Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Boreal]

Neal was drafted in 2005 so the FACTS are misleading.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by nobles_point

Neal was drafted in 2005 so the FACTS are misleading.

It's a joke man....

[Pellanor]

Originally Posted by nobles_point

Neal was drafted in 2005 so the FACTS are misleading.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The funniest exercise yet for me is comparing "opportunity" or "role" for each player.

For Neal it's pretty easy.

You add up the time he played with any of the clear cut top six forwards; in this case five skaters (Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Backlund) though cases could be made for Frolik and maybe even Derek Ryan.

Those five forwards are 1-5 in terms of total ice time but also average ice time per game; not much argument against using them as "opportunity" measures.

Then you go to the Oiler side.

They don't have five guys that represent opportunity. They have three. Lucic's time with McDavid, Draisaitl and NH is obvious but if you extend the analysis you have to include that huge opportunity to play with Alex Chiasson and Zack Kassian too.

Too funny.

To add to this, it's also a myth that playing with a player like McDavid will automatically boost your numbers by astronomical amounts. You still have to have chemistry with these high end players. Often, the high end players struggle to find wingers that jive with their style of play. They also expect their linemates to conform to what they're doing.

This is the same reason that Pittsburgh always struggled to find players to play with Crosby/Malkin. Strangely enough, it was often plugs, capable of doing one or two things well, that performed the best with them...cough cough Neal.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by nobles_point

Neal was drafted in 2005 so the FACTS are misleading.

But he is still like Wayne Gretzky right?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by agulati

But he is still like Wayne Gretzky right?

No, no. That's Lucic. Get your FACTS straight!

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by browna

Comments from Ference a year or two after he left pretty much confirm that the Oilers expect vets to do a huge amount of baby sitting because the young guys have zero confidence and have a meddling executive in their ear regularly, or, doing zany things like undermining the coaches or using tactics Sather did int he 80s to motivate.

Lowe did a sales job that things are ok, and that vets are going to go in and be stars, pumped up like they will be able to do it all... And vet players go there with a big raise and the notion that the organizational problems they have heard about are overblown.

Until they get there and realize it's much worse then they heard about.

I have heard from a good source back when that even McLellan couldn't believe how dysfunctional the organization was and how much energy that zapped from players day to day and year to year. Talent is going to waste, and then with cap problems due to overpaying guys to go there, there is no easy fix, and, players aren't waiving to go to Edmonton either.

Last year, Lowe got to back into the good books and was able to once again dictate to Katz that the coach and GM should go, and again mobilized the media, all at the expense of players trying to play through a season for a lame duck coach (or coaches) and a GM who wasn't making decisions. And the vets have to try and keep it together for all the young guys and are scolded also for not scoring more and helping the young guys out.

This isn't just Lucic. Pronger, Erik Cole, Souray, Ference, even guys likely like Maroon would have had that pressure. Lowe figures that a vet or two is going to be the cure all for the young guys, and each vet that comes going to be some guy like an 80s Messier to singlehadled keep young guys in line, and score and do it all.

All true. But it was Sather (who is a knob) that was the one who kept the 80’s Oilers in line by instilling an identity and reciprocating respect and accountability between himself & the core players.

Lowe is a toxic joke in all aspects of relationships with players & personnel and has been since the Comrie debacle. He has a good story in the crony hockey world as he uses his 6 Cup charisma to pick pocket your reputation within the franchise when things go south. You leave & he stays.

Plus he’s not that bright. He told Dustin Penner they saw him as a young Bob Probert... huh?

Nicholson speaks glowingly of him, so thankfully he isn’t going anywhere. He might not have a “role” in hockey ops, but he still has an opinion and even Brian Burke said he would use him as a resource... but maybe that was a subtle troll.

Holland will also slowly be infected.

Sure he purged Lucic’s buyout proof contract, as Edmonton media celebrates until they see Neal’s pace of play.

But they have their own baggage? 4 years of Neal @ at $6.5 mill cap hit or 7 years with at least a ~ $2 million cap hit. Best case scenario they save a few million to overpay someone else, which Holland has proven to be savy at.

The only redeeming part of Lucic’s deal is that buyout or not, it’s done in 4 years except for ~$500,000, and they save that now, by punting Neal.

[DeluxeMoustache]

I get a kick out of the Oilers fans celebrating the ability to buy out Neal as a victory, if he stinks. Even if they do buy out Neal instead of Lucic, how great is that?

Say they both get bought out after a year -
Years up until contract expiry:
1.92 per year cap hit + 750 K spend and cap hit to Lucic = 2.67 million per year for Neal
Buyout for years after contract expiration date = 1.92 million per

Buying out Lucic:
3.6 (except 3.1 in 21-22)
625 K per year for the years after the contract expires

So they basically could save almost 1 million per year until contract expiration date (just 500 K in 21-22). Then they have a cap hit that is greater by 1.3 million per year for the following years.

That was the big win. Mild cap savings now in each age for a worse cap hit later. Way to go, losers

You have to laugh at such silliness.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I get a kick out of the Oilers fans celebrating the ability to buy out Neal as a victory, if he stinks. Even if they do buy out Neal instead of Lucic, how great is that?

Say they both get bought out after a year -
Years up until contract expiry:
1.92 per year cap hit + 750 K spend and cap hit to Lucic = 2.67 million per year for Neal
Buyout for years after contract expiration date = 1.92 million per

Buying out Lucic:
3.6 (except 3.1 in 21-22)
625 K per year for the years after the contract expires

So they basically could save almost 1 million per year until contract expiration date (just 500 K in 21-22). Then they have a cap hit that is greater by 1.3 million per year for the following years.

That was the big win. Mild cap savings now in each age for a worse cap hit later. Way to go, losers

You have to laugh at such silliness.

Oilers buying out Neal next season would save them about $3.8 million per season over the first three years of the buy out.

Flames buying out Lucic after one year, would give cap hits of $4.8, 3.6, $4.8, and then it drops to almost nothing.

Suppose both of these guys have dead cat bounces next year, but then degrade into non-NHL calibre over the next couple seasons after that?

If the Oilers wait until Neal has 1 year left, they pay two years at 1.9.

If you want to buy out Lucic with 1 year left you pay a cap penalty of $4.6 million and then 300k.

So while a Neal buyout isn't painless it gives the team some relief short term. The Lucic contract makes a buyout pointless.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ I see - I was looking at the wrong column.

Even still, the total cap hits due to buyout are equal on both sides, but more front loaded for Lucic. If the end ‘win’ is a buyout, it’s just short term gain, longer term pain for the Oil. Tough to throw away 2 more million a year when so many other guys are already overpaid.

Total buyout cost is 18.8 vs 18.2 now, and the delta gets worse for the Oil as each year passes.

Let’s just say that the Lucic contract is not what was standing between the Oilers and being a contender.

Mind you, without that scourge Tobias Rieder, the possibilities are endless

[monkeyman]

Edmonton already has ~4.5 million in dead cap space for next year with current buyouts and retained salary. If they buy out Neal, that jumps to ~6.5, not to mention the inevitable Koskinen buyout once Edmonton does what Edmonton does to goalies.
Having said that, Edmonton had no choice to trade him, for the reasons stated above, they just couldn't afford to buy him out, they couldn't afford to keep him, and he just wasn't a good fit.
While it wouldn't be ideal, Calgary even with a Lucic buyout, is at ~7.5 in dead cap space, but that's not going to happen, Lucic is exactly what this Calgary team needs and he's going to be an important part of its success. Calgary is just a much better fit for him.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Oilers buying out Neal next season would save them about $3.8 million per season over the first three years of the buy out.

Flames buying out Lucic after one year, would give cap hits of $4.8, 3.6, $4.8, and then it drops to almost nothing.

Suppose both of these guys have dead cat bounces next year, but then degrade into non-NHL calibre over the next couple seasons after that?

If the Oilers wait until Neal has 1 year left, they pay two years at 1.9.

If you want to buy out Lucic with 1 year left you pay a cap penalty of $4.6 million and then 300k.

So while a Neal buyout isn't painless it gives the team some relief short term. The Lucic contract makes a buyout pointless.

No it isn’t pointless. You can look at the buyout as consolidated if Lucic can’t play or you have better options for replacement level talent. It’s essentially done when it’s done.

[Bingo]

It's only pointless if you look at it as savings.

Lucic's contract has the savings built in as the bonuses have been paid.

If you're managing a hockey team and you are worried about cap space impacts of just getting the player off your roster it's much closer.

If both teams bought out their players after one more failed season the Oilers would have a cap hit of $1.9M for six years, but also take on the Lucic buy out from Calgary for their percentage of $2M total over six years. Results in a total cap hit of $13.6M over six years or $2.3 per season.

In Calgary it's up and down, but the total cap hit to buy out Neal after one year comes in at $14.4M three rough years, and then three almost irrelevant years. The average cap hit for Calgary is $2.4M per year, just over 100k more for year than the Neal buy out.

I agree you don't do it for savings, but if you want to get rid of the player (which clearly both teams have already wanted to do once) the overall impact between both buyouts is negligible.

[Boreal]

Exactly. It’s cutting the losses for both sides.

Lucic’s contract is what it is, and trading him to the Flames probably wouldn’t be palatable to the Oilers if the contract wasn’t structured the way it is.

It’s still funny that the Oilers are paying for someone to play for the Flames.

[sureLoss]

Lucic has hired Adam Oates as a 1 on 1 coach. Article also goes into Oates' philosophy when it comes to training and what he focuses on so it is a good read.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/b...UPP/story.html

Just days ago, Oates took on what may be the greatest challenge of his four years in the skills biz, adding former Bruin Milan Lucic to his client list.

The 31-year-old “Looch”, who was recently flipped from Edmonton to Calgary, is in dire need of offensive help and overall career recovery.

Once a 30-goal scorer with the Bruins, he potted only 16 goals in his 161 games with the Oilers the past two seasons.

Prior to getting dished to the Flames for an underperforming James Neal, rumors were rampant that he could be bought out (four years remaining with a $6 million cap hit).

Oates would not go into detail regarding what prescriptive fix he had for Lucic, but sounded assured he can help a guy he sees as motivated to reclaim his stature as a player with brute force who can add some offensive pop. He’ll have to help Lucic get off the mark faster, and enhance his puckhandling, which is Page 1 on the Oates primer.

[Heavy Jack]

Oates has an amazing track record as a one on one skills coach so this is exciting to say the least! Hopefully Looch is able to find his game again and be impactful again.

[topfiverecords]

Can he get a 5 on 5 coach too?

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Lucic has hired Adam Oates as a 1 on 1 coach. Article also goes into Oates' philosophy when it comes to training and what he focuses on so it is a good read.

This is pretty exciting, and I think shows just how enthusiastic Lucic is heading into the season. I really think a change in scenery and a few corrections to bad habits picked up in Edmonton is exactly what he needs. I'm really excited and optimistic to see how he performs this season.

[Locke]

I think it speaks well of Lucic's mindset.

On the Oilers there was no pressure, they werent going to make the playoffs and everyone without Pom-Poms knew it.

The Flames expect to and the goal is to go deeper.

[ShotDownInFlames12]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Oates has an amazing track record as a one on one skills coach .

*citation needed