[News] Hurricanes officially match Aho offer sheet (5 years x $8.454 million)

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by cannon7

...A top talent is now guaranteed to become a UFA in five years (unless he extends, which is unlikely). Habs took three UFA years for a top talent away from a competitor. Could have had four, but I suspect Aho wanted more term...

Why would Aho not extend in five years? Things in the NHL change so quickly that it is impossible to guess about the landscape in even three years from now.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Why would Aho not extend in five years? Things in the NHL change so quickly that it is impossible to guess about the landscape in even three years from now.

He could, but when he extends those will be pure UFA years giving him much more leverage.

[The Yen Man]

The only real thing Carolina lost was the ability to negotiate Aho's contract on their terms, and let the Habs control it. At the end of the day, Carolina gets their guy, even if the term is shorter or dollars a bit more than they wanted. For all we know, maybe 5 years would have been what he ended up signing for with Carolina anyways.

Will this cause resentment between the Canes and the Habs, or the Canes and Aho? Those are harder to measure, and I guess time will tell. But to say Canes lost because Aho's eventually going to leave them, or it kills their internal cap at this point is all just conjecture IMO.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

The only real thing Carolina lost was the ability to negotiate Aho's contract on their terms, and let the Habs control it. At the end of the day, Carolina gets their guy, even if the term is shorter or dollars a bit more than they wanted. For all we know, maybe 5 years would have been what he ended up signing for with Carolina anyways.

This is no small thing. You think Waddell wants a competing GM to dictate the contract terms of his best player? Hell no.

Offer sheets should be more common than they are, this gentleman's agreement GMs appear to have should go by the wayside. This is a great way to ensure that your competition is paying top dollar for their talent. RFAs are still free agents, afterall.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

He could, but when he extends those will be pure UFA years giving him much more leverage.

Of course, but I was addressing the assertion that Aho would be unlikely to extend with Carolina in 2024 because reasons. It's an entirely meaningless line of rhetoric.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Of course, but I was addressing the assertion that Aho would be unlikely to extend with Carolina in 2024 because reasons. It's an entirely meaningless line of rhetoric.

Who was the last player the Canes successfully extended into UFA years? Bet it goes back at least a decade to find the last time that happened.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Uh, but that's the point entirely.

First off, Carolina doesn't care about the cap. They aren't and won't be close. So it's only actual dollars that matter to them.

Now, instead of paying Aho for the next 2 years, 8.5M spread out over this year and 8.5M spread out over next year, like they would have on a 'normal' 8.5M contract they are forced to pay him 12M today and another 11M come July 1, 2020. That's 23M in a calendar year instead of 17M over 2. Add on Marleau's signing bonus of 3M (which admittedly they willingly took) and the team will be spending at least 80M this year in actual money and an additional 10M come July 1st. That's 90M in 366 days for a team that has not spent anywhere near that. It's very likely that was not the plan going into the off-season, and almost certainly does handcuff them in offering other UFAs who could have been available because they've far exceeded their budget for the year. This isn't Toronto or New York, they had a (soft) budget in mind and that would have been thrown out the window with this contract. If Crosby was available tomorrow for Clark Bishop, sure they are going to make that trade 10 times out of 10 but a second tier UFA? Getting the ah-okay to exceed the yearly budget by 20M or so, that's a lot harder pill to swallow.

Now yes, they do 'save' in the future and that needs to be accounted for but just like any type of budget once you exceed it, it's a lot harder to get approval for the "nice-to-have" commodities.

One thing to keep in mind is that Dundon has been an owner for all of one full season. How the Canes operated under Karmanos, and how they may operate under Dundon aren't necessarily going to be the same.

Either way, the argument still fails to demonstrate how Montreal gains as a result of this.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Who was the last player the Canes successfully extended into UFA years? Bet it goes back at least a decade to find the last time that happened.

How long has it been since Carolina had a player as good as Aho is? I bet it goes back at least a decade.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[omelete]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Who was the last player the Canes successfully extended into UFA years? Bet it goes back at least a decade to find the last time that happened.

They extended Teravainen into his UFA years in January.

[1qqaaz]

Didn't they extend Alexander Semin on a 5 year contract?

[getbak]

Slavin, Faulk, and Pesce all signed second contracts that bought UFA years. Staal's current contract was all UFA years.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How long has it been since Carolina had a player as good as Aho is? I bet it goes back at least a decade.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I believe Slavin is at least as valuable as Aho.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

The only real thing Carolina lost was the ability to negotiate Aho's contract on their terms, and let the Habs control it.

You make that sound like it's not much. Aho got the AAV he wanted with a short term, leading him to UFA all that much sooner.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

People saying that Bergevin gained Montreal nothing are just... do you not understand a cost / benefit analysis?

Any chance of getting a player at a palatable cost is worth taking if the downside is non-existent. There is value to Montreal to getting Aho at 8.4AAV for five years in exchange for a first, second and third round pick. That deal constitutes an asset. Sure, maybe there was only a 5% chance that Carolina wouldn't match. Well, the value of a 5% chance of getting him at that cost is worth 5% of the asset's total value. It is, in other words, an asset in itself. Bergevin obtained that 5% asset for the Habs and paid absolutely nothing in return - the Canes matched, no loss to Montreal. It would be dumb not to do that if you have the chance.

In other words, let's say you're offered the chance to bet on the Ottawa Senators to win next year's Stanley Cup. "No way", you might say, "that is extremely unlikely to happen". But what if the bet was, if the Senators win the Stanley Cup, you get $1000, and if they don't, you lose nothing at all? Why wouldn't you take that bet?

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

People saying that Bergevin gained Montreal nothing are just... do you not understand a cost / benefit analysis?

Any chance of getting a player at a palatable cost is worth taking if the downside is non-existent. There is value to Montreal to getting Aho at 8.4AAV for five years in exchange for a first, second and third round pick. That deal constitutes an asset. Sure, maybe there was only a 5% chance that Carolina wouldn't match. Well, the value of a 5% chance of getting him at that cost is worth 5% of the asset's total value. It is, in other words, an asset in itself. Bergevin obtained that 5% asset for the Habs and paid absolutely nothing in return - the Canes matched, no loss to Montreal. It would be dumb not to do that if you have the chance.

In other words, let's say you're offered the chance to bet on the Ottawa Senators to win next year's Stanley Cup. "No way", you might say, "that is extremely unlikely to happen". But what if the bet was, if the Senators win the Stanley Cup, you get $1000, and if they don't, you lose nothing at all? Why wouldn't you take that bet?

So you're saying this time they only had to pay 5 cents to predict the outcome of the coin flip?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

This quote and the talk that Montreal had some sort of intel that the bonus structure would be the poison, I've been wondering if that wasn't a genius strategy by Carolina leaking that false information that they were worried about max bonuses. That had a team try to structure the deal around a reasonable AAV and term with max bonus structure instead of thinking that it would take an unreasonable AAV to get the player.

Wait. What?

If Carolina tricked Montreal and Aho into signing this deal by some genius move, the question becomes "Why?". Carolina could have just offered Aho the deal in that case.

The only reason Aho would not accept the same deal he signed from Montreal is if he was trying to get out of Carolina somehow, and that means in 5 years he's gonzo. Nothing particular points to this being a ploy by Carolina.

Unless Carolina and Aho colluded knowing they could tie up capspace and draft picks for a week from Montreal!

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Wait. What?

If Carolina tricked Montreal and Aho into signing this deal by some genius move, the question becomes "Why?". Carolina could have just offered Aho the deal in that case.

The only reason Aho would not accept the same deal he signed from Montreal is if he was trying to get out of Carolina somehow, and that means in 5 years he's gonzo. Nothing particular points to this being a ploy by Carolina.

Unless Carolina and Aho colluded knowing they could tie up capspace and draft picks for a week from Montreal!

Montreal tried to trade for him first and because perhaps Carolina knew that Montreal was going to offer sheet Aho.

Why not both? Aho had no motivation to rush into a deal with Carolina and we don't know where negotiations were at. Also spreading a rumour they wouldn't match a max bonuses contract wasn't challenging and wouldn't have any impact on their contract negotiation with Aho if an offer sheet never came around.

Perhaps it was as simple as Aho's agent that was trying to negotiate high bonuses and was told by Carolina they wouldn't consider giving Aho a contract that included bonuses so they told that to Montreal.

[FireGilbert]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

People saying that Bergevin gained Montreal nothing are just... do you not understand a cost / benefit analysis?

Any chance of getting a player at a palatable cost is worth taking if the downside is non-existent. There is value to Montreal to getting Aho at 8.4AAV for five years in exchange for a first, second and third round pick. That deal constitutes an asset. Sure, maybe there was only a 5% chance that Carolina wouldn't match. Well, the value of a 5% chance of getting him at that cost is worth 5% of the asset's total value. It is, in other words, an asset in itself. Bergevin obtained that 5% asset for the Habs and paid absolutely nothing in return - the Canes matched, no loss to Montreal. It would be dumb not to do that if you have the chance.

In other words, let's say you're offered the chance to bet on the Ottawa Senators to win next year's Stanley Cup. "No way", you might say, "that is extremely unlikely to happen". But what if the bet was, if the Senators win the Stanley Cup, you get $1000, and if they don't, you lose nothing at all? Why wouldn't you take that bet?

I was trying to put something like this into words but you have already done it for me.

The only thing Montreal loses here is time spent negotiating and a week with cap space and draft picks tied up in limbo. Looking at the Habs situation there were no UFAs left to negotiate with and you will have the entire off season to look at other RFA.

If you think the offer sheet gives you a 10% or even 1% chance at the player why no go for it when you essentially lose nothing?

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by omelete

They extended Teravainen into his UFA years in January.

That's not the same scenario. Of course they've re-signed RFAs.

I'm talking about a pending UFA extending their contract with the Hurricanes.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by timbit

I believe Slavin is at least as valuable as Aho.

Not a pending UFA when he re-signed.