The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I don't disagree with you per se, I just like what Tkachuk brings to the table more than Monny. With Monny older, comparing stats is harder.

Sean Monahan has the exact same number of points through five seasons as Jarome Iginla did (which includes Iggy's MVP year).

When Tkachuk does that, he can be one of the three best players on the team. Last year was his best ever, and he didn't even outscore Elias Lindholm.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by bax

Rantanen plays on a line with quite possibly the 2nd or 3rd best player in the game today.

No disrespect to Backlund, but he’s not exactly an offensive dynamo.

Let’s do this the other way.

Tkachuk piled up over 20 of his points on the PP, on an all star unit including the best D in the game, and that other guy who got 99 points

Rantanen had 87 points in 74 games. No disrespect to Tkachuk, who isn’t even a point per game player. Almost, but not quite.

Plus head to head in the playoffs, Rantanen put up 9 points in the last 4 games, while Tkachuk had 1 assist over that span and was -5

The Avs reportedly are valuing Rantanen at 8.4-8.75 over a 6-8 year term.

Believe me, if Tkachuk wants to compare himself to other RFAs, he is going to hear some things that don’t favour his negotiating position.

Rantanen wants Marner money. Sakic does not accept Dubas bad contracts as setting the market.

[goflamesgo18]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There is no chance Tkachuk signs a six year deal under $7.0 m AAV. That's not happening.

Maybe same average for 5 years then. He hasnt been more important to this team than those 2 guys at the time of their contracts, and the cap hasnt increased that much since they signed. The market is ridiculous because too many GMs are treating these RFAs like UFAs.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Sean Monahan has the exact same number of points through five seasons as Jarome Iginla did (which includes Iggy's MVP year).

When Tkachuk does that, he can be one of the three best players on the team. Last year was his best ever, and he didn't even outscore Elias Lindholm.

After his first three seasons, Monahan had 159 points in 237 games. Tkachuk has 174 points in 224 games. Tkachuk also outscored Monahan in their respective first and third seasons in the NHL.

Is there any reason to think that Tkachuk won't outscore Monahan's 4th through 6th seasons over his next 3 seasons? Monahan didn't exceed 64 points in any season before his 6th in the NHL. Not only did Tkachuk greatly exceed 64 points in his 3rd NHL season, he was only 5 points behind Monahan's 6th season.



Iginla, by the way, had 133 points in 234 games after three seasons in the NHL.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Sean Monahan has the exact same number of points through five seasons as Jarome Iginla did (which includes Iggy's MVP year).

When Tkachuk does that, he can be one of the three best players on the team. Last year was his best ever, and he didn't even outscore Elias Lindholm.

3 Season

Iginla: 133 pts
Tkachuk: 174 pts

[DeluxeMoustache]

Good lord. Let’s not do this without context.

Whatever Iggy did was in the young guns and dead puck eras.

[kukkudo]

So if Tkachuk misses sometime let's say till December and the Flames are hot garbage for the first half of the season do they keep him out?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by goflamesgo18

Maybe same average for 5 years then. He hasnt been more important to this team than those 2 guys at the time of their contracts, and the cap hasnt increased that much since they signed. The market is ridiculous because too many GMs are treating these RFAs like UFAs.

The cap has increased 16.5% since Gaudreau and Monahan signed their extensions, and 18% since Giordano signed his. If Tkachuk signed a six-year deal for the same cap-percentage that Gaudreau did that would carry a $7.9 m cap hit—bear in mind also that at the time, Gaudreau signed when he was ineligible for arbitration, and for RFA offersheets. I warrant that that number is pretty close to what the Flames are willing to pay.

[goflamesgo18]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

So if Tkachuk misses sometime let's say till December and the Flames are hot garbage for the first half of the season do they keep him out?

That wouldnt be a good position to be in for BT

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Let’s do this the other way.

Tkachuk piled up over 20 of his points on the PP, on an all star unit including the best D in the game, and that other guy who got 99 points

Rantanen had 87 points in 74 games. No disrespect to Tkachuk, who isn’t even a point per game player. Almost, but not quite.

Plus head to head in the playoffs, Rantanen put up 9 points in the last 4 games, while Tkachuk had 1 assist over that span and was -5...

I am unsure what any of this has to do with Rantanen's vision.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

So if Tkachuk misses sometime let's say till December and the Flames are hot garbage for the first half of the season do they keep him out?

It depends entirely upon whether or not they can afford to pay him what he wants. Moreover, by mid-December the Flames can likely only manage a cap-hit on Tkachuk's contract of around $4.5 m because of how they are pro-rated mid-season. I suspect that regardless of what happens, Tkachuk does not play until he agrees with terms the Flames are prepared to offer, and that they can afford.

[Aleks]

Originally Posted by getbak

After his first three seasons, Monahan had 159 points in 237 games. Tkachuk has 174 points in 224 games. Tkachuk also outscored Monahan in their respective first and third seasons in the NHL

Monahan vs Tkachuk in points only comparison is kind of a hard one. Wing is typically going to be a higher scoring position just due to less defensive responsibilities (granted, there are definite outliers in this field), Monahan had a harder position to adjust to in his early years, on top of playing a lower scoring position. Tkachuk in 16/17 also walked onto a team with a number of much more experienced and quality linemates than Monahan did in 13/14, the Flames overall were a much stronger team. Just my thought

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am unsure what any of this has to do with Rantanen's vision.

I assumed the train of thought / inference there was that they essentially had similar production (wrong) but that Tkachuk was doing it all by himself due to his great vision, whereas Rantanen was benefiting from playing with MacKinnon

Or something to that effect

[goflamesgo18]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The cap has increased 16.5% since Gaudreau and Monahan signed their extensions, and 18% since Giordano signed his. If Tkachuk signed a six-year deal for the same cap-percentage that Gaudreau did that would carry a $7.9 m cap hit—bear in mind also that at the time, Gaudreau signed when he was ineligible for arbitration, and for RFA offersheets. I warrant that that number is pretty close to what the Flames are willing to pay.

The cap has increased from 73M to 81.5M since start of gaudreaus contract. Thats 11.6%.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I assumed the train of thought / inference there was that they essentially had similar production (wrong) but that Tkachuk was doing it all by himself due to his great vision, whereas Rantanen was benefiting from playing with MacKinnon

Or something to that effect

No. I made the point that relative to how Rantanen boasts superior skating to Tkachuk, Tkachuk has better vision and anticipation than Rantanen. This was to counter the train of thought that Tkachuk is worth a good deal less than the RFA comparables because his skating is below average.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

So if Tkachuk misses sometime let's say till December and the Flames are hot garbage for the first half of the season do they keep him out?

Given the overall roster, number of great value contracts for veterans, plus those guys who are playing regular minutes under ELCs (guys like Andersson), plus having what appears to be a reasonably competent coach...

well, it would take the whole team working together to screw that up , and I doubt Tkachuk is the magic beans that reverses their fortune

I really don’t expect BT is worried about that as a high probability scenario

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No. I made the point that relative to how Rantanen boasts superior skating to Tkachuk, Tkachuk has better vision and anticipation than Rantanen. This was to counter the train of thought that Tkachuk is worth a good deal less than the RFA comparables because his skating is below average.

I’m willing to bet, if his skating was on par with Marners and Rantanen’s, he’d probably produce as much as they do.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No. I made the point that relative to how Rantanen boasts superior skating to Tkachuk, Tkachuk has better vision and anticipation than Rantanen. This was to counter the train of thought that Tkachuk is worth a good deal less than the RFA comparables because his skating is below average.

Sure, and other people responded afterwards, as well.

If this is what you want to talk about, though, I don’t see where you identified what gaps Rantanen has in his vision, where Tkachuk’s is better.

How do you determine that Tkachuk has better vision and anticipation?

Rantanen is a better skater, I am assuming is the consensus, and we know that the stats indicate he also is a much more productive player.

[DeluxeMoustache]

TC, I agree with you that Tkachuk has tools to make up for his skating not being the most beautiful to behold. He relies on other strengths to be elite, which he is.

My favourite Jagr quote about some players getting to the wrong place fast, whereas he just goes to the right place does sort of apply to a guy like Tkachuk.

I think it has to do a lot with willingness to go to the tough areas (front of the net, we have all seen him parked there), plus some really good hand eye (and we all know he works hard on his tips regularly in practice), and also a high level of compete.

I just don’t necessarily understand how you can look at him and Rantanen and make an assertion that Matty has better vision and anticipation. Rantanen probably outscores Tkachuk for a reason.

.. and, if Sakic is successful with his valuation of Rantanen at 8.4-8.75 over a 6-8 year term, that bodes well for BT.

No way BT bites on 8.5 for MT if Rantanen is unsigned

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I suspect that regardless of what happens, Tkachuk does not play until he agrees with terms the Flames are prepared to offer, and that they can afford.

That seems fairly simplistic. How can Tkachuk sign any contract unless the Flames offer him one? And I doubt the Flames make any offer they cannot afford.

But I expect that the Flames will need to adjust what “they are prepared to offer” to get Tkachuk signed.



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