Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

does it work that way though?

I thought the tiers were pretty set based on the AAV... an offer sheet with an AAV of 7.5 shows as 1st a 2nd and a 3rd.

edit... nvm... i see its divided by contract years, or 5 years, which ever is the lesser number...

Sure, but if he gets an offer sheet it'll be a 5 year term. That's what he reportedly wants, and a team will want to keep compensation low. It's not like the rules will be a suprised to them, they'd just do 7.5MM x 5 years and pay a 1st/2nd/3rd.

So hypothetically a 7.5mm x7 years would be way more compensation, but they won't actually do that.

[Stauner]

After his performances in the playoffs his value went down. I dont know how you can justify a player that has done nothing in the post season getting over 8 million per year

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Bouw N Arrow

Keller for Tkachuk?

Why would the Flames want a much worse producer who plays a much more perimeter-based style?

The Coyotes would have to add substantially to Keller to get Tkachuk. It would have to be, like, Keller, Fischer, and a 1st.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Stauner

After his performances in the playoffs his value went down. I dont know how you can justify a player that has done nothing in the post season getting over 8 million per year

Because regular season matters for contracts, Tkachuk is going to get paid very large money, blame Edmonton, Buffalo or Toronto if it makes you feel better but if Treliving gets Matt under $8m he should have a religion named after him

[TheoFleury]

It'll be 6 x7.5m imo. I would've said 8m before the playoffs.

[kermitology]

My guess is that Tkachuk misses the opening of the season in a hold out.

[Vinny01]

I don’t think Tkachuk will be scared to sign an offer sheet for what he thinks he is worth. Treliving is going to have to leave some breathing room so he is not backed into a corner. Any offer sheet is probably going to be shorter term potentially when he is still a RFA but ensure the qualifying offer is ridiculously high.

[Jordan!]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Why would the Flames want a much worse producer who plays a much more perimeter-based style?

The Coyotes would have to add substantially to Keller to get Tkachuk. It would have to be, like, Keller, Fischer, and a 1st.

Or we just tender an offer sheet.. so Keller can play with his childhood pal?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Bouw N Arrow

Or we just tender an offer sheet.. so Keller can play with his childhood pal?

Your team has to have money to tender an offer sheet.

[Jordan!]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Your team has to have money to tender an offer sheet.

Things are working themselves out for July 1

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Stauner

After his performances in the playoffs his value went down. I dont know how you can justify a player that has done nothing in the post season getting over 8 million per year

8 teams out of 31 get past the first round...There are plenty of high paid players who have "done nothing" in the playoffs

heck Marner had 2 goals in 7 games

[FanIn80]

Tkachuk = 6x6m tops.

Players only get paid during the regular season, but they should have to earn that pay during the playoffs. The regular season should only ever be the thing that teams use to qualify for the post season. It should never be used as a determining factor for anything other than that.

How awesome would it be if contracts worked like that? Your first couple of contracts based on how you’re expected to perform in the playoffs, and then all your other contracts based on how you actually performed in the playoffs. UFA eligibility should be lowered, allowing players to leave perpetually non-playoff teams earlier in favour of joining teams that actually do make the post season. Players would flock to stable, well-run organizations and stop targeting “warm climates” and/or “teams with extra cap space to give me” etc.

The player mindset would be, “Unless I play well in the payoffs, I’m not getting paid... which means two things: first, I need to play on a playoff team regardless of where the city is, and second, I need to be really good at playoff hockey.”

No more $8M regular season superstars eating up cap space only to disappear when it matters most. No more organizations surviving while floundering for decades stuck in their own little bubble of stupidity.

Pure, unadulterated capitalism at its finest.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Tkachuk = 6x6m tops.

Players only get paid during the regular season, but they should have to earn that pay during the playoffs. The regular season should only ever be the thing that teams use to qualify for the post season. It should never be used as a determining factor for anything other than that.

How awesome would it be if contracts worked like that? Your first couple of contracts based on how you’re expected to perform in the playoffs, and the all your other contracts based on how you actually performed in the playoffs. UFA eligibility should be lowered, allowing players to leave perpetually non-playoff teams earlier in favour of joining teams that actually do make the post season. Players flock to stable, well-run organizations and stop targeting “warm climates” and/or “teams with extra cap space to give me” etc.

The player mindset would be, “Unless I play well in the first payoffs, I’m not getting paid... which means two things: 1. I need to play on a playoff team regardless of where the city is, and 2. I need to be really good at playoff hockey.”

No more $8M regular season superstars eating up cap space only to disappear when it matters most. No more organizations surviving while floundering for decades stuck in their own little bubble of stupidity.

Pure, unadulterated capitalism at its finest.

That’s not capitalism, it’s indentured servitude where you get paid if it rains.

You want to pay people based on items almost entirely out of their control based on a faulty assumption that “heart” and “hating to lose” actually exist. The vast majority of players fit at the same point on this “heart” scale.

You just define heart based on the results. San Jose, overcame a 3-1 series deficit and a 3-0 deficit in game 7. Those players have heart

(Except all the other years when they choked, SAN Jose is a team that always chokes)

[FanIn80]

Making the playoffs isn’t luck. Winning the Cup is luck, but teams can not “luck their way into the playoffs” year after year.

Solid, well-managed organizations make the playoffs consistently year over year. Flakey ones make and miss depending and rely more on outside factors than the first group does. Perpetually stupid organizations consistently miss the playoffs regardless of external factors.

All I’m talking about is taking the same metrics GMs use to place value in players, but only apply those metrics to their playoff performances.

Agent: “Player A is worth $5m cause he puts up 25 goals a season.”
GM: “Ok, but he’s only scored once in 25 playoff games”
Agent: “Well no one’s perfect.”
GM: “Organizational success is based on playoff performance. I’m not giving someone $5m to disappear on me when I need him most.”
Agent: “Whoops. I just realized I’ve got the wrong number. I thought I was talking to Edmonton.”

[GGG]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Making the playoffs isn’t luck. Winning the Cup is luck, but teams can not “luck their way into the playoffs” year after year.

Solid, well-managed organizations make the playoffs consistently year over year. Flakey ones make and miss depending and rely more on outside factors than the first group does. Perpetually stupid organizations consistently miss the playoffs regardless of external factors.

All I’m talking about is taking the same metrics GMs use to place value in players, but only apply those metrics to their playoff performances.

Agent: “Player A is worth $5m cause he puts up 25 goals a season.”
GM: “Ok, but he’s only scored once in 25 playoff games”
Agent: “Well no one’s perfect.”
GM: “Organizational success is based on playoff performance. I’m not giving someone $5m to disappear on me when I need him most.”
Agent: “Whoops. I just realized I’ve got the wrong number. I thought I was talking to Edmonton.”

Small sample size means you would have a high variability between the actual performance of a player and the number of goals and assists scored.

Some really bad contracts are signed based on small sample size playoff results.

[FanIn80]

Fair point!

This isn’t some super well-thought-out manifesto I’ve been working on for 20 years. I was literally in a bad mood on the bus and commenting on the absurdity of paying people for their performance during one phase of their work, but really only caring about their performance during a completely separate phase of their work.

It’s like we’re paying them these multi-million dollar retainers based on their performance during a testing phase, and then just hoping that they’ll show up when we really need them to.

Or... it’s also possible I’m just being a dick.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Fair point!



This isn’t some super well-thought-out manifesto I’ve been working on for 20 years. p

No kidding, LOL.


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[bizaro86]

Tkachuk will get more than 6x6. I don't think his agent would have much trouble finding a GM to offer sheet him at 8.1MM x 5 years, so that's what I think he'll get from Tre.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Bouw N Arrow

Or we just tender an offer sheet.. so Keller can play with his childhood pal?

In order to have a successful offer sheet a team must tender an offer and the player must sign it. Now I'm not being cocky, not saying Tkachuk wouldn't sign an offer sheet with Phoenix just saying that it'd have to be a big offer for him to sign it.

Tkachuk seems to have a lot of childhood pals in the NHL, probably has some current adult pals on the Flames. Doubt that becomes a factor.

[Vinny01]

The way Tkachuk talked about the Matthews deal he is probably pushing for $8Mx5 years.