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Old 02-05-2019, 01:44 PM   #121
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Seems like a brutal deal but for the most part many elite superstars signed 5 year deals out of elc. Crosby, Malkin, Towes, Kane, Stamkos all signed 5 year deals out of elc.
Yeah but it’s the leafs and their GM is young so obviously a bunch of forum readers know better.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:46 PM   #122
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Per @CapFriendly, if cap is $83 million next year, Leafs will have $11,094,301 in cap space with just 14 guys under contract and RFAs Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson to sign. Should be INTERESTING.

Plus $5.3M in Horton's LTIR, so $16.394M.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:51 PM   #123
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Absurd. He's RFA, so they effectively lost four first round picks on top of that AAV. If a guy thinks his value is that high, make him get the offer sheet to prove it.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:57 PM   #124
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The irony is that this is exactly the kind of contract the league envisoned when the cap was introduced in 2005. They figured nobody would sign deals longer than 3-5 years as players would want short contracts so they could easily sign for more money as the cap rose. Only took 14 years for a big name player to live up to that expectation.
Credit Darryl for being way ahead of the curve with this one.

The dollar amount rarely hurts you. The term almost always does.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:06 PM   #125
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I honestly wouldn’t mind doing something similar with tkachuk. Our realistic window is not going to last more than 5-6 years tops. So trading off term for a more manageable cap hit might make sense.
Treliving is not going to give Tkachuk anything close to 11+ million and I highly doubt it's be 5 years, 3 years x $6m or 7 years x $8m is more likely.

As for the Matthews contract, the negotiation went like this:

Dubas - Lets talk contract

Matthews - I'll bring the lube and you bend over

Edit, LOL, Matthews gets $15.2 million in bonus money the next 2 July 1st's

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Old 02-05-2019, 02:09 PM   #126
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Not sure why anyone is surprised by this deal. All the pundits agreed it would set a new benchmark. The league is changing, and changing fast.

The interesting thing with this deal is the term. Pretty clear Matthews doesn't plan to stick around in Canada for long.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:26 PM   #127
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Proven superstars deserve their contracts. This is a fine contract; only thing to ask for would be longer term. Overpaying a superstar by ~1M is nothing to fuss over. The biggest wastes of money are good but not great guys in the 5M-7M range.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:31 PM   #128
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@THNMattLarkin
Per @CapFriendly, if cap is $83 million next year, Leafs will have $11,094,301 in cap space with just 14 guys under contract and RFAs Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson to sign. Should be INTERESTING.

Plus $5.3M in Horton's LTIR, so $16.394M.
Is anyone going to want that Marleau deal? Getting that off the books would be a huge move for the leafs. @
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:32 PM   #129
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His deal includes a NMC in the final year so it's possible the Leafs won't even be able to recoup draft picks/prospects if he's undecided on remaining in Toronto.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:36 PM   #130
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Big money for a guy who never hit 70 points. Dubas inexperience has showed in the Nylander and Matthews contracts. I like it! Marner get same as Matthews
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:36 PM   #131
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Why do I have this horrible feeling...that Toronto is going to find a way to weasel out of a bad contract like the Hawks did...
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:47 PM   #132
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Why do I have this horrible feeling...that Toronto is going to find a way to weasel out of a bad contract like the Hawks did...
Lupul island?
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:51 PM   #133
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His deal includes a NMC in the final year so it's possible the Leafs won't even be able to recoup draft picks/prospects if he's undecided on remaining in Toronto.
So it's the Stamkos/Tavares deal, but with no team discount for the incredible amount of control the player now has over the future of the team.

Judging by this contract, I'm almost hoping for a 2/3 year bridge for Tkachuk in the low to mid 6 range. Ideally 3 years to match up to Gaudreau's contract
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:53 PM   #134
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A few things...

1) I think the 5-year term is good for the team, and I suggested in the Tkachuk thread that 5 years could well be the way they go. I continue to believe it will be what they do.

2) From a player's perspective, I understand the allure of a shorter term, and it isn't about bolting to another destination, it is about being a free agent at 26 and being able to sign a max term, max dollar deal. Being a FA at 26 is completely different than being a FA at 29 or 30. At 30 (and higher) teams are very leery of too much term. But at 26? "Give him what he wants!" Also, there appears to be a strong expectation that contracts will continue to rise rapidly.

3) Comparing his contract to McDavid's, McDavid got $100M over 8 years. Matthews is getting $58.17M over 5 years. So to catch up, he needs $41.83M over those final 3 years, or at least $13.95M per, in order to be ahead, which he probably will be able to get as a FA. But that doesn't factor in that getting money now is much more valuable that getting it 6 years from now. So to factor that in, Matthews probably needs at least $15M per year on his next deal to make the shorter term of this one worthwhile (which is entirely possible).

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Old 02-05-2019, 02:56 PM   #135
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What was the rush? Leafs gave up the money but didn't get the term...I think media pressure is getting to the GM
No kidding. We aren't the only ones doing the math. Everyone knew that they're were going to re-sign Matthews whatever it took. But he created a ton of uncertainty and insecurity for all the other unsigned players on a year where they want to make a Cup run. Just don't see any benefit to ending negotiations and doing this now.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:58 PM   #136
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Horrible for Toronto. Paying him 95% of McDavid’s AAV, but 3 years less on the term?

A 5yr term should have come in around 10M for Matthews.
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:06 PM   #137
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Is anyone going to want that Marleau deal? Getting that off the books would be a huge move for the leafs. @
The Marleau deal was weird when they signed it. They knew all these contracts were coming up. He's produced pretty much exactly what you'd expect based on his last years in San Jose.

The Zaitsev one is the one they'd be dying to get out of, but lasts forever so can't believe anyone would want it.

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Old 02-05-2019, 03:09 PM   #138
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Horrible for Toronto. Paying him 95% of McDavid’s AAV, but 3 years less on the term?

A 5yr term should have come in around 10M for Matthews.
Well, 88%, but math is hard.
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:10 PM   #139
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well, 88%, but math is hard.
93.1%?
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:10 PM   #140
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This does seem to signify that the amount of discount on the RFA years isn't what it once was.

When Monahan got the expensive deal for 7 years term, I thought the Flames didn't get anywhere near the value out of the deal that Colorado did with MacKinnon, Barkov in Florida, or Winnipeg with Schiefele. But given where younger player contracts are going, I'm really happy now to have Monahan for that 7th year at 6.375 per year.

It's getting to be a really young game up front, and this likely is going to jump the price on second contracts even more now for forwards.
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