Predict the Pacific Standings

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Not only do the stats say you’re wrong, but Smith was the best Flame in the playoffs. So, no. Worse until Talbot proves otherwise this season hopefully.

What do playoffs have to do with it? We are talking about regular season standings. Smith was terrible in the regular season and cost the Flames multiple games.

Anyway, you tried to get a reaction and got one so good job. Neither SJ nor Calgary in the top 3 isn't gonna happen. Calgary is still by far the deepest team in the division...it's not like they are riding goal tending they just need average and they are probably top 2 let alone 3.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Knights
Sharks
Flames

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Vegas Golden Knights
San Jose Sharks
Calgary Flames

Originally Posted by jlh2640

Sharks
Calgary
Vegas

Originally Posted by pepper24

Golden Knights
Sharks
Flames

I am honestly a little surprised by the handful of posters picking SJ to finish ahead of the Flames this year. They lost their captain and top goal-scorer from last year, as well as a key player on their third line. They benefited from career-years for 34-year-old Brent Burns and 30-year-old Logan Couture, and Joe Thornton is 40 years old.

They don't look better to me. The Sharks finished six points back of the Flames even with some terrific individual performances, and they look worse today. Especially for a number of their older players coming off of a three-round playoff run it seems like they are primed to take a step back this year.

[Mr.Coffee]

Sorry, what do playoffs have to do with if teams are better or not? You think playoffs are irrelevant to informing us about how teams will do?

And then you said I was a troll?

No, my honest prediction is that Arizona will surprise and Calgary and San Jose will disappoint. You disagree, thats fine.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I suspect he will be better than last year for the reasons you mentioned. But he also trended downwards as the year went on and while there was some injury that may have accounted for that, that to me is also a risk factor...

Some time in the last two weeks Rittich's injury suffered in the NYE SJ game is something that Pat Steinburg and Ryan Pinder discussed on SN960. Pat said that Rittich talked about it at the end of the season, and he was obviously bothered by it. It affected his game prep, and it made certain movements in the crease difficult.

Among starting goalies in Oct–Dec Rittich ranked fourth in SP with a 0.924, and third in GAA with a 2.26. Prior to the NYE game in 13 of Rittich's 19 starts he posted a SP over 0.920. Following the injury, his numbers plummeted to a 0.902 SP, and a 2.83 GAA. He posted a +0.920 SP in only 8 of his remaining 22.

The injury was clearly an issue. Maybe that in itself is a risk moving forward, but given how well he played last year when healthy I think it is fair to assume that a good deal of that uncertainty is erased heading into this season.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Sorry, what do playoffs have to do with if teams are better or not? You think playoffs are irrelevant to informing us about how teams will do?...

How is a team's prior playoff performance relevant to the question of where they will finish in the REGULAR SEASON?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Sorry, what do playoffs have to do with if teams are better or not? You think playoffs are irrelevant to informing us about how teams will do?

And then you said I was a troll?

No, my honest prediction is that Arizona will surprise and Calgary and San Jose will disappoint. You disagree, thats fine.

You are saying the Flames goal tending is worse because Smith was good in the playoffs...Smith was terrible in the reg season yet the Flames had 107 points.

Anyway, we shall see....I get the feeling your predictions will age very badly. We can revisit in a few months.

It's the old if 95% of people disagree you just might be wrong

It's not even a homer thing

Edmonton above SJ....come on now, wanna bet?

[DeluxeMoustache]

To me, I am not concerned about Rittich.

I don’t see a ton of room for improvement over last year. But he has good fundamentals. I really like his game.

Yes he had an injury mid season after which his stats took a step down. But segmenting early and late year stats means you include the 6 goal TB drubbing and the Toronto 6 goal game shortly thereafter. Two of these in close proximity have a material impact on the stats across a much larger sample. Frankly, I can see a few games like that here and there this coming year, and will try not to get too hung up on the overall stats of the segment with a bad game in a statistical sense.

As for Talbot, sure, he has something to prove, but last year was an outlier for him, and a much smaller sample size. I have seen a lot of ‘this guy scored’ pictures in my day. I didn’t watch enough Talbot goals last year to segregate the majority of goals between team and goalie, but do know Smith let in a lot of stoppable shots the first half of the year. The Flames won a lot of games in spite of Smith who was tracking for a lot if the year as the worst starting goalie.

I’m happy to give Talbot the benefit of the doubt and am not concerned at this point

[1qqaaz]

I think the best case scenerio for Talbot and the Flames is that he ends up like Ryan Miller in Anaheim.

Puts up good stats, but doesn't force high value contracts, and doesn't steal the starting role.

[PlayfulGenius]

1. KNIGHTS
2. FLAMES
3. 'YOTES
4. SHARKS
(all 4 make the playoffs... Sharks beat out the Jets for the final Wildcard spot)
5. CANUCKS
6. OILERS
7. DUCKS
8. KINGS

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Is it fair to say that the Flames have upgraded at the position with a more seasoned, healthy, and more experienced David Rittich?

No?

Rittich is as healthy as when he started last year. He's also unlikely to have a much better record than 27-9-5, which he posted last year. I mean, that's a pretty awesome record already.

We replaced Smith with Talbot, who is nothing more than a questionmark at this point. It would surprise no one if he plays himself out of the league, but it would also not be a huge surprise if he's perfectly adequate or even good. This is clearly worse than our expectations for Smith last season. Let's say "same ceiling, lower floor".

If there's an upgrade in goal, it's unlikely to come from anywhere other than Rittich playing more. Which of course is not unreasonable.

But our goaltending is still mostly questionmarks.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Some time in the last two weeks Rittich's injury suffered in the NYE SJ game is something that Pat Steinburg and Ryan Pinder discussed on SN960. Pat said that Rittich talked about it at the end of the season, and he was obviously bothered by it. It affected his game prep, and it made certain movements in the crease difficult.

Among starting goalies in Oct–Dec Rittich ranked fourth in SP with a 0.924, and third in GAA with a 2.26. Prior to the NYE game in 13 of Rittich's 19 starts he posted a SP over 0.920. Following the injury, his numbers plummeted to a 0.902 SP, and a 2.83 GAA. He posted a +0.920 SP in only 8 of his remaining 22.

The injury was clearly an issue. Maybe that in itself is a risk moving forward, but given how well he played last year when healthy I think it is fair to assume that a good deal of that uncertainty is erased heading into this season.

Rittich doesn’t have enough of a track record to definitively attribute his performance to an injury of which we know zero details. It’s good to be optimistic and hopeful and I believe he can improve. I’m only stating what I see as a plausible risk.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Rittich doesn’t have enough of a track record to definitively attribute his performance to an injury of which we know zero details.

Rittich has said it affected him.
The coaches confirmed that it affected him.
Analysts who are closest to the team continue to say it affected him.

I don't know what more you want here beyond a notarised copy of his medical records.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How is a team's prior playoff performance relevant to the question of where they will finish in the REGULAR SEASON?

I think those playoff games are a really big deal when it comes to predicting the division. To ignore it means to disregard human nature, psychology and context of what happened. When you think about how badly they got outclassed, and hopefully you agree with me here but you’re so insanely biased I kinda doubt it- but outclassed is a generous term... when you consider that, it’s not hard to see that a) teams may realize how to beat Calgary b) confidence is fragile on the team and could be easily derailed after a bad stretch and c) they exited the year playing their absolute worst stretch all calendar year...

I’m kind of shocked people would pretend it’s not relevant here. It’s like saying St.Louis could exit December 31st in the NHL because that’s what happened last year. Now do you believe that to be likely to happen? Guess we’ll just ignore what happened in the playoffs for them?

This is a prediction thread. I made a prediction. Sorry you don’t like it, but it’s my prediction. At what point over the last decade have the teams always had the same ranking year over year? Almost never. Teams get worse and teams get better. Teams in Calgary’s division got better and I think via goaltending they got worse plus they showed a lot of weaknesses in the playoffs that could be exposed throughout this season (aka just play tough against them). Hope I’m wrong and again, they are still a good team, honestly.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Rittich has said it affected him.
The coaches confirmed that it affected him.
Analysts who are closest to the team continue to say it affected him.

I don't know what more you want here beyond a notarised copy of his medical records.

I don’t understand what you mean. I’m not questioning whether he was injured. I’m questioning any unequivocal declaration that his play in the first half of the season is what he will be going forward, and that any change can be attributed solely to his injury.

I guess it’s just not in my nature to see it in such absolute terms. He has a limited track record and you are using an even smaller slice of an already small sample to project his play.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Flames: 107 points-No reason to not consider them as a repeat division winner. They got rid of dead weight and replaced it with some solid contributors. Talbot looks like he's going to prove that he's still a legit goalie. Lots to prove for a team that exited the playoffs early. There's still a lot of hunger for this team.

Knights: 105 points-It's going to be a neck and neck battle all year, and the Knights are going to win a lot of games, but I think their depth at forward and defense keep them from winning the division. Still, their top 6 forward group is one of the best in the league.

Sharks: 97 points-Pavelski gone hurts them a little, but not enough to keep them from a playoff spot. Burns and Karlsson do a lot from the back end. Their top 6 is also very good, and their depth forwards are probably going to surprise some people with their contributions. However, their best players are aging, and I'm not sold on Couture as a #1 center.

Canucks: 92 points-they just miss out on a playoff spot, but they'll be in the fight until the last day of the year. They solidified some positions with veteran signings, but they won't be quite good enough to win consistently. Sophomore slump for Petterson to some degree, but otherwise an improvement over last year across the board. They will play hard and grind out a lot of wins. Green is probably the most underrated coach in the league right now, and he'll get a lot out of a roster like this.

Coyotes: 90 points-Again, a solid team on the bubble, but not quite there. They lack depth at center, and they will still have issues scoring goals even with Kessel, but they are going to be competitive for sure. They just lack high end talent at most positions, but otherwise a very solid roster.

Ducks: 82 points-Nobody beats father time. However, John Gibson is the best goalie in the NHL right now. He will steal a lot of wins and he'll have to because that defense after the top 3 is putrid: Holzer, Del Zotto, Guhle. Woof. Some good offensive players to give Gibson the run support he needs, but this is a team seriously on the decline overall.

Oilers: 81 points-I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they'll break the 80 point mark, but they are weak at all positions other than top line center and winger. Possibly the worst goaltending duo in the entire league, and really poor offensive depth. It's the Connor show again this year, so if he isn't 100% healthy after his knee injury, it could be a team ready to achieve record lows for an NHL season.

Kings: 65 points-Probably in the running for worst in the NHL again. Some decent top end fowards, but they're getting older quickly. Quick may bounce back, or not, hard to tell. But have you seen the defense after their top pair of Doughty and Martinez? Forbort, Hutton, Ladue, Ryan, Walker...holy hell that's weak.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I think those playoff games are a really big deal when it comes to predicting the division. To ignore it means to disregard human nature, psychology and context of what happened. When you think about how badly they got outclassed, and hopefully you agree with me here but you’re so insanely biased I kinda doubt it- but outclassed is a generous term... when you consider that, it’s not hard to see that a) teams may realize how to beat Calgary b) confidence is fragile on the team and could be easily derailed after a bad stretch and c) they exited the year playing their absolute worst stretch all calendar year...

I’m kind of shocked people would pretend it’s not relevant here. It’s like saying St.Louis could exit December 31st in the NHL because that’s what happened last year. Now do you believe that to be likely to happen? Guess we’ll just ignore what happened in the playoffs for them?

This is a prediction thread. I made a prediction. Sorry you don’t like it, but it’s my prediction. At what point over the last decade have the teams always had the same ranking year over year? Almost never. Teams get worse and teams get better. Teams in Calgary’s division got better and I think via goaltending they got worse plus they showed a lot of weaknesses in the playoffs that could be exposed throughout this season (aka just play tough against them). Hope I’m wrong and again, they are still a good team, honestly.

Let's hear you defend Edmonton above SJ lol

Hey if your right you will be the only one so I'll give you that

[You Need a Thneed]

Calgary
Arizona
Vancouver
——Playoffs——-
Vegas
San Jose
Anaheim
LA




Edmonton

[dskellam]

Sharks
Flames
Knights
---
Wildcard Ducks
---
Oilers
Canucks
Coyotes
Kings

[Britflamesfan]

Wow some people have short memories from last year. Once we got within shouting distance of the playoffs and teams started playing hard the flames really struggled. The playoffs were a disaster which other teams will have watched and will have a good idea from them how to deal with the flames. Mon will find it much tougher hanging around the front of the net, play him physically and he disappears. In fact play the whole team physically and they disappear. What has the team done to upgrade this, well a little bit in swapping a bad player for another tougher one. The Capt had an amazing year last year I will be amazed if he can get anywhere close to that again.

Love this team to death and hope I am wrong, make the playoffs for sure but first again I doubt it.

[Barnet Flame]

A lot rides on how Talbot performs. Equally, a lot rides on how teams approach us.

Colorado showed how to completely neutralise this team. I still can’t get over that.

That said, I doubt that until we get close to the playoffs that we will see teams approach us with that kind of intensity.

This means, I think we will make the playoffs with games to spare. But nothing has changed to make me believe the outcome of the playoffs will be materially different from last season.

Like I said, a lot rides on Talbot and goalies in general. However, there is no upgrade on Smith’s performance in that series. He was phenomenal. One of the best performances I have seen from a goalie.

Despite that, we were on the wrong end of one of the most humiliating playoff displays I’ve ever seen.

My prediction:

San Jose
Calgary
Vegas
Arizona
Vancouver
Edmonton
Anaheim
LA