31 Thoughts - Oct 31

[colbym72]

11. The night before the Heritage Classic, Calgary captain Mark Giordano preached a little bit of patience. “I’ve been on teams that played worse than this one,” he said, “that weren’t 6-5-1.”

Both Giordano and Travis Hamonic discounted the idea the Flames were still recovering from the playoff loss to Colorado, but did admit that when things go badly, they’ve had trouble recovering. Then, against both Winnipeg and Carolina, they lost late 1-0 leads, getting just one point out of four. Peters is clearly unhappy with what he’s seeing.

GM Brad Treliving isn’t afraid of change. I don’t get the sense anything is imminent, but he’ll look to see what’s out there. Johhny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are struggling. Heading into Saturday’s game, Gaudreau led the league in zone entries (credit: Sportlogiq), which is expected. However, you can see he’s not himself when it comes to making plays once he’s there. That has a huge effect on Monahan, who needs to get it in prime scoring areas to finish.

12. Giordano is convinced he can be an even better defensive player than he was last year, when he won the Norris Trophy. “I’m not sure I’ll get 74 points, though,” he said with a smile. “A lot of things went my way.”

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...nsions-rising/

[Textcritic]

Is Elloitte Friedman writing from the future?

[Tyler]

Fun fact, Gaudreau is also leading the league in offensive zone dump outs after 800 unsuccessful short side wrist shots

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

People act like this team didn't completely suck at the beginning of last year as well.

[Toonage]

This season 6-6-2 through 14 games

Last season 8-5-1 through 14 games

Really not that far behind

[Jiri Hrdina]

The Kevin Fiala mention stood out to me. Possibly a guy to target?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Toonage

This season 6-6-2 through 14 games

Last season 8-5-1 through 14 games

Really not that far behind

If they don't blow the leads in the last 2, they are 8-5-1

I know, they DID blow them. But that's the difference between this season and last, to this point. Not much.

[colbym72]

Its not about the record for me, its what it looks like on the ice. It has been ugly

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Toonage

This season 6-6-2 through 14 games

Last season 8-5-1 through 14 games

Really not that far behind

Last season there was the China trip, new coach, several new players so the learning curve was there. This year it is the same group, and system. People are right to be nervous because this team has followed up the or 2 previous solid seasons with duds.

This team could still go on a run and figure it out. Watching them right now though it doesn’t feel like that is going to happen any time soon

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Last season there was the China trip, new coach, several new players so the learning curve was there. This year it is the same group, and system. People are right to be nervous because this team has followed up the or 2 previous solid seasons with duds.

This team could still go on a run and figure it out. Watching them right now though it doesn’t feel like that is going to happen any time soon

Absolutely. There is a consistent pattern with this core. Great year, poor year, great year, poor year.

If someone were to suggest changing the core of this team based on that alone, I would agree. This, to me, suggests that the core players are not easily motivated and struggle to be consistent. That's not a winning formula.

The question is then who are the biggest culprits? That I don't have an answer for, but I bet coaching and management have a good idea of it. I suspect that if they're still around .500 by Christmas, Tree will make a blockbuster deal to shake up this core. I'm thinking a prominent forward AND defenseman sent out in a deal like the Carolina deal last year.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Toonage

This season 6-6-2 through 14 games

Last season 8-5-1 through 14 games

Really not that far behind

Mike Smith had an 878 sv% through 9 games last year.

Rittich has a 910 sv% through 11 this year.

The substance of the record is totally different.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Mike Smith had an 878 sv% through 9 games last year.

Rittich has a 910 sv% through 11 this year.

The substance of the record is totally different.

Yea - exactly.

The Flames last year were winning despite the poor goal tending from smith.

This year, Rittich has been pretty great. Without him, we'd be no where near the record we are at.

Offense is our biggest problem right now. And the biggest culprits behind it are Gaudreau and Monahan.

Lindholm and Tkachuk are more or less on the same pace as they were last year. Backlund, fairly similar as well.

But unless the two guys who put up 70 goals between the two of them last year start to pick it up, this team isn't going very far.

[SuperMatt18]

It’s actually pretty close.

Last year through 14 games (5v5 stats):

CF%: 53.7%
xGF%: 49.5%
GF:29
GA:29
Save %: .915
Shooting %: 8.7

PP Time: 96:57
PP Goals: 9
PP Sht PCT: 10.5%

PK Time: 69:44
SH GA: 13
SH Sv PCT: .803

This year through 14 games:

CF%: 51.1%
xGF%: 50.3%
GF: 23
GA: 29
Save %: .910
Shooting %: 6.97%

PP Time: 78:03
PP GF: 8
PP Sht PCT: 12.2%

PK Time: 91:36
PK GA: 7
PK SV PCT: .901

Couple of big things:

- 5V5 shooting percentage is way down, shoot the same percentage they shot last year to start the season at 5v5 and they have 29 goals just like last year

- Special teams differential is horrible this year which I think speaks to effort in a way. Not drawing enough and taking too many.

-PP and PK are both performing much better though than the start of last year though to keep the actual GF/GA impacts close. (Mostly through better shooting and save percentages).

I think people are actually remembering game 20-50 of last year where our offence really took off and are forgetting that it wasn’t a smooth start last year either.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Yea - exactly.

The Flames last year were winning despite the poor goal tending from smith.

This year, Rittich has been pretty great. Without him, we'd be no where near the record we are at.

Offense is our biggest problem right now. And the biggest culprits behind it are Gaudreau and Monahan.

Lindholm and Tkachuk are more or less on the same pace as they were last year. Backlund, fairly similar as well.

But unless the two guys who put up 70 goals between the two of them last year start to pick it up, this team isn't going very far.

This time last year the flames had 4 players scoring at a point per game Pace with gio at 11 points in 13 games. Lindholm had 8 goals.

This yea they have 0. Tkachuk leads the team with 11 in 14. Lindholm has 8 goals.

[BrennyBaller]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

This time last year the flames had 4 players scoring at a point per game Pace with gio at 11 points in 13 games. Lindholm had 8 goals.

This yea they have 0. Tkachuk leads the team with 11 in 14. Lindholm has 8 goals.

Gaudreau leads them with 11 in 14 actually

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by BrennyBaller

Gaudreau leads them with 11 in 14 actually

Correct, I accidentally shifted columns.

[IliketoPuck]

The caveat is sample size, of course, because Johnny could pop next game for four points and be right back in line with where we need him to be.

Monahan has been a slow starter for much of his career as well, based on my recollection.

I'm not ready to write them off yet, but it is some pretty uninteresting hockey to watch right now.

[SuperMatt18]

Since a lot of the talk has been about the first line specifically lets look at them through 14 games last year vs 14 games this year.

First 14 games last year:

CF%: 49.8%
xGF%: 42.4%

Shots For: 63
Scoring Chances For: 63
GF: 8
Shooting Percentage: 12.7%

Shots Against: 79
Scoring Chances Against:80
GA: 10
Save Percentage: .873

This year:

CF%: 55.7%
xGF%: 52.3% ]

Shots For: 77
Scoring Chances For: 65
GF: 6
Shooting Percentage: 7.8%

Shots Against: 62
Scoring Chances Against: 54
GA: 5
Save Percentage: .919

Considering the coaching staff had asked them to commit more to a 200ft game, the results look like they were doing exactly what the coach wanted them to do.

More shots for, fewer shots against, similar scoring chance numbers while giving up way less, and actually +1 instead of -2 at 5v5 last year. They were playing a way better 200 ft game. The shooting percentage just cratered and pucks aren't going in for them.

[BrennyBaller]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

The caveat is sample size, of course, because Johnny could pop next game for four points and be right back in line with where we need him to be.

Monahan has been a slow starter for much of his career as well, based on my recollection.

I'm not ready to write them off yet, but it is some pretty uninteresting hockey to watch right now.

Monahans October stats:
2013-14: 12 GP 6G-4A-10P
2014-15: 12GP 3G-3A-6P
2015-16: 12GP 2G-5A-7P
2016-17: 10GP 4G-0A-4P
2017-18: 12GP 6G-4A-10P
2018-19: 13GP 5G-9A-14P
2019-20: 14GP 2G-6A-8P

Every season he's been right around 30G and 70P, so I'd say he's pretty on par, other than the past 2 seasons where he came out of the gates great.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Last season there was the China trip, new coach, several new players so the learning curve was there. This year it is the same group, and system. People are right to be nervous because this team has followed up the or 2 previous solid seasons with duds.

This team could still go on a run and figure it out. Watching them right now though it doesn’t feel like that is going to happen any time soon

Watching them last year at this time it sort of felt the same way.

Its a different kind of crappy, but the bottom line points wise is that they aren't far behind.