Caps had been repeatedly bested by Crosby and Malkin two elite players so I don't see it as a good comparison. When Washington finally beat the Pens they won the Cup.
That was always the narrative but that was just because the two years directly before winning the cup they had lost to the Penguins who went on to win the cup.
But before that they had lost to a wide variety of teams: the New York Rangers three times, Tampa, Montreal, Pittsburgh, and Philly.
It wasn't just the Penguins that they had a hard time beating in the Ovechkin era up until the cup win.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 10-31-2019 at 11:37 AM.
Caps had been repeatedly bested by Crosby and Malkin two elite players so I don't see it as a good comparison. When Washington finally beat the Pens they won the Cup.
And arguably what it took to beat them was the emergence of a second point per game centre to match them.
That was always the narrative but that was just because the two years directly before winning the cup they had lost to the Penguins who went on to win the cup.
But before that they had lost to a wide variety of teams: the New York Rangers three times, Tampa, Montreal, Pittsburgh, and Philly.
It wasn't just the Penguins that they had a hard time beating in the Ovechkin era up until the cup win.
They also lost to the Pens in 2009. You're making a fair point but I'd argue the Caps had some pretty bad luck outside of running in the Penguins which owned them until recently. Montreal has no business beating Washington for example.
But I think my point still stands, Washington has elite players including arguably the best goal scorer ever. Think about the rare times Calgary has seen success, elite players. Kipper was a goaltending god Iggy was nearly unstoppable. 1989 speaks for itself.
We don't have anything close to that now, IMO Gaudreau is the only elite player on the roster.
Most gms are more effective when allowed to manage for the long term
The pattern of constant changes is a common attribute of organizations that don’t succeed
Lead to different outcome
This.
Building a winner RARELY happens with one wave of the sword. It requires patience and continued work. It is not an exact science, as players can be significantly better or worse from year to year. The best franchises have continuity at the top and are given time to succeed.
In Canada, there is constant pressure to win, resulting in constant pressure on the coaches and management. As a result, LOTS of turnover, very few contending teams, no teams being consistent contenders, and (most importantly) no cups since 1993.
The GM doesn't suck, just because a player is having a worse year than he had last year.
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This is the one that stands out to me too - another top 6 forward would be huge for this team.
The Bennett pick isn't even the one that makes me mad in that draft - since him or Dal Colle were pretty much the consensus picks at number 4 / 5.
Would I love to have Ehlers, Larkin, or Pastrnak...of course but those guys were never really in the discussion at #4. Bennett was the right pick at the time. He was the skilled, gritty center this team needed, he was highly touted, but he just failed to develop (Whether that's on him or the organization is a different question).
The two that piss me off in that draft are:
1) Taking McDonald over Demko when Demko was the #1 ranked goalie in that draft.
2) Not drafting Point and instead drafting Hunter Smith and Brandon Hickey. Point was the local kid who was rumored to have been public about wanting to play in Calgary, and who lots of media members were clamoring for the Flames to draft.
Agreed, some fans like to think "what if" surrounding Kadri, my "what ifs" mostly surround that draft (neither is productive and I just didn't want to dwell too much) but...
Point, Demko and Bennett at full potential, that would have changed the complexity of this team for over a decade.
Personally I still don't think you need to go full scorched earth re-build here. I look at the Blues and Capitals as the frame work. Be aggressive in trades and add to the core.
Flames have some key elements that are good pieces for this team long term, whether they are core pieces or strong support pieces.
Core Forwards: Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Monahan, Lindholm
Support Forwards: Backlund, Mangiapane, Dube, (Also Pelletier, Pettersen as blue chipers)
Then I think you have deadweight long term in Lucic who is likely unmoveable.
So overall as pieces that I think this team will have long term you have 8 forwards, 5 dmen and a goalie.
So then you look at potential moveable pieces or pieces that might hold value in a trade or are expiring after this season.
Forward
-Ryan - 2 years at $3.125M - Trade
-Bennett - 2 years at $2.55M (RFA) - Trade to Montreal for 2020 2nd
-Frolik - 1 year at $4.3M
-Jankowski - 1 year at $1.675M (RFA) - Trade
Defense
-Brodie - 1 year at $4.65M
-Hanifin - 1 year at $3.85M
Flames will have some cap space to be able to make moves to add to this roster
Right wing: Andrew Mangiapane ($3,000,000) - Farm Team Call Up (Tuuola/Phillips) ($809,167)
Centre: Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Elias Lindholm ($4,850,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Farm Team Call Up (Gawdin/Quine) ($1,000,000)
Left wing: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Matthew Tkachuk ($7,000,000) - Dillon Dubé ($778,333) - Milan Lucic ($5,250,000)
RD: Rasmus Andersson ($3,500,000) - Juuso Välimäki ($894,166)
LD: Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Noah Hanifin ($4,950,000) - Oliver Kylington ($2,500,000) - Alexander Yelesin ($925,000)
GOALTENDER (2)
David Rittich ($2,750,000) - Cheap Backup ($1,000,000)
BUYOUTS (2)
Troy Brouwer ($1,500,000) - Michael Stone ($1,166,667)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 18
Salary Cap: $82,000,000
Cap Hit: $67,098,333
Cap Space: $14,901,667
That $14M could go a long way to improving the Roster next season as long as they are willing to maybe make some tough decisions this year to try to stock pile some assets. Also I feel like the team should be willing to move out anybody from the core, just need to be sure to get a good return back on those players.
Personally I think they likely look at UFA like Radko Gudas on defense since hes a tough d-man who can actually play and PK. Then use the cap space to add a top 6 forward (RW/C), and a 3rd line forward (RW).
Really what we need this season / next offseason is our version of the TJ Oshie/Lars Eller or Ryan O'Reilly/Brayden Schenn trades. Adding those final top 6 pieces to the core without really giving up anything of consequence of the roster.
This was the best thread for this posting?
1) The goalie spot is the most important on any winning team.... Rittich is just barely an NHL starter. Elliott and Hiller were far more established and better goalies when they joined the Flames than Rittich is now. Hiller's worst year out of the 7 before he became a Flame was the same as what Rittich is having this year and last.
2) Why in the world would the Flames pay Andersson 3.5 M and Kylington 2.5M when they have basically the same bargaining power as Mangiapane ( 1 yr deal $715 70K in minors) who somehow you have at 3M. Is this based on his 2 goals 4pts in his 12 games since he signed his 1 year qualifying offer?
And arguably what it took to beat them was the emergence of a second point per game centre to match them.
This is 100% it - but it also shows why a scorched earth re-build isn't always required.
You need to be patient enough to draft well, and make smart trades to improve on a core. You can't just rebuild every 5 years because you lost a playoff series.
For Washington it was adding to the core with strong late firsts, and 2nd round picks. They had the Backstrom/Ovi core and then added.
1) 2008 - NHL Draft - Carlson with the 27th Overall pick
2) 2009 - NHL Draft - Dmitri Orlov with the 55th Overall pick
3) 2010 - NHL Draft - Kuznetsov with the 26th overall pick
4) 2012 - NHL Draft - Wilson with the 16th overall pick
Then they made a really good trade getting TJ Oshie for Troy Brouwer and a 3rd.
Same thing with the Blues. They had Pietrangelo, Schwartz, and Tarasenko as the core with the earlier 1st round picks and then added to it with smart drafting.
1) 2012 - NHL Draft - Parayko with the 86th overall pick
2) 2014 - NHL Draft - Barbashev with the 33rd overall pick
3) 2015 - NHL Draft - Dunn with the 56th overall pick
4) 2016 - NHL Draft - Thompson with the 26th overall pick
5) 2017 - NHL Draft - Thomas with the 20th overall pick
Then they made a really good trade to get O'Reilly for Thompson, a 1st and a bunch of dead weight. Schenn trade was good too but two firsts is probably pretty fair value and not a steal.
Issue with the Flames was they wasted too much asset capital to bring in Hamonic, and I thought that from the second the deal happened. A 1st and 2 2nds was too much for him, especially because since 2015 I feel like Treliving and this scouting group have been drafting much better. That was on area where Treliving was impatient and it really hurt us.
Considering he didn't move a 1st last year, or this offseason, I'm hoping that he's starting to be more patient on that front now too.
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1) The goalie spot is the most important on any winning team.... Rittich is just barely an NHL starter. Elliott and Hiller were far more established and better goalies when they joined the Flames than Rittich is now. Hiller's worst year out of the 7 before he became a Flame was the same as what Rittich is having this year and last.
2) Why in the world would the Flames pay Andersson 3.5 M and Kylington 2.5M when they have basically the same bargaining power as Mangiapane ( 1 yr deal $715 70K in minors) who somehow you have at 3M. Is this based on his 2 goals 4pts in his 12 games since he signed his 1 year qualifying offer?
Well people were talking about going scorched earth rebuild in this thread so sure.
1) He has been fine this season as our starter which is pretty good for a young guy in first 12 games in the role. Guess the Blues should have traded for a goalie midway through last season since Jordan Binnington wasn't proven and had no history as a starter.
2) It was just conservative placeholders - if they come in less then that's perfect, means the Flames will have even more than $14M to work with which makes my point even more.
This is 100% it - but it also shows why a scorched earth re-build isn't always required.
You need to be patient enough to draft well, and make smart trades to improve on a core. You can't just rebuild every 5 years because you lost a playoff series.
For Washington it was adding to the core with strong late firsts, and 2nd round picks. They had the Backstrom/Ovi core and then added.
1) 2008 - NHL Draft - Carlson with the 27th Overall pick
2) 2009 - NHL Draft - Dmitri Orlov with the 55th Overall pick
3) 2010 - NHL Draft - Kuznetsov with the 26th overall pick
4) 2012 - NHL Draft - Wilson with the 16th overall pick
Then they made a really good trade getting TJ Oshie for Troy Brouwer and a 3rd.
Same thing with the Blues. They had Pietrangelo, Schwartz, and Tarasenko as the core with the earlier 1st round picks and then added to it with smart drafting.
1) 2012 - NHL Draft - Parayko with the 86th overall pick
2) 2014 - NHL Draft - Barbashev with the 33rd overall pick
3) 2015 - NHL Draft - Dunn with the 56th overall pick
4) 2016 - NHL Draft - Thompson with the 26th overall pick
5) 2017 - NHL Draft - Thomas with the 20th overall pick
Then they made a really good trade to get O'Reilly for Thompson, a 1st and a bunch of dead weight. Schenn trade was good too but two firsts is probably pretty fair value and not a steal.
Issue with the Flames was they wasted too much asset capital to bring in Hamonic, and I thought that from the second the deal happened. A 1st and 2 2nds was too much for him, especially because since 2015 I feel like Treliving and this scouting group have been drafting much better. That was on area where Treliving was impatient and it really hurt us.
Considering he didn't move a 1st last year, or this offseason, I'm hoping that he's starting to be more patient on that front now too.
Unfortunately the trend I see in your write up (that I completely agree with) is the dye is cast years in advance on those things.
Consistently drafting in the 1st round, 5-10 years out from winning it all.
When you go back to the Flames draft history and look at those drafts, there's no Kuznetsov on the horizon for Calgary in the next year or two. That player for Calgary is Baertschi, Poirier, Hunter Smith, Sam Bennett.
I think the problem is that the Flames have on balance reached their peak (given ages of players; sure, some should improve further, but others will now surely regress) and there is absolutely nothing coming from the farm, except filler (barring unforeseen evolutionary jumps), and that peak is a decent NHL team. Last season the Flames were surely as good as the Blues, but we peaked in December and they peaked in May. The Blues just happened to find a goalie in their system to address their main weakness, while we were unable to tweak our team to push it over the top. The NHL, because of the cap, is basically 20-some average teams, plus a few really good teams and a few really bad teams. The Flames are right in the fat part of the curve, maybe even on the positive slope, and sometimes lightning strikes and an average team can win all the flips (to use a poker term) - it happened last year, it happened in 2006 and it happened in 1993 if you really want to reach back. It almost happened in 2004. If the owners are satisfied with that, there is not really a whole lot we can do.
I think the time to win was last year. But because of Brouwer, Neal and Stone we couldn't do anything. There is no help in the pipeline - just replacement players. So, what should we do? To give him credit, Treliving really tried to push this thing over the line, but his own FA f***-ups were his undoing, and he could not overcome them. Hamonic was a costly mistake that robbed the future and he MUST NOT be signed to an extension - that will be another Stone. There is no way anyone in the organization will sign up for a teardown, so I think the only thing that can be done is to try to re-tool on the fly - shed as much as possible to clear up space and gather draft picks and hope that you can use the flexibility for a re-load and another go.
I think the problem is that the Flames have on balance reached their peak (given ages of players; sure, some should improve further, but others will now surely regress) and there is absolutely nothing coming from the farm, except filler (barring unforeseen evolutionary jumps), and that peak is a decent NHL team. Last season the Flames were surely as good as the Blues, but we peaked in December and they peaked in May. The Blues just happened to find a goalie in their system to address their main weakness, while we were unable to tweak our team to push it over the top. The NHL, because of the cap, is basically 20-some average teams, plus a few really good teams and a few really bad teams. The Flames are right in the fat part of the curve, maybe even on the positive slope, and sometimes lightning strikes and an average team can win all the flips (to use a poker term) - it happened last year, it happened in 2006 and it happened in 1993 if you really want to reach back. It almost happened in 2004. If the owners are satisfied with that, there is not really a whole lot we can do.
I think the time to win was last year. But because of Brouwer, Neal and Stone we couldn't do anything. There is no help in the pipeline - just replacement players. So, what should we do? To give him credit, Treliving really tried to push this thing over the line, but his own FA f***-ups were his undoing, and he could not overcome them. Hamonic was a costly mistake that robbed the future and he MUST NOT be signed to an extension - that will be another Stone. There is no way anyone in the organization will sign up for a teardown, so I think the only thing that can be done is to try to re-tool on the fly - shed as much as possible to clear up space and gather draft picks and hope that you can use the flexibility for a re-load and another go.
retools don't work because of the damage done do the system trying to go for it.
In 2010 when the Caps drafted Kuznetsov 26th overall the flames didn't make their first pick until they drafted Max Reinhart at 64th overall.
Well in 7 years when Tkachuk is 28, Martin Pospisil is going to be the best player from his draft class for Calgary after being their first pick in that draft at #105.
It's absolutely critical to sell hard to regain picks so that your rebuild doesn't run out of steam like what is happening to Calgary over the last 2-3 seasons.
retools don't work because of the damage done do the system trying to go for it.
In 2010 when the Caps drafted Kuznetsov 26th overall the flames didn't make their first pick until they drafted Max Reinhart at 64th overall.
Well in 7 years when Tkachuk is 28, Martin Pospisil is going to be the best player from his draft class for Calgary after being their first pick in that draft at #105.
It's absolutely critical to sell hard to regain picks so that your rebuild doesn't run out of steam like what is happening to Calgary over the last 2-3 seasons.
I agree completely. We should have won last season, but the dead cap killed us, plus subpar goaltending. The Hamonic trade and the said dead cap will now ensure that we cannot do much going forward, absent miracles and true wizardry.
Unfortunately the trend I see in your write up (that I completely agree with) is the dye is cast years in advance on those things.
Consistently drafting in the 1st round, 5-10 years out from winning it all.
When you go back to the Flames draft history and look at those drafts, there's no Kuznetsov on the horizon for Calgary in the next year or two. That player for Calgary is Baertschi, Poirier, Hunter Smith, Sam Bennett.
Depends - you could say this rebuild started with the Gaudreau/Baertschi picks in 2011.
For Washington the Ovi/Backstrom picks were in 2004/2006 - they won the cup 13 years later, which is a bit of a stretch that you wouldn't want to follow but does show patience.
Pietrangelo was drafted top 5 in 2008 - they just won the cup last season.
If the core of early picks starts with Gaudreau (2011), Monahan (2013), Lindholm (2013), Tkachuk (2016), and Hanifin (2015).
Then the late picks that add to the core are Andersson (2015), Kylington (2015), Mangiapane (2015), Dube (2016)
Means that we just need guys like Valimaki (2017), Pettersen (2018), Zavgorodniy (2018), and Pelletier (2019) to be the pieces that help add to the core.
Plus another good trade where you fleece another team to add to our top 6 like both Washington and St.Louis had. That Hamonic trade really does hurt us though. He was never an impact player here, he is gone after this season, and there is a gap in the prospect pool now because we are missing that 1st and 2 seconds. That trade and then nothing substantial coming from our early picks in the 2014 draft is what sets us behind right now.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 10-31-2019 at 12:27 PM.
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Depends - you could say this rebuild started with the Gaudreau/Baertschi picks in 2011.
For Washington the Ovi/Backstrom picks were in 2004/2006 - they won the cup 13 years later, which is a bit of a stretch that you wouldn't want to follow but does show patience.
Pietrangelo was drafted top 5 in 2008 - they just won the cup last season.
If the core of early picks starts with Gaudreau (2011), Monahan (2013), Lindholm (2013), Tkachuk (2016), and Hanifin (2015).
Then the late picks that add to the core are Andersson (2015), Kylington (2015), Mangiapane (2015), Dube (2016)
Means that we just need guys like Valimaki (2017), Pettersen (2018), Zavgorodniy (2018), and Pelletier (2019) to be the pieces that help add to the core.
Plus another good trade where you fleece another team to add to our top 6 like both Washington and St.Louis had.
Except that Gaudreau and Monahan are no ovi and backstrom.
I think the team needs major changes, yeah. You're also thinking this is one month in a season, this is basically the last part of last year, the playoffs and now continuing into this season. And even that stretch is just a reappearance of issues we've seen before interrupted by a stellar section of last season. The playoffs should have put the fear of god into the management team of this franchise, because it reaffirmed a lot of the questions that have been lingering for a while around the heart of this team.
Do we want to be a middle of the pack regular season team or do we want to win? If we want to win we need big piece, fundamental changes on this roster.
Unfortunately I think the ownership is content with a decent turnout in the regular season and some playoff games and don't want to take the chance to restructure and go for it.
Can you give a hypothetical example of what you mean? Is it trading Gaudreau? Is it trading everyone but Tkachuk?
I just think writing this team off completely is a mistake. Not saying this current group is winning a cup.
I was too young to remember 89 and wasn’t a hardcore fan until 2004. The current group we have is the best core of players in the last 20+ years. Most of our players are still young. I am not opposed to changes but what changes do you make? Realistically any seismic moves happen in the summer.
This team has their future captain in Tkachuk and if they shifted to rebuild o doubt he wants to stay through that.
Yeah. Had that in there but deleted it in an edit. Their top end guys are truly elite where as ours are just “good”.
Think is the Blues team didn’t have an Ovi or Backstrom either - so multiple ways to win in this league.
Point is just that scorched earth rebuild isn’t the right move at this point.
The Blues were a fluke - they had a lot of really good players, they were rugged, and they found a superstar goalie on the garbage pile just in the nick of time. Kind of like the Hab fluke in 1993 (Binnington is obviously no Roy, but he was Roy for all intents and purposes last season).
The Blues just happened to find a goalie in their system to address their main weakness, while we were unable to tweak our team to push it over the top. The NHL, because of the cap, is basically 20-some average teams, plus a few really good teams and a few really bad teams. The Flames are right in the fat part of the curve, maybe even on the positive slope, and sometimes lightning strikes and an average team can win all the flips (to use a poker term) - it happened last year, it happened in 2006 and it happened in 1993 if you really want to reach back. It almost happened in 2004. If the owners are satisfied with that, there is not really a whole lot we can do. 
