Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[Ducay]

Anyone considering voting NDP should read the below article re:impact on oil & gas and Alberta's economy.

Its obviously a one sided take, but it highlights the real damage (active and collateral) that the NDP did during the first 2 years of their rule - before they magically did a 180 on the industry and realized they needed to get reelected. Too little, too late.

https://boereport.com/2019/04/15/alb...under-the-ndp/

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Actually the AP is hoping to take votes from both sides, and appeal to the voters who classify as moderates and centrists. Siphoning votes from both sides leads to a more likely minority government situation, where the AP, knowing will not have governing or Opposition status, can hold the balance of power.

This election was never intended be won by the AP, but rather gain exposure and position themselves as the check and balance on two spectrum parties.

The fact that these letters are going to (Mountain View, Edgemont) are likely great news for the AP war room.

Of course that's the plan, but the reality is that they aren't considered strong enough to actually win the ridings so "soft" supporters or people who are definitely going to want to keep the NDP/UCP out as opposed to giving the AP a pat on the back are more likely to hold their nose and vote in that manner.

I think that you're delusional in talking about a minority government or balance of power situation. I mean the polls could be wrong, but how likely are they to be wrong by like 15-20 AP seats? Regardless of the poll, every single one shows that the UCP is set for a majority. If there's a minority it would be a last minute spike in NDP votes where all the close seats go their way. Not only is that unlikely, but I think that looking at Cowboy89's posts earlier in this thread show how difficult a road that is for the NDP.

Truthfully, the best case scenario for the AP is good showing as the one 3rd party, a seat or two and maybe the Liberals holding on for one seat. Whether the Liberals win a seat or not, those two merge and the centrists have a chance at (a) official party status and (b) live to fight another day.

[nik-]

AP probably shouldn't have done that ridiculous leadership change.

Stupid move.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by nik-

AP probably shouldn't have done that ridiculous leadership change.

Stupid move.

Which says a lot about them overall.

"AP: A Stupid Move."

[Ozy_Flame]

To each their own, friends! I agree Clark would have been better to keep, but the AP is on the up and up, and they'll build an even bigger profile over the next election cycle.

[Locke]

Sorry, I should apologize, thats not fair to the AB party. The leadership change was unwise and the timing couldnt have been worse, but they have a decent platform.

They're a young party, they need time and they probably shouldnt have swapped to a leader who is so old that he practically needs a wheelchair.

[nik-]

If they get a better leader. Maybe they should try Greg Clark.

[Robbob]

That was the puzzling thing for me. Didn't understand why they didn't go with what got them there.

[Ozy_Flame]

Just a reminder, Mandel was elected in, not placed. It was a race between Mandel, Levis, and Fraser. I suspect the next leadership race may have more/different candidates.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

good post. I agree that the AP takes votes from both parties, and that's part of their (AP) problem. As voters make their way in and think "I don't want to have the NDP/UCP in power" they will also not want to split that vote. It's anecdotal of course, but there are a lot of voters who see this as the one time in four years to get rid of the NDP, so they're less likely to risk splitting that anti-NDP vote around and having an NDP candidate win.

Some of those projections are interesting. A couple ridings that they have as "toss-up" are surprising. Mountainview strikes me as pretty solidly NDP, and I'm a little surprised about Varsity as leaning NDP. Calgary Currie is another interesting case.

That's the real trouble with voting AP if one is being strategic about it, because without specialized riding by riding polling knowledge it's hard to know how a vote for the AP impacts the overall election. Again if the NDP or UCP outcome matters more to a voter than beefing up AP's raw vote then strategically they should vote their preference for government between the two front-running parties.

Mountain-view is interesting because it's a 3-4 way race. I think it's a riding that could be classified as being 60-70% 'progressive' but it could end up UCP because the Liberals, AP, and NDP are splitting all that vote. And yes in Calgary Currie it looks like an AP vote is helping the UCP, but in Calgary Varsity the AP vote is helping the NDP.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

To each their own, friends! I agree Clark would have been better to keep, but the AP is on the up and up, and they'll build an even bigger profile over the next election cycle.

I agree, but probably because the NDP is likely to go into "alberta liberal" status.

[Jacks]

Alberta Liberals down to 1% in the newest poll, what a complete failure by that party. If they had rebranded themselves 20 years ago they would have formed government by now. It would be nice to have had a moderate and somewhat fiscally responsible alternative when the time came to turf the old PC Party but they had already mostly imploded at that point. Now we have the choice of too may social conservatives or a party that is a complete fiscal nightmare, nice choice.

[CliffFletcher]

Even if the Alberta Party only takes 2 or 3 seats, destroying the Liberals as a legitimate party in this province would be a strategic win long term. They can position themselves in future elections as the only centrist option, and attract all the centrist candidates, fundraising, etc.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Quote is from a parody Bill Murray account, but hey why not add to your post count.

Just voted for Jason Kenney this morning at 6am at the U of C!
Strong and Free! and then more Strong! My new ring tone.

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Alberta Liberals down to 1% in the newest poll, what a complete failure by that party. If they had rebranded themselves 20 years ago they would have formed government by now.

No, they would be at 1% with a different name. People clearly do not want to vote for them.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by chubeyr1

GST was put in place to kill our debt too across Canada. How has that worked out? Should it of worked? Absolutely! Yet it gives a government more tax dollars to spend.

I am fine with a sales tax that pays off debt. It should be used to pay off debt only. Excess funds go into the heritage fund. Yet that wont happen!

Carbon tax? How has that worked out? Epic failure!

Soon there will be a tax on eating fast food too. Government will screw this up too.

We need less government not more!

Nominally the GST was put in place to replace a hidden 13.5% tax on manufactured items and make our industry more competitive. It had little to do with debt IIRC.

Carbon tax - ask BC how it's worked out for them. Seems to be some argument it has been successful but it's implementation was also slightly different than what Alberta did.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

So here's a question. On the morning of April 10, before the NHL Playoffs opened, what would you have given better odds to: the NDP winning this election, or the Lightning getting swept?

I wish I could go back in time and have a poll.

Speaking of polls, it's election eve... is it time for a new one? Say, "If you voted in advance, who'd you vote for, and if you didn't, who will you vote for", with each party plus "Spoil my ballot" plus "staying home" as options. Leave out the meteorite answer this time.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Alberta is not a cost friendly environment for businesses. Wages are still high compared to the rest of the country. Housing is far from cheap. Commercial real estate is the only draw right now. Everyone outside the oil industry considering setting up in Calgary knows they are one oil boom away from getting destroyed by ballooning costs. Letting the industry stagnate is the quickest path to diversification. Like I said before, we made great strides in the 90s and it largely got wiped out by the next oil boom in the 2000s.

Oh whatever. Jesus people really have no idea how things are like in the rest of the country.

Here's my take: If fossil fuels really are going as quickly as people think they are, then the federal Liberals should just say so. They should have let TM2 die.

The Alberta NDP had four goddamned years to say "yup, all of you in the O&G industry should try to find other jobs."

The goddamned BC coalition should have said two years ago "yup, we're turning off TM by X date."

But no. That's not what happened, nor what's happening.

No, Vancouver is not going carbon free by 2030. What a load of crap.

Christ, you might as well believe every politician's goddamned claim that they're going to end poverty.

Stop thinking the politicians you like are telling the truth.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by nik-

AP probably shouldn't have done that ridiculous leadership change.

I agree with this, in the sense that I much prefer Greg Clark as a politician and a leader. However, I actually wonder if the change was done not because Mandel is a better leader or likely to garner more support himself, but because he could actually garner considerably more money from donors owing to his contacts. I suspect that had a lot to do with the decision.

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Just a reminder, Mandel was elected in, not placed. It was a race between Mandel, Levis, and Fraser. I suspect the next leadership race may have more/different candidates.

This isn't really fair, though. I was in a meeting with Mandel with a few colleagues from work talking about the AP's chances in the election, and this was right in the middle of the leadership "race". I asked him about the other candidates and how his views differed from theirs, why he'd be a better leader. His response was effectively, "look, these people are great candidates for us and I respect them, but they aren't realistically going to be the leader of the party. I can raise far more money than them, I have far more experience than them". It was, in his mind (and he was remarkably frank throughout the meeting, to his credit) a fait accompli that he was going to be the new leader. The "race" was pretty much just for show. Which is part of why I believe the above: the powers that be who made the decision about Clark being out and Mandel being in were thinking about fundraising as their primary concern.

Hard to say whether or not that was a bad decision in the end - maybe the AP would have polled better in this election with Clark as leader, but maybe they wouldn't have the juice they do. I see a lot of AP signs out there, I've heard a lot of AP talk, the word's gotten out much better than it did in 2015. Who knows how much of that to attribute to their bank account. I don't know if those sorts of numbers are public or not, but I'd be interested to see them.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Oh whatever. Jesus people really have no idea how things are like in the rest of the country.

Here's my take: If fossil fuels really are going as quickly as people think they are, then the federal Liberals should just say so. They should have let TM2 die.

The Alberta NDP had four goddamned years to say "yup, all of you in the O&G industry should try to find other jobs."

The goddamned BC coalition should have said two years ago "yup, we're turning off TM by X date."

But no. That's not what happened, nor what's happening.

No, Vancouver is not going carbon free by 2030. What a load of crap.

Christ, you might as well believe every politician's goddamned claim that they're going to end poverty.

Stop thinking the politicians you like are telling the truth.

That's an odd take.

So you think voting in a hardline Conservative party with regressive social policies is going to win national favour and get some pipe in the ground?

If not, how do you get the pipelines in? It seems at the provincial level, a lot has been tried, with minimal success.

If this isn't something that can get solved at the provincial level, maybe it would be prudent to start planning like it can't be solved.