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Old 02-04-2019, 02:00 PM   #1101
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Why not try Gillies? Couldn't be worse than Smith...
Yes. Yes, it could.

It's been touched on by a few posters but there are good reasons for why the Flames do not recall Jon Gillies while they still have two healthy goalies on the NHL roster.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:00 PM   #1102
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Why not try Gillies? Couldn't be worse than Smith. Sure his AHL numbers aren't great but who knows what could happen behind a real NHL defence. And no last year was not our full lineup he played behind. If we are in a position to throw away points with Smith, why not give Gillies a chance then. There's no commitment to Smith past this year. Plus Smith can mentor Gillies like he's done with Rittich
Yes he could but that's not why you dont go to him.

Chances are pretty good that a guy struggling at the AHL level isnt going to do much better here. In fact chances are he will indeed be worse, which would likely destroy him for good if he was to get shelled. If management still thinks of him as part of the future, and who knows maybe they don't, then you simply don't gamble wrecking him so he can play a few games instead of a different guy who might lose. Risk management to a degree if you will.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:02 PM   #1103
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Handcuffed?

He might play 10 more games in Calgary....ever. Probably more like 8.
Like this, or similar
Fla
Ari
Ott
NJ
Ari
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:08 PM   #1104
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Yes he could but that's not why you dont go to him.

Chances are pretty good that a guy struggling at the AHL level isnt going to do much better here. In fact chances are he will indeed be worse, which would likely destroy him for good if he was to get shelled. If management still thinks of him as part of the future, and who knows maybe they don't, then you simply don't gamble wrecking him so he can play a few games instead of a different guy who might lose. Risk management to a degree if you will.
Yeah those are good points. But at the same time, eventually you'll have to see what he's capable of if you're management to determine if he's going to be in the future plans. They're throwing away points with Smith, why not try something else. If you lose, you lose. Doesn't change that fact whether it's Smith or Gillies in net.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:09 PM   #1105
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Yeah this isn't the thing to focus on.

He's a backup on an expiring contract and the team has a healthy lead in the division. Don't waste your assets on an insurance policy.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:11 PM   #1106
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Yeah this isn't the thing to focus on..
One of the worst goalies on one of the best teams is something to focus on IMO.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:27 PM   #1107
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I'd gladly give up a 3rd round pick or a similar asset to have a capable backup for the remainder of the season, even if they didn't play a single game here.

It's not regular season placement or our lead on the division I'm worried about, it's playoffs and what happens if Rittich gets injured. Can't just treat this so casually or say "well, what team isn't screwed without their starter."
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:30 PM   #1108
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Yeah this isn't the thing to focus on.

He's a backup on an expiring contract and the team has a healthy lead in the division. Don't waste your assets on an insurance policy.
Cliff Fletcher says hi. And he had a lot more established goalie than David Rittich on the roster.

It all depends on the acquisition price.
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:26 PM   #1109
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TB's backup Louis Domingue

21 games 2.95 GAA .906 SV%

Smith

26 games 3.08 GAA .889 SV%

Is there really that much difference considering each guy will likely play 10 more times all year at the most? 1 more goal over the course of 10 games is the difference.
1 more goal per 10 games?

If Smith had faced the same 662 shots as Domingue, with the same 0.889 sv%, he would have let in 73 goals in comparison to Dominques 62 goals. That's 11 more goals in those 21GP, or an extra goal against every other game.

Switch Dominque and Smith around, keep the same GP, sv% and shots against, and we'd go from +45 to +57 goal differential, while TB goes from +59 to +48.

In other words, most likely we'd be ahead of them.

Backups make a huge difference over the season.
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:42 PM   #1110
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1 more goal per 10 games?

If Smith had faced the same 662 shots as Domingue, with the same 0.889 sv%, he would have let in 73 goals in comparison to Dominques 62 goals. That's 11 more goals in those 21GP, or an extra goal against every other game.

Switch Dominque and Smith around, keep the same GP, sv% and shots against, and we'd go from +45 to +57 goal differential, while TB goes from +59 to +48.

In other words, most likely we'd be ahead of them.

Backups make a huge difference over the season.

We have 30 games left. Not a season.

Using their current GAA and if they both play 10 more times....its 1 goal difference, yes or no?

Thats all i said...but knock yourself out with the whole if they were on different teams narrative.
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:43 PM   #1111
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Yeah this isn't the thing to focus on.

He's a backup on an expiring contract and the team has a healthy lead in the division. Don't waste your assets on an insurance policy.
What's the thing to focus on?
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:48 PM   #1112
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What's the thing to focus on?
Kicking ass and taking names
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:49 PM   #1113
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If the starter gets injured what team isn't pretty much screwed?
A lot of them.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:03 PM   #1114
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A lot of them.
But not Calgary's biggest obstacles:

Jets
Preds
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:06 PM   #1115
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We have 30 games left. Not a season.

Using their current GAA and if they both play 10 more times....its 1 goal difference, yes or no?

Thats all i said...but knock yourself out with the whole if they were on different teams narrative.
You realize they play on different teams, right? TB allows more shots against per game, hence the GAA difference is smaller than the actual difference of the goalies.

Also, you might notice Smith and Rittich have combined for 57 starts. That means we've had a goalie change four times this season. When a goalie gets pulled and another is put in, that significantly drops the GAA for both goalies.

It's just one more reason why GAA is a really dumb stat. Fun, but dumb. It should never be used to compare goalies on different teams, just like you shouldn't use +/- to compare players on different teams.

If you're asking how.much difference a different backup goalie would make for the Flames, and your comparison point is Dominque, the answer is about one goal every other game.

EDIT: here's yet one more way to put it.

Smith allows 17 extra goals per 1000 shots in comparison to Dominique, or about one extra goal every 59 shots. Flames allow 29.2 shots per game.

If Smith plays for 12 more games, that's 350 shots against, and extra 6 goals against.

Is it enough of a difference to be worth getting a different backup? Maybe not.

But it's still an extra goal against about every other game, not 1 goal per 10 games.

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Old 02-04-2019, 04:14 PM   #1116
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A lot of them.
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Originally Posted by Flash Walken View Post
But not Calgary's biggest obstacles:

Jets
Preds
The Preds have two good goalies (not by trading for one though). So do the Isles, Pens, Stars, Bruins. I wouldn't count the Jets yet though. Brossoit has good % stats but not very many games. He could tumble if he is forced into the role, like Rittich did last year.

But like was said before, the Sharks, Knights are in huge trouble if their number one goes down. So is Montreal, Toronto, TB, Wild, and Caps. I'd say the jackets but Bob is just as bad as Korpisalo this year.

But more than that - what backup is (a) available and (b) would give the Flames a really good chance if Rittich goes down?
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:18 PM   #1117
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The Preds have two good goalies (not by trading for one though). So do the Isles, Pens, Stars, Bruins. I wouldn't count the Jets yet though. Brossoit has good % stats but not very many games. He could tumble if he is forced into the role, like Rittich did last year.

But like was said before, the Sharks, Knights are in huge trouble if their number one goes down. So is Montreal, Toronto, TB, Wild, and Caps. I'd say the jackets but Bob is just as bad as Korpisalo this year.
I think you can also put SJ into the same boat. Unlike the Flames they have two bad goalies—not just one. Martin Jones has been their best option this season, and he is rocking a gaudy 0.896 SP.

Jones's struggles this year remind me of how Cam Talbot has deteriorated, and it makes me wonder about the long-term effects of fatigue on goalies. He has played +70-games every year since becoming a starter between regular season and playoff appearances: could the accumulation of long seasons and tonnes of starts have caught up to him?
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:24 PM   #1118
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But not Calgary's biggest obstacles:

Jets
Preds
Brossoit is having a great season for a backup, but he has faced exactly three teams presently sitting in a playoff spot:

Vegas (Won, but Vegas is still only 24th in shooting percentage this season, while 11 of the 12 best SH% teams sit in a playoff spot)
Canucks (But the Canucks have no business being in a playoff spot - they are on pace for 85 pts)
Calgary (Loss, got royally lit up)

If the Hellebuyck gets hurt, the Jets are definitely nervous about Brossoit against actual playoff teams, even Vegas who beat a better Jets team with Hellebuyck and Stastny last year.


Let's contrast that with Smith, bad as he has been he has picked up points against:

Vancouver (who still have no business being in a playoff spot but eh)
Nashville x 2
Boston
Washington
Toronto
Columbus
Minnesota (who also have no business being in a playoff spot, on pace for 88 pts)

he's also faced Pittsburgh, Montreal, San Jose.

He just hasn't been as sheltered as Brossoit in terms of starts. We know what have in Mike Smith, Jets have no clue what they really have in Brossoit.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:30 PM   #1119
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I think you can also put SJ into the same boat. Unlike the Flames they have two bad goalies—not just one. Martin Jones has been their best option this season, and he is rocking a gaudy 0.896 SP.

Jones's struggles this year remind me of how Cam Talbot has deteriorated, and it makes me wonder about the long-term effects of fatigue on goalies. He has played +70-games every year since becoming a starter between regular season and playoff appearances: could the accumulation of long seasons and tonnes of starts have caught up to him?
This sounds like a compelling argument for having a competent and trustworthy backup who can spell your starter...which the Flames do not have. So now for both short and long term it appears quite important that they upgrade the position.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:36 PM   #1120
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This sounds like a compelling argument for having a competent and trustworthy backup who can spell your starter...which the Flames do not have...
How many starts do you imagine that Rittich will get this year? He could only get to 60 if he plays every single one of the remaining 29-games.

Yes, the Flames will need a better solution in goal next year, but for the remainder of this season they can manage the balance of games and the playoffs under the current rotation, which will likely see Rittich play 20 of what's left, regardless of whether or not Mike Smith is still his backup.

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So now for both short and long term it appears quite important that they upgrade the position.
No.

· Three back-to-backs (@NYI+@NJD; @VGK+@Arz; v.NYR+@Wpg)
· Seven more games v. sub-.500 teams (@Fla, v.Arz, v.Anh, @Ott, v.Ott, v.LAK, v.Anh)
· Three more games in April when the team is likely icing a non-playoff roster (@LAK, @Anh, v.Edm).

That's thirteen games in which Mike Smith is a good bet to win.
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