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Old 03-31-2019, 12:16 PM   #921
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Originally Posted by iggy_oi View Post
Not everyone agrees with lowering taxes to pay for more things.

Maybe when political parties stop trying to convince everyone that lowering taxes will get the debt paid off quicker?
Hopefully not.
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Old 03-31-2019, 12:33 PM   #922
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Maybe when political parties stop trying to convince everyone that lowering taxes will get the debt paid off quicker?
Hopefully that will coincide with people realizing that capital is mobile and when people can do business in less hostile (or less incompetent) jurisdictions than Alberta and Canada, they will, and that means your higher tax rate can easily produce less revenue, and a lower rate can easily mean a smaller piece of a larger pie because the market fundamentals make sense for people deploying capital here, rather than Colorado, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Texas.

It is also important to note that many people are fine with seeing government slashed a bit, in exchange for fewer services. I can at least understand the segment who want to raise tax for everyone in exchange for more services, at least it's logical. The group that want more and want to pay less (or simply want others to pay more on their behalf) are pretty problematic and represent a significant amount of Canadian voters.
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Old 03-31-2019, 02:45 PM   #923
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Another poll released today shows the gap between NDP and UCP narrowing.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...-jason-kenney/

Big graphs:

Spoiler!


Quote:
Methodology:

This survey was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada.

The field dates for this survey are March 15-26, 2019. In total, a random sample of 1,015 Alberta residents aged 18 and over responded to the survey (200 by phone, 815 online). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, gender, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Alberta according to Census data.
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Old 03-31-2019, 02:55 PM   #924
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That's somewhat concerning although I don't really buy that the NDP are at 44% here in Calgary.

Last edited by Zarley; 03-31-2019 at 03:22 PM.
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Old 03-31-2019, 03:19 PM   #925
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Anytime a poll has the majority of it as being "online" I pretty much instantly doubt its accuracy.
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Old 03-31-2019, 03:22 PM   #926
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The UCP platform document released yesterday has an impressive level of detail:

https://www.albertastrongandfree.ca/...19Platform.pdf

I haven't had a chance to read it in depth, but I think it's more moderate than I was expecting. Personally, I would have loved to see a commitment to actual cuts in public service spending, but I get why they wouldn't want to propose that.
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Old 03-31-2019, 04:08 PM   #927
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Anytime a poll has the majority of it as being "online" I pretty much instantly doubt its accuracy.
I don't know how much more accurate phone calls would be. I agree it should be more balanced. Maybe include text responses too?
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Old 03-31-2019, 04:09 PM   #928
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Edit- already addressed.
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Old 03-31-2019, 04:29 PM   #929
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KTrain View Post
Another poll released today shows the gap between NDP and UCP narrowing.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...-jason-kenney/

Big graphs:

Spoiler!
44% for the ndp. Wow. That’s an even better result than what they got elected with. I guess the ndp is growing in popularity.

Looks like some strong growing support in rural alberta.
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Old 03-31-2019, 04:53 PM   #930
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Is the Alberta party more socially progressive than the UCP? I did initially look at the UCP but a lot of the socially conservative values are making me feel that I can't vote UCP with a clear moral conscious.
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Old 03-31-2019, 04:55 PM   #931
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Haven't been following this thread much, has the UCP getting rid of the 1.5x banked time rules been discussed?


https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/com...straight_time/


I was in the air on who I was supporting or even if I was going to vote at all, but this seals my vote for the NDP. Being IT you end up working a lot of after hours to get changes done, and having those banked at 1.5 was a huge help. UCP cancelling that for no other discernable reason than "NDP did it so it must be bad" is pathetic
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:01 PM   #932
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Postmedia clarified it was their misinterpretation, and indeed isn't a UCP policy.
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:01 PM   #933
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Is the Alberta party more socially progressive than the UCP? I did initially look at the UCP but a lot of the socially conservative values are making me feel that I can't vote UCP with a clear moral conscious.
What specifically are these social conservative values? I've been hearing this a lot but I haven't seen anything in their platform that I'd consider socially regressive.
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:11 PM   #934
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Postmedia clarified it was their misinterpretation, and indeed isn't a UCP policy.
Post media had reported that the change was to remove time and one half pay for all overtime(or something to that nature), and they later clarified that was not in the UCP platform. However removing time and one half compensation for banked overtime is absolutely part of the UCP platform.
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:18 PM   #935
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What specifically are these social conservative values? I've been hearing this a lot but I haven't seen anything in their platform that I'd consider socially regressive.
One would the the edcation act repeal which removes protections against GSAs. It also appears to give clear rights to parents to opt children out of certain aspects of educations and gives school boards more power to set carriculums.
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:23 PM   #936
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Originally Posted by RogerWilco View Post
Is the Alberta party more socially progressive than the UCP? I did initially look at the UCP but a lot of the socially conservative values are making me feel that I can't vote UCP with a clear moral conscious.
I guess it depends what you mean in terms of specific policies, but generally yes.

At the moment, the only substantive policy I have seen released by the UCP that affects social issues of the type you seem to be describing is their Education Plan, which would effectively un-do former Bill 24, "An Act to Support Gay Straight Alliances". Here is then-leader Greg Clark's statement about that bill when it was up for debate in 2017.

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Old 03-31-2019, 05:23 PM   #937
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Originally Posted by stampsx2 View Post
44% for the ndp. Wow. That’s an even better result than what they got elected with. I guess the ndp is growing in popularity.

Looks like some strong growing support in rural alberta.
Maybe (I don’t recall what their percentage of Calgary votes was) but don’t forget that the dynamic of a significant vote split on the right is not a factor in this election, so arguably the NDP needs a higher share of the vote in some regions to hang on to seats.
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:53 PM   #938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducay View Post
Postmedia clarified it was their misinterpretation, and indeed isn't a UCP policy.
No, it’s right there in the actual UCP platform:

Quote:
Return to allowing banked hours to be paid out at regular pay instead of time-and-a-half.
https://unitedconservative.ca/Articl...ews_Mar152019&
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Old 03-31-2019, 06:02 PM   #939
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Anytime a poll has the majority of it as being "online" I pretty much instantly doubt its accuracy.
It is worth noting that, according to people who have it, it is apparently in line with the paywalled Mainstreet daily polling data (with the last Mainstreet polling apparently showing an NDP lead).

I'm not fully aware about how accurate Mainstreet is (they apparently did a review and made significant changes to their techniques after bungling the Calgary municipal election, with "proof of concept" results made when they accurately predicted Ontario's provincial election)...using the previous tracking between the last election an this one, they seem to be favouring the UCP a little when compared to similarly timed Abacus and Leger data while being less favouring of the UCP than Lethbridge College. But it could very well be a reasonable result and a realistic possibility. I think the probability of a close race being fact increases if we get more and more agencies reporting the same result.

On reddit, it sounds like the stats crunchers still have it in the UCP's favour with the NDP needing to make gains in UCP Calgary strongholds to win the election.
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Old 03-31-2019, 07:47 PM   #940
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Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda View Post
Haven't been following this thread much, has the UCP getting rid of the 1.5x banked time rules been discussed?


https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/com...straight_time/


I was in the air on who I was supporting or even if I was going to vote at all, but this seals my vote for the NDP. Being IT you end up working a lot of after hours to get changes done, and having those banked at 1.5 was a huge help. UCP cancelling that for no other discernable reason than "NDP did it so it must be bad" is pathetic
If you were willing to change your vote to a different party based on one policy out of over a hundred then you were never going to vote for the ucp anyway.
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