The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

If Winter is representative, agents will concede there's a drop off in general for any lengthy holdout. That said, how does it play into a multi-year contract, since the drop-off would be supposedly for the first year only?

Maybe I wasn't clear. DeluxeMustache's suggestion was that a multi-year deal would be off the table once the season begins.

If the player's only option once the regular season starts is to sign a one-year deal, then the pressure is definitely on him to sign as soon as possible, for the fear of how a prolonged holdout would affect his performance. On a one year deal, the player NEEDS to perform; the more time he misses, the less likely it is that his performance will be a very good one.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Yes, that is what I suggested.

I think it’s logical. Maybe not bulletproof, but worth discussing.

If the team is struggling up to Dec 1, then there may be a bit more pressure.

But the player sitting out a whole year is such a lose-lose that it has to be worth it to both sides to get something done near term, if they can’t be satisfied long term.

[Corral]

This is a long thread for a subject matter that is decided by a very simple point. The gio cap is real in Calgary and MT won’t play until he agrees to AAV money that falls under it. Short term deal or otherwise. If it bothers him he should direct his scorn to JG and SM who signed in accordance with the cap.

You can talk about %cap and related stuff all you want but it seems apparent the line is in the sand and nobody budges until the leverage shifts. Ie Calgary starts soft and by December senses the playoffs are getting out of reach barring a st louis miracle or tkachuk realizes he is about to lose 6 million dollars of earnings by sitting out

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Corral

This is a long thread for a subject matter that is decided by a very simple point. The gio cap is real in Calgary and MT won’t play until he agrees to AAV money that falls under it. Short term deal or otherwise. If it bothers him he should direct his scorn to JG and SM who signed in accordance with the cap.

No. It's not.

Originally Posted by united

On the most recent episode of 31 Thoughts: The Pocast, Elliotte Friedman indicates that the Flames have already told Tkachuk they acknowledge he will become their highest-paid player, the question is how much higher than Gio/Gaudreau.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Corral

This is a long thread for a subject matter that is decided by a very simple point. The gio cap is real in Calgary and MT won’t play until he agrees to AAV money that falls under it. Short term deal or otherwise. If it bothers him he should direct his scorn to JG and SM who signed in accordance with the cap.

You can talk about %cap and related stuff all you want but it seems apparent the line is in the sand and nobody budges until the leverage shifts. Ie Calgary starts soft and by December senses the playoffs are getting out of reach barring a st louis miracle or tkachuk realizes he is about to lose 6 million dollars of earnings by sitting out

Well according to a previous report by Freidman (IIRC) that is not true as the Flames have acknowledged that MT would be paid more than Gio on this contract....and with the tidal shift league wide to who is getting the money moving forward, a no-brainer. If MT was told he would bnever see anything North of 6.75, he would have already requested a trade IMO.

The Matthews contract truly was a game changer. Now I suspect most RFA's coming of their ELC, see that path as the one to maximize their earnings while in the league. GM's are hesitant to give up years of control on the player as they figured they did just that in the least couple CBA's.

Its just a tug of war right now that hasnt truly seen any pressure points on either side that has forced deals to happen..in other words, players arent losing a dime yet and teams arent losing games yet.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Corral

This is a long thread for a subject matter that is decided by a very simple point. The gio cap is real in Calgary and MT won’t play until he agrees to AAV money that falls under it. Short term deal or otherwise. If it bothers him he should direct his scorn to JG and SM who signed in accordance with the cap.

You can talk about %cap and related stuff all you want but it seems apparent the line is in the sand and nobody budges until the leverage shifts. Ie Calgary starts soft and by December senses the playoffs are getting out of reach barring a st louis miracle or tkachuk realizes he is about to lose 6 million dollars of earnings by sitting out

Gaudreau and Monahan signed for fair market value at the time. No player or agent would ever accept a cap based on what one player signs for. Perhaps if it was within the same season I could see it, but not when markets fluctuate year to year.

[DeluxeMoustache]

When is the US TV deal supposed to be done? Is it after this season?

Right now, especially the last 2 years, top salaries are far outpacing revenue growth, and the players have in some years used the 5 % escalator in an arguably foolhardy way, as it increases the impact of escrow and now they are sad. (Boo hoo)

The way in my mind to justify a step change in top contracts is not merely what Dubas has done, it has to be visibility in to a step change coming in revenue and cap.

(Also, is there supposed to be increased revenue from gambling?)

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

When is the US TV deal supposed to be done? Is it after this season?

Right now, especially the last 2 years, top salaries are far outpacing revenue growth, and the players have in some years used the 5 % escalator in an arguably foolhardy way, as it increases the impact of escrow and now they are sad. (Boo hoo)

The way in my mind to justify a step change in top contracts is not merely what Dubas has done, it has to be visibility in to a step change coming in revenue and cap.

(Also, is there supposed to be increased revenue from gambling?)

Not until after the 2012-22 season but apparently the current agreement allows for negotiation to begin this year.

Although I skeptical they had a guy on the Fan (Mike Johnston, is that right?) who claims to have heard the rights could go for 5 to 8x as much as previous deal, which could have a $20 million one time impact on the salary cap.

[ricardodw]

don't know if I have my facts right but in Oct 1994 Matt's dad missed some NHL Games...

He was 22 starting his 4th NHL season withe the Jets and as a 21 year old he had 41 goals and 81 pts leading the Jets in scoring. He made $196,625 as 21 year old and had huge raise to somewhere around 1.5M (prorated to the 48 game season: 836,571) #56 in the league

The teams all showed up to camp and played the exhibition games. The Jets played their last exhibition game on the coast (Vancouver or LA) and the owners called a lockout. Find your own way home.

The Jets team decided to stop in Vegas on the way home for some off ice training

When Kieth's mom heard this she flew off to Vegas to drag Keith out of the Casino's and back to Boston to actually do some real training and stay out of trouble.

Maybe the Flames should contact Matt's Grandma and get her to get him back on the ice with the Flames.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

When is the US TV deal supposed to be done? Is it after this season?

the NBC is excited about the NHL based on 2 large TV market teams playing in the Stanley Cup Finals.

They are liable to want money back if a Canadian team makes it back to the finals.

Look for Canadian teams having a shorter expansion protection list and left out of the Draft lottery.

For the good of the league and the players.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not until after the 2012-22 season but apparently the current agreement allows for negotiation to begin this year.

Although I skeptical they had a guy on the Fan (Mike Johnston, is that right?) who claims to have heard the rights could go for 5 to 8x as much as previous deal, which could have a $20 million one time impact on the salary cap.

The current deal expires in 2021, so the next deal will start in 2021-22.

The current deal is pretty undervalued, especially compared to what the other major leagues are getting. The NBA currently gets more for their tv rights in one season ($2.7 billion) than the NHL will get over the full 10 years of their current contract with NBC ($2 billion).

I'd be surprised if they can actually increase the value by 8 times ($1.6 billion per year), but 5 times ($1 billion per year) is probably within reach.


Hopefully the league and players are smart enough to use that significant bump in revenue as an opportunity to adjust the math on calculating the cap, to help bring escrow down rather than just pumping up the cap by $10 million a year.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ Thanks. I think there is a good argument that Tkachuk should do a 2 year bridge deal.

2 yrs at 6.3 puts Calgary right at the cap and puts him on skates today.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Yeah, Marner reset the market a few weeks ago. But then Boeser re-reset it last week, and so now RFAs are reasonable again.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Yeah, Marner reset the market a few weeks ago. But then Boeser re-reset it last week, and so now RFAs are reasonable again.

I don't know...Boeser was not a top 5 RFA, Marner is the only one of them signed

56 point career high and injured every season is over 5M. The other contracts will fall somewhere in between.

[The Cobra]

The Gio cap is not in existence, to the extent it ever was.

if Calgary actually insisted it is, they may as well close up shop.

On any long term deal, there is zero chance Tre is actually trying to convince Tkachuk to sign for less than the Gio cap.

[Monahammer]

I've reached the point where I firmly believe sitting out does more harm to Tkachuk and his career/earnings potential than it does to the flames chances this season. He's a great player but we can survive his hold out.

We already know he'll light up a swiss league if he goes there. He's definitely not even making close to as much money if he does. Then he can come back with hat in hand next season when he gets the same offer from Treliving (or maybe a worse offer) because he hasn't played with real nhlers in a full year.

[dino7c]

Sure the Flames can survive but its basically wasting a year of all our good contracts...Flames are already thin in the top six for a contender.

Just get it done

[Toonage]

My birthday is Friday

(holds for applause, compliments, gift cards)

I think a great gift would be Tkachuk signed on Friday. Why I want some guy I don't know to become a multi-millionaire on my birthday? No idea. But the heart wants what the heart wants.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Sure the Flames can survive but its basically wasting a year of all our good contracts...Flames are already thin in the top six for a contender.

Just get it done

Meh, I disagree. I think that someone like Bennett (or even Mangiapane) can be serviceable in that spot. In the playoffs Bennett performs even better so it may work out nice in balance.

Losing Tkachuk is a blow but I would hardly call it a death knell to playoff success. Let that boy think about his greed over in europe for a year if he's really being stubborn. The success of the overall team is vital, and we can't afford to cripple ourselves by being as stupid as Dubas

[Corral]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The Gio cap is not in existence, to the extent it ever was.

if Calgary actually insisted it is, they may as well close up shop.

On any long term deal, there is zero chance Tre is actually trying to convince Tkachuk to sign for less than the Gio cap.

Personally I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say our captain who is the league best player in his position should be the highest paid guy on the roster.

It’s not like the flames are going to explicitly tell the world what their true constraints are in player negotiations. Friedman et al like to think they get the facts but as I have said before they are merely the distribution side of the NHL entertainment machine. They get paid to keep fans interested. That is all

I think Gaudreau signed for less than he wanted because he eventually caved and agreed to less than gio. He no doubt regrets the length of his contract. Tkachuk will likewise cave but will respond by only agreeing to a shorter deal. That’s my bet anyway