Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Human rights will always come before economic prosperity for me. It's the fundamental core of why we exist and do things freely, and why we are privileged to enjoy that. Even playing field for all. Worse comes to worse you just live minimalist, learn how to be frugal, or move elsewhere for economic opportunity, at least in my opinion.

I feel like the economic choice is a bit of a false dichotomy.

The last 3 or 4 conservative governments we had pissed away the Alberta advantage, allowed infrastructure to crumble, gave individuals money rather then considering the benefits of collective investment, and now they are buying the votes of those who can provide for themselves by promising tax cuts, without regard for the social or economic health of the province, and they hold this up a fiscal responsibility.

The NDP hasn't shown much success economically, but they have also been saddled with the 5 worst years for Alberta since the early 80s, and comparing them economically the Stelmach or Redford governments is no contest at this point. Two of the governments let a run away resource economy carry the day while failing to prepare for the inevitable downturn that comes with that type of economy, the third faced with that very downturn attempted to spend there way out of it in a Keynsian fashion and the juries still out.

I think it is possible to believe in the hybrid system of open capitalism with a strong social welfare state that defined the western world from the 30s through to the 90s. I would be the first to admit that game theory and a race to the bottom makes impossible for a jurisdiction as small as Alberta to single handily create a strong social economy. But this does not mean we have to assume the people who are willing to explicitly pander to subsection of the populations economic interests, are by default the best economic stewards.

So can we stop ceding the ground.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by wireframe

I work at an oil and gas company. Personally, I support the NDP because I think they have been good for Alberta as a whole, including oil and gas.

I really am scratching my head at this statement. What has improved in Alberta in the past five years? I guess I could see an argument that things have improved for public sector employees, but things have not been pretty for the rest of us:

- Healthcare benchmarks have not shown improvement despite increases in spending at AHS, and on aggregate things have gotten worse: go to page 135 of the AHS annual report to see for yourself, but here are the wait time metrics:
Change in wait time from 2014 to 2017:
Radiation Oncology +8.2%
Medical Oncology +1.8%
Coronary Artery Bypass +49%
Cataract Surgery +28.4%
Hip Replacement +27.9%
Knee Replacement +23.3%

- Crime has increased across the province each year, both in terms of per capita rates, but also in terms of severity. Calgary used to be safer than the national average, but this is not the case any longer.

- The drug crisis in the province continues to persist out of control. The chart on page 17 of this report is eye-opening.

-Average weekly earnings have stagnated brutally - after you consider the impacts of inflation the median Albertan has been consistently losing money for the past half decade.

- And of course, the majority of economic metrics on this dashboard have exhibited negative trends over the past five years. Bankruptcies, incorporation, investment, housing starts, construction, etc - take your pick. It's a horrendous record.

Originally Posted by wireframe

I work at an oil and gas company. Personally, I support the NDP because I think they have been good for Alberta as a whole, including oil and gas.

NDP record on oil and gas:

- A royalty review in 2015 that resulted in uncertainty that essentially resulted in missing a cycle of capital spending. That investment found other jurisdictions (Eagle Ford, Permian) and hasn't returned.

Now obviously the lack of pipeline capacity has affected oilpatch capital as well, but those same constraints existed in 2014 when investment peaked.

For comparison - here is global capital investment in the oilpatch - note the increases in North America.


- Of course, the corporate tax increase that did not result in increased government revenue certainly didn't help things. It just contributed to the stigma against investing in Alberta. Also contributing to this stigma is the cap on oil sands emissions.

- I actually don't mind a carbon tax in theory, but the non-revenue neutral way in which it has been implemented is very stupid.

- Speaking of a gap in financial and economic education, NDP policymakers simply lack an understanding of how wealth is created in a market economy. They are well meaning, but naive and ideological rather than analytical thinkers - as exemplified by the PPA fiasco.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Ducay

A religious person holding religious beliefs? I am shocked

The education Critic holding these beliefs at a time when the UCP is arguing for school choice and parental consent for teaching.

You can argue that repealing the NDP education act wasn’t about undoing the GSA protections but when this guy is your education critic that doesn’t really hold water.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Of course she was. She "quit", but only because she was told she had no choice. No way did she walk away voluntarily, especially in light of these comments which are arguably worse.

To me it came off as more of a mutual decision. I think she had second thoughts after her old social media posts started coming out and didn want to have her name ran through the mud anymore than it already had or to defend her statements. Playing the victim of a “smear” campaign card could have(but didn’t really) helped the UCP and any of their other candidates coming under the same fire gain sympathy. So it would make political sense to do so. If the UCP really demanded her resignation you would think we’d be seeing them give the same treatment to Mark Smith. Though that may still happen.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Zarley

I really am scratching my head at this statement. What has improved in Alberta in the past five years? I guess I could see an argument that things have improved for public sector employees, but things have not been pretty for the rest of us:


- Crime has increased across the province each year, both in terms of per capita rates, but also in terms of severity. Calgary used to be safer than the national average, but this is not the case any longer.

- The drug crisis in the province continues to persist out of control. The chart on page 17 of this report is eye-opening.

-Average weekly earnings have stagnated brutally - after you consider the impacts of inflation the median Albertan has been consistently losing money for the past half decade.

- And of course, the majority of economic metrics on this dashboard have exhibited negative trends over the past five years. Bankruptcies, incorporation, investment, housing starts, construction, etc - take your pick. It's a horrendous record.



NDP record on oil and gas:

- A royalty review in 2015 that resulted in uncertainty that essentially resulted in missing a cycle of capital spending. That investment found other jurisdictions (Eagle Ford, Permian) and hasn't returned.

Now obviously the lack of pipeline capacity has affected oilpatch capital as well, but those same constraints existed in 2014 when investment peaked.

For comparison - here is global capital investment in the oilpatch - note the increases in North America.


- Of course, the corporate tax increase that did not result in increased government revenue certainly didn't help things. It just contributed to the stigma against investing in Alberta. Also contributing to this stigma is the cap on oil sands emissions.

- I actually don't mind a carbon tax in theory, but the non-revenue neutral way in which it has been implemented is very stupid.

- Speaking of a gap in financial and economic education, NDP policymakers simply lack an understanding of how wealth is created in a market economy. They are well meaning, but naive and ideological rather than analytical thinkers - as exemplified by the PPA fiasco.

Fully agree with you on healthcare and Carbon tax.

I think you are misusing statistics on oil and gas. In 2014 their were 3 pipelines on the books that some of which were planned to be operating now. These constraints were risks rather than roadblocks to projects.

Also the record on corporate taxes we do not have the data to parse whether the tax increase led to lower revenues than if the tax had been the same. If anything it would be a significant US tax decrease that dwarfs any changes to our rates having affects.

For drug use and crime I don’t think government policy is making a difference here. The overall economy is what is driving those numbers. They are lagging indicators of unemployment. They also did a pretty good job on the pot leagalization front and didn’t screw it up too badly (see Ontario).

The other thing they haven’t done is reduced spending. There is no drive to find efficiency and reduce cost. There should be continuous pressure being put on managers to find and deliver reduced costs.

The light bulbs and PPAs should be disqualifying. How anyone thought these were good ideas is mind boggling.

The NDP did an okay job given the hand they were dealt. Not great, not terrible. They are being tagged with a lot of things that were out of there control. That said they haven’t done good enough to warrant another term.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by #-3

I feel like the economic choice is a bit of a false dichotomy.

The last 3 or 4 conservative governments we had pissed away the Alberta advantage, allowed infrastructure to crumble, gave individuals money rather then considering the benefits of collective investment, and now they are buying the votes of those who can provide for themselves by promising tax cuts, without regard for the social or economic health of the province, and they hold this up a fiscal responsibility.

Have you read the UCP platform? Whose votes are they buying? They haven’t proposed a flat tax or any personal tax cuts.

The tax cuts they have proposed are specifically for the improvement of the economic health of the province (Whethwr you agree with the race to the bottom on corporate taxes or that lower corporate taxes increases overall tax revenues or not)

They aren’t really proposing to significantly cut services. They are going to hold the line on current program spending. Assuming a few more years of zero for the unions (Notley did a really good job here) then you are cutting services by 1-2% per year after inflation and pop growth. This seems like pretty reasonable targets.

If you look at their economic plan outside of foolishly cutting the Carbon tax it is pretty reasonable.

[OMG!WTF!]

What? A head office coming to Calgary?

https://calgaryherald.com/business/l...ers-to-calgary

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Ducay

A religious person holding religious beliefs? I am shocked

Not all religious people equate homosexuality with pedophilia. In fact, only crazies do.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

What? A head office coming to Calgary?



https://calgaryherald.com/business/l...ers-to-calgary

Notley diversifying the economy!

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Zarley

I really am scratching my head at this statement. What has improved in Alberta in the past five years? I guess I could see an argument that things have improved for public sector employees, but things have not been pretty for the rest of us:

You can see how things have improved for employees who took wage freezes during the NDP’s tenure? That’s a wonderfully glass half full approach.

- Healthcare benchmarks have not shown improvement despite increases in spending at AHS, and on aggregate things have gotten worse: go to page 135 of the AHS annual report to see for yourself, but here are the wait time metrics:
Change in wait time from 2014 to 2017:
Radiation Oncology +8.2%
Medical Oncology +1.8%
Coronary Artery Bypass +49%
Cataract Surgery +28.4%
Hip Replacement +27.9%
Knee Replacement +23.3%

While I would agree that the increased wait times are disappointing, trying to argue that increased funding to AHS as a whole should have reduced wait times for all healthcare treatments is disengenuous. It ignores the improvements made in areas like increased access to mental health treatments and other newly built infrastructure that doesn’t affect these procedures. There are a number of factors that contribute to wait times increasing, a larger aging population, violent crime and drug use increasing emergency room visits, etc.

- Crime has increased across the province each year, both in terms of per capita rates, but also in terms of severity. Calgary used to be safer than the national average, but this is not the case any longer.

- The drug crisis in the province continues to persist out of control. The chart on page 17 of this report is eye-opening.

The unfortunate reality is that there is generally an increase in both of these categories during economic downturns. If you truly believe our pipeline capacity issues weren’t the primary cause of the downturn I can understand why you’d blame the NDP for these trends, but I don’t believe that to be the case.

-Average weekly earnings have stagnated brutally - after you consider the impacts of inflation the median Albertan has been consistently losing money for the past half decade.

That seems like a predictable outcome given the fact that an industry whose employees were generally compensated at an above average rate was impacted with the most job losses.

- And of course, the majority of economic metrics on this dashboard have exhibited negative trends over the past five years. Bankruptcies, incorporation, investment, housing starts, construction, etc - take your pick. It's a horrendous record.

These are again very predictable outcomes when your jurisdiction faces one of it’s worst economic downturns and the primary contributing factor(pipeline capacity) isn’t addressed.

Now obviously the lack of pipeline capacity has affected oilpatch capital as well, but those same constraints existed in 2014 when investment peaked.

Investment peaked in 2014 and was on a downward trend before the NDP took office yet you’re maintaining that the NDP are to blame. If what you are saying is accurate we wouldn’t have a capacity issue, as our existing pipelines would be empty due to lack of investment.

For comparison - here is global capital investment in the oilpatch - note the increases in North America.

How do we compare to other jurisdictions with no export capacity? That should be the comparable you’re presenting to validate your argument that the NDP’s policies are to blame for the lack of investment. Otherwise it’s essentially apples to oranges.

- Of course, the corporate tax increase that did not result in increased government revenue certainly didn't help things. It just contributed to the stigma against investing in Alberta. Also contributing to this stigma is the cap on oil sands emissions.

What tax rate would have been more suitable to attract investment in an industry that can’t profitably move it’s commodity?

- Speaking of a gap in financial and economic education, NDP policymakers simply lack an understanding of how wealth is created in a market economy. They are well meaning, but naive and ideological rather than analytical thinkers - as exemplified by the PPA fiasco.

So your solution is to elect a government that believes in trickle down economics as the key to prosperity. Now who’s being naive and idealogical?

[Ducay]

Hey next time someone posts a pair of giant graphs, can we be sure to quote it 100 times? The 50 times that one has been quoted is not nearly enough scrolling.

[Bunk]

They really need to stop bathing themselves in the Lake of Fire.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by GGG

Have you read the UCP platform? Whose votes are they buying? They haven’t proposed a flat tax or any personal tax cuts.

The tax cuts they have proposed are specifically for the improvement of the economic health of the province (Whethwr you agree with the race to the bottom on corporate taxes or that lower corporate taxes increases overall tax revenues or not)

They aren’t really proposing to significantly cut services. They are going to hold the line on current program spending. Assuming a few more years of zero for the unions (Notley did a really good job here) then you are cutting services by 1-2% per year after inflation and pop growth. This seems like pretty reasonable targets.

If you look at their economic plan outside of foolishly cutting the Carbon tax it is pretty reasonable.

I have read their policy statement.

https://unitedconservative.ca/Conten...eclaration.pdf
 repeal the provincial carbon tax and vigorously oppose the imposition of any federal carbon tax.
 restore the provincial personal tax rate to a flat rate.
 restore the provincial corporate tax rate to a flat rate.

[Ozy_Flame]

The Alberta Party announced today that they would support and help build the Alaska-Alberta Rail and Pipeline Corridor. Interestingly enough, later in the afternoon, the Governor of Alaska announced his request to President Trump to grant a rail extension to Northern Alberta to get product to markets faster, including bitumen.

Opportunistic tweet, but I think it's a pretty neat plank that deserves some thought, especially when we can stick it to B.C. with an important Pacific port state on-board.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1113189020664770566

[PsYcNeT]

Goddamn flat taxation is so immensely simple-minded.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Goddamn flat taxation is so immensely simple-minded.

Ok, I’ll bite. Why?

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

The Alberta Party announced today that they would support and help build the Alaska-Alberta Rail and Pipeline Corridor. Interestingly enough, later in the afternoon, the Governor of Alaska announced his request to President Trump to grant a rail extension to Northern Alberta to get product to markets faster, including bitumen.

Opportunistic tweet, but I think it's a pretty neat plank that deserves some thought, especially when we can stick it to B.C. with an important Pacific port state on-board.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1113189020664770566

Target completion date: Q3 2034

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ok, I’ll bite. Why?

The greatest innovation of western social democracies was not democracy, but upward economical mobility. To attain this you need smart policy that rewards productivity and puts limits on the gravitational pull of capital, which leads to hoarding and rent seeking.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ok, I’ll bite. Why?

You are such a sucker

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

You are such a sucker

Says the poster who’s tried to argue that taking away banked overtime compensation legislation that has Alberta employees receiving what workers in every other province that allows for banking of overtime hours are guaranteed isn’t a shot at workers in Alberta.