Off Season Trade rumours thread - Brodie, Frolik, Stone etc. Only

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

If he actually puts the work in and bounces back to ~2017 Neal, then the Bennett / Neal combo will be a dominant line and it won't matter that they're not top six. If Jankowski doesn't cut the mustard you take Jankowski off and put someone else there. I have been proposing a Mangiapane - Bennett - Neal line for some time and that is more than enough for Neal to work with.

Neal's job is to be James Neal.

I think it's a combination of both minutes and linemates. If the players you mention get enough minutes, fine. But there's a spot that's going to open up on the second line, and if Neal shows he can fill it in training camp, why not?

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

It's funny, because Neal was pretty atrocious in Vegas from an analytical standpoint. He was bad! But what kept him aloft -- and what kept him scoring -- was playing with two similarly-paced and higher-skilled linemates in Haula and Perron.

Keep the Mangiapane and Ryan chemistry going. And slide Neal right into Frolik's soon-to-be-vacated spot on line 2, where he can play with two high-skilled linemates and work well with them without dragging them down. This isn't a Brouwer situation at all.

I think this is a variation of Chicken and egg though- If neal (even in LV) was only able to put up numbers due to some productive linemates, then it could be possible that a better player put in that same position would actually yield better overall results for the team. Just because one player succeeds more when put into a specific position does not mean that the whole team is performing better, I would posit that it likely means that the whole team has become slightly worse than it could be in order to elevate that one player.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

But it was? Did you not read the graph I presented? Neal improved both Gaudreau and especially Tkachuk defensively in their limited minutes together with marginal negative impact on their offense.

Gaudreau "improving defensively," but his offense taking a much much bigger hit isn't Neal making his teammate better, it's the opposite. Gaudreau had better shots-for:shots-against ratio without Neal, that's not at all a positive impact. It's why away from Neal he's much closer to that grey line.

And again, we're looking at very limited numbers. It's too small of sample size when you're comparing players who played 8% of their 5v5 time with Neal and trying to suggest much of anything.

EDIT: I think you misread your chart if you are calling it marginal negative impact on Gaudreau's offense. He went from 60 score-adjusted shots/60 to 53. Inversely, he went from a score-adjusted shots against/60 of 50 to 46.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Gaudreau "improving defensively," but his offense taking a much much bigger hit isn't Neal making his teammate better, it's the opposite. Gaudreau had better shots-for:shots-against ratio without Neal, that's not at all a positive impact. It's why away from Neal he's much closer to that grey line.

And again, we're looking at very limited numbers. It's too small of sample size when you're comparing players who played 8% of their 5v5 time with Neal and trying to suggest much of anything.

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I think this is a variation of Chicken and egg though- If neal (even in LV) was only able to put up numbers due to some productive linemates, then it could be possible that a better player put in that same position would actually yield better overall results for the team. Just because one player succeeds more when put into a specific position does not mean that the whole team is performing better, I would posit that it likely means that the whole team has become slightly worse than it could be in order to elevate that one player.

Yes, sample size is important. And I'm hardly trying to suggest anything definitive. It's food for thought, and in an offseason where the Flames have largely remained stagnant, it is important to examine all of the lineup possibilities for next season.

The Flames have $5.8 million committed to this player and it's folly to write him off as unsalvageable when his negative impacts are easily offset. Gaudreau is reduced offensively by Neal but his defensive impacts improve. Tkachuk is much the same. Both players remain in a very good place analytically in their short samples with Neal.

Nobody is advocating for sticking with pairings that clearly don't work. But, as you say, the sample size with these linemates is quite small.

Therein lies the problem -- Neal has historically been a player who benefits from skill on his line. Malkin in Pittsburgh, Johansen in Nashville, Perron in Nashville. But he's been stuck with limited producers here in Calgary, with very little time with the top offensive guys. One or two shifts a game after PKs isn't going to cut it -- there's no way to develop chemistry with those deployments.

And what other options do the Flames have? Frolik was a great influence on Tkachuk and Backlund, but he's most likely gone. Czarnik and Mangiapane are there, but while they are good influences on analytics, removing Mangiapane from Ryan would also disrupt team chemistry and the coaching staff seems to have very little trust in Czarnik.

Writing off Neal as "a bust" or "the new Brouwer" is easy to do, but there is reason to believe that he has simply been misplaced in Calgary. There is a clear opportunity this season for him to play with Matthew Tkachuk and produce -- and then, maybe, after that, be traded.

[Flash Walken]

One thing the chart doesn't tell you is why didn't Neal get more looks with the top line to generate a larger sample size?

Because what the on-ice measurements don't tell you is that he looked effing awful up there with them, couldn't keep up, couldn't make plays, couldn't retrieve pucks.

The Flames were playing half a man short handed with Neal out there.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Yeah, it's not from charts that we are suggesting that Neal hurt his teammates. It's from his actual play on the ice.

And then the charts, outside of limited numbers with Tkachuk, showed everyone of his linemates were better off without him, in some cases significantly better off. Just reaffirmed the point.

Hopefully he gets his #### together and plays better next year, but what that chart showed is that everyone takes a dip if they play with Neal. Which might be why in the most important game of the year the coaches thought that the best place for Neal was not on any line but scratched.

[TheScorpion]

This is where analytics meets the "eye test," and I don't disagree with you on that. Neal was visually poor. I'm searching for reasons for optimism, but there's still plenty working against Neal.

However, not everything is 1000000% saying that Neal is terrible in every way like Brouwer was. He still has some redeeming qualities analytically, something absolutely nobody could say about Brouwer. Certain players dipped in one respect when playing with Neal, but not everyone plummeted drastically both offensively and defensively like they did with Brouwer. And this was in Neal's worst season ever where he shot 5% and looked like he had to be suppressing some sort of calamitous hand injury.

I think he has to be better. Perhaps that's misguided optimism.

[TheIronMaiden]

Realistically, what would people call a successful season from Neal?

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Realistically, what would people call a successful season from Neal?

Unexpected equipment allergy and subsequent LTIR style retirement.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Realistically, what would people call a successful season from Neal?

20+ Goals while playing with that Real Deal edge.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Realistically, what would people call a successful season from Neal?

Depends on how he's deployed.

If he played all season with Johnny and Monny and got PP1 time and got 20 goals and 20 assists, it's likely a failure.

If he played on the third line and got PP2 time, those numbers would be a big success.

[TheScorpion]

I think a successful season for Neal includes him completely replacing Frolik's offense while playing on the second line. 15-18 goals, 35-45 points, decent PP2 production. I think that's realistic, considering that he was on a 13-goal, 39-point pace after New Years'.

It'd help if he didn't get any worse defensively, either. For example, Tkachuk allowed 50.0 CA/60 last year, while Neal was closer to 55.6 CA/60 (Corsi attempts against/60 -- higher numbers indicate more shots allowed). Neal's numbers weren't otherworldly bad by any means -- Bennett was at 63.9, indicating that Neal was far from the problem on his line. Monahan was only slightly better than Neal, at 53.4 CA/60. So as long as Neal can avoid being an outright poor defensive player (if he plays with Tkachuk), I think we could see a successful season.

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Depends on how he's deployed.

If he played all season with Johnny and Monny and got PP1 time and got 20 goals and 20 assists, it's likely a failure.

If he played on the third line and got PP2 time, those numbers would be a big success.

He is not getting 40 points playing on the third line.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I think a successful season for Neal includes him completely replacing Frolik's offense while playing on the second line. 15-18 goals, 35-45 points, decent PP2 production. I think that's realistic, considering that he was on a 13-goal, 39-point pace after New Years'.
.

To me that is not successful for a 5.75M player. It certainly would be a step in the right direction and much more positive than last year but if Neal scores 18 goals and 45pts I would not be satisfied with the production.

I agree those numbers are a positive when considering last season but he was brought in to be a 25-30 goal and 50+ pt guy. If he hits 25g 50p I would say it was a successful year.

[Moneyhands23]

Im thinking Neal gets 20 goals and at least 40 pts next year.

I will eat a pube laced order of poutine if he doesn't!!

[Flamette]

Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
Text I received today in regards to Lucic trade rumours.. "All quiet."
Another text from person close to CGY..."Has never been any serious discussions." in regards to Oilers/Flames trade rumours.
#NHL
12:07 PM · Jul 18, 2019 · Twitter Web App

[Toonage]

SO much relief.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Flamette

Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
Text I received today in regards to Lucic trade rumours.. "All quiet."
Another text from person close to CGY..."Has never been any serious discussions." in regards to Oilers/Flames trade rumours.
#NHL
12:07 PM · Jul 18, 2019 · Twitter Web App

Thank you for finding this

Now everyone can step away from the ledge. Time to enjoy a sunny day at the beach!

[mrdonkey]

And a collective sigh of relief rang throughout southern Alberta.

[Robbob]

Lucic never made any sense. I am betting the only conversation that Lucic came up in, was when Brad was talking to Ken about taking the job in Edmonton. Brad probably wished him luck with that Lucic contract as it is quite the anchor.