Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[flamesfever]

I was inspired by Kenney's speech last night. He is smart, hard working and with a little luck with the price of oil, should help to turn this province around. It included all I would have liked him to say, including not puting up with all the money coming into Canada from the US to stop pipelines, etc. I never knew he spoke french so well, and I also liked his pitch to Quebec.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Think the new Leader can change Legault's and his provinces mind?

Not unless Kenney can get support for changing equalization. If Moe and Ford back him on it - representing three of the five have provinces in the country and over 50% of the population - they won't have enough to force change in a constitutional sense, but they will have enough to put Trudeau and the feds on the hot seat.

Politically, that was a smart move by Kenney though. Reach out with an olive branch knowing they're just going to spit in your face. Makes it easier to garner local support for the inevitable battle over both Energy East and equalization.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

I agree that government debt is not the same as consumer or business debt. That is reflected inherently in the credit rating governments receive. So while governments can incur, and continue to incur substantial amounts of debt on a year over year basis, the long term ramifications can be far more severe.

As we saw in Europe with the Greeks, and other countries, once that debt level reaches a critical mass, suddenly it becomes a monumental, existential, crisis. Far beyond simply a single company declaring bankruptcy. Suddenly, our entire social system is jeopardized, our savings are at risk, and heaven forbid we are forced to default on our debt.....

Totally agree with all your points. The illustration of a closed system is to show that government debt has more benefits than just "paying interest to the banks, and an equivalent amount could've been spent on healthcare." There's definitely leakages in that model, just like there are issues with a zero debt model (check our property tax bills!).

I think your characterization that Notley's 4 years have put us into a Greece like situation where we have a monumental existential debt, or that we are anywhere near default is a bit hyperbolic. Our balance sheet is one of the best in North America even with Notley's 4 years. If we're defaulting on our debt, that means the entire continent is already defaulted and there'd be much bigger things to worry about.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Not unless Kenney can get support for changing equalization. If Moe and Ford back him on it - representing three of the five have provinces in the country and over 50% of the population - they won't have enough to force change in a constitutional sense, but they will have enough to put Trudeau and the feds on the hot seat.

Politically, that was a smart move by Kenney though. Reach out with an olive branch knowing they're just going to spit in your face. Makes it easier to garner local support for the inevitable battle over both Energy East and equalization.

Energy East is dead. With the new mainline tolls, the pipe that was going to be converted is already back in full gas service.

It'd have to be a brand new project to carry oil east, and I don't think any private company would be willing to take on that risk.

[Ashasx]

To know that my fellow Albertans chose the economy and jobs… and how that is more important than the life of myself and so many others. Thank you, Alberta, for showing me exactly who you are.

https://www.facebook.com/BTCityNewsC...1628115742197/

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Not unless Kenney can get support for changing equalization. If Moe and Ford back him on it - representing three of the five have provinces in the country and over 50% of the population - they won't have enough to force change in a constitutional sense, but they will have enough to put Trudeau and the feds on the hot seat.

Politically, that was a smart move by Kenney though. Reach out with an olive branch knowing they're just going to spit in your face. Makes it easier to garner local support for the inevitable battle over both Energy East and equalization.

Interesting take. I see it as Quebec - and likely BC as well - going to dig in their heels and become more firmly resolved in their positions. I doubt any additional provinces benefiting from the current equalization scheme will want to discuss this either. But to each their own.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Think the new Leader can change Legault's and his provinces mind?

As much as we like to say that its about Kenny convincing Legault, this should be Trudeau convincing Legault, again the transportation of goods across provincial borders in covered under the Federal Powers and is something that the Federal Government is supposed to enforce.



Justin should literally be saying to Legault, that's nice, I admire your fortitude but this pipeline is in the best interests of Canada and its economy, so its coming.


Kenny shouldn't even have to threaten equalization frankly, Trudeau has the ability to stop things like infrastructure transfers to Quebec.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Energy East is dead. With the new mainline tolls, the pipe that was going to be converted is already back in full gas service.

It'd have to be a brand new project to carry oil east, and I don't think any private company would be willing to take on that risk.

I agree with your point, and I doubt any private venture is all that fired up about spending a lot of money in Canada as long as there is the spector of Bills C-69, C-48 and a continued energy unfriendly feel from the Government.

[Ozy_Flame]

Trudeau isn't going to convince Legault on anything. My guess is that Trudeau isn't going to do anything at all until at least October, in which Albertans better hope Scheer gets elected and goes to bat for everything Alberta wants. I suspect though that Alberta's position over the next few months is going to strengthen Liberal and NDP support in both Quebec and BC at the federal level, even if Justin is a bozo.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by 4X4

I don't think people like the UCP as much as the polls show. It would take time, but if there was a true centerist option, not named the Liberals, and not vote splitting with the Liberals, and not so stupid as to push out their popular and competent leader and replacing him with a guy who's fricken 70, eventually they'd gain traction.

I bet that half of the people that voted yesterday did not vote for the party they liked, they voted against the party they don't like. I sure as hell didn't WANT to vote for UCP and that slimeball Kenney, but the AP really crapped the bed, and wasn't a viable option.

I think this will come down to do people want to live with a minority government? Because that's the only way I can see them making traction. But because of the NDP having Edmonton as a stronghold, it makes it hard for Calgary voters to truly back the AP because of fears they'll split and lead to an NDP government again, even as a minority government.

As far as Kenney, pretty much every one I know who voted UCP does not like him. They all voted PC in the last election and were happy to vote Prentice, but this time they just wanted anyone but NDP. Personally I would love to see political parties made illegal and force everyone to run as an independent representing their constituency first and not a party. But that's never happening.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

https://www.facebook.com/BTCityNewsC...1628115742197/

Kind of embarrassing for City to allow people on air to call the province racist while suggesting that their life is somehow in danger under a UCP government. Nice job feeding ammo to the right.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

https://www.facebook.com/BTCityNewsC...1628115742197/

What overheated garbage.

The suicide rate in Alberta spiked in 2015, despite the current rules surrounding GSA's. It has increased every year except 2016 post spike.

You know who are huge part of the people choosing to end their life? People without jobs and seeing their families fall apart. People without a place to sleep because they can't pay rent. People turning to substances to try and overcome the pain of a lack of income and loss of self-worth. The economy touches all of us.

We can support minorities and have a strong economy. Overall, the utility of a UCP government is clearly more overreaching than the NDP.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Interesting take. I see it as Quebec - and likely BC as well - going to dig in their heels and become more firmly resolved in their positions. I doubt any additional provinces benefiting from the current equalization scheme will want to discuss this either. But to each their own.

Of course Quebec is going to dig in its heels. It has no reason to do anything as long as the feds are siphoning money from the west into its pocket. BC idigging in its heels actually stands as an argument against rep by pop: Three Green Party MLAs are holding an entire province - and by extension the country - hostage.

As far as what the have not provinces beyond Quebec thinks, they are too small to matter much. Of course, Alberta alone won't matter either, so it comes down to allying up with Ontario.

[CaptainCrunch]

Yeah, it was over the top.



Also, don't chew fracking gum in an interview, its one of my pet peeves.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

As far as what the have not provinces beyond Quebec thinks, they are too small to matter much. Of course, Alberta alone won't matter either, so it comes down to allying up with Ontario.

What good is allying with Ontario going to do on any fronts without Scheer bridging the gap though? We have emotional support from DoFo, but we still can't do any constitutional challenges. We need 7 provinces on board. You could probably get Saskatchewan and Newfoundland on board, after that it gets dicey.

There is just no scenario where I see any constitutional change being made, unless everyone comes out better on a constitutional change, but when it's a distribution of money, there's never a winner; it's zero sum, this is not a business deal where both sides make money.

I also see a reinvigorated front against Alberta and Ontario's message at the federal level in multiple provinces; all that has to happen is the media keep putting Kenney and Ford in the spotlight as antagonizing factors.

I think by year 2 of the Kenney era we're going to see how futile this effort really is.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I was inspired by Kenney's speech last night. He is smart, hard working and with a little luck with the price of oil, should help to turn this province around. It included all I would have liked him to say, including not puting up with all the money coming into Canada from the US to stop pipelines, etc. I never knew he spoke french so well, and I also liked his pitch to Quebec.

Let's face it: that is more or less the whole trick right there. If the global price of oil recovers, the UCP will be hailed as heroes. If it flounders, we're likely looking at more sweeping changes in four years.

[burn_this_city]

That panel was terrible, two leftist ideologues who don't have a clue about the economy. Keep running on your wedge issues and you'll keep losing.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Define "boosting".

We have been promised "jobs". So if we come out in four years with a net of say, 1000 jobs, are we really in a better spot?

Define "economy". Does this mean we have more spending power per capita? More investment?

Define "pipelines". Is Kenney going to take credit for TMX and Line 3? Or more?

"Job, economy, and pipelines" is a dangerously populist quip. I'd like to see the benchmarks he hopes to achieve.

I will at least expect him to put together a budget to start.

Something Notley couldn't even bother to do as part of her election platform while in government.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Also, don't chew fracking gum in an interview, its one of my pet peeves.

Better or worse than the bow tie / jacket / vans slip ons combo? It's a tough call.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Totally agree with all your points. The illustration of a closed system is to show that government debt has more benefits than just "paying interest to the banks, and an equivalent amount could've been spent on healthcare." There's definitely leakages in that model, just like there are issues with a zero debt model (check our property tax bills!).

I think your characterization that Notley's 4 years have put us into a Greece like situation where we have a monumental existential debt, or that we are anywhere near default is a bit hyperbolic. Our balance sheet is one of the best in North America even with Notley's 4 years. If we're defaulting on our debt, that means the entire continent is already defaulted and there'd be much bigger things to worry about.

I'm not saying we are anywhere near Greek levels of debt. Far from it.

Merely using them as the example of what to expect with a run-away debt scenario that continues for a long period of time, since they are one of the more recent jurisdictions to have to deal with the fall out.

Ultimately, I think a prudent usage of debt, be it provincially, or at a corporate level, is a good thing. It can help maximize your returns if used correctly.

But when Alberta needs debt to cover off 25% of our operating expenses, that's a really big structural and systemic issue.

Prudent use of debt? Absolutely.

Borrowing to keep the lights on? Irresponsible.