[Rumour] UPD: Flames sign Cam Talbot (1yr, $2.75mil)

[timbit]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

What’s your best guess?

I don’t know much about the arbitration process. I imagine both sides present arguments to a panel and the decision is binding...but I don’t know what comparables are included or excluded.

I fear the result is north of 3.5 million, and I fear that because he earned it IMHO

Could you provide some of your comparable contracts that are RFAs or have existing contracts that were not signed as UFA s?

2.5 to 2.75 sounds very reasonable for Rittich, IMO.

[dammage79]

Rittich is probably pushing for more term and money than the Flames want. They may like him but I bet they dont like him THAT much. I dont know, I'm not confident in Rittich like others are here on this site.

I think right now adding a couple million to what Rittich will earn to land Lehner would be better. I think Lehner would be a great fit.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Rittich has 1 year left of RFA status.

Imagine a 2 year deal, one at 2.25M, one at 3.25M. $2.75M AAV.

About what I was thinking. Add $500K for every year.

1 year $2.25 AAV
2 year $2.75 AAV
3 year $3.25 AAV

As Browna said a few posts back I think there is enough evidence to suggest Peters at least is not yet sold on Rittich so they may not want to pay him more than what an excellent backup makes. 2 year deal makes sense.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by timbit

Could you provide some of your comparable contracts that are RFAs or have existing contracts that were not signed as UFA s?

2.5 to 2.75 sounds very reasonable for Rittich, IMO.

You might be right and it may turn out that way

...but paying a player who went 27-9-5 last season less than another player who was, at best, a dumpster fire last season....well it just doesn’t feel right

[timbit]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

You might be right and it turn out that way

...but paying a player who went 27-9-5 last season less than another player who was, at best, a dumpster fire last season....well it just doesn’t feel right

If Rittich was a UFA, you would be correct in your assumption. He is not. Talbot is and acquisition cost or lack thereof is a huge part of the equation.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ I always get a kick out of ‘winning the cup’ as some sort of meaningful data point. Most goalies with a decent career play, what, 10 years?

Last year, 70 goalies saw 10 games. 97 percent of them didn’t win the cup. 1.5 percent of them really won the cup.

The team has to be good enough to win in order for the goalie to even have a chance, something out of his control. He can help, and must do so.

Basically any GM making a move for a goalie, if the cup is the goal, is statistically overwhelmingly likely to be unsuccessful.

Some people might say it's the only meaningful data point.

The goalie also has to be good enough to win for the team to even have a chance.

Cup Winning Goalies who never achieved more than a single Vezina vote in a given year:

Ranford (1 vote in two separate years)
Matt Murray (0 votes...yet)


Only received votes after winning the cup:

Niemi finished 3rd in 2013
Cam Ward (won cup in rookie year...finished 7th twice)
Fleury (several seasons)
Crawford (3 diff seasons)

This is voted by NHL GM's, ranking their top 3 each season. Imperfect, but a pretty decent glimpse of the top 5ish goalies each season.

Of course there are plenty of good goalies that don't win the cup. But, it is exceptionally rare for a team to win the cup without a really good goalie (ie. one who garners multiple vezina votes in multiple seasons).


Good news is that Talbot finished 4th in 2017 (and a single vote in 2015).

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Rittich is probably pushing for more term and money than the Flames want. They may like him but I bet they dont like him THAT much. I dont know, I'm not confident in Rittich like others are here on this site.

I think right now adding a couple million to what Rittich will earn to land Lehner would be better. I think Lehner would be a great fit.

A few days ago I would have dismissed this, but now I agree. If Rittich wants something like 3.5, and Lehner wants what the Islanders offered but with more term, you pay the extra 500k-1m and go for Lehner

edit: my memory is broken, for some reason I thought the isles were only offering him 4m. Point still stands though, if what he wants is term offer 4.5x5

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by btimbit

A few days ago I would have dismissed this, but now I agree. If Rittich wants something like 3.5, and Lehner wants what the Islanders offered but with more term, you pay the extra 500k-1m and go for Lehner

They qualified Rittich so he’s our 1A until you’d find a trade partner.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

They qualified Rittich so he’s our 1A until you’d find a trade partner.

Very true, but I think goalies are very tradeable right now. Someone like the Hurricanes would lunge at a guy like rittich if he came onto the market, depending on where the chips fall tomorrow of course

[sureLoss]

Andy Strickland @andystrickland
Talbot turned down better offers to bet on himself in Calgary. Believed to have a two-year offer from #Flyers

[Icon]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Andy Strickland @andystrickland
Talbot turned down better offers to bet on himself in Calgary. Believed to have a two-year offer from #Flyers

He's got a better shot here at a #1 spot over Hart in Philly methinks.

[FlamesNation23]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Andy Strickland @andystrickland
Talbot turned down better offers to bet on himself in Calgary. Believed to have a two-year offer from #Flyers

Love to hear that. He’s going to come in motivated to win the number 1 job and will have a much better defense in front of him.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Andy Strickland @andystrickland
Talbot turned down better offers to bet on himself in Calgary. Believed to have a two-year offer from #Flyers

I love it. The SN panel were just discussing Talbot; Friedman says that he will do much better than he did last season behind a substantially better defense in Calgary than in Edmonton; Burke agree that Talbot is much better than he performed last year, and confirms that the Flames were in on him hard when he was first traded to Edmonton from NYR.

This is an excellent reclamation project that has a great chance of working out for both parties.

[JurassicTunga12]

Cool to hear! Happy to have him

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

This is an interesting bet.

I see the Flames as having a pretty clear 4 year window, until Johnny's deal is up (the year we just saw being year 1 of 4). Gambling on a goalie tandem in year 2 of 4, when goaltending has clearly been your biggest question mark at all times, is generally not a great idea. But in this circumstance, the plan seems to be, "let's see if Rittich was a flash in the pan, and let's see if Talbot can get back to league average status if he's behind a legitimately good hockey team rather than a disorganized mess. If either of those things happens, we take our shot. If neither does, we look for plan B at the deadline".

That's my guess, anyway.

[sureLoss]

960 says Talbot already spotted at the Saddledome

[Locke]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Andy Strickland @andystrickland
Talbot turned down better offers to bet on himself in Calgary. Believed to have a two-year offer from #Flyers

I always like when a player does that, his motivation is clear.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This is an interesting bet.

I see the Flames as having a pretty clear 4 year window, until Johnny's deal is up (the year we just saw being year 1 of 4). Gambling on a goalie tandem in year 2 of 4, when goaltending has clearly been your biggest question mark at all times, is generally not a great idea. But in this circumstance, the plan seems to be, "let's see if Rittich was a flash in the pan, and let's see if Talbot can get back to league average status if he's behind a legitimately good hockey team rather than a disorganized mess. If either of those things happens, we take our shot. If neither does, we look for plan B at the deadline".

That's my guess, anyway.

The idea of a "window" for a young team is fairly exaggerated. Three years is a long time, and the Flames are not a team in the looming predicament of SJ, LA, Anaheim, or Chicago where most of their top players are in their late-20s or early-30s.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Andy Strickland @andystrickland
Talbot turned down better offers to bet on himself in Calgary. Believed to have a two-year offer from #Flyers

Love it. He wants to kick sand at Edmonton so bad.

[David Struch]

I'm glad the goalie situation is taken care of early. I like the idea of another vet added to the team but I would be ecstatic if any of our five young goalies (Rittich, Gillies, Zagidulin, Parsons, Schneider) were able to grab hold the reins by season's end.