[Rumour] UPD: Canes will try to trade Adam Fox after he indicates he will not sign with them

[Old Yeller]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be gleefully patting Calgary on the back for the "fleecing" when the majority of posters on the board though Treliving should have been fired for the trade.

Why do people do this?

Just argue your point without generalizations.

[Northendzone]

I was hoping that he would have to go back into the draft. I thought it would be epic if he was drafted by Edmonton.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

That's the classic example of finding data to back up an opinion (not saying you did so maliciously, but I don't think this data tells us what you think it does). The Harvard part of this story is pretty irrelevant, the school, likely has very little to do with the choice the players are making to leave early or not...

Really? Harvard is consistently ranked as one of the top five or ten universities in the world. You don't believe that has any bearing on whether or not a player chooses an additional year to complete their degree as alternatively turning pro? It seems that—counter to your argument, since Adam Fox IS a top prospect who now seems to have passed over the opportunity to turn pro twice that his Harvard degree might be of some importance.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by 4X4

It actually kind of surprises me how many choose not to finish their degree from some of the top universities. I know, it's the NHL, but a degree from Harvard? That's pretty valuable as well, and handy to have once you're done playing hockey. Nobody is going to go do their final year when they're 35 and too old for the NHL.

And what if you don't really make the NHL? Giving up a Harvard degree to make $70,000 in the AHL? Seems like there are plenty of good reasons to finish the degree and then become UFA. Really the only risk is getting severely injured in your senior year.

My guess is the way the "Family Advisor" tells his clients to look at this is by looking at how signing your ELC impacts when you'll become RFA aka when you start making more money.

So with that logic in mind really the only scenario where it made sense for Fox to sign early was if he was signed after year 1 or 2.

If Fox signed after:

Year 1: 3 year ELC - 19 Years Old - RFA by 20/21

Year 2: 3 year ELC - 20 Years Old - RFA by 21/22

Year 3: 3 year ELC - 21 Years Old - RFA by 22/23

Year 4: 2 year ELC - 22 Years Old - RFA by 22/23 - Gets to pick his own team.

So it doesn't matter if he signs this offseason, or signs next offseason, he goes to RFA the same year but with the added benefit of picking his own team if he waits to sign next offseason.

My guess is Treliving was smart enough to realize this, and that's why he decided to trade Fox. Knew the writing was on the wall after he didn't sign last year because really he has nothing to gain signing this offseason.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

No - that was never said. Just wasn't sure.

Not sure I agree.

Treliving wasn't forthright for sure, but he did say something like "there was a problem getting the player signed" which to me pretty much spelled out he didn't want to either sign in Calgary, or sign with anyone until he went UFA.

Then Fox denied it which was pretty clearly wanting the transition to Carolina to go smoothly, as I just can't see Treliving lying about the subject.

Either way ... great asset management.

Ferland who would have priced himself out of his cap space for his role, a prospect that you knew would be tough to sign, and a defenseman at his trade value max.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Just imagine being a kid who decides he wants to finish his Harvard Education after being in school for 15 years and getting hated on for it. Ha.

Not sure I agree that's the issue.

People hate the loop hole and it gets directed against those that use it, but it's not about school.

If Fox came out a year ago and told Calgary or right now and told Carolina that he will sign with them but he wants to finish his education first, nobody would bat an eye.

But he's also in it for choosing his destination, not just finishing school.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I don't have a problem with a player using the loop hole. If it is there - the player has the right to use it.
What I don't like is when a player isn't transparent about things. Tom gave the Flames the impression that he was going to sign...until he wasn't.
If Fox isn't going to sign with the Canes he should tell them that in very direct ways.
If the player does that, then I have no issue with it.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by 4X4

It actually kind of surprises me how many choose not to finish their degree from some of the top universities. I know, it's the NHL, but a degree from Harvard? That's pretty valuable as well, and handy to have once you're done playing hockey. Nobody is going to go do their final year when they're 35 and too old for the NHL.

And what if you don't really make the NHL? Giving up a Harvard degree to make $70,000 in the AHL? Seems like there are plenty of good reasons to finish the degree and then become UFA. Really the only risk is getting severely injured in your senior year.

for most kids, getting to the NHL is their dream, so when you have a chance to sign on the dotted line, you take that chance and run with it. The money is a nice bonus as well, especially the way the NCAA enforces amateurism.

i think a lot of kids justify it with the knowledge that 'they can always go back' to school... how many kids actually do that is unknown to me... that said Johnny left school early and went back in the summers to complete his degree... so it can be done, it just needs to be considered a priority for that particular kid

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

What I don't like is when a player isn't transparent about things. Tom gave the Flames the impression that he was going to sign...until he wasn't.
If Fox isn't going to sign with the Canes he should tell them that in very direct ways.
If the player does that, then I have no issue with it.

That may have happened behind the scenes to be honest.

The team never wants that to get out publicly though because when it does then it's bye bye trade value.

IMO the fact that the Carolina based reporters (aka those closest to the team) are now all out saying that nothing has been determined yet may be part of this. Try and keep the mystery going to at least try and re-coup some type of asset via a trade if you can.

Based on what I posted above, and on Carolina having a log jam of RH d-men already, it would be unlikely for him to sign there. Why sign in a place with 4 quality RH d-men NHLers right now when you'd be RFA at the same time if you just wait.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

As of 2017 only 2 players had left Harvard early to play pro since 1995, out of 19 in total played pro in that period.

http://www.flamesfrom80feet.ca/2017/...things-to.html

So this shouldn't have been a shock.

Ryan Donato did it last year, so that's one more to add the list.


As Cleveland Steam Whistle said, you also have to compare that list with the players who had the option to leave Harvard early and chose to go back. We know that Vesey and Fox did, but I'm not sure how many others there were. The few Harvard players who have made it to the NHL aren't exactly a list of superstars.

[Strange Brew]

I have always wanted to know what was Fox’s relative value to the deal. Would Carolina have accepted a 2nd poind pick, 3rd round pick, Kylington etc.?

That would be great info and really speak to the shrewdness of including him bs other options.

[868904]

Originally Posted by getbak

Ryan Donato did it last year, so that's one more to add the list.

And Donato got traded within a year. He may be rethinking that decision; however, at least he is producing in Minnesota.

It’s a no brainer for Fox or any Ivy League player to finish their degree. In fact, they should withhold their degree if they don’t opt for UFA, cause that’s the smart decision!

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I still don’t consider it a “fleecing”. It was a good deal, that has ended up working out really well for the Flames, and a bit for the Hurricanes. They are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot.

Technically speaking they're now closer to winning their division than losing the wild card spot. (Although down 1-0 against the Caps as I'm typing this.)

Hasn't anyone else noticed they've got one of the best records in the league since the trade deadline?

They're too busy being excited about their team to be worried about this trade right now.

(Also, Columvus falling out of the playoffs right now, what a disaster that would be for that franchise, with half their team becoming UFAs in the summer... )

[monkeyman]

He probably saw all those stupid after game celebrations the Canes were doing and decided he wanted no part of it.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

So with that logic in mind really the only scenario where it made sense for Fox to sign early was if he was signed after year 1 or 2.

If Fox signed after:

Year 1: 3 year ELC - 19 Years Old - RFA by 20/21

Year 2: 3 year ELC - 20 Years Old - RFA by 21/22

Year 3: 3 year ELC - 21 Years Old - RFA by 22/23

Year 4: 2 year ELC - 22 Years Old - RFA by 22/23 - Gets to pick his own team.

So it doesn't matter if he signs this offseason, or signs next offseason, he goes to RFA the same year but with the added benefit of picking his own team if he waits to sign next offseason.

If the primary goal is to get to RFA faster, then it would make more sense to sign with the Canes as they are the only team (barring a his rights being traded) that can burn a year of his ELC before Fox becomes UFA.

Assuming the Canes are willing to burn a year off his ELC , Fox can become an RFA in 21/22. If he waits until he is UFA he will be RFA by 22/23.

Essentially the choice for Fox is trading his choice of team and finishing his degree for a year of secondary contract. Given some of the second contracts elite players coming off ELCs are now signing, that could be significant $.

Of course salary arbitration rights is also a factor too, but if the Canes really don't want to lose him they could ensure that he gets them as well.

[SuperMatt18]

They can only burn the year if Harvard finish their season before the Canes do.

So that’s not exactly clear yet at this point or if it will be possible next season either.

It’s part of the consideration but really in the end that’s not a lock either.

[dino7c]

Carolina is having a decent season but this was a fleecing. Ferland is UFA, Dougie has 2 years left, now Fox won't sign lol.

Meanwhile the Flames players are locked up to long term club friendly deals and about to win the division/conference.

Very likely next year Hamilton is all they have to show for the deal

[chummer]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Carolina is having a decent season but this was a fleecing. Ferland is UFA, Dougie has 2 years left, now Fox won't sign lol.

Meanwhile the Flames players are locked up to long term club friendly deals and about to win the division/conference.

Very likely next year Hamilton is all they have to show for the deal

Not to mention the two brilliant contracts Treliving signed these guys to.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but yeah this was a huge win for the Flames.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

They can only burn the year if Harvard finish their season before the Canes do.

So that’s not exactly clear yet at this point or if it will be possible next season either.

It’s part of the consideration but really in the end that’s not a lock either.

Technically he can sign whenever he wants regardless of Harvard's season, but the players don't usually screw over the team.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Really? Harvard is consistently ranked as one of the top five or ten universities in the world. You don't believe that has any bearing on whether or not a player chooses an additional year to complete their degree as alternatively turning pro? It seems that—counter to your argument, since Adam Fox IS a top prospect who now seems to have passed over the opportunity to turn pro twice that his Harvard degree might be of some importance.

Yes it does impact, but the impact it has is up front when the player chose the school, not when they are deciding to stay in school or leave. The 2 and 19 stat is a reflection that Harvard, relatively speaking, doesn’t attract the top hockey talent, it attracts the smartest people who are also competent at hockey (relatively speaking). Therefore most of their players play out their full 4 years, mostly because that is not only their best academic route, but also their best hockey development route and general best life plan because they likely aren’t ready to make a jump directly to the NHL (like Gaudreau).