GT: Canadian Federal Election 2019

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

She won that riding by an average of 8 points in the last 3 elections and lost this one by 15. I'm sure Scheer wasn't the only factor, but considering she was a fairly popular MP with little baggage, it sure seems like he played a role.

So your viewpoint is wishful thinking.

[Fuzz]

The Fonz-

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec.../2019/results/

Scroll down to "regions" and you can select each province. It gives you percentages. If you want raw numbers it looks like you have to hover over the graph.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

So rube, you are basically just conducting surface-level analysis here. The major difference is that party preference has basically crystallized on the right, while progressive party preferences remain highly volatile. Neither of the two large parties is able to make a strong plea for the other party's voters to switch allegiances. This has significant ramifications for the constitutional and national unity of the country.

Yep, I realized after your other post that we were talking about two different things here.

[Flash Walken]

Climate Change is the important social issue that will drive canadian votes into the hands of the Liberals and NDP on an increasingly larger scale for the next several election cycles.

Growing support nationally will have to come at the expense of losing support among not only their base rank and file voters, but more importantly their main source of election, fundraising and governing financing.

It's a catch 22 when you rely on social conservatism, because social progress marches ever on.

Mulroney never would've stood a chance in Canadian elections had he been a vocal backer of South African apartheid. It's just one of countless examples.

[peter12]

One of the takeaways here is that I think Justin Trudeau's celebrity is gone. He is just a normal PM now - and not a very good one at that - who is dealing with one of the toughest federal situations that we have seen since 1993. Chretien was up to the challenge then, and may have destroyed the LPC in the process.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

link, for that wall of text?

That's your response to someone that takes the time to spoon-feed you an explanation of something you clearly have a poor understanding of?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Climate Change is the important social issue that will drive canadian votes into the hands of the Liberals and NDP on an increasingly larger scale for the next several election cycles.

Growing support nationally will have to come at the expense of losing support among not only their base rank and file voters, but more importantly their main source of election, fundraising and governing financing.

It's a catch 22 when you rely on social conservatism, because social progress marches ever on.

Mulroney never would've stood a chance in Canadian elections had he been a vocal backer of South African apartheid. It's just one of countless examples.

Yeah, I agree and I said this many times to my colleagues during the election. The next election, whenever that is, will be the climate change election. No question that all parties need to come with something serious or be left behind.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Lisa Raitt losing her seat should be perhaps the biggest wake up call for Conservatives. Canada lost a very good MP because of who the CPC put forward as their leader.

So one of the CPC's more progressive candidates loses her seat and that should be seen as a wake-up call to the Conservatives?

[bob-loblaw]

To minimize chances of political interference, why can't the Attorney General, Revenue, etc. be more independent like the Bank of Canada is? Politics shouldn't be involved in deciding who should or shouldn't be prosecuted, so why even give a ruling party the chance to appoint the minister?

Also, if you are a party that wants to send members to the House of Commons, the party should have to run candidates in 50% of the ridings in every province. The chance of being a national power broker with only a regional power base defeats the purpose of being equal in anything - power, money, etc.

[FlamesAddiction]

Alberta and Saskatchewan wouldn't need to wast money on elections if they were a separate country. They could adopt a one-party system.

[Jacks]

Does anyone know where I could find actual vote #s, by province?

BC/AB/SK/MB seats ended up:

CPC - 71
LPC - 15
NDP - 15
GRN - 2
IND - 1

I’m curious to see actual vote share though over this geography.

About 1/3 of the way down this page you can see the vote percentage by province.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec.../2019/results/

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by you&me

That's your response to someone that takes the time to spoon-feed you an explanation of something you clearly have a poor understanding of?

I'd like to source it before substantively responding, if that's all right with you. I've seen all of those allegations before. I also like to see attribution for stuff that's obviously been cut and pasted.

But as I said previously, they are presented as if proven. To my understanding some are, some aren't, some are laid at the feet of Trudeau, some aren't.

My sense is that JWR is a bit of a grandstander as well, which colours things to me.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

So your viewpoint is wishful thinking.

Okay, what in your opinion was the reason she lost?

[PeteMoss]

Very hard to get a majority when the Bloc wins a bunch of seats.

Liberals only did it when Conservatives and Reform split the right vote.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by bob-loblaw

To minimize chances of political interference, why can't the Attorney General, Revenue, etc. be more independent like the Bank of Canada is? Politics shouldn't be involved in deciding who should or shouldn't be prosecuted, so why even give a ruling party the chance to appoint the minister?

Also, if you are a party that wants to send members to the House of Commons, the party should have to run candidates in 50% of the ridings in every province. The chance of being a national power broker with only a regional power base defeats the purpose of being equal in anything - power, money, etc.

Interesting but I don't know any country that has such an apparatus.

FWIW, JWR wasn't deciding on the prosecution or non-prosecution. She was declining to do so (in other words leaving the decision with the official who made it). So I suppose, at the end of the day the system worked despite best efforts to make it not work.

[Erick Estrada]

It just seems so unfair that a party that only serves the interest of one province has this many seats in parliament.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Okay, what in your opinion was the reason she lost?

I'd like to see the demographics breakdown for that one. Van Koeverden has name value and probably resonates as a fresh, youthful face for younger voters. Raitt was a good candidate, but this may have been about the actual riding competition more than the milk-drinking dud.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

So one of the CPC's more progressive candidates loses her seat and that should be seen as a wake-up call to the Conservatives?

Yeah, that was my point. One of the more progressive MPs in the party couldn't keep her seat because of the brand she's associated with. What's your opinion on it?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Very hard to get a majority when the Bloc wins a bunch of seats.

Liberals only did it when Conservatives and Reform split the right vote.

And Conservatives did it with an unholy alliance with a bunch of people who later became the Bloc (under Mulroney).

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yeah, that was my point. One of the more progressive MPs in the party couldn't keep her seat because of the brand she's associated with. What's your opinion on it?

Are the Conservatives somehow more regressive under Scheer versus Harper?