrate their abilities on specific regions and smaller pools of players.

The reason Craig Button overrates on the basis of tournaments is because these are events that he can actually watch—logistically speaking, independent analysts like Button, Pronman and Constantino are severely restricted to seeing only a fraction of the players that NHL scouting teams will evaluate. It's not necessarily a matter of Button's professional shortcomings, but rather simply because he cannot possibly know as much as the large scouting groups collectively.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hanna Sniper

Ok, sure it does.

LOL I'm afraid things don't work that way, thankfully

What on earth are you talking about?

[RyZ]

Pelletier is having a significantly more productive season in the CHL than a number of players on Craigs list there. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see him sky rocket up a number of these types of lists over the next calendar year. If he hadnt got hurt and played in the recent WJC, I have little doubt he would be somewhere in the 20s or 30s on that list.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

So there are generally two different types of experts in regards to prospects and the draft.

1. Insiders who get their information from NHL contacts. This would be like Bob Mackenzie. This is the best information hands down because Mackenzie is polling 10 different scouts and combining their data. This is why Mackenzie also has the most accurate draft predictions. Does Bob Mackenzie scout? No. Is Bob Mackenzie putting his own spin on the list? No. He's simply averaging lists he takes from actual NHL scouts

2. People who are actually out there doing some scouting themselves. Pronman and Button are examples of this. Redline Report, ISS, etc. Button used to be paid by NHL teams to scout and manage. I'll take his experience and his eye for talent all day long over a guy like Pronman. But Button isn't any better than sources like Redline report, Future Considerations, etc IMO.

Then there are people like Cosentino who are a bit of a blend of the two. They have great scouting contacts but they're also out there watching a lot of junior for themselves. He's a good source too.

You just gotta realize the pros and cons of each source. Some people have clearly gone overboard in their hatred of all things Button. His lists have some merit but they are clearly biased and lacking in certain ways. As some have mentioned his list is often very tournament biased (WJC biased) as he obviously isn't out there scouting the CHL every day. His lists aren't the gospel. They aren't completely worthless. Somewhere in between. Just take it with a grain of salt, realize he's probably overrating the WJC takeaways. Just like you've gotta take Pronman's lists with a grain of salt and realize he's wowed by the smaller, flashy guys and underrates the importance of winning physical battles (some posters here are guilty of the same thinking). Button is another source of information and if you're looking for that information I wouldn't completely ignore him.

Great post.
I like to read different perspectives to form my own opinion. So I enjoy Button and Pronman's work because they are so different. And if you understand what they generally seem to like, you can gain a lot of insight about some players.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Did you miss him having Tim Erixon higher than most the year we drafted him?
Did you miss him having Mark Jankowski higher than most the year we drafted him?
I believe I have those right. And there are more examples too.

There's a long history of Craig Button's draft lists looking like they very much were influenced by what Tod Button thought.

Which way do things work?

Don’t forget current Flames prospect Mitch Mattson who Craig had listed as a top 50 prospect I believe.

Someone (Craig or Todd) was very wrong about that one.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

There seems to be a consensus around analysts that the Flames cupboards are bare. It's not hard to agree.

1. Juuso Valimaki - 92.6% (Round 1)
2. Dillon Dube - 54.5% (Round 2)
3. Oliver Kylington - 78.3% (Round 3)
4. Jakob Pelletier - 58.0% (Round 4)
5. Matias Emilio Pettersen - 50.0% (Round 5)
6. Tyler Parsons - 50.0% (Round 6)
7. Matthew Phillips - 55.6% (Round 7)
8. Illya Nikolaev - 33.6% (Round 8)
9. Martin Pospisil - 35.8% (Round 9)
10. Dmitry Zavgorodniy - 29.9% (Round 10)

In Stockton right now it doesn't look like they have someone who is a guaranteed NHLer, Their Euro-prospects are not that exciting, they have a couple of could be bottom sixers in the NCAA and CHL.

IMO Pelletier and Valimaki are the only two players trending to be impact NHLers. But, that's the price you pay when you trade away as many draft picks as the Flames have.

The upside to this though, is that guys like Dube and Kyllington, have graduated from this class so it leaves things a little more bare then it might be otherwise.

Phillips and Gawdin are both over a ppg in the AHL FYI , one was a 7th round pick and one was a free agent signing and Valimaki was a terrific pick at the spot the flames got him at. Considering the Flames graduated many picks to the NHL it’s not shocking that the flames have less blue chip prospects then other teams.

Pelletier imo should undoubtedly be a top 50 prospect. He’s having a superb year


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[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by madmike

The Flames have 10 guys on their NHL roster who are 25 or under (Valimaki would be 11). Most of their top prospects are already in the NHL. If the cupboard is bare now it’s largely because the Flames have drafted well and already emptied it to build the NHL roster.

That's what I think is way more valuable than just prospects lists imo

The athletic had one earlier this year by pronman for u23, which is way more interesting than just ranking who their best players are not in the nhl

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Beninho

Phillips and Gawdin are both over a ppg in the AHL FYI , one was a 7th round pick and one was a free agent signing and Valimaki was a terrific pick at the spot the flames got him at. Considering the Flames graduated many picks to the NHL it’s not shocking that the flames have less blue chip prospects then other teams.

Pelletier imo should undoubtedly be a top 50 prospect. He’s having a superb year


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The is no doubt that the Flames drafting and scouting has been great the last few years. I understand why the cupboards are bare right now.

I know that Phillips and Gawdin are doing well this year. I just don't think either of them will be top 6 forwards. Phillips could prove me wrong, he's had to prove himself at every turn, I wouldn't be the first. Gawdin however, aside from being a little older, he doesn't have great skating. Right now he has a 14.9% shooting percentage, a jump from last years 9.2%. If that is sustainable then he might just carve a career out as a trigger man. Point is, he will live and die by his shot, and I am a little more skeptical of that kind of player.

[Harry Lime]

Recovery from injury has set Matias Emilio Pettersen back a little this year, and he is still doing pretty well. Not including the players that I consider to be graduated (such as Valimaki), IMO he might be the best prospect the Flames have, and once he has an unencumbered year of development, he would certainly be on next years list.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yeah, that's weird. I would also have Zavgorodniy ranked ahead of Gawdin and possibly Nikolayev.

This is how you know we don't have any real prospects at the moment. This sentence, right here. There's probably a ten percent chance that any one of these guys turn into even David Moss. It doesn't matter what order they get ranked in.

[SportsJunky]

The video on that page glitches my computer like crazy. Relax with the automatic videos TSN.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

This is how you know we don't have any real prospects at the moment. This sentence, right here. There's probably a ten percent chance that any one of these guys turn into even David Moss. It doesn't matter what order they get ranked in.

So, these three are the Flames's only prospects?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, these three are the Flames's only prospects?

It means that none of those guys holds significant value around the league. Every other team has their own Gawdin, or a Russian they hope pans out, or a goalie they're high on.

Right now, the Flames have one notable prospect who has yet to play NHL games, and that's Pelletier. It is what it is.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

It means that none of those guys holds significant value around the league. Every other team has their own Gawdin, or a Russian they hope pans out, or a goalie they're high on.

Right now, the Flames have one notable prospect who has yet to play NHL games, and that's Pelletier. It is what it is.

Yes. But one is more than none...

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

This is how you know we don't have any real prospects at the moment...

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes. But one is more than none...

Picking him apart a bit here, no? I understood what he was getting at.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes. But one is more than none...

You're right, my bad. The cup runneth over with blue chip prospects.

[bubbsy]

Of course we have few high probability prospects. The rebuild phase of this generation finished the bottoming out and becoming a playoff hopeful team years ago. Making the playoffs the year after the Bennett draft was fun and all, but one could argue flames didn't get enough or as elite a number of prospects during the bottoming out phase. Flames started making moves (see Hamilton, Hamonic trades) right away to jump out of the rebuild.

Credit to them for not taking the 'suck for a decade' approach to building the team, however, the lack of any real sustained growth and evolving of the team into a real contender is why I think so many of us, well at least myself, are so disappointed and negative. Flames finally looked great last year, won the conference (!!!!!) yet have sat in their hands instead of adding to it (not for a lack of trying by the gm of course, but...). As expected, here we are watching a regression back to the mediocre rather than improving & solidifying the team to a contender.

Anyways, most high end prospects are drafted in the top half of round 1, and if a team scouting is great, in the first round or 2.

Flames haven't drafted in the top half if round 1 in a while now, yet have grabbed guys like valimaki, Anderson, kylington, mangiapane, Dube. Given that track record, I am actually quite comfortable in a non-sexy prospect or 2 in our system to become NHLers. Pelletier, Zavgorodniy, pettersson, Phillips. Maybe not elite, but at least a few of these should round into guys that slot in at low cap players on the roster during their contending window, and that is nothing to sniff at in my opinion.

In summary : drafting and prospects in the system are a far smaller concern for me, than the state of the actual nhl team and their progress/quality given the stage of the team building cycle they are in.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

It's Valimaki no longer considered a prospect?
I get that he's not going to be in the top 50, but I'm surprised that he's not in our top 5.

Valamaki is a prospect and would be in the top 20 at the very least. Maybe he is using the 10 NHL games as a cutoff.

Heinola and Harkins are on the list with 8 NHL games but 19 year old Gustafsson with 22 NHL games is not

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Valamaki is a prospect and would be in the top 20 at the very least. Maybe he is using the 10 NHL games as a cutoff.

Heinola and Harkins are on the list with 8 NHL games but 19 year old Gustafsson with 22 NHL games is not

Erik Brannstrom is on the list and he has played 31 games—seven more than Valimaki. It’s an oversight.