Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Here is the latest from the CBC and Grenier:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/

99% probability of UCP winning the most seats. Damage control time for the NDP.

I wouldn't count it as a done deal. This looks a lot like the 2012 election campaign where the campaign was basically a Wildrose coronation. The 'lake of fire' comment was uttered, time passed, the Wildrose showed a little bit of give back in the polls but still looked poised to win a huge majority. The only sign that things were going to break back to a Redford victory was a tighter poll released one day prior to the election (That's still an eternity from now).

Not once during the campaign did any polls show the Wildrose with anything but a majority share of the support. Thus far we're matching that timeline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_A...neral_election

That all said, I think there's numerous factors on why this time might be different:

-The rural advantage of the UCP (basically there's 37 ridings the NDP don't have a chance in any realistic scenario of taking)
-The fact that the economy is the #1 issue by a wide margin this election rather than in the middle of an oil boom ala 2012
-The fact the such polling failures like 2012 have resulted in different polling techniques to be deployed in the field

[Nufy]

A minority govt will last less than a year here in AB.

then we get to do it all over again.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Smith didn’t apologize he said sorry if I offended you. That’s not an apology.

That's enough for koolaid guzzlers though.

The Lake of Fire is coming!!!

[Ozy_Flame]

Fraudulent emails used to cast votes in UCP leadership race, CBC finds

Many of the suspect domains trace back to a hosting service and are linked to a network of ever-changing websites and domains, including Torytracker.com, Bellwebmail.com, Mail.deanfrench.ca and many more.

It is not known who purchased those domains.

As previously reported, the suspect email addresses attached to members were all purchased in the days leading up to the UCP leadership vote on Oct. 28, 2017. None of the emails are currently in service.

Cross-referencing two of the party lists obtained by CBC News shows the vast majority of the fraudulent emails were attached to memberships between Oct. 3 and Oct. 24, 2017.

It is not known how widespread the practice is outside of the selected sample, and there could be more fraudulent emails with valid domains like Gmail or Hotmail.

CBC News contacted a dozen people with suspect emails attached to their memberships who confirmed they did not vote in the leadership race, and who said their emails were different from the ones on the list.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

-The fact the such polling failures like 2012 have resulted in different polling techniques to be deployed in the field

There was no failure. There was a poll done on the weekend that showed the PCs with the lead. I was at an event with Sandra Jansen and she had a huge #### eating grin on her face because she had just learned about the numbers.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

There is also nothing wrong with the UCP forming a minority government; this would probably make them more responsive to all Albertans. Voting for the AP, NDP, or any other party helps accomplish that.

This isn't a realistic strategic voting option for anyone outside of 2 Calgary ridings: Calgary Mountain View & Calgary Elbow.

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/calgary.htm

In all other ridings switching your vote from NDP to Alberta Party is increasing the probability of a UCP majority government and a vote from UCP to Alberta party is increasing the probability of a NDP majority government. If the outcome of the election matters for you more in either direction, than that's how to vote.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

There is also nothing wrong with the UCP forming a minority government; this would probably make them more responsive to all Albertans. Voting for the AP, NDP, or any other party helps accomplish that.

Why do you presume that the AP would prop up the UCP rather than the NDP?
We could end up with a BC government 2.0, no thanks.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by troutman

I doubt the NDP believes privately in their hearts that the UCP won't win a big majority of seats. They are building for future elections.

If the NDP lose it wouldn’t surprise me if Notley started a new provincial party

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Shazam

There was no failure. There was a poll done on the weekend that showed the PCs with the lead. I was at an event with Sandra Jansen and she had a huge #### eating grin on her face because she had just learned about the numbers.

That was still inside of a few days of the election. My point is six days is still forever and only now have we seen polls start to move.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

That was still inside of a few days of the election. My point is six days is still forever and only now have we seen polls start to move.

Absolutely. But we rarely get to hear about the "last" poll, for whatever reason.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

If the NDP lose it wouldn’t surprise me if Notley started a new provincial party

Well she is calling for the small c conservatives to jump aboard.

LOL

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley is urging small-c conservatives to come on board because they share core values with her party and not Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives.

https://www.660citynews.com/2019/04/...ck-minorities/

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Well she is calling for the small c conservatives to jump aboard.

LOL



https://www.660citynews.com/2019/04/...ck-minorities/

cDP?

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

CBC News contacted a dozen people with suspect emails attached to their memberships who confirmed they did not vote in the leadership race, and who said their emails were different from the ones on the list.[/I]

Hypothetically, what would happen if Kenney won and was later found to be part of the voter fraud? Is that a serious enough charge to get him ousted?

I'm not sure how leadership votes within a party compare to, say, "normal" election fraud.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Fraudulent emails used to cast votes in UCP leadership race, CBC finds

Many of the suspect domains trace back to a hosting service and are linked to a network of ever-changing websites and domains, including Torytracker.com, Bellwebmail.com, Mail.deanfrench.ca and many more.

It is not known who purchased those domains.

As previously reported, the suspect email addresses attached to members were all purchased in the days leading up to the UCP leadership vote on Oct. 28, 2017. None of the emails are currently in service.

Cross-referencing two of the party lists obtained by CBC News shows the vast majority of the fraudulent emails were attached to memberships between Oct. 3 and Oct. 24, 2017.

It is not known how widespread the practice is outside of the selected sample, and there could be more fraudulent emails with valid domains like Gmail or Hotmail.

CBC News contacted a dozen people with suspect emails attached to their memberships who confirmed they did not vote in the leadership race, and who said their emails were different from the ones on the list.

This thread doesn't seem too interested in it, but this news article is... nuts.

RCMP are visiting voters, asking questions about voter fraud. Not the election commissioner, but the actual police.

References idea that votes are done without people knowing, or their email address is changed or made up but still connected to them.

That family's story, as an example, is ...crazy.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

Hypothetically, what would happen if Kenney won and was later found to be part of the voter fraud? Is that a serious enough charge to get him ousted?

I'm not sure how leadership votes within a party compare to, say, "normal" election fraud.

I don't know , but that CBC story references the RCMP questioning people. So I imagine it's taken with the same amount of legal seriousness?

[Izzle]

PressProgress might be a 'rag', but they had this news out late yesterday.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

This thread doesn't seem too interested in it, but this news article is... nuts.

RCMP are visiting voters, asking questions about voter fraud. Not the election commissioner, but the actual police.

References idea that votes are done without people knowing, or their email address is changed or made up but still connected to them.

That family's story, as an example, is ...crazy.

RCMP investigations, endemic bigotry, and false promises everywhere.

You future leader and majority government, ladies and gentlemen.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Well she is calling for the small c conservatives to jump aboard.

LOL

I hear the Oilers are looking for teams to hand over draft picks to them. You know, just because.

NG

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/calgary.htm

Lol, Edmonton=NG as always.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

You didn't want to vote for the candidate you liked? Was the UCP candidate better in your opinion?

This province is was long overdue for a competitive two-party election scenario, which I believe we now have. However, a "middle ground" option creates even more opportunity for voters and presses the other parties to be sharper and more in tune with Albertans.

There is also nothing wrong with the UCP forming a minority government; this would probably make them more responsive to all Albertans. Voting for the AP, NDP, or any other party helps accomplish that.

If there was only one vote in my riding and it was mine I would have voted for the Alberta Party candidate. I don't have any issue with the UCP candidate, and don't mind voting for him.

My suburban riding was NDP last election, but I got redistricted into a UCP riding. The effective choice here is UCP vs NDP. I very strongly prefer the UCP to the NDP, so voting strategically absolutely makes sense.