2019 NFL Season Thread

[The Big Chill]

Aaaand the Browns still suck

[Senator Clay Davis]

Baker could have ran that thing up the middle, but only legends like Daniel Jones have the kind of awareness to do that.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Sure did. He looked like a league average backup the majority of the game and their ceiling is 5 wins with him. At least you get a top draft pic....derrrp.

we'll see how high the pick is going to be. Not going to throw Rudolph under the bus just yet, the game was on Conner and Barron. If it's a pick that would have given them Tua or Herbert, then yeah, that's bad. If it isn't, I'll just viee Minkah as the 2020 1st rounder and be extremely happy with that. 2 turnovers in his first game ... Steelers needed a playmaker like that badly.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Anyone care to explain why going for 2 to be down 9 points with 12 minutes left makes any sense?

Peter King breaks it down this way in his in his FMIA column

Game: Baltimore at Kansas City, Sunday.

Situation: Kansas City up 30-19, 12:27 left in the game. The Ravens have just scored to pull within 11 points, and Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has a decision to make on the conversion—though most coaches would just kick the PAT.

The decision: Harbaugh chooses to go for the two-point conversion to try to cut the lead to nine points, rather than kick the PAT to go down by 10 with likely two possessions left in the game. On TV, Ian Eagle thinks the way most people think: “The math just doesn’t work.”

The thought process: Harbaugh said after the game it was a “clear analytic decision to go for two. We had a mindset that we would come in and score as many points as we could … We are not going into it blind. We got the numbers.”

The analytics: According to Eric Eager of PFF: “Had the Ravens converted the two-point conversion, they know that scoring a field goal and a touchdown with a conventional PAT wins the game outright, instead of leaving similar decisions to the end of the game. Mathematically, if Baltimore missed the two-point conversion attempt, the Chiefs were 94.3 percent likely to win, Baltimore 5.7 percent. If Baltimore made the two-point conversion, Kansas City was 89.1 percent likely to win, Baltimore 10.9 percent. By kicking the PAT, Kansas City was 92.8 percent likely to win, and Baltimore 7.2 percent. The benefit of making the two-point conversion over kicking the PAT was 3.7 percent win-probability points, while the loss via missing the two-point conversion over kicking the PAT was just 1.5 percent. Assuming the Ravens are a modest 50% on two-point conversions, this is easily the preferable decision.”

The result: Lamar Jackson threw incomplete to Nick Boyle on the two-point try, and the Ravens lost the game 33-28. On the day, Baltimore was zero of three on two-point tries. “We are going to keep playing that way, for the record,” Harbaugh said. “When you write your articles … we will disagree with your criticism. This is the way we are going to play all year.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ng/?cid=fmiatw

[Sylvanfan]

I think Mayfield is far too quick to roll out to the right, and basically lose half the field when he does that. He's very predictable, and they showed a lot of situations where if he stays in the pocket he has a lot more options to move the ball down the field. He basically was making the Browns a lot easier to defend entirely on his own. So we will see if he can adjust and learn to stay in the pocket, or move around in the pocket a bit better.

The Buccaneers kicker situation is a unique one. 8 kickers in 8 years, and it's going to be 9 in 9. Ever since the Lawrence Tynes staff infection debaucle, it's been a cursed position.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think Mayfield is far too quick to roll out to the right, and basically lose half the field when he does that. He's very predictable, and they showed a lot of situations where if he stays in the pocket he has a lot more options to move the ball down the field. He basically was making the Browns a lot easier to defend entirely on his own. So we will see if he can adjust and learn to stay in the pocket, or move around in the pocket a bit better.

The Buccaneers kicker situation is a unique one. 8 kickers in 8 years, and it's going to be 9 in 9. Ever since the Lawrence Tynes staff infection debaucle, it's been a cursed position.

When you have an O line that can't protect you...

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

Bills are getting no love I see.

I think they grab a Wildcard spot.

People seem to not realise the Bills had the Number 2 ranked defence last year.

Now that Allen has some receivers to throw to I think their offence is going to show a big improvement.

Also the rookie RB Singletary is going to have a big year I think. It's one of the reasons they released Shady McCoy so he could get more touches.

Bringing back this post as I and others initially shot down their chances. According to ESPN;

Since 1990, 73.8% of teams that started the season 3-0 reached the playoffs.

Things are looking good for the Bills but then again they have beaten the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Their schedule actually looks pretty favorable today to finishing 8-8 or better as some of the teams on their schedule like the Steelers, Broncos, and Eagles look totally winnable now.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Weitz

When you have an O line that can't protect you...

Yeah, but last night, there were a lot of situations where the protection wasn't that bad, and Mayfield either didn't make a decision or decided to run himself into trouble. In a lot of cases he didn't exactly help them out. He's still a young QB and could very well learn that he's showing a tendency that defences will exploit unless he learns to adjust. I see guys like Wilson, Watson, Mahomes, Rivers, and Rogers able to move around better within the pocket to avoid pressure and still make plays largely because they keep more of the field in play. None of those teams have offensive lines that has people in envy.

[Deegee]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

Aaaand the Browns still suck

To be fair the Rams are decent.

[Erick Estrada]

Why did the NFL schedule the Redskins for a prime time game outside of Thursday night? They almost look Dolphins bad.

[The Big Chill]

What a catch! Fantastic to get both feet down

[KelVarnsen]

Jay Gruden should probably start looking at job wanted ads

[DropIt]

Script playing eerily similar to last year. Trubisky gets chastised early, finds his groove and coupled with the leagues best defense the Bears start ticking. Wasnt impossible to see coming as they played a much improved Packers defense and a tough Broncos team on the road against their former DC.

[dino7c]

If you have the stones to put HUGE money on heavy favorites to win out right they are basically giving away free money

Very few major upsets in the NFL this season

anyone actually follow through with the Pats/Cowboys parlay?

[DropIt]

Ha-Ha Clinton Dix with a big return to the captial

[Senator Clay Davis]

Not sure the NFL has ever had as many utterly #### teams as it currently does.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by DropIt

Ha-Ha Clinton Dix with a big return to the captial

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If you have the stones to put HUGE money on heavy favorites to win out right they are basically giving away free money

Very few major upsets in the NFL this season

anyone actually follow through with the Pats/Cowboys parlay?

I added them to a parlay I won but it added almost nothing. 1.04x each.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I added them to a parlay I won but it added almost nothing. 1.04x each.

Yeah a 2 way parlay of a $1000 moneyline bet was like $83 payout. I mean if you can afford to stake a million and find a house to take that bet it will win you a night out in Vegas.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why did the NFL schedule the Redskins for a prime time game outside of Thursday night? They almost look Dolphins bad.

Or the Jets last week. I noted before the Thursday night game that the MNF schedule is pretty weak save like a string of 4 games in November, a late season Vikings and Packers tilt.