Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

(Chuckle). Ok.

I’m fine trying to work with these guys and admit I have a bias ... it is “informed” by science and logic, I suppose.

My bias is basically having a firm belief that, statistics be damned, there are some shots a goalie (any goalie) can’t physically react to in time to adjust their position to stop. The numbers check out.

When a fast enough shot is taken from sufficiently close, and it is directed at open net available around the outline goalie, it is going in. Physics dictate that it is so.

Something seems very hard for some people to understand. Either that there are such shots, or that there were more such shots one game specifically than is statistically usual, and is mystifying as to why.

Maybe we have a poster called ScienceCritic or StatisticsCritic somewhere that can accept it without resorting to silly accusations of bias

I agree that some goals are not stoppable. But, breakaway goals are never unstoppable. They may be unstoppable given how the goalie has chosen to position himself, but they are never unstoppable generally. If they were, the formula would be known and guys would score every time.

Positioning is a huge part of it. And I didn't like Rittich's positioning at all on goals #2 and #4. Goal #3 was a breakaway so you can never call it a bad goal, but he got burned pretty bad on that one too. Not like the shot was bar down or anything.

He just doesn't look like a guy who can carry this team through 4 grueling playoff rounds right now. Still time to get hot though.

[Bingo]

Both goalies face lots of shots.

Some are hard.

Some are moderate.

Some are easy.

Over the course of the last 2/3 of the season, the two Calgary goalies are pretty similar statistically.

There has to be some science in there somewhere doesn't there?

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Both goalies face lots of shots.

Some are hard.

Some are moderate.

Some are easy.

Over the course of the last 2/3 of the season, the two Calgary goalies are pretty similar statistically.

There has to be some science in there somewhere doesn't there?

Incorrect. there are no "easy" shots for Mike Smith. Every shot is an adventure!

[rain_e]

All I have to say is you can win a Cup with Smith this year. Rittich is not capable of going all the way this year, it could be in his future but he's not there yet.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

I agree that some goals are not stoppable. But, breakaway goals are never unstoppable. They may be unstoppable given how the goalie has chosen to position himself, but they are never unstoppable generally. If they were, the formula would be known and guys would score every time.

Positioning is a huge part of it. And I didn't like Rittich's positioning at all on goals #2 and #4. Goal #3 was a breakaway so you can never call it a bad goal, but he got burned pretty bad on that one too. Not like the shot was bar down or anything.

He just doesn't look like a guy who can carry this team through 4 grueling playoff rounds right now. Still time to get hot though.

You talking about last night? I have no argument. Didn’t think he was sharp.

This sidetrack was a response to when TC brought up blame sharing of goals vs TB. I said way back that I thought he played well that night, knowing I would hear objections, and be able to make an unpopular case.

If the team is through the doldrums part of the season, and can start scoring at will again, maybe even I could play net and do ok.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Both goalies face lots of shots.

Some are hard.

Some are moderate.

Some are easy.

Over the course of the last 2/3 of the season, the two Calgary goalies are pretty similar statistically.

There has to be some science in there somewhere doesn't there?

Absolutely! The better goalie faced more unstoppable shots! 😃

(That’s a joke. I have no axe to grind with Smith, though Scorp did dig up a joke I made when someone mentioned moving goalposts.)

[Bingo]

I just don't see Calgary as having a true number one goaltender right now. They have two guys that are playing below league average (avg team save percentage).

That's a problem

I think Rittich is the better goaltender, both now and in the future, but my confidence in him as waned considerably since the Xmas break.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just don't see Calgary as having a true number one goaltender right now. They have two guys that are playing below league average (avg team save percentage).

That's a problem

I think Rittich is the better goaltender, both now and in the future, but my confidence in him as waned considerably since the Xmas break.

I agree but think he just feels the pressure too much. You can almost see it. I'm worried the playoff pressure will just be too much, which is why i still think Smith gets the call in game #1 if it were to start tomorrow.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You talking about last night? I have no argument. Didn’t think he was sharp.

This sidetrack was a response to when TC brought up blame sharing of goals vs TB. I said way back that I thought he played well that night, knowing I would hear objections, and be able to make an unpopular case...

But you didn't.

As much "science" and "logic" as you attempt to project amounts to nothing more than your own passage of judgment on individual shot quality or speed in a vacuum of actual data, and these are more frequently cherry picked from a selection of games. Your common strategy is to insist upon the tacit acceptance of your own subjective opinion that you would pass off as a scientifically validated interpretation of an event.

Hence, my original charge that you seem to take issue with, but insist on looking past: either you object to apportioning some blame on the goalie for the loss in Tampa, or he is not completely blameless. You can't have it both ways.

[CanadaMatt]

The goalie struggles may actual help next year, as I imagine BSD will command less now than at Christmas.

Any chance we can lock him in right now for an AAV 2.5-3, rather than wait for (hopefully) a long playoff run where that AAV goes to ~4 and then re-signing Chucky becomes that much harder?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

I agree but think he just feels the pressure too much. You can almost see it. I'm worried the playoff pressure will just be too much, which is why i still think Smith gets the call in game #1 if it were to start tomorrow.

Since January 1st the Flames have ...

Save Percentage:
#24 Mike Smith .905
#33 David Rittich .895

GSAA
#23 Mike Smith -1.96
#33 David Rittich -7.20

That's a missing the playoffs starter (Smith), and an above average backup (Rittich).

It's the Achilles Heel

[Flash Walken]

Fortunately the flames will be able to score 9 goals per game until July so it's not a problem.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

The goalie struggles may actual help next year, as I imagine BSD will command less now than at Christmas.

Any chance we can lock him in right now for an AAV 2.5-3, rather than wait for (hopefully) a long playoff run where that AAV goes to ~4 and then re-signing Chucky becomes that much harder?

I just don't think there is any incentive for Rittich's agent to negotiate a deal today. He is arbitration eligible, which means that he will more than likely parlay an arbitration hearing into a more valuable contract in the summer.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just don't see Calgary as having a true number one goaltender right now. They have two guys that are playing below league average (avg team save percentage).

That's a problem

I think Rittich is the better goaltender, both now and in the future, but my confidence in him as waned considerably since the Xmas break.

True.

I think Rittich might have a bright future, but both of our goalies are weak. Despite the great season overall, I am not feeling confident about the team getting out of the 1st round.

When teams kick the physicality and defense into high gear, as they do in the playoffs, I don't think the Flames offense and goaltending will be able to keep the pace. We will see if the Flames can ramp up their physical and defensive game enough, but if they can't and need to open up more to try and outscore teams, I am afraid that our goalies are not going to succeed.

I hope I am wrong of course.

[David Struch]

I would prefer one of these options over Mike Smith.

Cory Schneider, 32 years old, 3x6 straight up no savings.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/cory-schneider

Jonathan Quick, 33 years old, 4x5.8 good savings last three years of contract.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jonathan-quick

[Jiggy]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

The goalie struggles may actual help next year, as I imagine BSD will command less now than at Christmas.

Any chance we can lock him in right now for an AAV 2.5-3, rather than wait for (hopefully) a long playoff run where that AAV goes to ~4 and then re-signing Chucky becomes that much harder?

Casey DeSmith signed for 3 years at 1.25 million a year. Rittich has similar numbers. I can't Rittich getting more than 1.75 million a year on his next contract.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I would prefer one of these options over Mike Smith.

Cory Schneider, 32 years old, 3x6 straight up no savings.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/cory-schneider

Jonathan Quick, 33 years old, 4x5.8 good savings last three years of contract.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jonathan-quick

Both have risk of breaking down.

There would have to be some salary retained and minimal return to make that happen for me.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I would prefer one of these options over Mike Smith.

Cory Schneider, 32 years old, 3x6 straight up no savings.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/cory-schneider

Jonathan Quick, 33 years old, 4x5.8 good savings last three years of contract.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jonathan-quick

I'm not sure of the relevance of this. Are you suggesting the Flames get one of them next season (in which case I'm not sure why the comparison is with Smith because he's gone) and the question would be more what assets you spend to acquire those guys (and would the team trade them anyway).

Or are you saying they should have gotten one of them instead of Smith two years ago, which would be odd because Quick was for sure not available and Schneider was near the beginning of a long term, expensive, NTC contract.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Jiggy

Casey DeSmith signed for 3 years at 1.25 million a year. Rittich has similar numbers. I can't Rittich getting more than 1.75 million a year on his next contract.

We can pick out all sorts of individual analogues and make conclusions. Does that same valuation process hold true if you use Koskinen instead of DeSmith as the market comparison?

My hunch is that Riddich fires his agent if said agent fails to convert a 24-7-5 season into more than 1.75 million a year.

Could he command more in the KHL? Genuine question.

[David Struch]

Yes, I'm suggesting the Flames get one of Schneider or Quick next season instead of Mike Smith returning.

The assets involved to acquire either guy would probably begin with Calgary's 1st round draft choice.