The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Maybe we could even find a Tkachuk with all those picks. Probably not though because they would all be mid to late picks most likely.

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The Flames have traded two 1st round picks in the last four years - they have Hamonic, Hanifin and Lindholm to show for it.

If someone gave Tkachuk a mega deal (which he is not worth), the Flames could use 1st round picks to address organizational holes for the next four years while still picking on Day 1. They can be in on rentals at the deadline. They can trade up at the draft. They can do a lot of things.

It won't come to that - anyone who'd give that sort of deal to Tkachuk would just give it to Marner first, and Toronto is in a much poorer position to match an offersheet like that than Calgary.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The Flames have traded two 1st round picks in the last four years - they have Hamonic, Hanifin and Lindholm to show for it.

If someone gave Tkachuk a mega deal (which he is not worth), the Flames could use 1st round picks to address organizational holes for the next four years while still picking on Day 1. They can be in on rentals at the deadline. They can trade up at the draft. They can do a lot of things.

It won't come to that - anyone who'd give that sort of deal to Tkachuk would just give it to Marner first, and Toronto is in a much poorer position to match an offersheet like that than Calgary.

Since the player needs to accept he offer sheet, you just can't assume that a Marner offer sheet would come first. Or maybe it does, but he rejects it.

And the Flames traded well more than a few first round picks for those players, but your point stands.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Since the player needs to accept he offer sheet, you just can't assume that a Marner offer sheet would come first. Or maybe it does, but he rejects it.

And the Flames traded well more than a few first round picks for those players, but your point stands.

Any team that wants Mitch Marner enough to offersheet him is not offersheeting Tkachuk first. From Marner's perspective, why would you not sign 7/$70M from Team X? You get paid, and don't miss any time. Toronto matches or they don't.

There isn't a player in the cap era worth four 1sts, IMO. Not a single one. And I would imagine the list of GMs who disagree with that is short. If it exists at all.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Any team that wants Mitch Marner enough to offersheet him is not offersheeting Tkachuk first. From Marner's perspective, why would you not sign 7/$70M from Team X? You get paid, and don't miss any time. Toronto matches or they don't.

There isn't a player in the cap era worth four 1sts, IMO. Not a single one. And I would imagine the list of GMs who disagree with that is short. If it exists at all.

Just off the top of my head I would take Nathan Mackinnon for our next 4 firsts.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

LOL I would hope you could parlay eight 1st round picks in a 4 year period or into a player just as good or better if not two and as well as a couple of players that could slot into your top 6 forwards and top 4 defense. There's ample ammunition there to trade up in at least a couple of drafts to pick in the top 10 or even top 5. Valimaki was a mid round pick remember.

You should check out our history of drafting outside the top 6 in the first round in the last 15 years. Valimaki, Backlund and Jankowski. I'm pretty sure Tod Button has been there through all of that so those extra 4 picks dont fill me with confidence that another Tkachuk level player could be found. We got pretty lucky on the Carolina and Boston deals, can't expect trades like that very often.

And it's brutally difficult to trade into the top 5/10. No point in even bringing it up. It's happened like once in franchise history.

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[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Just off the top of my head I would take Nathan Mackinnon for our next 4 firsts.

I think part of the assumption is tkachuk signs a bad deal and we take 4 firsts rather than match

MacKinnon is 1 of many players I'd trade 4 firsts for. Superstar player unreal contract with 4 years left on deal.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How unsurprising from you to take an extreme position and then insist that anything more tempered is somehow incredulous. Tkachuk is not even the Flames best player, and I am not certain that any single one of them makes enough of a difference between winning the Pacific Division and making the playoffs.

It's a laughable—but typical—drive by.

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He's the second best offensive player and the 3rd best overall player on the roster.

Next year at 22 he might be the best player on the roster and if so a top 10-15 player in the whole league.

Absolutely classic that a homer like you can't recognize a guy who scored 34 goals at 20-21 years of age is worth a cap adjusted amount to make him the highest paid player on the team.

And that you would take DRAFT PICKS in exchange for that player, in the MIDDLE of the Flames winning window (?!). The Flames have made the playoffs 2 of 3 years with Tkachuk and missed the playoffs 5 of 6 years before he arrived. Like, what team have you been watching for 20 years?

You don't think having Tkachuk going point per game from the second friggin' line contributed an extra few wins on the year? That having a legit second line scoring threat didn't free up icetime for the top line?

You're supposed to be a mod here and you go back to edit a post you made to be even more insulting than it was initially? That's the standard here we're supposed to follow?

Laugh Out Loud funny at any goof that thinks losing one of the best Flames players in the last 20 years for a handful of draft picks in the middle of their best opportunity to win a cup in 30 years.

Wonderful idea, rebuild the roster in the midst of Gaudreau's absolutely crazy cap hit. Very realistic. Not at all one of the dumbest ideas in the history of this message board.

Use a shred of logic here and I won't dismiss ludicrous opinions out of hand.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

You should check out our history of drafting outside the top 6 in the first round in the last 15 years. Valimaki, Backlund and Jankowski. I'm pretty sure Tod Button has been there through all of that so those extra 4 picks dont fill me with confidence that another Tkachuk level player could be found. We got pretty lucky on the Carolina and Boston deals, can't expect trades like that very often.

And it's brutally difficult to trade into the top 5/10. No point in even bringing it up. It's happened like once in franchise history.

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I know it very well and I'm still a little ticked about 2013 where they wasted the two picks acquired in the Iginla and Bouwmeester deals. That doesn't mean I would turn down four 1st round picks as that gives a GM unprecedented options. I like Tkachuk and all but IMO he's not an elite player (elite talent + poor skating = not elite overall player IMO) so if the right team makes the offer and it would result in four 1st round picks then I'm leaning to taking them. Besides this is just forum discussion as it's not like any team is going to offer sheet him anyway. Marner is a much better player and it's doubtful he gets an offer sheet.

[The Fonz]

Haven't read the thread, but I wouldn't be surprised, nor would I give a rip (assuming it was an 8yr term) if Tkachuk were given a 9M AAV.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

He's the second best offensive player and the 3rd best overall player on the roster.

Next year at 22 he might be the best player on the roster and if so a top 10-15 player in the whole league.

This is all entirely possible, yes.

Absolutely classic that a homer like you can't recognize a guy who scored 34 goals at 20-21 years of age is worth a cap adjusted amount to make him the highest paid player on the team.

Excuse me? I what now? What ever gave you the idea that I would be opposed to making Matthew Tkachuk the Flames's highest paid player?

How typical that you retreat to labelling other posters "homers" for having the temerity to challenge your over-the-top exaggerations about the dire straights of this team.

And that you would take DRAFT PICKS in exchange for that player, in the MIDDLE of the Flames winning window (?!)...

What on earth are you talking about? I have six posts in this thread, and have not once in any of them argued in favour of accepting draft picks in exchange for Tkachuk.

The Flames have made the playoffs 2 of 3 years with Tkachuk and missed the playoffs 5 of 6 years before he arrived. Like, what team have you been watching for 20 years?

The same team that I was watching the 20 years prior to that. The same team that faltered in the playoffs when their 21-year-old superstar winger suddenly also disappeared in Game 2 this year. I have watched this game and this team long enough to know that we are prone to overvaluing individual contributions, and that the difference between winning and losing is quite frequently more complicated and nuanced than simply interchanging players X and Y.

You don't think having Tkachuk going point per game from the second friggin' line contributed an extra few wins on the year?

A few? Yes.
As many as seven? No.

...That having a legit second line scoring threat didn't free up icetime for the top line?

I am sure it helped, but Tkachuk is not entirely indispensable. As I noted earlier I am not sure that any single player is.

You're supposed to be a mod here and you go back to edit a post you made to be even more insulting than it was initially? That's the standard here we're supposed to follow?

You balked at my response to your over-the-top suggestion that Matthew Tkachuk was the difference between missing the playoffs and winning the Pacific division by calling it not-believably serious, and you're insulted?

Laugh Out Loud funny at any goof that thinks losing one of the best Flames players in the last 20 years for a handful of draft picks in the middle of their best opportunity to win a cup in 30 years.

Laugh out loud all you want, but don't do it in my direction since I have never advocated for any of this.

Wonderful idea, rebuild the roster in the midst of Gaudreau's absolutely crazy cap hit. Very realistic. Not at all one of the dumbest ideas in the history of this message board.

Again, not something at all that I ever entertained as beneficial, but I do think that there is a chasm of other outcomes between winning the Division and missing the playoffs outright sans Tkachuk. He is not the lynch pin for the entire team.

Use a shred of logic here and I won't dismiss ludicrous opinions out of hand.

Take a look in the mirror, and stop projecting. If there is a crisis of logic at play between our posts it most certainly is not to be found in my offerings in this thread since my opinion has extended only as far as the following points:

· Mikael Backlund is not a "plumber" (thanks for that gem)
· Matthew Tkachuk's next cap hit projects to around $8.0 m on the basis of his production and League inflation
· The cap hit on Tkachuk's next contract will arguably be close in range to the same 9.25% ratio that Gaudreau earned on his six-year deal, if not higher
· The difference between David Rittich's and Matthew Tkachuk's salary expectations are significantly tied to their respective ages and the fact that Rittich is a goalie
· Leon Draisaitl is not really a centre
· The absence of Matthew Tkachuk would not necessarily result in the Flames missing the playoffs outright

I think the fact that you would label any of these as "ludicrous opinions" says a lot.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You don't let Tkachuk go over 8.5. Now 9.5 is a whole other ballgame.

8.5 makes him the highest winger in the league except Kucherov, Benn, Kane, Stone, and Ovie (and Perry ever so slightly).

It's Draisaitl money except Draisaitl was given it on the assumption he'd be a C, and we mostly think it was too much for him. I love Tkachuk but he hasn't proven to me he can drive a line consistently, unlike the other wingers.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

You'd let Tkachuk go over a 6-7 year $8.5M contract?

Lmaoooo

That’s right. Considering the compensation I would. Happy to amuse you though.

[savemedrzaius]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That’s right. Considering the compensation I would. Happy to amuse you though.

You'd let him go for 8.5 mil x 5 years?

So 2 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

You'd let him go for 8.5 mil x 5 years?

So 2 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd?

I was considering the higher term sheet. But for only 5 years the contract is too high.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

8.5 makes him the highest winger in the league except Kucherov, Benn, Kane, Stone, and Ovie (and Perry ever so slightly).

It's Draisaitl money except Draisaitl was given it on the assumption he'd be a C, and we mostly think it was too much for him. I love Tkachuk but he hasn't proven to me he can drive a line consistently, unlike the other wingers.

$8.5 m is "Draisaitl money" insofar as it is the same cap hit as Draisaitl's contract, but it is not really quite the same when factoring into consideration that $8.5 m is presently just over 10% of the current salary cap, whereas Draisaitl's cap-hit was 11.3% of the cap at the time it was signed. It's a small difference, but one that I feel is likely to be important.

*EDIT* With that said, I am not sure that I would go higher than $8.0 m on an eight-year deal for Tkachuk. I expect the extension will look more like Gaudreau’s with inflation: around $7.7 m for six years, which I think is fine.

[savemedrzaius]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I was considering the higher term sheet. But for only 5 years the contract is too high.

I think this is fair value and the Flames would match.

But hypothetical situation say a team offers 11 million a season for Marner I'd say take the 4 draft picks and then offer sheet Tkachuk 8.5 million x 5 years.

4 1sts and Tkachuk for Marner and 2 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

I think this is fair value and the Flames would match.



But hypothetical situation say a team offers 11 million a season for Marner I'd say take the 4 draft picks and then offer sheet Tkachuk 8.5 million x 5 years.



4 1sts and Tkachuk for Marner and 2 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd

Calgary matches that in a second.


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[savemedrzaius]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Calgary matches that in a second.


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Exactly. That's what I'm saying. 8.5 x 5 is best case scenario for the Flames.

These young guys have caught on. They don't sign for what they are worth now. They sign for what they will be worth in a couple years. So many contracts in the past were signed to only become great deals for the team's in a year or two (Gaudreau, McKinnon, Pasta..) I think we will start to see more and more players hold out for a season to get what they deserve.

[Vinny01]

I would love to get an 8 year deal even if the cap hit is $10M

I get the feeling it will be $7.75M for 5 years.

[Weitz]

I don't think he signs a deal longer than 5 years.

I think that is the new trend now for big RFA's.

My summer projection:
- Marner signs for about $11 million for 5 years in mid July
- Ratanan/Point/Aho/Tkachuk don't sign till September.

I don't think Tkachuk signs till after all those guys do as he is a little below them and wants to maximize his value.