Oil prices drop to under $50/barrel

[RougeUnderoos]

Apparently old George is going to propose cutting gasoline use by 20% over the next ten years in his State of the Union address tonight.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS...otu/index.html

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Lurch

Do we really? Peak gas production for Alberta is already in the past (2001). If coal bed methane gets off the ground in a big way we may be able to stem declines to an extent, but regardless gas will be a declining portion of government revenues over time (flat or declining production, hopefully growing provincial economy).

That has not been proven yet and there are arguements on both sides. The fact is we continually find new fields, driller deeper and aquire gas from places that were to costly before.

Regardless of what I just said....My previous post stated that we had lots of natural gas....and we do....57.9 trillion cubic feet in conventional reserves. That doesn't include coal bed methane. (with some estimates of 500 tcf in coal bed methane) So....not sure why you are trying to pick a fight over "do we really have lots of gas?"

[Lurch]

That has not been proven yet and there are arguements on both sides. The fact is we continually find new fields, driller deeper and aquire gas from places that were to costly before.

There are no arguments on either side - the FACT is Alberta's gas production has declined since 2001. It may increase past its 2001 peak at some point, but 5 years of historical evidence suggest production is declining, despite very strong gas prices during that timeframe.

A further, related fact is that the ability for natural gas to prop up Alberta's economy will decline over time for a simple, mathematical reason. If gas production is flat to declining while the economy grows at 3% to 5%, the relative importance falls very quickly.

As for 'picking a fight', I think it is important to put "a LOT of gas" needs to be put in context. There is physically a big amount of ultimately recoverable gas in the ground, but this thread is mostly about the implications for the provincial economy. In this context, there is no longer a LOT since the annual production is declining both in absolute terms and even moreso in relative terms.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Lurch

There are no arguments on either side - the FACT is Alberta's gas production has declined since 2001. It may increase past its 2001 peak at some point, but 5 years of historical evidence suggest production is declining, despite very strong gas prices during that timeframe.

As for 'picking a fight', I think it is important to put "a LOT of gas" needs to be put in context. There is physically a big amount of ultimately recoverable gas in the ground, but this thread is mostly about the implications for the provincial economy. In this context, there is no longer a LOT since the annual production is declining both in absolute terms and even moreso in relative terms.

Once again people cannot debate on what one poster has actually wrote. All I said is that Alberta has lots of natual gas. We do....it is a fact and you agreed with me. No where did I mention production or the declining of. Did it ever occure to you that many companies have actually capped their gas wells bcause of lower prices? Lower production doesn't equate to lower reserves. It only makes sense to slow production when prices are low.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by fotze

He is right about the production levels and those number are published in a lot of places. I don't necessarily agree that because the rate is heading down (at a VERY shallow slope) that it ceases to be "a Lot".

I agree with you 100%....and I never stated anywhere that production levels haven't declined. That is what I am trying to say....

[Lurch]

He is right about the production levels and those number are published in a lot of places. I don't necessarily agree that because the rate is heading down (at a VERY shallow slope) that it ceases to be "a Lot".

I think there is a key difference between the economic impact of something that is shrinking over time and something that is growing over time. Oil (synthetic and bitumen) is a growth industry, while natural gas/conventional oil is a mature to declining sector within AB. This is especially true relative to the size of the economy.

[Red Mile Style]

[quote=Cowperson;727337]

Originally Posted by Red Mile Style

Cowperson, you are the most disrespectful poster on this forum.

Thanks.

Don't quote me saying things I never said,

You'll note I apologized before you even showed up . . . . apparently exhibiting my lack of class.

don't call me Joy from My Name is Earl and start contributing to the debate rather than making it a petty name-calling match.

Joy is pretty hot . . . . but not very likeable. Sounds like that fit your self-description the other day.

I don't know who you're sleeping with to get that red square, but I got this blue square for telling you to "look out behind you, it's the NEP", so hoping for a second blue square here: go **** yourself.

I can assure you I have no influence over or say in blue and red square rankings and I can add that I took no interest - none - in how you might have been ranked before or after your comments in the Venezuela thread. . . . . . . . . although if someone is actually available for sex on that subject they can put their hand up. I think they're all guys though so I might have to pass.

I have class... I'll be back.

Okey dokey. Hell hath no fury . . . . like Joy. Or Karl Marx.

Cowperson

Your long hair doesn't quite cover your red-neck.

"I have class" meant... I had class to go to. Sorry, I guess they don't have school where you came from and you don't understand all these new-fanangled words.

Yeah, you get away with comparing me to a trailer-trash television personality and have a red square and yet I say "Cowperson, look out behind you, it's the NEP" and I get a blue square. And since all the moderators are apparently male, like you're suggesting, you must really be good at the blow jobs.

I'm not interested in getting to know you personally, at all, so please leave the personal **** away from me. If you think I'm like Joy, after never meeting me nor talking to me, it suddenly makes light of everything you say - it's all your misinformed opinion.

I guess that's how they do it there, right? Just abuse women, right? I mean, hey, it's a girl who's opinion is different than yours, she must not be liked... I'll just mentally attack her so maybe she'll shut up because after all, I can't just go ahead and slap her. Bravo.

[Cowperson]

[quote=Red Mile Style;727527]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Your long hair doesn't quite cover your red-neck.

"I have class" meant... I had class to go to. Sorry, I guess they don't have school where you came from and you don't understand all these new-fanangled words.

Yeah, you get away with comparing me to a trailer-trash television personality and have a red square and yet I say "Cowperson, look out behind you, it's the NEP" and I get a blue square. And since all the moderators are apparently male, like you're suggesting, you must really be good at the blow jobs.

I'm not interested in getting to know you personally, at all, so please leave the personal **** away from me. If you think I'm like Joy, after never meeting me nor talking to me, it suddenly makes light of everything you say - it's all your misinformed opinion.

I guess that's how they do it there, right? Just abuse women, right? I mean, hey, it's a girl who's opinion is different than yours, she must not be liked... I'll just mentally attack her so maybe she'll shut up because after all, I can't just go ahead and slap her. Bravo.

Obviously your post will put both of us in the Calgarypuck Hall Of Fame, easily eclipsing the famous Turekgirl "######bag" charge levelled at Lanny some years ago.

For that, I thank you.

Strangely, you're not exactly disabusing the Joy comparison either.

Cowperson

[Tron_fdc]

Calling out Cowperson!

*grabs some popcorn*

[Red Mile Style]

[quote=Cowperson;727552]

Originally Posted by Red Mile Style

Obviously your post will put both of us in the Calgarypuck Hall Of Fame, easily eclipsing the famous Turekgirl "######bag" charge levelled at Lanny some years ago.

For that, I thank you.

Strangely, you're not exactly disabusing the Joy comparison either.

Cowperson

Strangely, you're not exactly disabusing the dumb redneck comparision either.

Blue square this:
Cowperson, look out behind you!!!!! It's the NEP!!!!

[Tron_fdc]

BTW has anyone noticed the spike in the stock market today? I haven't checked volumes, but a few friends mentioned the trading frenzy on companies up north.

Could the Americans be buying us while the prices are low?

[Lurch]

Big rumour going around that Nexen is going to be taken out by Total.

Edit to add: I heard the rumoured price is $90 - about a 30% premium over what they traded at earlier in the week.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by Lurch

Big rumour going around that Nexen is going to be taken out by Total.

Yeah, I heard Nexen was frantic this morning. Who's Total? I don't work in the industry, so I don't know the "lingo" you people use.

[Cowperson]

[quote=Red Mile Style;727561]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Strangely, you're not exactly disabusing the dumb redneck comparision either.

Blue square this:
Cowperson, look out behind you!!!!! It's the NEP!!!!

Wow, you sure got me there.



Calling out Cowperson!

*grabs some popcorn*

What? Again?

Cowperson

[Suave]

Originally Posted by fotze

Totalfinaelf I think is the big name, a huge french oil company that just entered Alberta for the first time when they took over some heavy oil company last year that I can;t remember the name of.

They took out Deer Creek.

[jolinar of malkshor]

One think that knowone else has mentioned regarding the diversity of Alberta's Economy....once the oil and gas is gone....we have enough land to grow as much ethonal as our heart desires....

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Red Mile Style

Alberta could pretty much dictate to the oil companies what they want them to do. How much they want them to drill, where, when, they could even tell them that they have to start building an infrastructure for green energies if they wanted to. Alberta has the oil companies by the balls and yet it seems the other way around. Again, royalties are the lowest in the world. Tell me why American oil is worth more than Albertan? I think Alberta could pull some clout, if they wanted to, but I don't think they do.

Again, I am confused.

I don't get it. I just, don't get it.

I'm not sure if this is serious or sarcastic. I can't tell. But if it is sarcastic, the EUB does regulate all those elements to a far better degree then in the United States.

Special spacing units for whether the well is an oil or a gas well, target restrictions and regulations controlling what substance is produced from the ground in what order are all good examples of how the government controls the oil and gas industry.

If you don't already know any of this, I bet you'd be surprised at how much is actually regulated in Alberta.

And people are concerned about the industry's eventual decline. But, as is disclosed in "1,000 Barrels a Second", forms of energy evolve over time as people manipulate resources to meet their needs.

It wasn't THAT long ago that whale blubber and wax were major forms of energy. Humans manage to evolve their requirement and form of energy over time to match current societal trends and consumptions.

Finally, sometimes wind isn't such a great substitute for energy. When there isn't wind there isn't any energy to be created.

Right now people are addicted to oil and gas, if the demand is there, why would the energy driven economy of Alberta switch?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

One think that knowone else has mentioned regarding the diversity of Alberta's Economy....once the oil and gas is gone....we have enough land to grow as much ethonal as our heart desires....

Ethanol is extremely inefficient, and even in regions where it is grown (Brazil), it is still combined with SOME oil and gas (at least with automobiles).

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Ethanol is extremely inefficient, and even in regions where it is grown (Brazil), it is still combined with SOME oil and gas (at least with automobiles).

The engergy potential and efficency of ethonal will do quite all right for automobiles. Just like many of the new alternatives to fossile fuels, this technology will take time to master. And yes...they do mix some fossile fuels with ethonal....but when they can reduce that down to 15%....it is a pretty good start.

This is only the beginning and this technology will only become better and more efficient. But lets start a fight over my comment because it is not completely 100% free of fossile fuels. I tell ya.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Red Mile Style

Every thing you're saying here isn't fact. I have just as much proof (if not more) that we are at the oil peak right now as you have for saying it will run out in 150 years. But, at least you realize that the oil will run out, which most people just don't realize (or care).

I don't see how a North American version on OPEC CAN NOT NOT do anything. I will take the ignorant Western philosophy of if we want something, we take it. If anything I would like you to explain this point the most. I am not sure why Canadians/North Americans/Westerners allow OPEC to dictate to us what our oil is worth, but if you're happy with the amount of power foreign governments have over our markets, yay.

I'm not really sure what you mean about the royalty structure being "renowed" either... it's the lowest on the planet. The obvious place for the highest is Sweden or Norway, and even the US has higher royalties than Alberta. The Heritage Fund... if you feel confident that that will sustain Alberta, great.

OK. I've bumped into you before, and I know how this is going to go. So I'm going to be careful here.

This isn't teasing, it just my honest opinion: There is a healthy gap between what exists, and what you believe in some cases, and a big gap between your belief of your understanding of topics, and complete understanding of topics. Sorry, I just believe this to be true.

First the peak oil theory you speak of is a scenario, and that is all. Yes large fields in the middle east are showing signs of depletion, but technology is place new reserves on books that nobody had thought was economical in the past. IE Alberta is second on earth of oil reserves only to Saudi Arabia. And likely in 5-10 years we'll pass them as well. Now we are moving from light sweet, to heavy sour, which means it is lower value crude, but in some cases we are just touching the tip of the iceberg. Further, over the next few years you will hear more about Coal Bed Methane and 10-15 years later, gas hydrates. If we can find a way to economically recover hydrates we will be able to increase the worlds gas reserves by 2 to 10 times what they are today. Peak oil is a trendy topic in the media, usually when you hear someone say peak oil you can tell that they are an outsider who has a passing interest in oil and gas.

As for OPEC, you need to understand that any large group that gets together can control prices, US/Can could control prices (by manipulating supply) as can OPEC, but BTW, OPEC would be 5X bigger. All any supplier can do to manage prices is restrict supply, but why would North America do that? They go flat out all the time. What would you propose this little coalition could do to help prices? Whatever they can do, they are doing already. And with that light, AB has renowed royalties because they are cheap up front to foster development but once projects pay out they increase sizably. So the goals of your coalition are met by Alberta's Royalty structure. Now is AB planning long term very well, no, they suck, but that's a different topic. They could be much better under the existing royalty structure.

You need to think about what a coalition's goals are, and what they could do to meet them. I presume you want us to manage price, but there is no way in he// that can be done other than manage supply, and I suppose improve logistics, but that's not a significant lever and our infrastructure is not bad as it is.