The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

That’s not what I was distilling your take down to.

The point is this: the NHL changes. You’re talking like things haven’t changed, and that outliers don’t affect change. It’s wishful. Trotting out things like “we can’t pay him top 10 money if he’s now top ten player” without looking at all the top ten players NOT being paid that money, or other completely irrelevant factors as reasoning behind your position is just really naive. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Even balking at 9-9.5/8 and then throwing out 7.2 over 5. UFA years cost money, 3 more years of them costs money.

1.8 extra per year for 3 extra years of UFA isn’t even remotely unrealistic.

I dunno, it is basically buying the outer 3 years at almost 12 million per.

Depends what the player does between now and then and where the market is at. I don’t know if I see the salary escalation continuing like it has the past say 5 years. Not sure what the major untapped revenue streams will be

[DeluxeMoustache]

So just as a follow up, here are some data points. These are all of the contracts in the NHL, which were signed as RFA, with cap hits over 7 million.

So we are not counting a lot of UFA guys who have won Cups and gotten paid, like Crosby (who was pretty much always paid), Kane, etc. Or, you know, UFA guys who didn’t do anything but had Leaf jammies as a kid and left NYI for Toronto.


McDavid 12.5
Matthews 11.6
Eichel 10
Ovechkin - 9.54

We won’t discuss the above, they are all centres that are first overall picks, better than Tkachuk, or they are Ovechkin. Carrying on...

- Kucherov 9.5 - Winger. First he did a bridge, 3 yrs at 4.8. Had 100 points in 2017-18. 9.5 long term deal starts next year.
- Subban 9 - D. did 2 year bridge at 2.75. Had just won the Norris trophy.
- Draisaitl 8.5 - C / W - paid to be a center. RFA breaking contract. ..well, it’s the Oilers
- Giroux 8.275 - C, did 3 year bridge at 3.75 first , had seasons of 93 and 86 points behind him.
- Johansen 8 - Center, also did a 3 year bridge at 4
- Weber 7.86 - 14 year deal, did a 3 yr bridge at 4.5 first
- Kuznetsov 7.8 - C, did 2 yrs bridge x3 M
- Tarasenko 7.5 - winger, straight from ELC
- Ekblad 7.5 - D, straight from ELC
- Rask 7 - did 2 x 1.25 off his ELC and a year at 3.5

Then sub 7 M you have the next couple being
- Nylander 6.96
- Gaudreau 6.75

So to folks saying Tkachuk deserves 9.5 over 8, we can stop right there. He is no Kucherov. He is not projecting to be a guy who gets 128 points right now.

The only comparable in the list that is above 7 is Tarasenko.

Most forwards in the list are centres. Only a handful of wingers.
Many of the other guys had accomplished something more.
Giroux had gone to the cup finals in 09-10
Subban had a Norris
etc.


So all of this 9-9.5 stuff.. well, I don’t think so.

Frankly, I believe there is a case where with short enough term, the Gio cap can be observed.

Matthew was almost a point per game, crapped the bed along with his teammates down the stretch and in the playoffs, and hasn’t accomplished anything, outside of impressing a bunch of people here.

[GreenLantern2814]

Can I also say, $7M buys you one helluva player. Nobody who's arguing for the lower end of the spectrum thinks Tkachuk isn't worth the money.

$9.5m buys you UFA Mark Stone for 8 years. It doesn't make sense to pay that money for an RFA at less than max term, even if you think he's better (and as of right now, Stone is better than Tkachuk).

The guy probably deserves more money than Nylander. He's got more points in fewer games and he's a good defensive player with size who's not done getting better. But he deserves tens or hundreds of thousands more. Not millions.

Matt Duchene is going to get $8.5-9.5M as a centre on the UFA market. Nobody has made a convincing argument why Tkachuk deserves UFA 1st line centre money when he's not a centre, not a 1st line player on his own team, and has one year out of three where he was ALMOST a PPG player.

Auston Matthews scored 40 goals as an 18 year old and followed that with 34 and 37. And plays centre. In Toronto. That's why he got $11.6M.

He will be signed to a reasonable contract that secures his family's future for the next hundred years. What's unfair about that?

[DJones]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Can I also say, $7M buys you one helluva player. Nobody who's arguing for the lower end of the spectrum thinks Tkachuk isn't worth the money.

$9.5m buys you UFA Mark Stone for 8 years. It doesn't make sense to pay that money for an RFA at less than max term, even if you think he's better (and as of right now, Stone is better than Tkachuk).

The guy probably deserves more money than Nylander. He's got more points in fewer games and he's a good defensive player with size who's not done getting better. But he deserves tens or hundreds of thousands more. Not millions.

Matt Duchene is going to get $8.5-9.5M as a centre on the UFA market. Nobody has made a convincing argument why Tkachuk deserves UFA 1st line centre money when he's not a centre, not a 1st line player on his own team, and has one year out of three where he was ALMOST a PPG player.

Auston Matthews scored 40 goals as an 18 year old and followed that with 34 and 37. And plays centre. In Toronto. That's why he got $11.6M.

He will be signed to a reasonable contract that secures his family's future for the next hundred years. What's unfair about that?

This is how I see it too. Him getting 9 million seems insane to me. 8 for max term imo.

[GreenLantern2814]

Another factor to consider: this is the best UFA class in a decade.

Erik Karlsson, 29
Artemi Panarin, 27
Matt Duchene, 28
Jeff Skinner, 27
Kevin Hayes, 27
Micheal Ferland, 27
Joonas Donskoi, 27
Jordan Eberle, 29
Joe Pavelski, 34
Mats Zuccarello, 31
Gustav Nyqvist, 29
Tyler Myers, 29
Jake Gardiner, 28
Marcus Johansson, 28
Colin Wilson, 29
Sergei Bobrovsky, 30
Semyon Varlamov, 31

If you have an organizational need come July 1, you can address it with straight cash. Why give up multiple first round picks to overpay Matthew Tkachuk (and ensure Brad never takes your calls again) when you can overpay a veteran and keep your picks?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

$9.5m buys you UFA Mark Stone for 8 years. It doesn't make sense to pay that money for an RFA at less than max term, even if you think he's better (and as of right now, Stone is better than Tkachuk).

The guy probably deserves more money than Nylander. He's got more points in fewer games and he's a good defensive player with size who's not done getting better. But he deserves tens or hundreds of thousands more. Not millions.

Matt Duchene is going to get $8.5-9.5M as a centre on the UFA market. Nobody has made a convincing argument why Tkachuk deserves UFA 1st line centre money when he's not a centre, not a 1st line player on his own team, and has one year out of three where he was ALMOST a PPG player.

Auston Matthews scored 40 goals as an 18 year old and followed that with 34 and 37. And plays centre. In Toronto. That's why he got $11.6M.

This is all well and good, but it still seems like both you and Deluxe are just completely missing the point. Sure, bring up guys like Stone, Duchene, Subban, Weber (???), but none of them are comparable. None of them make a lick of difference to what Tkachuk will or won’t get.

Yeah, 9ish gets you Stone or Duchene in UFA. Very cool. “Neat” even. 27 and 28 years old, respectively, and guys who are likely as good now as they will ever be.

Nobody that I know of has attached the 9.5 number to less than 8 years for Tkachuk. If they have, they’re out to lunch, fair enough. But we’re talking max here, and 9ish sounds very reasonable to take a player the caliber of Tkachuk (already at 21) right through his prime to 29 years old.

In 8 years, Stone (who has had a whopping 1 season over a point per game) will be 35. How good are players between 30 and 35 compared to players between 24 and 29? Who do you think is going to be better over the course of the next 8 years?

And Duchene, just like Tkachuk, a whopping ZERO seasons where he’s managed to hit a point per game, after how many years in the league? And he’s some high water mark? He’s 28, on his 3rd and possibly 4th team coming up here. What?

I get it. If you think Tkachuk is as good as he’ll ever be, 9.5 over 8 is a lot of money. Though, Stone and Duchene who statistically aren’t much better and certainly aren’t poised to get a whole lot better before they start getting a whole lot, are definitely “worth” 9.5.

9.5 over 8 is not about today, it’s about 3 years from now and beyond. How well did a bridge deal work out for Montreal with Subban? Seems like it blew up in their face. You sign Tkachuk for 9.5 over 8 now not because he’s worth 9.5 today, but because when the cap goes up and Tkachuk is better in 3 years, you’re paying a hell of a lot more for all of the years after that.

Matthews got 11.6 and not 9.5 because of the stats you mentioned. That’s why we’re not talking about Tkachuk at 11.6. Matthews also got 11.6 and not 13.6 because he signed for 5 years, not max term. I fully believe Tkachuk comes in between 7 and 8 on a 5 year deal. And I don’t think that’s necessarily bad.

Much like you haven’t been convinced that Tkachuk deserves 9.5 over 8, I haven’t been convinced otherwise. And bringing up older guys who aren’t much better, guys who signed 5+ years ago, or guys who signed 4-6 year contracts as evidence otherwise just isn’t compelling or close to relevant enough to matter.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ that was a complete list of contracts signed as RFAs, worth more than 7 M AAV. Why would Weber be excluded? It is a list based on criteria, not opinions. I didn’t hand pick guys, I chose every single contract that is where you guys are saying Tkachuk ends.

We obviously can agree to disagree.

I’m not missing your idea about paying for expectations. I don’t know why you keep saying people are missing things, naive, what have you.

Tkachuk is not a franchise center, or a center at all. Not a first overall pick, didn’t end up on a team where the team was struggling and he was the face of the franchise / saviour, for a team that desperately needed a marquee player on the ice. That’s Matthews et al. Very different players, positions, franchise situations, etc. They were already the most important player on their teams, who were also desperate.

Now you move on to wingers.

Frankly I am quite surprised that you appear to simply ignore Kucherov. He is 9.5 over 8. That isn’t dusty, the payday starts at the same time as Tkachuk’s new deal. Next year. By your argument, Yzerman paid him for not the 100 point season in the bank, but for what he expected. And then Kucherov had 1.64 x Tkachuk’s points. That’s not a player in the same conversation.

Easy question for Tre to ask Tkachuk. You going to get me 128 points? Along with ‘where’d you go down the stretch and in the playoffs, when games matter?’ Tkachuk has more to put together before he asks for UFA money as a RFA.

Why was Subban’s bridge bad for Montreal? 2 bargain years plus the next 6 at 9M is 7.4 average over 8 year.

9.5 is a big deal now because this is a team close to the cap and it is 2-almost 3 M more than they need to spend today. Creates a whole host of other cap problems. Also to go from 5 years at 7 to 8 at 9.5, you are tacking on 3 years at 13.7 million per. Yowza.

I think the list of RFAs is relevant as a data point. Sure, not the be all end all, but basically because they are contracts signed as RFAs. You can clearly see that they are not paid like UFAs, and only a couple of very special wingers are even on the entire list.

I like the player, and like you, I expect 5 years but nearer to 7 than 8, give or take.

I just don’t see committing now to outer years at an elevated level. I don’t think his defensive game is that great. It’s okay, but Backlund does a lot of the heavy lifting defensively. As centres generally do. Which is why they make more than wingers. And I don’t know if the Pre ASG scoring clip is replicable and sustainable. For him as well as the others such as Monahan, Lindholm etc.

RFAs have limited rights and you should have them prove or accomplish something before you back up the truck.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

So just as a follow up, here are some data points. These are all of the contracts in the NHL, which were signed as RFA, with cap hits over 7 million.

So we are not counting a lot of UFA guys who have won Cups and gotten paid, like Crosby (who was pretty much always paid), Kane, etc. Or, you know, UFA guys who didn’t do anything but had Leaf jammies as a kid and left NYI for Toronto.


McDavid 12.5
Matthews 11.6
Eichel 10
Ovechkin - 9.54

We won’t discuss the above, they are all centres that are first overall picks, better than Tkachuk, or they are Ovechkin. Carrying on...

- Kucherov 9.5 - Winger. First he did a bridge, 3 yrs at 4.8. Had 100 points in 2017-18. 9.5 long term deal starts next year.
- Subban 9 - D. did 2 year bridge at 2.75. Had just won the Norris trophy.
- Draisaitl 8.5 - C / W - paid to be a center. RFA breaking contract. ..well, it’s the Oilers
- Giroux 8.275 - C, did 3 year bridge at 3.75 first , had seasons of 93 and 86 points behind him.
- Johansen 8 - Center, also did a 3 year bridge at 4
- Weber 7.86 - 14 year deal, did a 3 yr bridge at 4.5 first
- Kuznetsov 7.8 - C, did 2 yrs bridge x3 M
- Tarasenko 7.5 - winger, straight from ELC
- Ekblad 7.5 - D, straight from ELC
- Rask 7 - did 2 x 1.25 off his ELC and a year at 3.5

Then sub 7 M you have the next couple being
- Nylander 6.96
- Gaudreau 6.75

So to folks saying Tkachuk deserves 9.5 over 8, we can stop right there. He is no Kucherov. He is not projecting to be a guy who gets 128 points right now.

The only comparable in the list that is above 7 is Tarasenko.

Most forwards in the list are centres. Only a handful of wingers.
Many of the other guys had accomplished something more.
Giroux had gone to the cup finals in 09-10
Subban had a Norris
etc.


So all of this 9-9.5 stuff.. well, I don’t think so.

Frankly, I believe there is a case where with short enough term, the Gio cap can be observed.

Matthew was almost a point per game, crapped the bed along with his teammates down the stretch and in the playoffs, and hasn’t accomplished anything, outside of impressing a bunch of people here.

And IMHO this is exactly where this negotiation will end up. Or possibly just Guadreau money short term. Likely to involve a holdout though.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Frankly I am quite surprised that you appear to simply ignore Kucherov. He is 9.5 over 8. That isn’t dusty, the payday starts at the same time as Tkachuk’s new deal. Next year. By your argument, Yzerman paid him for not the 100 point season in the bank, but for what he expected. And then Kucherov had 1.64 x Tkachuk’s points. That’s not a player in the same conversation.

Easy question for Tre to ask Tkachuk. You going to get me 128 points? Along with ‘where’d you go down the stretch and in the playoffs, when games matter?’ Tkachuk has more to put together before he asks for UFA money as a RFA.

Why was Subban’s bridge bad for Montreal? 2 bargain years plus the next 6 at 9M is 7.4 average over 8 year.

9.5 is a big deal now because this is a team close to the cap and it is 2-almost 3 M more than they need to spend today. Creates a whole host of other cap problems. Also to go from 5 years at 7 to 8 at 9.5, you are tacking on 3 years at 13.7 million per. Yowza.

I think the list of RFAs is relevant as a data point. Sure, not the be all end all, but basically because they are contracts signed as RFAs. You can clearly see that they are not paid like UFAs, and only a couple of very special wingers are even on the entire list.

I like the player, and like you, I expect 5 years but nearer to 7 than 8, give or take.

I just don’t see committing now to outer years at an elevated level. I don’t think his defensive game is that great. It’s okay, but Backlund does a lot of the heavy lifting defensively. As centres generally do. Which is why they make more than wingers. And I don’t know if the Pre ASG scoring clip is replicable and sustainable. For him as well as the others such as Monahan, Lindholm etc.

RFAs have limited rights and you should have them prove or accomplish something before you back up the truck.

Kucherov is also 25 with three extra years under his belt, which is not insignificant. But he does provide a pretty good counter point for the Flames to point to when negotiating with Tkachuk.

As far as Subban goes, your numbers are off. Combining his bridge and the first 6 years of his next contract actually sets an AAV of 8.2. If you compare him to EK, Montreal saves $0.75m for two years, and then proceeded to pay an extra $1.7m every year after that (Nashville now, but same thing). Bridge deals have almost always ended up costing team’s more money overall than 7 or 8 year deals. It’s just the upfront cost that sucks.

Imagine if they had signed Gaudreau for 3 years instead of 6. This year would be a disaster.

Not that I think Tkachuk with sign a 2-3 year deal anyway. But it would be a monumental mistake if that happened. Bridge deals are deadly. Almost every bargain contract was one signed long term and signed early.

[Husky]

No way he deserves 8+ million.

[1qqaaz]

Mark Scheifele has a disgustingly good contract. 8 years at 6.1 million? Wow.
Like Tkachuk, he had 2 pretty good 0.5 point per game seasons, then one good season before signing it.

Tkachuk's third season was a bit better, but Scheifele is a big responsible center. That contract was signed 3 years ago.

Put me in the camp that thinks Tkachuk does not make over 8 million per season.

[bubbsy]

If he's looking at north of 8, I'd be happy to see a bridge deal. If guys like Draisaitl got paid due to big playoff performances, tkatchuk is basically the antithesis of this.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

If he's looking at north of 8, I'd be happy to see a bridge deal. If guys like Draisaitl got paid due to big playoff performances, tkatchuk is basically the antithesis of this.

$8 m (9.6%) is relatively close to Gaudreu’s cap hit of $6.75 m (9.25%) on a six year deal against a $73 m cap in 2016.


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[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

$8 m (9.6%) is relatively close to Gaudreu’s cap hit of $6.75 m (9.25%) on a six year deal against a $73 m cap in 2016.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah but if it's down at 7.6/ year it's exactly the same as Gaudreau's %of the cap. I think 7.5 or 7.6 at 8 is very fair. 8 is just stupid when he hasn't proven to be more valuable to our success than Johnny or Gio. If he had played amazing in the playoffs it might be different, but he didnt and this is what he has earned with that play.

Anything less than max term and that dollar amount needs to come down too. I think we'll see a kuch-like 2 or 3 year deal tbh.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Yeah, 9ish gets you Stone or Duchene in UFA. Very cool. “Neat” even. 27 and 28 years old, respectively, and guys who are likely as good now as they will ever be.

Nobody that I know of has attached the 9.5 number to less than 8 years for Tkachuk. If they have, they’re out to lunch, fair enough. But we’re talking max here, and 9ish sounds very reasonable to take a player the caliber of Tkachuk (already at 21) right through his prime to 29 years old.

In 8 years, Stone (who has had a whopping 1 season over a point per game) will be 35. How good are players between 30 and 35 compared to players between 24 and 29? Who do you think is going to be better over the course of the next 8 years?

And Duchene, just like Tkachuk, a whopping ZERO seasons where he’s managed to hit a point per game, after how many years in the league? And he’s some high water mark? He’s 28, on his 3rd and possibly 4th team coming up here. What?

I get it. If you think Tkachuk is as good as he’ll ever be, 9.5 over 8 is a lot of money. Though, Stone and Duchene who statistically aren’t much better and certainly aren’t poised to get a whole lot better before they start getting a whole lot, are definitely “worth” 9.5.

9.5 over 8 is not about today, it’s about 3 years from now and beyond. How well did a bridge deal work out for Montreal with Subban? Seems like it blew up in their face. You sign Tkachuk for 9.5 over 8 now not because he’s worth 9.5 today, but because when the cap goes up and Tkachuk is better in 3 years, you’re paying a hell of a lot more for all of the years after that.

Matthews got 11.6 and not 9.5 because of the stats you mentioned. That’s why we’re not talking about Tkachuk at 11.6. Matthews also got 11.6 and not 13.6 because he signed for 5 years, not max term. I fully believe Tkachuk comes in between 7 and 8 on a 5 year deal. And I don’t think that’s necessarily bad.

There's a lot to respond to here.

1. Stone and Duchene were/are pending UFAs. They get the most money in a bidding war. Tkachuk is an RFA. There isn't a single RFA winger to come out of his ELC in the last five years and get $8M+. It doesn't matter if Stone/Duchene haven't hit PPG, they're UFA. And in Duchene's case, he's a 1st line centre. Veteran 1st line centres are veritable unicorns on the open market.

2. It's not about how good I think Tkachuk can be. That's not what RFA negotiations are about. And furthermore, it can't be had both ways - either you pay based on what you've accomplished, or you pay based on futures. A team might give a player a little more than he might be worth today in the hopes that the contract provides surplus value on the back half. See our actual 1st line LW. You don't pay a 21 year old left winger like a free agent #1C. That's bad GMing.

3. Auston Matthews got the contract he got because he's a 21 year old 6 ft 4 220lb centre with 114 goals through his first three years. That's why.

Tkachuk has done more than enough to get paid. He hasn't done anything to justify resetting the RFA market.

William Nylander, who is the most comparable recent RFA based on production alone, got just under $7M/per after a two month holdout. Nylander is also listed as a centre, even if he doesn't play it regularly - Toronto has the ability to kick him in the middle if they want. Can the Flames move Matthew Tkachuk to centre? No.

This player is worth between $6.5-7.5M. If he wants to miss games over 500k a year, that's his call. I know Keith held out - I would argue it's a little different when you're negotiating with the early 90s Jets or mid 90s Coyotes - teams that don't have money, in vastly different economic realities. There's nothing wrong with a five or six year deal. At least we know Tkachuk will be the player we paid for for the duration of the contract.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

$8 m (9.6%) is relatively close to Gaudreu’s cap hit of $6.75 m (9.25%) on a six year deal against a $73 m cap in 2016.


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Gaudreau is the better player. He should be at a close to but smaller cap hit than Gaudreau,in my opinion.

[DeluxeMoustache]

I have a question about how the players are valued based on last year.

Rittich: great first half ... oh, he was good for the first half of the season. Less effective second half, despite knowing he was injured. Better wait to see if he proves if he can do it year in and year out

Tkachuk: great first half .... dramatic falloff post ASG - better lock him down at top dollar

Is this where people are generally at?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I have a question about how the players are valued based on last year.

Rittich: great first half ... oh, he was good for the first half of the season. Less effective second half, despite knowing he was injured. Better wait to see if he proves if he can do it year in and year out

Tkachuk: great first half .... dramatic falloff post ASG - better lock him down at top dollar

Is this where people are generally at?

Rittich is seven years older than Tkachuk and he is a goalie. I would reckon these two factors weigh very heavily in peoples's valuations for both players.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

$8 m (9.6%) is relatively close to Gaudreu’s cap hit of $6.75 m (9.25%) on a six year deal against a $73 m cap in 2016.


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Considering that Tkachuk was 4th in team scoring in his contract year, while, in contrast, Gaudreau lead the team in scoring in his contract year, it is likely that Tkachuk will get a cap hit % slightly less than Gaudreau, not slightly more. Also keep in mind that goals in 2017-18 were up 11% from 2015-16, making Gaudreau's 78 points in 2015-16 a considerably more impressive feat than Tkachuk's 77 points in 2018-19. I know each player brings different things to the table, but Tkachuk hasn't yet demonstrated that what he brings to the table is more valuable.

I would target 7.5M, which would be just over 9% of the projected 2019-20 cap, on a 6 year deal.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Freeway

If you talk to both guys, Backlund and Tkachuk have admitted that they've helped bring out the best in each other's games.

Do you mean each says that the other brought out the best in his own game? Or each said i need him and he needs me? I think its the former, and hope it wasn't the latter.