Simplified Neal/Lucic trade Poll

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I'd say that Lucic had one-and-a-half poor seasons... three is really stretching it.

2016-17: 23 goals, 50 points
First half of 2017-18 (Pre-All Star): (49 GP) 9 goals, 30 points
Second half of 2017-18 (Post-All Star): (33 GP) 1 goal, 4 points
2018-19: 6 goals, 20 points

I honestly wonder if Lucic was demoralized halfway through 2017-18 because his team was underperforming compared to the previous season, and he never got that mojo back.

Funny enough, the splits for Neal are kinda similar, with a lower peak...

2016-17: 23 goals, 41 points
First half of 2017-18 (Pre-All Star): (48 GP) 22 goals, 34 points
Second half of 2017-18 (Post-All Star): (23 GP) 3 goals, 10 points
2018-19: 7 goals, 19 points

I made the same case in essence, but looked at season by quarter. You should check this out, if you haven’t seen it

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/milan-lucic

This site gives you production as well as most frequent line mates by quarter.

Lucic can do do deferent things with different line mates, so it will be interesting to see what he does here

[Jacks]

Some of the oiler homers crack me up, Neal isn't going to make a difference to that team.

If Neal is on the top line:
Neal 20 goals
Chaisson 5-10 goals

If Chaisson is on the top line:
Chaisson 20 goals
Neal 5-10 goals

It's not like they are adding 20 goals here, they are adding 5-10 but then you minus off the 5-10 that Lucic would have provided and it's basically a wash. Except of course that they have additional cap and Neal is more useless than Lucic in the bottom 6 if they have to play him there. The only real win they have is the ability to buy him out easier which will bring their dead cap space up to about 6.5M. I still don't like the trade because I don't like the Lucic contract but this is hardly a home run for them either. Enjoy that $27.5M top line with McLotto dragging an anchor boys.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Some of the oiler homers crack me up, Neal isn't going to make a difference to that team.

If Neal is on the top line:
Neal 20 goals
Chaisson 5-10 goals

If Chaisson is on the top line:
Chaisson 20 goals
Neal 5-10 goals

It's not like they are adding 20 goals here, they are adding 5-10 but then you minus off the 5-10 that Lucic would have provided and it's basically a wash. Except of course that they have additional cap and Neal is more useless than Lucic in the bottom 6 if they have to play him there. The only real win they have is the ability to buy him out easier which will bring their dead cap space up to about 6.5M. I still don't like the trade because I don't like the Lucic contract but this is hardly a home run for them either. Enjoy that $27.5M top line with McLotto dragging an anchor boys.

You're absolutely right.

I mentioned in a previous post that if Neal scores 20+ goals next year, the real benefit might be increasing the liquidity of Neal's contract. Perhaps, after scoring 20+ goals, a team would be more willing to make a trade for Neal (with money retained). This didn't work with Chiasson not getting much interest, but Neal has a bit more pedigree (in my opinion)

If Holland can get Neal to produce 20+ goals with top 6 minutes and PP1 time, and then ship that contract out (all or part) the following off season, then he's done really well.

[Bingo]

Interesting comparable ...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1155929917206306816

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

You're absolutely right.

I mentioned in a previous post that if Neal scores 20+ goals next year, the real benefit might be increasing the liquidity of Neal's contract. Perhaps, after scoring 20+ goals, a team would be more willing to make a trade for Neal (with money retained). This didn't work with Chiasson not getting much interest, but Neal has a bit more pedigree (in my opinion)

If Holland can get Neal to produce 20+ goals with top 6 minutes and PP1 time, and then ship that contract out (all or part) the following off season, then he's done really well.

True enough.

But the sobering reality even after this best-case scenario is that the Oilers will have frittered away six years of Connor McDavid's hockey career with no tangible improvement or benefit, a lot of cap space, few burgeoning prospects, and only three top-six forwards on the roster. For a desperate team located in the NHL hinterlands this is déjà-vu, and a recipe for impending disaster: it would be completely unsurprising to see them replay the entire Lucic contract debacle in 2020 Free Agency, and with the catastrophic result of a McDavid trade-demand the following year on the heels of four straight seasons out of the playoffs.

Edmonton is no good.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting comparable ...

While I agree it's interesting, it should be noted Heatley had major shoulder issues around the time of his decline. Apparently he could barely shoot the puck. Coupled with his poor foot speed to begin with and it was game over.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by sketchyt

While I agree it's interesting, it should be noted Heatley had major shoulder issues around the time of his decline. Apparently he could barely shoot the puck. Coupled with his poor foot speed to begin with and it was game over.

Plus, he went 50-40-25-10 in 2 year chunks. It was a steady decline from elite scorer to very good scorer to OK scorer to bottom line scoring, not "falling off a cliff" from a steady diet of 20 goals.

[ComixZone]

Still went with Love It. On top of what others have said, I don’t think the fact he’s won a Stanley Cup should be undervalued.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Still went with Love It. On top of what others have said, I don’t think the fact he’s won a Stanley Cup should be undervalued.

Nor should it be overvalued.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

True enough.

But the sobering reality even after this best-case scenario is that the Oilers will have frittered away six years of Connor McDavid's hockey career with no tangible improvement or benefit, a lot of cap space, few burgeoning prospects, and only three top-six forwards on the roster. For a desperate team located in the NHL hinterlands this is déjà-vu, and a recipe for impending disaster: it would be completely unsurprising to see them replay the entire Lucic contract debacle in 2020 Free Agency, and with the catastrophic result of a McDavid trade-demand the following year on the heels of four straight seasons out of the playoffs.

Edmonton is no good.

That entire organization is a hot mess. I feel for McDavid. I do think he’s the biggest casualty of the situation up there. I genuinely feel sorry for the bloke.

[zamler]

There's a poll on HF where 95% of Oilers fans like this trade makes me feel better about it.

[Major Major]

Ya, that's one of the sweetest parts about this deal. Their fans and media fans are hyping this up something special, and we all know how that goes.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Plus, he went 50-40-25-10 in 2 year chunks. It was a steady decline from elite scorer to very good scorer to OK scorer to bottom line scoring, not "falling off a cliff" from a steady diet of 20 goals.

I was going to say the same thing.

Heatley had well documented injury problems and then a steady downward trajectory that lasted a few seasons. He faded out pretty fast I supposed, but he didn't fall off like Neal did.

Very few players just hit a wall like Neal did at age 30, unless there are injury problems. It's so anomalous that I can't help but think he will bounce back.

[Oil Stain]

The Oilers win this just because Neal's contract is easier to deal with.

Both players are probably done at this point.

With Neal he could be bought out, or traded with salary retention and a sweetener to a rebuilding club.

Lucic can't be bought out, and I doubt he waives his NMC to go to a place like Ottawa to finish out his career on a cellar dweller.

Calgary will be sitting in a sweet spot if the new CBA negotiations include compliance buy-outs though. Wonder if the Flames would take advantage of that?

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The Oilers win this just because Neal's contract is easier to deal with.

Both players are probably done at this point.

With Neal he could be bought out, or traded with salary retention and a sweetener to a rebuilding club.

Lucic can't be bought out, and I doubt he waives his NMC to go to a place like Ottawa to finish out his career on a cellar dweller.

Calgary will be sitting in a sweet spot if the new CBA negotiations include compliance buy-outs though. Wonder if the Flames would take advantage of that?

If Neal puts up 20+, then the Oilers wont trade him. If he puts up less than 20...no one will take him...even with a sweetener and salary retention...this is a myth that Oilers fans tell themselves to feel better about the trade.

The buyout is also a myth...between Sekera, Lucic (for 4 years), Neal for 6 years...the Oilers have basically $5+M in buyout money. They can do it...but are they better off...or do they just get a new overpaid toy they can hype next summer??

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Nor should it be overvalued.

Particularly considering the guy he was traded for had just been to back to back finals...

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by tkflames

The buyout is also a myth...between Sekera, Lucic (for 4 years), Neal for 6 years...the Oilers have basically $5+M in buyout money. They can do it...but are they better off...or do they just get a new overpaid toy they can hype next summer??

It's worse than that.

If they buy out Neal next off season they'll have:
Lucic $750K
Pouliot $1.333M
Sekera $2.5M
Neal $1.917M

Total 6.5M in dead space next year.
Top line with Chaisson $23.15M
Kostinem in net $4.5M
Klefbom and Larsson as one of the weakest top pairings $8.334M
That's half their cap on one average starting lineup (garbage lineup without McNugget)


And that's next year, this year is just as bad. No good.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The Oilers win this just because Neal's contract is easier to deal with...

No. The Oilers lose this trade because they are a crap team that will finish yet another season well out of the playoff picture, while the Flames will once again challenge for the Division. Maybe they acquired the more productive player; maybe his contract is more manageable, but at the end of the day this trade does nothing to address their issues of depth and deplorable shortage of skill.

It must suck hard to be an Oilers fan.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by tkflames

If Neal puts up 20+, then the Oilers wont trade him. If he puts up less than 20...no one will take him...even with a sweetener and salary retention...this is a myth that Oilers fans tell themselves to feel better about the trade.

The buyout is also a myth...between Sekera, Lucic (for 4 years), Neal for 6 years...the Oilers have basically $5+M in buyout money. They can do it...but are they better off...or do they just get a new overpaid toy they can hype next summer??

I don’t see the Oilers ever buying out Neal. Even if they get 2018-2019 Neal he’ll still be better than half their regular top 12 so why not just keep him.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Lucic can't be bought out, and I doubt he waives his NMC to go to a place like Ottawa to finish out his career on a cellar dweller.

Lucic can be bought out his salary is structured in a way that unless you're desperate to remove him from the roster it doesn't save anything.

Buy-outs kind of suck anyway, they compound an already terrible situation. Unless it's the final season I don't know why teams do it. I'd much rather we were going in Brouwer's final year with the Flames than have him on the books at 1.5 for three more years.