Milan Lucic has been just fine for the Flames so far this year. I think the Flames get 56 percent of the shots when he’s on the ice. That’s pretty great, and I think that him having at least a positive impact on possession was predictable based on his underlying numbers from past seasons. Quite a few ppl pointed that out.
But James Neal is having a heck of a season. He has 27 shots so far. He’s on pace for 276 shots (last year, he had 141). If he regresses to his career mean shooting percentage, he’d get 32 goals on the season.
I think Holland has hit this one out of the park. If Neal gets even 21-25 goals, that’s awesome. Even if he does decline in future years, there’s the buyout. Meanwhile, we have a guy that has a positive impact on possession and intimidates for 5.25 million dollars for the next four seasons who cannot be bought out (I’m not gonna mention the expansion draft b/c I’m assuming Treliving has that worked out based on an interview he gave after the trade). Sure, we’ll likely get a 3rd round pick as well, but to me the sum total of $500 K cap space, a 3rd round pick, and a helps-with-possession-and-intimidates player who likely cannot be moved isn't enough to justify trading a potential 30 goal scorer (at least for this year) to our division rival.
Last edited by Nelson; 10-19-2019 at 04:21 PM.
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Milan Lucic has been just fine for the Flames so far this year. I think the Flames get 56 percent of the shots when he’s on the ice. That’s pretty great, and I think that him having at least a positive impact on possession was predictable based on his underlying numbers from past seasons. Quite a few ppl pointed that out.
But James Neal is having a heck of a season. He has 27 shots so far. He’s on pace for 276 shots (last year, he had 141). If he regresses to his career mean shooting percentage, he’d get 32 goals on the season.
I think Holland has hit this one out of the park. If Neal gets even 21-25 goals, that’s awesome. Even if he does decline in future years, there’s the buyout. Meanwhile, we have a guy that has a positive impact on possession and intimidates for 5.25 million dollars for the next four seasons who cannot be bought out (I’m not gonna mention the expansion draft b/c I’m assuming Treliving has that worked out based on an interview he gave after the trade). Sure, we’ll likely get a 3rd round pick as well, but to me the sum total of $500 K cap space, a 3rd round pick, and a helps-with-possession-and-intimidates player who likely cannot be moved is enough to justify trading a potential 30 goal scorer (at least for this year) to our division rival.
It is interesting to think about how to best measure the production of Neal.
The McDavid impact is a very real thing. One almost needs to calculate expected production of a replacement player for the Oilers, such that you are measuring their expected production based on time with McDavid (including PP). Production above that represents the true value.
I’m not saying this tongue in cheek. We’ve seen real example (Chiasson) where McDavid can turn a replacement level player into a 20 goal man.
Neal’s even strength production, when not playing with McD, is a measure of his true effectiveness. And then anything on the PP above what a plug could do.
But there’s no question its been a good trade for them.
Doesn’t change my feelings much about it. I had my doubts that he would reach the requirements for the Flames to get the third, so the fact they didn’t get any additional benefit beyond the cap savings always bothered me. Now that a pick is looking quite certain, I actually feel better about it.
The organization needs to start getting more picks. I think teams that have sustained success are able to build their roster, while also having more than the minimum of picks. I’d like to see the club strive for 5 picks in the first 3 rounds every year.
I know the media loves to focus on this trade because it is a very easy story to tell and allows for clever nick names like “Real Steal”. But the considerations behind the deal are far more nuanced, and I do think that ultimately is will be considered a win-win by those that consider those nuances.
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It would be more appropriate to treat him with the same disinterest he showed while playing for us, but yeah, he's going to get booed.
As for the complainers in this thread: Nobody is forcing you to open it. Don't whine because other people want to discuss it, and don't beg the mods to lock the thread because you completely lack self-control.
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Nice to see he has turned things around. But....as suggested already what per cent of this is the McD factor? What if McD gets hurt and is off for considerable time. Does he then fall apart then the Oilers lose 2/3 of their major scoring. Just a thought is all.
The one thing positive to say about Neal, is that I do think he has a proven history of being able to play better with good players than the average bum.
He has a quick release and always been a great finisher. That’s about all he has, but that is a skill that can be leveraged with top players that create opportunities in close and can find him.
That is a skill that the Flames were unable to leverage and didn’t seem to have a viable plan in place to use it.
And that is why the trade works. It’s why Edmonton has to eat an additional $10m+ as well as a likely 3rd round pick.
Trades are supposed to benefit both teams. In this case it wasn’t about one player really being better than the other. It was about skill sets that could be better leveraged by one team more than another.
It’s completely fine Neal is producing. He is simply a better leach than other guys they used to have, like Chiasson - but let’s not oversell the effect Neal provides vs the alternative, as a lot of this is not his own doing and a function of opportunity with world class players.
I hate the argument that anyone can do it playing with Mcdavid. Because if that was true we’d just keep Lucic and he’s be fine. But he was useless on the power play. I get that Mcdavid makes others better. But you have to be good and have an idea of what to do to play with him as well. Lucic would park in front of the net on the PP and still couldn’t bang in goals. Chiasson did an ok job of that, and now it looks like Neal is an upgrade on that as well.
I was happy to see Lucic have a good game last one. Still one of my fav players even though he looks horrendous in those colours.
And that is why the trade works. It’s why Edmonton has to eat an additional $10m+ as well as a likely 3rd round pick.
Trades are supposed to benefit both teams. In this case it wasn’t about one player really being better than the other. It was about skill sets that could be better leveraged by one team more than another.
I still think the Flames would have been better off retaining around 2 million of Neal's salary and packaging him with a first rounder or something to that effect instead of taking back so much cap hit in return.
I think Flames fans will want the ~ 3million in cap space created by such a deal more than Lucic and his $5 mil at some point over the next 4 seasons.
Nothing wrong with admitting we lost that trade pretty badly in the short term. That draft pick could change all of this but Tre really messed up this whole situation, I hope he’s learned his lesson from this.
Nothing wrong with admitting we lost that trade pretty badly in the short term. That draft pick could change all of this but Tre really messed up this whole situation, I hope he’s learned his lesson from this.
Yeah if there's a bright side I think it's that he'll be cautious with these UFA signings now going forward
That draft pick could change all of this but Tre really messed up this whole situation, I hope he’s learned his lesson from this.
Not just the draft pick. Neal's hot start not making a difference for the Oilers in the end while Lucic's presence helping the Flames in the playoffs would atleast make it a wash. Lucic might not be recording points but he's helping create goals in other ways.
Burke had it right, whoever wins the trade in the end depends on the team's success.
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It's hard to blame Tre for this. Yes, the Neal signing was a disaster, but seeing his production in Edmonton, who could expect he would just coast for us? Anyone feeling regret about the trade, just rewatch the 2019 playoffs and his "performance". I am glad he is gone, I would be glad even if he walked out for nothing and I don't care about how he is doing these days. The only problem we have is Lucic getting paid too much for what he offers, but the case was the same with Neal last season. A goal scorer who can't score for 5 mil? Nope, thanks. I am fine with having enforcer who can't score for 5 mil. Atleast Lucic is showing some pride and adds something we miss, unlike Neal. I don't miss Neal at all.
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Nothing wrong with admitting we lost that trade pretty badly in the short term. That draft pick could change all of this but Tre really messed up this whole situation, I hope he’s learned his lesson from this.
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This is purely situational, and I'll admit, based on production, appears pretty lopsided.
In the event that Tre kept Neal this year, and his production (or lack of) were the same, Tre would still be recieving criticism for the initial signing. Treliving addressed a need in adding toughness. He shaved off salary, AND he looked after the team's future by getting a 3rd round draft pick in return. Based on early season returns, the trade has definitely worked in Edmonton's favour. That being said, I don't condemn Treliving for making the move at the time.