[PGT] Flames barbecue the Wings 6-4

[Iniggywetrust]

We are going to be need both Mike Smith and David Rittich down the stretch. This game is so fluid, what we see now will not be how things are in a month or two. Smith's game is coming around. The weak goals are a killer and probably what stand out to most fans. He has made some timely saves as well.

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[TheoFleury]

I don't want this team to be in a position to NEED Mike Smith for anything. That's just playing with fire. Hopefully Tre can figure something out because this season is special and we need some insurance in net.

[JD]

We can fight about Smith and Neal and Ryan all year long.

But the thing I'm loving this year is the difference in coaching. Bill Peters knows wtf he's doing, clearly. He's a big reason that no matter how much we fall behind or how many times we fall behind in a game, he pushes the right buttons to get the team back on track. He replies to goals against with the right line to answer. He puts our #1 line in good positions to burn the opposition. He follows up SH situations with the right kind of energy. He uses our best faceoff men in key situations. He shortens the bench appropriately seemingly every game. He changes the lines up all game, giving almost every guy a chance to shine at whatever it is they're good at.

And the funniest irony I've seen lately is a lot of news articles attributing Lindholm's explosion this year to better utilization or a better chance. Haha. Geez what was his last coach thinking anyway?

Bill Peters is doing a hulluva job.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Do you have any confidence in Smith winning a game where the Flames don't score 4+ goals? You don't see any reason why a team with Stanley Cup aspirations might want an upgrade on the worst backup in the NHL?

I doubt they do anything until closer to the deadline when teams like Carolina might be out of the race. But if Treliving isn't looking to upgrade the backukp position, he isn't doing his job.

Originally Posted by transplant99

That has been a requirement in 4 games since the middle of November.

No, requiring 4+ goals to win implies Smith giving up 3 or more, which he has done 6 of his last 9 games (since early December) and in 15 of his 25 games overall.

More than 3 - 9 times
Three - 6 times
Less than 3 - 10 times.

And he is only playing the bottom teams anymore.

[Enoch Root]

The good news on the Smith front is that the team is scoring enough runs to get the Ws. And they have continued to win while Rittich has gotten some time off.

Rittich has only played 1 game in the last 8 days, and will only play 7 in January, including only 3 in the last 20 days of January.

This will pay huge dividends later.

[jlh2640]

I will only legit fault one of the goals on Smith, the 5 on 3 and even then he got a piece of it through a screen

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No, requiring 4+ goals to win implies Smith giving up 3 or more, which he has done 6 of his last 9 games (since early December) and in 15 of his 25 games overall.

More than 3 - 9 times
Three - 6 times
Less than 3 - 10 times.

And he is only playing the bottom teams anymore.

In his last 12 games and since a bad loss in the middle of November, here are the goal totals he has given up

1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 5, 3, 3, 4, 1, 4

There was also the BJ's game in that stretch that Smith didnt start.

So 5 times they twice they need 4 and twice 5 and once 6.

Not great as has been said repeatedly, but nor is it that they have to score 5+ every singe game he starts.

This team wins way more with Smith starting games lately than they lose. That can't be debated.

If the team can upgrade him....great!! If not its not the end of the world though either, as they have a very good starter who is going to get the majority of starts from tonight on out anyway.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't want to get in a long winded Smith debate but his .888 SV% ranks 49 out of 50 eligible NHL goaltenders. That's just a horrible, horrible stat for any goaltender that's played 20+ games. You just can't sugar coat it. He's not a very good NHL goaltender anymore. I don't care about his puck handling or the fact he may be a good guy as to me he deserves to be judged exclusively on his play and nothing more and IMO he's one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL.

SV% and shots faced are not mutually exclusive. Smith's had a weak season but the Flames' low shot against totals have also not done his save percentage stats many favours. Guys like Lundqvist have allowed around the same goals against but get more props because they see more shots. But what's to say seeing more shots doesn't keep them sharper or give them more muffins to swallow? Smith's always been a guy who plays his best seeing 35+ shots and it's not necsarily easy playing for a team with such strong shot suppression. I'm not saying Smith has been even decent but sv% doesn't tell the whole story.

[Kasi]

Would you pay a first to get Howard? I wouldn’t after seeing hm last night. Niilson would have been an okay get but I doubt the Canucks would have traded in division. Really the only guy out there I’d be comfortable targeting is McElhinney. Most of the other guys out there are too expensive or not available.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Would you pay a first to get Howard? I wouldn’t after seeing hm last night. Niilson would have been an okay get but I doubt the Canucks would have traded in division. Really the only guy out there I’d be comfortable targeting is McElhinney. Most of the other guys out there are too expensive or not available.

You can't give up a 1st for a rental backup.

Especially for a team that has a young core entering its win now mode, and already has a very depleted prospect pool.

Also, after the break, there are 31 games left. And 4 back-to-backs. You can assume the backup plays in all 4 of those. The first one is NYI-NJD, the 2nd is VGS-ARI, the 3rd is NYR-WPG and the last one is SJS-LAK. Give the backup the highlighted games and you still expect to win them all.

If you also give the backup the home game against ARI in Feb, the home game against LAK in Mar, and the meaningless game against EDM in April, again expecting to win them all, then Rittich would only have to play 24 games in 65 days (69 or 70 days until the playoffs start).

If you look at it that way, how many points would an upgraded backup add? Two at the most, IMO. So the only reason to add a backup is insurance. And you can't give up a 1st for insurance (when you have already traded 2 of your last 3 1sts).

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

...Hopefully management doesn't bury their head in the sand like you're doing. Smith's GAA of over three and save percentage of .888 is incentive enough.

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

The Flames have a legitimate shot at the cup this season but they need a significant upgrade on the back up goalie to do it...

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

I don't want this team to be in a position to NEED Mike Smith for anything. That's just playing with fire. Hopefully Tre can figure something out because this season is special and we need some insurance in net.

I think this is overblown. I suspect everyone is in agreement that winning two of every three games—as Mike Smith has been doing—is all the Flames need from their backup down the stretch. But some posters seem to believe that the Flames "need"—rather urgently—an upgrade in goal for the playoffs. Why? History rather emphatically suggests that teams win on the strength of ONE goalie. Last year Braden Holtby started the playoffs on the bench and then played every game on the way to Washington's first Stanley Cup. Their upstart young starter in Round 1 lost both his games, and did not play again. This is far and away the exception, not the rule. MA Fleury played every one of VGK's games in the playoffs, as did Hellebyuck, as did Vasilevsky, as did Rinne, and on, and on.

The point here is this: an upgrade in goal is probably not practically feasible this season. The Flames fortunes in the playoffs rest rather squarely on however far Rittich can take them. A backup goalie—be it Smith or someone else—is not going to make a difference in the playoffs. Pining for a change is not especially fruitful, nor insightful.

This is not me "sitting on my hands." This is a sober recognition of the situation in which the Flames find themselves. It's not ideal, but it is far from the catastrophe so many here believe it to be.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think this is overblown. I suspect everyone is in agreement that winning two of every three games—as Mike Smith has been doing—is all the Flames need from their backup down the stretch. But some posters seem to believe that the Flames "need"—rather urgently—an upgrade in goal for the playoffs. Why? History rather emphatically suggests that teams win on the strength of ONE goalie. Last year Braden Holtby started the playoffs on the bench and then played every game on the way to Washington's first Stanley Cup. Their upstart young starter in Round 1 lost both his games, and did not play again. This is far and away the exception, not the rule. MA Fleury played every one of VGK's games in the playoffs, as did Hellebyuck, as did Vasilevsky, as did Rinne, and on, and on.



The point here is this: an upgrade in goal is probably not practically feasible this season. The Flames fortunes in the playoffs rest rather squarely on however far Rittich can take them. A backup goalie—be it Smith or someone else—is not going to make a difference in the playoffs. Pining for a change is not especially fruitful, nor insightful.



This is not me "sitting on my hands." This is a sober recognition of the situation in which the Flames find themselves. It's not ideal, but it is far from the catastrophe so many here believe it to be.

Unless Rittich gets injured, in which case we can kiss the rest of the season goodbye.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Unless Rittich gets injured, in which case we can kiss the rest of the season goodbye.

Is it not the case for ANY playoff team who loses their starter?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Unless Rittich gets injured, in which case we can kiss the rest of the season goodbye.

Well, duh. When a team's starting goalie is injured the usual course of action would be to make a trade unless there is a goalie on the farm who can fill the role. That does not address the purpose of my post to illustrate how things are most likely to play out in playoffs, and it does nothing to counter the facts I set out:

· that an upgrade in goal is probably not practically feasible this season.
· that the Flames fortunes in the playoffs rest rather squarely on however far Rittich can take them.
· that a backup goalie—be it Smith or someone else—is not going to make a difference in the playoffs.
· that it's not an ideal situation, but it is far from a catastrophe.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No, requiring 4+ goals to win implies Smith giving up 3 or more, which he has done 6 of his last 9 games (since early December) and in 15 of his 25 games overall.

More than 3 - 9 times
Three - 6 times
Less than 3 - 10 times.

And he is only playing the bottom teams anymore.

It also implies that Rittich, or another backup, let's in less than those three goals. Since not every goal against is Smith's fault, just like any other goalie, that's not an automatic assumption.

Look at the weakest goal last night - the 5 on 3 goal. Does another goalie stop it? Maybe, but then again it was a wide open shot from middle distance in the centre slot. And it was 5 on 3 - any rebound and there's two extra Wings to go for it.

Or maybe another goalie doesn't make the saves that Smith did make - a couple point blank ones, like the double chance near the end of the game. Or doesn't disrupt the dump in like he did numerous times (we've seen Rittich mess those up sometimes).

What I'm saying overall is that just because a Smith win came with 3 goals against doesn't mean that it's not a loss without the Flames scoring 4 in front of any other goalie.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

...What I'm saying overall is that just because a Smith win came with 3 goals against doesn't mean that it's not a loss without the Flames scoring 4 in front of any other goalie.

I think something that is lost in this also is how Rittich has been playing at the Saddledome for the past few weeks. It's really impressive that he has yet to lose a game in regulation at home, but he is benefitting from a lot of that same "run support" that Mike Smith does, especially most recently.

In his last six home starts since the beginning of December:

· TB: 4 GA, OTL, 0.889 SP
· Vancouver: 3 GA, OTL, 0.889 SP
· SJ: 5 GA, W, 0.848 SP
· Colorado, 3 GA, W, 0.914 SP
· Florida, 3 GA, W, 0.889 SP
· Buffalo: 4 GA, OTL, 0.826 SP

That is not a great stat-line, and it appears actually pretty comparable to Mike Smith's. I think this serves to underscore what a lot of us have been seeing for a while now—the Flames have been far too loose in their own zone on home ice for several weeks now. No goalie is going to improve on what either Rittich or Smith has been delivering as of late because that is not where the problem is.

[SportsJunky]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

The Flames have a legitimate shot at the cup this season but they need a significant upgrade on the back up goalie to do it.

The backup goalie spot is what's going to kill their chances of winning the cup? The backup goalie?

[Classic_Sniper]

I wonder if any of the Mike Smith defenders remember Brian Elliott’s performance in the playoffs 2 seasons ago? That’s a similar type of result I could forsee happening with Mike Smith in net. If for whatever reason, he ends up as the only goaltending option available to us, he could just as easily cost the Flames their playoff run like Elliott did.

Teams are targeting a very specific weakness that Mike Smith cannot seem to shore up, the hole between the arms and his body (both sides). He gave up another 2 yesterday through those specific holes, which by my count, has to be around 20 so far this season.

The Flames have to seek high and low for a second option here. In the playoffs and against good teams, Mike Smith’s weakness will only be further exploited. Sure, the Flames are outscoring their problems now, but what happens when scoring decreases significantly in the playoffs when there’s tighter checking and increased usage of the trap? The Flames might not be able to outscore Smith’s blunders.

The good thing is the market for goaltenders doesn’t seem to be that hot and there could be quite a few UFA goaltenders available at the TDL. Perhaps a mid to late pick could nab a Ryan Miller, or a Curtis McElhinney, or even an Anders Nilsson if they’re available. If they want a higher quality second option, then Kinkaid and Howard could also be potential options.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

The backup goalie spot is what's going to kill their chances of winning the cup? The backup goalie?

The back up goaltender could suddenly become the #1 if there’s an injury though. I don’t look at it Smith as the “back up,” I look at him as the second option and I don’t like the idea of him being the potential last line of defense in the playoffs.

Good shooters in the playoffs are going to exploit Mike Smith’s weakness and it’s going to be a lot harder to outscore our problems in the lower scoring playoffs and against good teams.

[Strange Brew]

If you have a starter as unproven as Rittich I think you need a backup for the playoffs that you have some degree of confidence can win a series against a good team. Citing Smith’s win percentage against lower echelon teams is meaningless. He just hasn’t been good.

I’m not convinced a backup goalie from a team out of the playoffs should be that expensive to acquire at the deadline. Not a 1b but an actual backup. And everything we are hearing is that Treliving is looking at just that.