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Old 02-09-2019, 10:31 AM   #9321
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The talk about Kovalchuk vs Neal is moot. To replace Neal with Kovalchuk, Treliving would have to find another team to take Neal. Why? Trading your UFA signing who came to your team 'wanting to win', while also reportedly being a really classy player in the dressing room, especially sending him to the last place team in the league... that's a pretty terrible thing to do. I worry about Neal. I am wondering if Neal will ever come close to earning his contract. I see a guy who is trying out there. Some may point to his shooting percentage and hoping that the difference is no more than just 'bad luck' or 'adjusting to a new team'. I see a guy who isn't putting himself in areas that he should be getting to, or taking too long to get his shot off when he does. Kovalchuk SHOULD produce on the Flames (though there is no guarantee), but you also have to know Kovalchuk and figure out if he is a positive locker room presence. You don't want to disrupt the chemistry on the team, and having a disruptive presence can do just that.
I'm of similar mind.

The guy has been unlucky for sure, so that's some of it, but to expect him to just bounce back to 12.5% shooting percentage and score 20 may be a reach in the next four years as well.

Five on five he's down in individual scoring chances per 60 which is to suggest he isn't getting in the right spots to shoot as often for sure. His high danger chance rates are less changed though, at least compared to his last Nashville year.

But where he really suffers in chance generation is the powerplay compared to his previous stops ... and that's due to a brutal second unit and not playing at all on the top unit.

Plus ... you can't discount what some powerplay success may have done to his five on five confidence.

He was second unit in Vegas but still got it done, he was largely first unit in Nashville.
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Old 02-09-2019, 10:35 AM   #9322
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I'm of similar mind.



The guy has been unlucky for sure, so that's some of it, but to expect him to just bounce back to 12.5% shooting percentage and score 20 may be a reach in the next four years as well.



Five on five he's down in individual scoring chances per 60 which is to suggest he isn't getting in the right spots to shoot as often for sure. His high danger chance rates are less changed though, at least compared to his last Nashville year.



But where he really suffers in chance generation is the powerplay compared to his previous stops ... and that's due to a brutal second unit and not playing at all on the top unit.



Plus ... you can't discount what some powerplay success may have done to his five on five confidence.



He was second unit in Vegas but still got it done, he was largely first unit in Nashville.


I think a lot of the current analysis even seems out of date at this stage though.

7 points in his last 14 games is right around where we should have expected him to produce. Take it a step further back to life after the Christmas break, and he has 7 points in 15 games - again, not far off what we should be expecting from him. Even his work on PP2 has greatly improved, which does line up with when Backlund and Hanifin came off PP2 and Brodie and Andersson came on (and they switched primary carrier from Backlund/Ryan to Bennett/Ryan).

The horrific start to the season was troublesome for sure, but if you also look at Ryan he wasn’t terribly effective until the beginning of December or so. It takes time to adjust for sure, and yeah Neal suffered at the start but I think the player we’ve seen for the last 5 weeks has been pretty solid.

I feel like there’s more reason for optimism today than any other time this year.

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Old 02-09-2019, 11:00 AM   #9323
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Not to further de-rail this conversation but how is Neal’s performance even being discussed? He needs at least a complete year to get a full body of work and also settle in. Many were quick to jump on Dougie and Hammer in their first season and both came out strong in their second years. Neal will prove to be most valuable I believe in the playoffs should we make a deep run...I certainly would not trade him just yet...
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Old 02-09-2019, 11:23 AM   #9324
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I think a lot of the current analysis even seems out of date at this stage though.

7 points in his last 14 games is right around where we should have expected him to produce. Take it a step further back to life after the Christmas break, and he has 7 points in 15 games - again, not far off what we should be expecting from him. Even his work on PP2 has greatly improved, which does line up with when Backlund and Hanifin came off PP2 and Brodie and Andersson came on (and they switched primary carrier from Backlund/Ryan to Bennett/Ryan).

The horrific start to the season was troublesome for sure, but if you also look at Ryan he wasn’t terribly effective until the beginning of December or so. It takes time to adjust for sure, and yeah Neal suffered at the start but I think the player we’ve seen for the last 5 weeks has been pretty solid.

I feel like there’s more reason for optimism today than any other time this year.
Definitely better lately, but I hope the last 14 games don't represent his peak. 2 goals in 14 games is not sizzling. I will give Neal some rope (what choice is there) but the time to adjust excuse isn't my favorite given this is his fifth team and he has produced everywhere else.

I really feel it's important he gets some production before the playoffs. He is known as an uber confident guy, but even he must be gripping it right now. To expect him to flip a switch come playoffs is unreasonable, so would like to see a multi goal game or two between now and April. That would make a big difference for him IMO.
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Old 02-09-2019, 12:46 PM   #9325
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The only thing I don't like about these targets is they really don't address the pressing need of the team. This team needs a goaltender, full stop. I'm not sure I see anyone out there available that I would give up a first rounder for, but this is the area of greatest concern. Maybe a package with Detroit where we get Nyqvist and Howard, but that is a stretch IMO. Howard for a 3rd and a 4th? Still not sure I do that based on the depth of the organization.
Not going to argue that they need more from a backup, clearly that's the case.

But once again that's not my target. If the Flames lose Rittich, Giordano or Gaudreau they are likely not going to go very far. But they really can't bring in a player in each case as insurance.

If they get a backup how much of a change will it honestly be? Not much available. If they had the average backup, and he started 8 more games, the difference between the average backup and Smith is about 4.5 goals for the rest of the season.

Not sure I'd expend assets for that.
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Old 02-09-2019, 12:50 PM   #9326
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Not going to argue that they need more from a backup, clearly that's the case.

But once again that's not my target. If the Flames lose Rittich, Giordano or Gaudreau they are likely not going to go very far. But they really can't bring in a player in each case as insurance.

If they get a backup how much of a change will it honestly be? Not much available. If they had the average backup, and he started 8 more games, the difference between the average backup and Smith is about 4.5 goals for the rest of the season.

Not sure I'd expend assets for that.
Not trying to out words in your mouth but it sounds like you're suggesting the flames acquire some bottom roster defensive depth and roll the dice on the roster as is?

Boy, I don't agree with that at all.

For the record I think the time has expired on getting a new backup, the game plan at this point should be minimizing the impact of bad goaltending as much as possible which means augmenting the offensive group for more run support.

I'd go huge on a top 6/top line roster play, bottom 6 finisher and bottom pairing defender.
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Old 02-09-2019, 01:14 PM   #9327
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Who's the better goalie right now...Smith or Ortio?
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Old 02-09-2019, 01:26 PM   #9328
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Maybe I’m crazy but I thought Neal has played much better lately and seems to be settling into a role. Ya the contract isn’t looking great but he’s probably been the most effective player 5 on 5 on that 3rd line. Would be dumb to trade him when his value is probably very low


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Old 02-09-2019, 01:37 PM   #9329
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Not trying to out words in your mouth but it sounds like you're suggesting the flames acquire some bottom roster defensive depth and roll the dice on the roster as is?

Boy, I don't agree with that at all.

For the record I think the time has expired on getting a new backup, the game plan at this point should be minimizing the impact of bad goaltending as much as possible which means augmenting the offensive group for more run support.

I'd go huge on a top 6/top line roster play, bottom 6 finisher and bottom pairing defender.
No I'm good if they want to go big, as long as the prices are decent. If they're too high I don't mind a second tier guy for the forward group (Zucharello), and some defensive depth.

I just don't think goaltending is the place to fortify at this year's deadline.
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Old 02-09-2019, 01:52 PM   #9330
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If Toffoli can be had for only a late first rounder then you do it.
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:05 PM   #9331
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Who's the better goalie right now...Smith or Ortio?
Smith. No question.
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:15 PM   #9332
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If Toffoli can be had for only a late first rounder then you do it.

I've always liked Toffoli.

FYI (Just to save people a google)

Toffoli is 26, soon to be 27, one year left at 4.6 cap hit (then UFA).
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:16 PM   #9333
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Not going to argue that they need more from a backup, clearly that's the case.

But once again that's not my target. If the Flames lose Rittich, Giordano or Gaudreau they are likely not going to go very far. But they really can't bring in a player in each case as insurance.

If they get a backup how much of a change will it honestly be? Not much available. If they had the average backup, and he started 8 more games, the difference between the average backup and Smith is about 4.5 goals for the rest of the season.

Not sure I'd expend assets for that.
I think the Flames could weather it losing Gio or Gaudreau for a few games in the playoffs, maybe even a series. Losing Rittich (or just having him regress a little)... I doubt it very much.

We don't need a "back-up" goalie, as much as we do a capable goaltending partner that can be part of a tandem. The back-up concept is archaic and rarely useful. Most successful teams have 2 decent options and try to keep their goalies fresh.

I mentioned it a couple of times, but 30 goalies saw playoff action last year. So far this season, there are about 50 goalies that have played more than a 1/3rd of their teams games (keeping in mind that many of those teams have used more than 2 goalies this season). Granted, sometimes it is forced on the team because of injuries, but more and more teams find the 1A/1B model is superior over the traditional starter/back-up model, where the backup is lucky to get 20 games per season.

Last year, only 7 goalies played more than 60 games all season and most weren't what I would call successful.
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:21 PM   #9334
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For a backup solution, getting a Talbot or McE for a 3rd or 4th would go a great insurance policy.

Waste of a pick (I can't imagine you re-sign Talbot or similar) if you don't play him, but even after his much improved play in vs Washington and SJ... you're not winning a series with Smith in net. We've had the stumble, now we get to see the rebound tonight ahead of the TDL. Going to be pretty clear before the TDL whether Rittich is going to need some help... or if he's the #1 that we can ride in the postseason.
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:23 PM   #9335
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For a backup solution, getting a Talbot or McE for a 3rd or 4th would go a great insurance policy.

Waste of a pick (I can't imagine you re-sign Talbot or similar) if you don't play him, but even after his much improved play in vs Washington and SJ... you're not winning a series with Smith in net. We've had the stumble, now we get to see the rebound tonight ahead of the TDL. Going to be pretty clear before the TDL whether Rittich is going to need some help... or if he's the #1 that we can ride in the postseason.
Would Edmonton even trade him to us?
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:24 PM   #9336
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Would Edmonton even trade him to us?
Definitely not, but I would imagine a 3-way would be pretty easy to make happen for someone like Cam.

Talbot to Ottawa for Ottawa's 4th
Talbot to Calgary for Calgary's 3rd

kinda thing

But Talbot is the name I keep coming back to. I think he's a good goalie, I think he could be an incredible 1B this year for us... if he doesn't work we let him walk, but if he works... we have a good problem to be sorting out.

Gonna be pretty cheap to get the shamed backup out of the butthole of the NHL I'd think too.

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Old 02-09-2019, 02:28 PM   #9337
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Definitely not, but I would imagine a 3-way would be pretty easy to make happen for someone like Cam.

Talbot to Ottawa for Ottawa's 4th
Talbot to Calgary for Calgary's 3rd

kinda thing

But Talbot is the name I keep coming back to. I think he's a good goalie, I think he could be an incredible 1B this year for us... if he doesn't work we let him walk, but if he works... we have a good problem to be sorting out.

Gonna be pretty cheap to get the shamed backup out of the butthole of the NHL I'd think too.
Would any GM really want to burn the trading with Edmonton bridge though? Who knows when the next one 1st overall goes up for trade.
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:32 PM   #9338
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Would any GM really want to burn the trading with Edmonton bridge though? Who knows when the next one 1st overall goes up for trade.
Looking at their roster, Edmonton won't be trading from a position of power any time soon.

If Edmonton wants to burn a bridge over their backup, that'll hurt them a lot more than it'll hurt the other party I'd think. I also don't think any GM would get much mileage trying to burn a bridge over a re-trade either though.
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Old 02-09-2019, 03:20 PM   #9339
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No I'm good if they want to go big, as long as the prices are decent. If they're too high I don't mind a second tier guy for the forward group (Zucharello), and some defensive depth.

I just don't think goaltending is the place to fortify at this year's deadline.
What's a decent price in your mind, haven't seen much in the way of proposals from you I don't think.
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Old 02-09-2019, 03:49 PM   #9340
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I’ve been saying this for a while, but after his performance today vs the Jets, it’s settled for me. The Flames should go after Anders Nilsson. Cost shouldn’t be too high based on what he was traded for earlier in the season.

He’s big, tracks the puck well and has good reflexes for a big man. On a good team like the Flames he could really reach his potential. He inspires confidence that I don’t seem to get from Smith. Do it Tre!


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