[Rumour] Kypreos: Flames 1st round pick is in play

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would do the first, Janko and a prospect
Problem is coming up with a prospect that isn’t Jusso that gets it done
Dube? Boy I’d be tempted
Would rather have it be Foo or Eat Bread

I dont think Foo has much value unfortunately

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Well, the Leafs got a first pairing Dman with term for a late 1st, a B prospect, and an unsigned C prospect.

If that's a sign of anything, it's definitely a buyers market and Calgary's 1st should be able to get something good

I'm not sure Muzzin is a first pairing defenseman. He's solid but if say he's a 3/4 guy. He's a top pairing guy in TO because their group is that weak. Based on my view, a late 1st (which is the Calgary 1st), will need to go with better additions than what the Leafs gave, if the Flames want to get Stone or Duchene, etc.

If Tre finds a deal he likes for the 1st, the player coming back will be a Flame for a while I'd wager.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would do the first, Janko and a prospect
Problem is coming up with a prospect that isn’t Jusso that gets it done
Dube? Boy I’d be tempted
Would rather have it be Foo or Eat Bread

I'd have a hard time liking any trade that involved trading away any of our rookie dmen.

Dube would be a blow too but I'd be more comfortable with that than the other 3.

Mangiapane would be the ideal player to use as trade bait but Foo is not nearly valuable enough.

[Willi Plett]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

I dont think Foo has much value unfortunately

What? The Oilers already tried to get him. Do you know how great he’s going to be on their top line beside McDavid? I think they’d give us big value you back!

[868904]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

I still am hoping for Kreider or Toffoli. Kreider would definitely cost more, but they both have a year left on their deals. Toffoli could be a great buy low opportunity.

Toffoli is a great idea. He's having a bad year, but he can score. A right shot RW, would look good on Backs and Tkachuks' wing. Push Frolik down to the 4th line with Ryan and Hathaway, and that's a great line too.

Toffoli has a year after this and his contract isn't that bad at just under $5 million. You can move Stone and Frolik in the SUmmer for cap space.

Try and also get Clifford as well for say a Czarnik and the forwards should be set.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backs-Toffoli
Bennett-Janko-Neal
Frolik-Ryan-Hathaway
Clifford-Mangiapane extras

If they trade that 1st, I want more than just a UFA.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Flames really can't afford to move that first. Treliving needs to stop bleeding high picks as the situation in the development system is dire. The system is really really thin and needs restocking, and quickly. Valimaki is only in the minors because of his injury. Without him on the farm we really don't have a single defensive prospect that we can consider a future NHLer. The only guy that probably looks like a player with any serious development potential is AOM, and he's not even on a NHL deal. Up front things are similarly as bleak. Dube is our best forward prospect on the farm, and after that we're in the 24-25 year old bubble level players (Foo, Rychel, Lazar, Lomberg). Phillips is available, but has such a long road to go is not even in the conversation at this point. It is sad to say, but we probably have the most prospect depth in net, and that isn't even that good. Trelving has built a really good NHL squad, but he has pretty much gone full Darryl Sutter with the draft picks and has stemmed the flow of quality prospects coming into the system. Flames need a couple big drafts with some early picks to restock the system or we're going to be feeling the pinch in the next couple of seasons as those good young cost controlled players are no longer available to the team.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by New Era

Flames really can't afford to move that first. Treliving needs to stop bleeding high picks as the situation in the development system is dire. The system is really really thin and needs restocking, and quickly. Valimaki is only in the minors because of his injury. Without him on the farm we really don't have a single defensive prospect that we can consider a future NHLer. The only guy that probably looks like a player with any serious development potential is AOM, and he's not even on a NHL deal. Up front things are similarly as bleak. Dube is our best forward prospect on the farm, and after that we're in the 24-25 year old bubble level players (Foo, Rychel, Lazar, Lomberg). Phillips is available, but has such a long road to go is not even in the conversation at this point. It is sad to say, but we probably have the most prospect depth in net, and that isn't even that good. Trelving has built a really good NHL squad, but he has pretty much gone full Darryl Sutter with the draft picks and has stemmed the flow of quality prospects coming into the system. Flames need a couple big drafts with some early picks to restock the system or we're going to be feeling the pinch in the next couple of seasons as those good young cost controlled players are no longer available to the team.

Does this matter within the Gaudreau window?

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by New Era

Byron is a horrible fit. Team is already too small and soft. Need some size and some toughness.

Are you kidding? Paul Star is tougher than guys with 30 lbs and 5 inches on him.

[Bleeding Red]

Originally Posted by New Era

Flames really can't afford to move that first. Treliving needs to stop bleeding high picks as the situation in the development system is dire. The system is really really thin and needs restocking, and quickly. Valimaki is only in the minors because of his injury. Without him on the farm we really don't have a single defensive prospect that we can consider a future NHLer. The only guy that probably looks like a player with any serious development potential is AOM, and he's not even on a NHL deal. Up front things are similarly as bleak. Dube is our best forward prospect on the farm, and after that we're in the 24-25 year old bubble level players (Foo, Rychel, Lazar, Lomberg). Phillips is available, but has such a long road to go is not even in the conversation at this point. It is sad to say, but we probably have the most prospect depth in net, and that isn't even that good. Trelving has built a really good NHL squad, but he has pretty much gone full Darryl Sutter with the draft picks and has stemmed the flow of quality prospects coming into the system. Flames need a couple big drafts with some early picks to restock the system or we're going to be feeling the pinch in the next couple of seasons as those good young cost controlled players are no longer available to the team.

I guess the question is define high/early picks?

If we are talking top 10-15, then that becomes a hard choice. If we are talking 20-30, then personally, I have no trouble with go for it.


TOR media has spent a lot of ink on trying to value the 1st that they gave up for Muzzin. The consensus seems to be that the odds of getting a high end player in that 20-31 pick range is 5-8%, of getting a serviceable NHLer 1/3.



Didn't Bingo do a whole thing on the draft and the odds of drafting an NHLer in each round?

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Are you kidding? Paul Star is tougher than guys with 30 lbs and 5 inches on him.

Byron got injured yesterday as a result of a hit.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by New Era

Flames really can't afford to move that first. Treliving needs to stop bleeding high picks as the situation in the development system is dire. The system is really really thin and needs restocking, and quickly. Valimaki is only in the minors because of his injury. Without him on the farm we really don't have a single defensive prospect that we can consider a future NHLer. The only guy that probably looks like a player with any serious development potential is AOM, and he's not even on a NHL deal. Up front things are similarly as bleak. Dube is our best forward prospect on the farm, and after that we're in the 24-25 year old bubble level players (Foo, Rychel, Lazar, Lomberg). Phillips is available, but has such a long road to go is not even in the conversation at this point. It is sad to say, but we probably have the most prospect depth in net, and that isn't even that good. Trelving has built a really good NHL squad, but he has pretty much gone full Darryl Sutter with the draft picks and has stemmed the flow of quality prospects coming into the system. Flames need a couple big drafts with some early picks to restock the system or we're going to be feeling the pinch in the next couple of seasons as those good young cost controlled players are no longer available to the team.

Welcome to the world of being a contending team.

I understand your unfamiliarity with it, it’s been a long time coming.

Hoarding drafts picks at this stage doesn’t really extend the window, it simply assures that you’ve decreased your chances of winning the Cup. It does increase your chances of of being a “close but no cigar” type of team.

When you get the chance with a really good team, you need to roll the dice and make it better.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Welcome to the world of being a contending team.

I understand your unfamiliarity with it, it’s been a long time coming.

Hoarding drafts picks at this stage doesn’t really extend the window, it simply assures that you’ve decreased your chances of winning the Cup. It does increase your chances of of being a “close but no cigar” type of team.

When you get the chance with a really good team, you need to roll the dice and make it better.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Well said but you still, you need to pick your spots. You can’t go all in every deadline and off season.

[Classic_Sniper]

The way the 2nd PP unit is playing and the way the 3M line finding their chemistry again, I'm not sure getting a big rental is necessary anymore. That player would essentially be relegated as an upgrade on the 3rd line. But even then, would the team be willing to move Neal down to the 4th line?

The late 27-31 draft pick isn't anything exciting, but at this point, a couple smaller additions on the 4th line could be the move to make. Derek Ryan has been excellent as a 4th line center and getting him some help could make a big difference. Keep the pick for now until the draft IMO.

[goflamesgo18]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Well said but you still, you need to pick your spots. You can’t go all in every deadline and off season.

When you've built a strong young core that is set for years, yes you most certainly can. Pittsburgh does it every year and they have 3 cups.

For as long as Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Backlund, Hanifin, Brodie, Giordano, Andersson, Valimaki, Hamonic, (Maybe Rittich) are the core. And as long as they are contenders. That first rounder should be in play every deadline.

[oldschoolcalgary]

while i agree that trading picks is not what i would prefer, it really depends on what you are getting back from it.

if you trade the first for someone who's reasonably young and/or you expect to be on the team for 5-6 years, i don't see it as being as problematic...

while the farm is a bit barren, it is because players are graduating... we have 4 dmen who look like they'll form the nucleus for the team for the next decade... so i don't have any short term concern about dmen on the farm; not in the next couple of years at least.

if you trade for say tiffoli, he's young enough to lock up a roster spot for the next 5-6 years...

development on the farm is important... but if all the spots on the main club are taken, it gives you a bit of time buffer before the next restock cycle comes around...

[Bleeding Red]

Odd thought (and I am sure to be pilloried), but, can one viewpoint also be that though this year's 1st may go and eventually the Flames will want to restock - won't some declining players fetch us 1sts down the line?

Maybe Gio retires a Flame, but at some point in 2-4 years won't a bunch of players be desirable for contending teams to pay a 1st at that deadline?

I don't worry about restocking prospects - we could have 3 firsts again for the 2022 draft.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Welcome to the world of being a contending team.

I understand your unfamiliarity with it, it’s been a long time coming.

Hoarding drafts picks at this stage doesn’t really extend the window, it simply assures that you’ve decreased your chances of winning the Cup. It does increase your chances of of being a “close but no cigar” type of team.

2011 Blackhawks were the defending champs who had just lost a bit of depth due to a cap crunch but still had their core intact. Instead of adding bodies to fill out their depth they hoarded draft picks, in particular Andrew Shaw, Brandon Saad, and Teuvo Teravainen. You don't think those guys extended their cup window? They also had another 1st in 2010, Kevin Hayes @ 24th overall, who might have furthered that window had he not elected to sign in New York as a UFA.

2010 Capitals won the President's Trophy. Instead of a rental they kept their pick. That pick was Evgeni Kuznetsov, their leading scorer in the 2018 playoffs en route to the cup. You don't think they extended their cup window?

2014 Bruins won the President's Trophy. Instead of a rental they also kept their pick. That pick was David Pastrnak, their current leading scorer. Bergeron has had some injuries, but when healthy they have shown an ability to dominate games in every way. You don't think their Cup Window is still open come April? Would it be open without Pastrnak?

I look at the Flames and I see:

A 35 year old #1 left defenseman who does it all.
A 29 year old #2 right defenseman with a year left on his deal.
A 29 year old #3 right defenseman with a year left on his deal
A 22 year old prospect right defenseman who seems to get hemmed in all the time whether he is playing 2nd pair or 3rd.
Three young left D
A looming expansion draft.

So yeah, picking up a RD, for example, in the first round of the draft, could be a difference maker especially if you are not willing to go all in on Rasmus Andersson as a future top pairing right defenseman, and that future rop pairing won't even have Giordano in his prime. That could extend our window, especially if we luck out and our first rounder is a PK Subban or a John Carlson.

[Lanny_McDonald]

@The Cobra

I get your point, but Treliving has gone to an extreme Pittsburgh did not. I get dealing away a player or pick from strength, but the Flames are not in a position of strength at this point. Pittsburgh was very smart with moving their picks, insuring they had a couple picks in the second round to compensate for the loss of the first. Pittsburgh dealt firsts in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. But they did so having multiple picks to restock. Consider that during that period they still picked eight players in the top 100 and six players in the top 60 (one was at 61 for nitpickers). If the Flames deal away the 1st in this draft, that will mean the Flames will have drafted just two players in the top 100 of the last three drafts (Valimaki and an undisclosed player scheduled to be picked in the third round of this draft).

Trelving has done an outstanding job in creating a budget that protects us from becoming the Blackhawks or Kings, where we have a good run, but it is short and back to the basement. I agree, follow the Penguins' approach to remain competitive long term. Deal that first, but stock up those seconds so you still have good players filtering into the system. We haven't, and that gap is going to be very apparent in the next two years, just when we have to resign some big guns and are looking for some cap flexibility those good young players are expected to provide. Consider the loss of Brodie and Hamonic because of cap considerations without having Andersson (2nd), Kylington (2nd), and Valimaki (1st) to backfill them. The situation would be kind of dire and shutter the window quite quickly. Because of these guys, the window is likely extended to the end of Gaudreau's contract, and possibly beyond. Asset management does not cease just because you open a window. Good asset management pretty much extends how long that window is open.

[goflamesgo18]

2008 - Detroit trades 2nd and 4th picks for Brad Stuart and wins cup.
- Penguins Trade 2nd and 5th for Hal Gill, also trade 1st, Armstrong, Christensen, Esposito for Hossa and Dupuis and make SCF.

2009 - Penguins trade 3rd for Bill Guerin, trade 4th, Stone, Sabourin for Garon and wins cup

2011 - Bruins trade 1st, 2nd, Joe Colborne for Kaberle, also trade another 2nd for chris kelly and win cup

2012 - Kings trade Jack Johnson and 1st for Jeff Carter and win cup

2014 - Kings trade 2nd, 3rd, and Frattin for Gaborik and win cup
- Rangers trade Callahan, 1st, 2nd for St.Louis and make SCF

2015 - Hawks trade 1st and Dahlbek for Vermette, also trade 2nd and fourth for Timmonen and win cup
- Lightning trade Gudas, 1st, 3rd for Coburn and make SCF

2016 - Sharks trade two 2nds and Torres for Polak and Spaling and make SCF

2018 - Vegas trades 1st, 2nd, 3rd for Tatar and makes SCF

Just a few of the SCF teams and high draft picks used to make the final. Doesn't always work out but more often than not, one of the SCF teams used their 1st or multiple picks to put them over the edge.

[Firebot]

The Flames have 4 legit NHL defencemen right now that are 22 or under.

The Flames are 2nd in the league and 6 points up on the 2nd team in the western conference.

The rebuild phase is over (only hampered and delayed by 2 years of GG).

Now look at the Flames past history of late 1st round picks (whether they were their own or traded)

2004 Entry 24 1 Kris Chucko
2005 Entry 26 1 Matt Pelech
2006 Entry 26 1 Leland Irving
2007 Entry 24 1 Mikael Backlund
2008 Entry 25 1 Greg Nemisz
2009 Entry 23 1 Tim Erixon
2012 Entry 21 1 Mark Jankowski
2013 Entry 22 1 Emile Poirier
2013 Entry 28 1 Morgan Klimchuk

Only 2 picks out of 9 became true NHLers, and they only did so as late bloomers. Backlund took 6 years to get up to 2nd line center. Jankowski is struggling on the 3rd line 6 years after he was drafted.

The rest of the picks are total busts.
For every Pastarnak or Boeser in the late round and late bloomers like Backlund, there are 8 guys like Klimchuk or Nemisz.

Iginla and Bouwmeester were traded for late first round picks, the Flames have zero to show for those rebuilding trades (even the Rato Berra for a 2nd rounder fleecing was wasted)

Late first round picks are very overrated, if it can give us a Simmonds or similar for a deep playoff push and chance at a cup, you do it. Who cares 5 years down the line when we may not have Gaudreau if we get a 2nd liner out of that 2019 27th pick? I would rather have the cup.