Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Go ahead and tell me exactly how devastating government debt is to an economy. The US has one of the highest debts in the entire world. Every EU country is in debt including the vaunted Norway. Japan is in debt, Australia is in debt and so forth.

Show me how much you understand about it since the NDP clearly doesn't.

Uuuuummm

You do know that the more debt a province has the more you pay in interest and debt servicing right? The interest payments are billions of dollars that could be used on healthcare or education or infrastructure in a province.

Surely you know that when a provinces interest payments are high, the only winners are the banks?

You do know that every time a provinces debt increases our credit rating drops and our interest rate payments to the banks increase?

Surely you know that right?

[4X4]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So thinking about the Alberta Party more, and while I understand people wishing they would be the opposition party, aren't they pretty much capped as a regional party? Edmonton is NDP country and as last night showed that won't change much, even when they are way down as a party. Rural areas will always be safely UCP. So that leaves Calgary, which is also pretty safely UCP. I also think a lot of AP support in this election is based on the hope they can be not Kenney/NDP. At some point, you gotta be more than just the least worst option. I also think choosing Mandel was about maybe making inroads in Edmonton, but that clearly didn't matter.

Would Greg Clark have made any difference? Sure, I guess maybe as the face of the party he could have held his own seat with more profile. But they really are basically capped at I would guess 10-15 seats at best. And there's probably no way that will change unless the UCP really falls apart. Doesn't seem like a good long term strategy.

I don't think people like the UCP as much as the polls show. It would take time, but if there was a true centerist option, not named the Liberals, and not vote splitting with the Liberals, and not so stupid as to push out their popular and competent leader and replacing him with a guy who's fricken 70, eventually they'd gain traction.

I bet that half of the people that voted yesterday did not vote for the party they liked, they voted against the party they don't like. I sure as hell didn't WANT to vote for UCP and that slimeball Kenney, but the AP really crapped the bed, and wasn't a viable option.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So thinking about the Alberta Party more, and while I understand people wishing they would be the opposition party, aren't they pretty much capped as a regional party? Edmonton is NDP country and as last night showed that won't change much, even when they are way down as a party. Rural areas will always be safely UCP. So that leaves Calgary, which is also pretty safely UCP. I also think a lot of AP support in this election is based on the hope they can be not Kenney/NDP. At some point, you gotta be more than just the least worst option. I also think choosing Mandel was about maybe making inroads in Edmonton, but that clearly didn't matter.

Would Greg Clark have made any difference? Sure, I guess maybe as the face of the party he could have held his own seat with more profile. But they really are basically capped at I would guess 10-15 seats at best. And there's probably no way that will change unless the UCP really falls apart. Doesn't seem like a good long term strategy.

I'm kind of on your side on this, however, I think if we were going to categorize this election for the Alberta Party it would be "Fumble, ball lost"


I was honestly surprised because I went off of this board in a lot of ways and the number of posters that stated that they were voting Alberta Party. I was surprised at Greg Clark's loss of his seat and finishing in third.


They basically have lost all momentum that they had in losing their seat, and that can probably be laid at the scuffed shoes of Mandel and the party executive. I don't know if they went into this election with an arrogant expectation that they would siphon off votes from both parties, but I feel like they got left far behind strategically. This was a bad campaign, a uninspiring leader, and they were a whisper in the wind that wasn't heard.



This morning they can't look around and chuckle and say "At least we're not the Liberals"


0 seats is 0 seats.


Its a tough rebuild. They need to find a better leader. They need to get on the phone and fund raise like crazy, and without a seat in the house they can focus on a 4 year strategy review.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Heh it's still something.

Well see. It's a classic argument. How do you stimulate a stale economy? More stimulus or less regulation.

I like to think the oil price roller coaster is what changes the momentum and we have no control over that despite if our provincial government wants to put wing flaps or speed holes on the train.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I like to think the oil price roller coaster is what changes the momentum and we have no control over that despite if our provincial government wants to put wing flaps or speed holes on the train.

That is true. But we have to fight to get the oil out regardless of its price fluctuations.

I'm more interested to see if Alberta can diversify out of its reliance on oil. Maybe in technology.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Uuuuummm

You do know that the more debt a province has the more you pay in interest and debt servicing right? The interest payments are billions of dollars that could be used on healthcare or education or infrastructure in a province.

Surely you know that when a provinces interest payments are high, the only winners are the banks?

You do know that every time a provinces debt increases our credit rating drops and our interest rate payments to the banks increase?

Surely you know that right?

Yes, where do you think the interest payments go other than some nebulous evil "banks"? What does ATB do with the interest that the Government of Alberta gives them?

They hire more people. They expand. They invest in start-ups and give loans to ordinary citizens, which all contribute back to the Government of Alberta in the form of a better economy.

Debt servicing as an individual is not good because you don't get to reap the economic benefits of your bank investing your interest/fees, a government is completely different.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I'm more interested to see if Alberta can diversify out of its reliance on oil. Maybe in technology.

Careful, that's a dirty word around here to some. Apparently we are already "diversified" despite how shifting back to building pipelines as the reason for our provincial existence.

Kenney did throw it in at the end of his diatribe though. "Diversify the economy!" Not sure how he plans to accomplish that though. Hope he can sit down with community leaders and economists and figure out a long-term plan to get us off the oil train (oh wait, he's going to cancel the train contracts - another win! )

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Careful, that's a dirty word around here to some. Apparently we are already "diversified" despite how shifting back to building pipelines as the reason for our provincial existence.

Kenney did throw it in at the end of his diatribe though. "Diversify the economy!" Not sure how he plans to accomplish that though. Hope he can sit down with community leaders and economists and figure out a long-term plan to get us off the oil train (oh wait, he's going to cancel the train contracts - another win! )

Take a few days off from this thread bro.

[Ozy_Flame]

Also, just have to joke about the sob story yesterday about the 17 year-old supporting his family. Isn't he going to earn less for his family now when Kenney rolls back his wages because of his age?

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

FPTP is the real problem here. AP got what, 10% of the vote? They should have 10% of the seats. But that's not how the system works nor will it work. FPTP really serves to benefit the current government.

It bothers me if someone can't win a majority in their riding but yet still get the seat. Should have run-off elections to ensure majority of people confirm their support.

For example, Doug Schweitzer represents Calgary-Elbow with 44% of the vote, but the majority of people didn't vote for him.

I agree with you on the bolded. I wish there was proportional representation.
I don't like the fact that 10% of the votes cast were for the AP and they get nothing to show for it.
those 150,000 votes deserve a voice.

also, I ready that voter turnout could be as high as 65%.
I admit that shocks me as I thought people would stay home as a UCP majority was assured.

if that number is true. good on you, Albertans.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I agree with you on the bolded. I wish there was proportional representation.
I don't like the fact that 10% of the votes cast were for the AP and they get nothing to show for it.
those 150,000 votes deserve a voice.

This is why I don't see 0 seats as necessarily a problem on the AP's part; it is a problem with the type of democracy we have.

The AP increased their popular vote share significantly in this election.

150k is essentially a population base the size of Lethbridge and Medicine Hat combined with absolutely no voice.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Also, just have to joke about the sob story yesterday about the 17 year-old supporting his family. Isn't he going to earn less for his family now when Kenney rolls back his wages because of his age?

Well he is 20 now, so probably not. Unless there is a time vortex/worm hole up in Hardesty.

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1118528085484298240

[Resolute 14]

The whole "no voice" argument is just pants on head stupid.

People who voted for them - including myself - have a voice. We exercised it yesterday. And believe it or not, our local MLAs do, in fact, represent us. Far more so than rep by pop would, where nobody has an actual MLA to represent them.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The whole "no voice" argument is just pants on head stupid.

People who voted for them - including myself - have a voice. We exercised it yesterday. And believe it or not, our local MLAs do, in fact, represent us. Far more so than rep by pop would, where nobody has an actual MLA to represent them.

That's a matter of opinion. FPTP doesn't allow people to be represented even with casting a vote.

We look at seat count so intensely as part of our democratic process, but the popular vote isn't represented. If it was, we would have had the UCP with 20 less seats and far more balanced Legislature this morning.

The person elected in my riding doesn't represent me, I can tell you that right now.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

FPTP is the real problem here. AP got what, 10% of the vote? They should have 10% of the seats. But that's not how the system works nor will it work. FPTP really serves to benefit the current government.

It bothers me if someone can't win a majority in their riding but yet still get the seat. Should have run-off elections to ensure majority of people confirm their support.

For example, Doug Schweitzer represents Calgary-Elbow with 44% of the vote, but the majority of people didn't vote for him.

Like clockwork. PR is the perennial argument of the parties that fail to capture seats.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

https://twitter.com/user/status/1118528085484298240

54 seconds of pleasantries, and 4 seconds of reality check about our chances of working with Quebec for new oil pipelines

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Yes, where do you think the interest payments go other than some nebulous evil "banks"? What does ATB do with the interest that the Government of Alberta gives them?

They hire more people. They expand. They invest in start-ups and give loans to ordinary citizens, which all contribute back to the Government of Alberta in the form of a better economy.

Debt servicing as an individual is not good because you don't get to reap the economic benefits of your bank investing your interest/fees, a government is completely different.

In a closed system, I don't completely disagree, but I do think you are oversimplifying and down playing the volume of debt we have been incurring.

The fact is, we are not in a closed system. We used to issue very little debt, and when we did, institutional interest in Canada was sufficient to fill the orders, so to speak.

However, due to the sheer volume of debt we have taken on as a province in the last four years, Alberta is no longer able to simply rely on Canadian investors to take our debt. We have been forced to travel globally to find investors.

That interest payment now goes outside of the system, benefiting none of us.

I agree that government debt is not the same as consumer or business debt. That is reflected inherently in the credit rating governments receive. So while governments can incur, and continue to incur substantial amounts of debt on a year over year basis, the long term ramifications can be far more severe.

As we saw in Europe with the Greeks, and other countries, once that debt level reaches a critical mass, suddenly it becomes a monumental, existential, crisis. Far beyond simply a single company declaring bankruptcy. Suddenly, our entire social system is jeopardized, our savings are at risk, and heaven forbid we are forced to default on our debt.....

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

54 seconds of pleasantries, and 4 seconds of reality check about our chances of working with Quebec for new oil pipelines

No surprise there. Quebec is the living embodiment of "screw you, I'll take yours". They're going to oppose it so long as billions of our dollars goes to support them as a welfare case.

[Ozy_Flame]

Think the new Leader can change Legault's and his provinces mind?