Calgarypuck Mafia Game Thread

[WinnipegFan]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Sorry just looking at the recent developments.

Off the top of my head, I’m not the biggest fan. We have 0 chance of banning the Oiler that way, and we don’t get a card flip so we could basically be running in circles tomorrow. Our goal is to ban the Oilers, doesn’t matter if we’re the ones alive at the end or not. Win as a team dead or alive.

My understanding is we will lose one town at night leaving 5 town and 1 oiler. We lose tonights chance at the oiler but overall we still have the numbers..... so what is the loss exactly? We are not convinced of tonight show is flipping a town better?

Why do you care what I say? I didn’t ruin your precious tie vote, did I? If I could sacrifice myself so the rest of the town can get farther, I would, but it’s not going to win our game.

[WinnipegFan]

If we are wrong the numbers are 4 town 1 oiler??? How is that better?

[mrkajz44]

The tie makes sense if you think neither devo nor DropIt are Oilers and then its better not to kill a Flames fan. I believe DropIt to be a Flames fan, but have misgivings on Devo - so no tie I think is ultimately best from my standpoint.

[WinnipegFan]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Why do you care what I say? I didn’t ruin your precious tie vote, did I? If I could sacrifice myself so the rest of the town can get farther, I would, but it’s not going to win our game.

Ok then vote for yourself and I will move over and we can all see if this as ridiculous as I think it is. You are throwing straws here. If I didn't still believe a tie was better Iwould be voting for you right now.

[Hockeyguy15]

If we don’t ban anyone today we don’t get to see their flip. So basically what happens today cannot be looked at with that info, we stay in the same spot. Yes there will be a night ban but you’re letting the Oilers dictate the game, you only get the info they want you to have.

We could win tonight if we flip the right person, but if we flip nobody, we don’t have any chance at winning tonight, right?

[WinnipegFan]

Then convince Pux to vote. She is here and can easily break the tie, it was going DropIt otherwise.

[WinnipegFan]

Pux if you believe this and you believe Mrk it is easy vote devo and we can remove the tie.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Is there not only on Oiler left??? So we out number them no matter what. If we get a day and see who is night killed I would hope we can use that with all the talk today to try and piece something together. Rather than vote either of two people out who we are currently not convinced of....

Yes, there's 6 flames and 1 oiler.

But if we tie, its 5 and 1, then if we lynch and there's a night kill its 3 and 1 then if we lynch and night kill again and we are wrong, the games over at 2 players left.

If we dont tie, there's 4 flames, 1 oiler. Then again is 2 flames one oiler.

While the number of flames fans is up, the percentage of finding the oiler fan technically drops. If our last day has 4 players rather than 3, it's a 25% chance of nabbing the oiler fan, while he has a 75% chance at winning. If there are 3 players left, he gets no night kill so he has the same 33/66% chance as the rest.

Like I said, I think the only way to push the tie is of we tie again once more the skew the numbers back and hope the night kills provide us information

[WinnipegFan]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

We could win tonight if we flip the right person, but if we flip nobody, we don’t have any chance at winning tonight, right?

You have all these arguments but threw away your vote on me, take a stand that matters. I did.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Then convince Pux to vote. She is here and can easily break the tie, it was going DropIt otherwise.

This is actually not an unreasonable request - Pux is here but refused to break the tie. Is this because she thinks neither are Oilers? Strong enough that she wants a tie?

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

If we are wrong the numbers are 4 town 1 oiler??? How is that better?

Because then the final day is 3 players rather than 4. You're thinking # of Flames vs # Oilers but it's actually #of unknown players for the Oilers to hide in

[WinnipegFan]

Gents Pux is literally wasting our time, I will move to her, If DropIt, HG, and mark will move we remove the tie scenario and I will see if my hunch is right. I vow that if we get to this same point on the next day and I am wrong I'll fall on the sword for this call. But her play at the end here is very telling.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Gents Pux is literally wasting our time, I will move to her, If DropIt, HG, and mark will move we remove the tie scenario and I will see if my hunch is right. I vow that if we get to this same point on the next day and I am wrong I'll fall on the sword for this call. But her play at the end here is very telling.

I mean, I'm in. But I still stand by my word on self voting to break a tie... I just dont think the math is there for a tie

[mrkajz44]

I'm not a fan of Pux right now, but I don't think she is Oilers - I cannot commit to that plan.

[WinnipegFan]

Ok DropIt if your going to self vote then lets give this a shot and see if the others join, its no lose for you.

[DropIt]

Unvote:devo22

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Gents Pux is literally wasting our time, I will move to her, If DropIt, HG, and mark will move we remove the tie scenario and I will see if my hunch is right. I vow that if we get to this same point on the next day and I am wrong I'll fall on the sword for this call. But her play at the end here is very telling.

This is how GGG was before his death. And we know how he flipped. I’ll stay.

[WinnipegFan]

mark you are not going to get the one you think is suspicious killed right now either way, the choice is Pux or DropIt