You will care come the season, because you're going to hear about it. From Oiler fans, the Edmonton media, the Edmonton fan bloggers, John Shannon, Ron MacLean, etc ...
And we will laugh because moral victories are worth no points. With their defence and goal tending its almost guaranteed that our new third round pick is basically a 2nd.
We'll see what happens. If only every other game,someone thinks twice about slashing Johnny or pushing around one of our top guys because they may have to face Lucic on the next line change, it all may be worth it. Neal may have had some grit at one point and could put a puck or two in the net, but nobody slashing away at Gaudreau over the past few seasons would worry one bit about facing Neal over it. Yeah, I get it, the good old days of the enforcer are gone, but every sucessful team still needs that guy that makes the other team think there are real consequences if they choose to take certain liberties with their star players.
Careful about taking certain liberties against our players or big bad Lucic is gonna come after you.
This is already a loss because Lucic will never be a player worth a 5.25 million dollar contract.
Neal won't be either, but at least there's a chance he could be traded away at some point without taking 5.25x4 locked back.
I think the fact that they were traded for each other pretty much shows you that neither were easy to move for either side. I doubt that changes.
Another iffy Neal season will write him off (when Edmonton would want to trade him).
At least Lucic holds out hope that with way less money actually owed by next summer. A year from now Calgary will have paid is annual summer bonus and he will only be owed $10M total for the final three years of his contract.
If anyone has The Athletic and wants to feel encouraged about this deal, read Kent Wilson's article "A deep dive behind the numbers to gauge expectations for Milan Lucic and James Neal."
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I'm not professing to predict anything, but you can't assign equal chance to improve, stay the same or get worse to a 32 year old. Hockey players peak at 29 and then get worse as an average every year.
So they aren't equal chance out comes, they are heavily skewed to a decline by a huge data base of hockey players.
Neal was so bad last year he should bounce back a bit, but then I guess you could say the same about Lucic. As a curve though, they're both rolling off a hill and downhill for these contracts.
But Neal had just one sharp down year. Just getting back to the mean would be a better year.
In your theory, you could assign more to "equal" and "better", with less going to worse because last year was such a sharp heavily skewed decline. But again. There's no success of accurately assigning chances to a prediction here so 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 is just fine. For simplicity, not for professing.
But Neal had just one sharp down year. Just getting back to the mean would be a better year.
In your theory, you could assign more to "equal" and "better", with less going to worse because last year was such a sharp heavily skewed decline. But again. There's no success of accurately assigning chances to a prediction here so 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 is just fine. For simplicity, not for professing.
For one year I could see that sure, but the curve is heading south over the course of four years.
Part of the issue is that keeping Hathaway would have cost $1.5MM per year, while getting Lucic saved $500K per year, for a net difference of $2MM per year. Cap space is very valuable.
This is before taking into account the thought that Lucic on the bottom 6 is better than Neal on the bottom 6.
I still do not like adding Lucic, but understand where the logic is coming from, when looking at all of the variables.
Until the dust settles and this time next year we are looking at options to improve the team and wish we weren't right up to the cap paying $5.25M for a 4th line player.
Until the dust settles and this time next year we are looking at options to improve the team and wish we weren't right up to the cap paying $5.25M for a 4th line player.
As opposed to paying $5.75M for a very ineffective 3/4 liner (or maybe a scratch, like game 5).
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Until the dust settles and this time next year we are looking at options to improve the team and wish we weren't right up to the cap paying $5.25M for a 4th line player.
Until the dust settles and this time next year we are looking at options to improve the team and wish we weren't right up to the cap paying $5.25M for a 4th line player.
If by next year you mean next off season the Flames won't be right up against the cap. nearly 20M will be off the books, with RFA and ELC players filling the rolls at the same cost or even a discount.
Until the dust settles and this time next year we are looking at options to improve the team and wish we weren't right up to the cap paying $5.25M for a 4th line player.
Well I would rather pay $5.25 to a fourth line player over $5.75 to a healthy scratch.
Why do people keep forgetting that we gave them our trash too. Regardless of whether this deal happened, the Flames would be paying a huge chunk of money to a plug.
I really want to see Gaudreau tried at RW in non-international play. When he plays RW internationally he seems to dominate.
Lucic-Backlund-Frolik is an interesting idea. Apparently the fancy stats say that Lucic is a decent player in his own zone. It would also still be the 3M line.
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Until the dust settles and this time next year we are looking at options to improve the team and wish we weren't right up to the cap paying $5.25M for a 4th line player.
I just don't see it that way.
Calgary wanted Reeves, and was outbidding Vegas who signed him for 2 x 2.775. So lets assume Calgary had a 3 x 3 or even 3 x 3.25 on the table.
This demonstrates their perception of a need of a tough guy on the roster, something we've heard about all this summer as well.
They had Neal who could rebound, but would be challenged to do so given how he fit in their roster. Instead they have a guy who is making about $2M more than they would have paid Reeves, and could have a contract that is movable as early as next summer given how much is actually owing on it.
They are over paying by $2M for a tough guy instead of having a player that just didn't fit making $5.75.
This is already a loss because Lucic will never be a player worth a 5.25 million dollar contract.
Neal won't be either, but at least there's a chance he could be traded away at some point without taking 5.25x4 locked back.
You're a big follower of the Oilers. How do you honestly think he's going to fit in this year? You saw him on the Flames, you watch the Oilers, he didn't fit with JG and Monahan, so where the hell do you put him with the Oil when he couldn't even take a pass or hit the net?
I just don't see how his value is suddenly going to go up. His value is as high as it is now because of that chance that he rebounds. If he doesn't, and I think there's a good possibility he doesn't, how in the world do you trade that contract without adding a ton or taking back another bad one?
Not sure you really read my post carefully. I made a key distinction that Neal was never going to get the opportunity to rebound with us because he had already proven to not be a fit in any way.
I did note that Neal could rebound with the Oilers. My point was that he would never get that opportunity to rebound with us because he did not earn it and had zero fit in our lineup. Neal can rebound but it was never going to be with us. My point was that fans who still wanted to give him another chance misread the situation, he was never going to get that chance and didn’t deserve another chance.
Ya, well you can't put a guarantee on that prediction either, just because of what you saw last year.
For all we know he could have come in to camp in top shape, put in a high level of effort, had better chemistry with new linemates, began producing and moved up the lineup because of an injury.
Lucic-Backlund-Frolik is an interesting idea. Apparently the fancy stats say that Lucic is a decent player in his own zone. It would also still be the 3M line.
They are over paying by $2M for a tough guy instead of having a player that just didn't fit making $5.75.
I think this is a fair way to look at it.
Lucic is overpaid, call it 2M, seems close enough to be reasonable (3.25 for a Reaves-like player is still high, but by 500K maybe). But without scoring, he brings some value (not value on the current contract, but value on the ice).
Neal, when he isn't scoring, brings zero value. So if he doesn't magically turn around his game he's either a buyout candidate next year or you're offloading at least a first-round pick to get out of the contract. If you buy him out next year, you're paying 1.9M over 6 years.
So instead of overpaying a player by 2-2.5M for 3 seasons starting next year, you're paying 1.9M in dead cap for nothing. The difference is pretty negligible in price, but getting out of that money 3 years earlier is huge.
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I'm sure training with Gary Roberts will help his fitness, but how does he get his shot back? Neal at his absolute best is still a below-average skater, so even if Roberts is a miracle worker I don't see how going from "brutal skater who can't shoot" to "ok skater who can't shoot" somehow results in 20 goals.
Of his 7 goals, you could argue that none of them were created by his shot:
All 7 of those goals, any other NHL-calibre forward could have scored. Maybe the one-timer against the Avs is debatable, but even then he had a lot of net to shoot at and didn't exactly get a rocket off.
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One other note (and please know that even though I hate this trade, I do think Lucic is a better fit for the Flames than Neal):
Lucic had to ask if going to Calgary would be a good move. Think about that for a minute - you are stuck on the worst franchise in pro sports, no hope of playoffs this year, and a team that finished 2nd overall in the NHL is asking for you, and you have to take your time to see if its a good move?????
