2018/2019 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Gaudreau is a Ninja]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Doubt it.
It is a late first, a prospect with limited ceiling and a vet who is probably now overpaid. At least that's how I would look at it if I was the Sens.

I think more like
2019 1st
Jankowski
Dube

I further imagine any trade talks with the Flames, involving good players, starts with teams asking for one of Valimaki, Andersson or Kylington. And they probably start with Juuso and then say they would settle for Kylington.

2019 1st
Kylington
Dube

Do people do that? Because I bet that's closer to what it will take.

Our 1st, Kylington, and Dube for a rental!? No way Tre would do that, thank goodness

[btimbit]

That's the likely price.

As much as it's a lot to give up, if they truly thought they could shed some salary and sign him long tern I would do it

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Doubt it.
It is a late first, a prospect with limited ceiling and a vet who is probably now overpaid. At least that's how I would look at it if I was the Sens.

I think more like
2019 1st
Jankowski
Dube

I further imagine any trade talks with the Flames, involving good players, starts with teams asking for one of Valimaki, Andersson or Kylington. And they probably start with Juuso and then say they would settle for Kylington.

2019 1st
Kylington
Dube

Do people do that? Because I bet that's closer to what it will take.

if you can sign him, then i think i'd do it...

love kylington's potential, but trades only work if you give up something you don't want to lose and the expansion draft is going to become something that needs to be addressed...And even though Dube plays a different position, Stone locks up a forward spot for the next 5-6 years (if signed)...

in the last 5 years, Stone has 292 points on a 0.869 pt/gm pace... as a comparison, Monahan has 309 points on an 0.833 pt/gm pace

The cap is the biggest issue...and whether or not that's 'enough' for Ottawa. That would be the limit for me personally

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Doubt it.
It is a late first, a prospect with limited ceiling and a vet who is probably now overpaid. At least that's how I would look at it if I was the Sens.

I think more like
2019 1st
Jankowski
Dube

I further imagine any trade talks with the Flames, involving good players, starts with teams asking for one of Valimaki, Andersson or Kylington. And they probably start with Juuso and then say they would settle for Kylington.

2019 1st
Kylington
Dube

Do people do that? Because I bet that's closer to what it will take.

I do that if Tre expects he can shuffle things around enough to extend him. As a rental? No.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by keenan87

There is a way, you just don't choose to either acknowledge or like it. Frolik+1st+Dube for Stone at 8.0 mil means that the Flames need to come up with 3.3 million.

The Flames should trade TJ Brodie in the off-season for 1st+A-level Prospect to re-coupe some of the traded picks. This trade means that the Flames have made more than even on the trade for Mark Stone. (8.0 - 4.65 - 4.3 = ~1.0 mil). The Flames don't need that extra 1.0 mil for replacement because they should have: Giordano, Hanifin, Hamonic, Andersson, Stone, Kylington

An increase in salary cap of 3.5 million dollars+Tkachuk's current salary+old buyouts coming off the books + savings from Stone and Brodie transaction = 6.2 million. I think he will be paid 7.5 million and that means the Flames need to come up with 1.3 million.

Then,

1.3 million + 500k for Bennet's increase + 2.2 mil Rittich increase + 1.0 million back-up = 5.8 million

Smith Salary (4.25 mil) coming off the books means that the Flames need to come up with 1.5 million dollars. The Flames currently have 1.3 million in cap space, which means that they only need to come up with $0.2 million dollars.

This can be accomplished by replacing Czarnik with Foo/Mangiapane/Phillips/Quine (500k)..

Keep in mind, I didn't even trade Michael Stone (3.5 mil) in all of this because Mark would probably sign to play with him. I have also kept James Neal on the roster because it is unlikely he will get traded. That is an additional ~9.0 million dollars that can be potentially cleared up. Additional cap space can also come from signing Tkachuk to a bridge deal.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backlund-Stone
Bennett-Jankowski-Neal
AHL Player-Ryan-AHL Player

Giordano-Kylington
Hanifin-Hamonic
Valimaki-Andersson

Rittich
Backup

*realistic scenario

That all sounds great, but its extremely hypothetical and the value your assuming people sign at is a HUGE guess at this point.

• Tkachuk wont be bridged, he's going to get north of 7.5 we'll assume.
• Bennett is going to make more than 1.9, you're assuming 2.5 gets it done.
• Rittich is going to make 2.2M for how long? Given his stat line so far and the contracts that have been signed its likely he comes up north of 3-3.5
• A backup goalie for less than 1M? Who are you assuming we'll get that is steady and experienced enough to win games as a backup for that cheap? What if Rittich gets hurt, then what? We're completely up against the cap.

You then assume we'll be able to trade Brodie for nothing but assets (no NHL contracts in return).
Trading Stone & Neal doesn't net you 9M in cap space, because you're not going to trade them without taking on a huge contract in return. Nobody is going to take this years James Neal for nothing.

Any of us could blow 1/4 of the team up and make the dollars work, its just not plausible because its not realistically going to happen. Trust me, I like Mark Stone as much as the next guy, but to assume we'll get stone by giving up (25-30th pick 1st, Dube and Frolik is not realistic to begin with), were then going to sign him to an 8M contract, trade away Brodie, maybe Neal etc to make it work and get Rittich, Bennett and Tkachuk to also sign low value/bridge deals just to bring on Stone is a pretty far reach.

I'm still on the near impossible to happen, but I'd hope for a miracle such as yours as well. We'd be a better team for sure today then we are right now, its just a LOT to give up for 1 guy that may or may not make us contenders.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Royle9

*realistic scenario

That all sounds great, but its extremely hypothetical and the value your assuming people sign at is a HUGE guess at this point.

• Tkachuk wont be bridged, he's going to get north of 7.5 we'll assume.
• Bennett is going to make more than 1.9, you're assuming 2.5 gets it done.
• Rittich is going to make 2.2M for how long? Given his stat line so far and the contracts that have been signed its likely he comes up north of 3-3.5
• A backup goalie for less than 1M? Who are you assuming we'll get that is steady and experienced enough to win games as a backup for that cheap? What if Rittich gets hurt, then what? We're completely up against the cap.

You then assume we'll be able to trade Brodie for nothing but assets (no NHL contracts in return).
Trading Stone & Neal doesn't net you 9M in cap space, because you're not going to trade them without taking on a huge contract in return. Nobody is going to take this years James Neal for nothing.

Any of us could blow 1/4 of the team up and make the dollars work, its just not plausible because its not realistically going to happen. Trust me, I like Mark Stone as much as the next guy, but to assume we'll get stone by giving up (25-30th pick 1st, Dube and Frolik is not realistic to begin with), were then going to sign him to an 8M contract, trade away Brodie, maybe Neal etc to make it work and get Rittich, Bennett and Tkachuk to also sign low value/bridge deals just to bring on Stone is a pretty far reach.

I'm still on the near impossible to happen, but I'd hope for a miracle such as yours as well. We'd be a better team for sure today then we are right now, its just a LOT to give up for 1 guy that may or may not make us contenders.

I suspect you are wrong about Tkachuk's contract. And you are also misreading what was said - he said Rittich gets a 2.2 increase (meaning 3M). BTW, check out the backup salaries around the league. There are a few under $1M. Ullmark, Korpisalo, McBackup, Brossoit, Sparks...

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

if you can sign him, then i think i'd do it...

love kylington's potential, but trades only work if you give up something you don't want to lose and the expansion draft is going to become something that needs to be addressed...And even though Dube plays a different position, Stone locks up a forward spot for the next 5-6 years (if signed)...

in the last 5 years, Stone has 292 points on a 0.869 pt/gm pace... as a comparison, Monahan has 309 points on an 0.833 pt/gm pace

The cap is the biggest issue...and whether or not that's 'enough' for Ottawa. That would be the limit for me personally

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we were able to sign Stone to an extension, and also extend Tkatchuk for the offseason, wouldn't we have the same problem come expansion time, except on forwards?

Monahan, Lindholm, Gaudreau, Tkatchuk, Stone. Which four of those do you protect?

I guess you can go 5 forwards and 3 dmen, but then you expose one of the dmen you don't want to lose.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we were able to sign Stone to an extension, and also extend Tkatchuk for the offseason, wouldn't we have the same problem come expansion time, except on forwards?

Monahan, Lindholm, Gaudreau, Tkatchuk, Stone. Which four of those do you protect?

I guess you can go 5 forwards and 3 dmen, but then you expose one of the dmen you don't want to lose.

there is the 8 skater option, but also the 7-3-1 option

so Monahan, Gaudreau Tkachuk Lindholm, Stone, Backlund and Bennett... the three DMen i would protect would be Hanifin, Vilamaki and Andersson/Gio.... the latter one is tricky because i would like to keep Gio a lifetime flame. This presumes either Brodie or Hamonic are traded for prospects as well, due to their contracts coming up at the same time as the expansion draft

[Mattman]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

there is the 8 skater option, but also the 7-3-1 option

so Monahan, Gaudreau Tkachuk Lindholm, Stone, Backlund and Bennett... the three DMen i would protect would be Hanifin, Vilamaki and Andersson/Gio.... the latter one is tricky because i would like to keep Gio a lifetime flame.

Would teams want to take a 37 year old Giordano over another younger player that they could have for a longer time? I think by this point Gio will be starting to slow down (hopefully not)

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I suspect you are wrong about Tkachuk's contract. And you are also misreading what was said - he said Rittich gets a 2.2 increase (meaning 3M). BTW, check out the backup salaries around the league. There are a few under $1M. Ullmark, Korpisalo, McBackup, Brossoit, Sparks...

I can respect that.

A few, Korpisalo is due for an increase as is McBackup and Brossoit both whom we've had in the past. I wouldnt consider Ullmark or Sparks a long term solution for success.

What do you figure Tkachuks contract will be? It's fair to suspect me for being wrong but please provide your thoughts, I'd like to understand your reasoning behind a different number.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Giordano will be 37 by the time of the draft.

Gaudreau
Monahan
Lindholm
Tkachuk
Backlund
?? (Stone...)
??

Hanifin
Valimaki
Andersson/Kylington

Assuming Brodie and Hamonic aren't around by then.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Mattman

Would teams want to take a 37 year old Giordano over another younger player that they could have for a longer time? I think by this point Gio will be starting to slow down (hopefully not)

yeah, that's the risk... for me, i'd probably lean to protecting Andersson... but it would suck to lose Gio via an expansion draft... which could happen but is dependent on whether his play is being to slide as you suggest

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I can respect that.

A few, Korpisalo is due for an increase as is McBackup and Brossoit both whom we've had in the past. I wouldnt consider Ullmark or Sparks a long term solution for success.

What do you figure Tkachuks contract will be? It's fair to suspect me for being wrong but please provide your thoughts, I'd like to understand your reasoning behind a different number.

Just for visualization this is a quick roughly mock-up of the team he came up with:

Gaudreau (6.75) - Monahan (6.375) - Lindholm (4.85)
Tkachuk (7.5) - Backlund (5.35) - Stone (8)
Bennett (2.5) - Jankowski (1.675) - Neal (5.75)
XXX (1M) - Ryan (3.125) - Czarnik (1.25)
XXX (0.8) XXX (0.8)

Giordano (6.75) - Kylington (0.730)
Hanifin (4.95) - Hamonic (3.86)
Andersson (0.755) - Valimaki (0.894)
Stone (3.5)

Rittich (3)
Gillies (0.75)

Brouwer (1.5)

Total: 82.4M

Moving Brodie for assets seems reasonable. Top 4 on a good, ending contract. No need to take anything back. Frolik getting moved for Stone I see as the bigger problem. Signing Stone for 8M is probably the most difficult, I see him as more as a 10M player if he wants it.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

yeah, that's the risk... for me, i'd probably lean to protecting Andersson... but it would suck to lose Gio via an expansion draft... which could happen but is dependent on whether his play is being to slide as you suggest

Did Vegas take anyone 37+ in their expansion draft? Seems like a bit of a waste to be honest...I.cant see of happening to gamble on a old defebsemsn who is likely to face increasing injury/fatigue concerns.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Giordano will actually be almost 38 with one year left on his contract at 6.75M. Why would a team risk that? No point in protecting him.

[Husky]

Stone is a young 1st line winger. The chance of any of Flanes young D becoming a #1D are remote. If the deal is a 1st plus a young D for an extended Stone - you take it and run laughing.

[Makarov]

If we move Kylington for a rental, I think we will regret (unless of course we win the Cup this season.) And absent moving one of Kylington, Valimaki or Andersson, I just don't see how the Flames have the assets to make a big splash at the trade deadline.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

Did Vegas take anyone 37+ in their expansion draft? Seems like a bit of a waste to be honest...I.cant see of happening to gamble on a old defebsemsn who is likely to face increasing injury/fatigue concerns.

unknown.

but it would be 'culture' move on the part of an expansion franchising wanting to build the program as opposed to necessarily only his on ice performance.

that's a BT question though; i'm just stating what i would do... again, probably lean to protecting your future rather than your past...

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I can respect that.

A few, Korpisalo is due for an increase as is McBackup and Brossoit both whom we've had in the past. I wouldnt consider Ullmark or Sparks a long term solution for success.

What do you figure Tkachuks contract will be? It's fair to suspect me for being wrong but please provide your thoughts, I'd like to understand your reasoning behind a different number.

I think Tkachuk is going to sign for only 6 years at somewhere between 6.7-7.2. I think Treliving prefers a lower cap over the medium term over max terms and I don't know that Tkachuk will see it differently.

Brossiot is due for a raide but I bet, given it's such a small sample size, it's only going to take him to about $1M. McBackup is at the other end of the scale - he's 35. No one is giving him a big contract, and he's never made more than the $850K he makes now. I bet he signs a similar deal for one year somewhere. To his credit he's made a career out of being an affordable guy, and I don't think that changes.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Makarov

If we move Kylington for a rental, I think we will regret (unless of course we win the Cup this season.) And absent moving one of Kylington, Valimaki or Andersson, I just don't see how the Flames have the assets to make a big splash at the trade deadline.

Hanifin, Kylington, Andersson and Valimaki (Not to mention Brodie and Hamonic), something has to give.

One of those guys are gone by the 2021 expansion draft anyways.