Preferred Playoff Opponent *NEW POLL! (Updated 29 March)

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

If you take a 50/50 approach - 4 consecutive outcomes would have to go one particular way for us to end up not playing colorado.

.50 x .50 x .50 x .50 = 0.0625, in other words a 93.75% chance.

When you take in to account the fact that only a single point lost by colorado, or a single point gained by Dallas would also lock in the outcome - yes, 96% was completely accurate.

Thank you...much more concise than I wrote it and your math doesn't even account for the ot/so point that puts Dallas in.

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Thank you...much more concise than I wrote it and your math doesn't even account for the ot/so point that puts Dallas in.

Only difference now is one of the outcomes is complete so it changes slightly.

So we are down to 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 87.5% chance factoring in only regulation outcomes. OT outcomes probably bump that closer to 90%.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by looooob

I'm not sure I'm reading his work properly but looks like on the math side its likely goaltending or similar skewing it but has Dallas as the favorite (albeit marginally) in the conference?

Yup, in order of %
Dallas 18%
Vegas
Sharks and Jets
Nash and Col
Blues and Flames 8%

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Yup, in order of %
Dallas 18%
Vegas
Sharks and Jets
Nash and Col
Blues and Flames 8%

I still think a lot of his numbers are skewed by jockeying of position between teams for playoff seeding. Dallas is more than 90% certain to be the #1 wildcard, while there is still a pretty even split for the Central Division winner, which as a result dramatically lowers each of St Louis, Nashville and Winnipeg's first round percentages, since they have to share the remaining 48% in his chart.

In any event, it's a weird chart.

[868904]

The Flames record versus the Stars in the regular season means nothing.

The Flames record versus the Avs in the regular season means nothing.

There is no point in hoping for one opponent over the other. Both will be tough match ups for the Flames because this is the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The only logical and real reason to hope for the Avs, is because the travel will be less and there won't be a time zone change. That might have an effect long term if the Flames can get by the first two rounds.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by 868904

The Flames record versus the Stars in the regular season means nothing.

The Flames record versus the Avs in the regular season means nothing.

There is no point in hoping for one opponent over the other. Both will be tough match ups for the Flames because this is the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The only logical and real reason to hope for the Avs, is because the travel will be less and there won't be a time zone change. That might have an effect long term if the Flames can get by the first two rounds.

Well, that is not the ONLY logical reason to prefer facing off against Colorado in the first round. Another perfectly logical reason to like this matchup is because of Calgary's superior depth, their excellent home-ice record and their dominance on the road.

[AC]

Don't worry everyone, apparently we have no chance of doing any damage as the #1 team in the west anyways:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1114196748778348544

Both picked Calgary as 7th of 8 to win the west?!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by AC

Don't worry everyone, apparently we have no chance of doing any damage as the #1 team in the west anyways:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1114196748778348544

Both picked Calgary as 7th of 8 to win the west?!

Mike Rupp picked the Flames because of questions about goaltending, playoff inexperience, and lack of size. Weekes is also not convinced about the Flames's goaltending, but he additionally thinks that they lack depth scoring(?!)...

Hilarious.

[EldrickOnIce]

If anyone knows a thing or two about bad NHL goaltending, it's Weekes.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Mike Rupp picked the Flames because of questions about goaltending, playoff inexperience, and lack of size. Weekes is also not convinced about the Flames's goaltending, but he additionally thinks that they lack depth scoring(?!)...

Hilarious.

I'm actually a natural pessimist this time of year, but it is hard to believe a team could be 2nd in the NHL, 50 wins, +64 goal differential despite having almost no redeeming features- small, weak, no depth, inexperienced and poor goaltending- hell you can probably find nicer things to say about Ottawa, Vancouver and Edmonton!

[KipperFaNaTic]

Hilarious. We have won because of our depth. For the last third of the season our first line was mostly not producing. Ryan, Jankowski, Mangiapane, Frolik, Hathaway have all contributed point-wise.

[Mattman]

Goooood goooood..... Keep underestimating the Flames.... You will see

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Mattman

Goooood goooood..... Keep underestimating the Flames.... You will see

The best is when people will go "OMG! This is crazy! Who saw this coming!?!?!"

Uhm, anyone paying attention, that's who saw it coming

[GreenLantern2814]

I don't think the Flames have ever played Colorado in a playoff series, have they?

I'd like to see that.

[420since1974]

Vegas NHL Future Odds for the Calgary Flames:

Odds to win Western Conference Final = 17/4.
Odds to win Stanley Cup = 12/1.

[420since1974]

NHL Stanley Cup Odds - Betting Power Rankings:
Calgary Flames = +750.
https://www.gambling.com/ca/online-b...nkings-1690900

[Classic_Sniper]

With the playoffs starting next week, I thought it'd be a good idea to look at how the Flames stack up with the rest of the league in regards to straight 5 on 5 regulation wins since shootouts and 3 on 3 overtime don't exist in the post season.

So I took the total wins of every current playoff team and subtracted their shootout and OT wins and then ranked them based on their 5 on 5 regulation win totals. From the final results actually look quite favorable for the Flames especially against Tampa who has a considerably higher overall win total over the Flames, but not so much with the 5 on 5 regulation win totals which actually are more comparable to that of the playoffs.



Total Wins vs Regulation Wins:


1. Tampa Bay: 61 -------------> 48
2. Calgary: 50 ----------------> 45
3. Toronto: 46 ---------------> 40
4. Washington: 48 ----------> 39
5. Boston: 49 -------------- > 38
6. Carolina: 45 -------------> 38
7. Nashville: 46 ------------>37
8. Winnipeg: 46 -----------> 37
9. San Jose: 45 -----------> 37
10. Pittsburgh: 44 --------> 37
11. New York: 47 ---------> 36
12. Columbus: 45 --------> 36
13. St Louis: 44 ----------> 36
14. Vegas: 43 ----------- > 36
15. Dallas: 42 ----------- > 35
16. Colorado: 38 ------- > 33


I also believe that if the first month is excluded, the Flames are probably right there with Tampa in 5 on 5 regulation wins which may actually mean that in terms of playoff style wins, the Flames are pretty even with Tampa and a series between the 2 might actually be a lot closer than what the total points column would indicate. The numbers also show that the Flames and Lightning may be in a league of their own right now.

[442scotty]

It’s gonna be a fun series to watch (hopefully) . If everyone plays to their abilities then Colorado should not pose a problem

[MrMike]

Sounds like tonight Dallas is resting Benn, Bishop, Zuccarello and Polak

[btimbit]

Hot streak or not, I'd much rather face the goalie that went on a hot streak this time last year and still only lasted 2.5 playoff games before getting yanked (Grubaur), than a guy who should get a Vezina nomination in Bishop