Francis: Flames have started contract talks with Tkachuk and Rittich

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Backlund has scored 47, 53, 45 and is on pace for 45 this year.

Tkachuk is on pace to double Backlund's output this year.

Scoring 90 points on backlund's wing is a huge freakin' accomplishment.

Like, what?

Tkachuk is NOT scoring 90 points on Backlund's wing. He has 35 EV points compared to Backlund's 25. Yes, Tkachuk is a better offensive player than Backlund, but you are portraying Backlund as a stone-handed journeyman. He is not, and it detracts badly from the persuasiveness of your argument when you continue to so egregiously undermine his value.

[blender]

As has been mentioned before by myself and others, a big driver of AAV is term. It is hard to discuss absolute values without taking term into account.

I believe that if necessary Treliving's would sacrifice term to get a more workable cap hit.

There is always angst about these negotiations amongst fans who want to see the best possible outcome for the team they love. There are those who take pessimistic views, and those who dream of hometown discounts, but the reality usually lands in the middle. It will be interesting to see the result.

For the record, I'm calling 6 x 7.5.

[SuperMatt18]

Think you need to more look at recent RFAs post McDavid changing the landscape for your Tkachuk comparisons, the pre-McDavid contracts (Gaudreau, Mackinnon, etc) are tough to use as comparables now.

Here are the biggest RFA contracts since McDavid signed:

McDavid: 8 years @ $12.5M (Coming off a 100 pt season)
Ryan Johansen: 8 years @ $8M (Coming off 61 pt season)
Leon Draisaitl: 8 years @ $8.5M (Coming off 77 pt season)
Pastrnak: 6 years @ $6.6M (Coming off a 70 pt season)
Eichel: 8 years @ $10M (Coming off a 57 pt season -61GP)
Larkin: 5 years @ $6.1M (Coming off a 63 pt season)
Nylander: 6 years at $6.9M (Coming off a 61 pt season)

So yeah I feel like if Tkachuk is 90+ points then we are looking at closer to $8+ than the $7M range for sure.

And really it's going to come down to what the 6 big RFAs this year sign for.

Rantanen: 1.5 PPG
Point: 1.3 PPG
Matthews: 1.3 PPG
Marner: 1.3 PPG
Tkachuk: 1.15 PPG
Aho: 1.1 PPG

First one of those guys to sign probably sets the market for the rest this offseason.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Yes, Tkachuk is a better offensive player than Backlund, but you are portraying Backlund as a stone-handed journeyman. He is not, and it detracts badly from the persuasiveness of your argument when you continue to undermine his value.

I agree.

Jiri Hudler led the NHL in even strength scoring when playing on Backlund's wing. He was out of the league 2 years later.

Acting like Backlund is a big drag on a player's production is ridiculous. Lance Bouma scored 16 goals on Backlund's wing, which is more than he ever scored in JUNIORS.

Players on Backlund's line routinely see significant increases in production, despite playing tougher minutes.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Jiri Hudler led the NHL in even strength scoring when playing on Backlund's wing. He was out of the league 2 years later.

Acting like Backlund is a big drag on a player's production is ridiculous. Lance Bouma scored 16 goals on Backlund's wing, which is more than he ever scored in JUNIORS.

Players on Backlund's line routinely see significant increases in production, despite playing tougher minutes.

Don't disagree with your point on Backlund not being a drag on players production. But Hudler played 87 minutes at Even Strength with Backlund in his big 14/15 season.

Hudler played pretty much exclusively with Monahan that season (594 minutes).

[TheIronMaiden]

I think that it is same to assume that Rittich will get his deal done long before Tkachuk does.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I think that it is same to assume that Rittich will get his deal done long before Tkachuk does.

I don't know about that. Rittich has arbitration rights, so it would not be unsurprising to see them working on a deal well into August.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

I agree.

Jiri Hudler led the NHL in even strength scoring when playing on Backlund's wing. He was out of the league 2 years later.

Acting like Backlund is a big drag on a player's production is ridiculous. Lance Bouma scored 16 goals on Backlund's wing, which is more than he ever scored in JUNIORS.

Players on Backlund's line routinely see significant increases in production, despite playing tougher minutes.

Jaromir jagr once scored 149 points with backlund as his centre and other things that just aren't true.

[jlh2640]

Both guys may not be cheap but are important

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Hudler played 87 minutes at Even Strength with Backlund in his big 14/15 season.

Hudler played pretty much exclusively with Monahan that season (594 minutes).

My mistake.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by blender

As has been mentioned before by myself and others, a big driver of AAV is term. It is hard to discuss absolute values without taking term into account.

I believe that if necessary Treliving's would sacrifice term to get a more workable cap hit.

There is always angst about these negotiations amongst fans who want to see the best possible outcome for the team they love. There are those who take pessimistic views, and those who dream of hometown discounts, but the reality usually lands in the middle. It will be interesting to see the result.

For the record, I'm calling 6 x 7.5.

I think that's as good a guess as I've seen.

If the term is 6 years or less, the number should be below $8.0.

And I expect that Tkachuk would prefer the financial security of a long term deal, but would prefer something less than 7 to keep his UFA options open at a time when his age gives him quite a bit more leverage.

Extending his UFA time for 2-3 years will be very expensive as it removes so much leverage for the player in his prime.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I don't think that's true. I think it's fair to say that Monahan isn't just a lucky beneficiary of Gaudreau's presence but "just as much"? No, I think Monahan benefits from playing alongside Johnny more then Johnny benefits from playing alongside Monahan.

Away from Gaudreau Monahan has scored 2G 7Pts 13GP.
Away from Monahan Gaudreau has scored 1G and 2Pts in 10GP.

I think Monahan is so understated that it is easy to miss how important he is to the team, but those numbers could be used to suggest that Gaudreau is the main beneficiary of that pairing. I am not making that argument, but I do believe that both players help each other a lot.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Backlund has scored 47, 53, 45 and is on pace for 45 this year.

Tkachuk is on pace to double Backlund's output this year.

Scoring 90 points on backlund's wing is a huge freakin' accomplishment.

Like, what?

Tkachuk gets a lot of PP1 points.

[Ryan Coke]

Originally Posted by blender

As has been mentioned before by myself and others, a big driver of AAV is term. It is hard to discuss absolute values without taking term into account.

I believe that if necessary Treliving's would sacrifice term to get a more workable cap hit.

There is always angst about these negotiations amongst fans who want to see the best possible outcome for the team they love. There are those who take pessimistic views, and those who dream of hometown discounts, but the reality usually lands in the middle. It will be interesting to see the result.

For the record, I'm calling 6 x 7.5.

Agree with your points above, and can someone tell me exactly how many rfa years Tkachuk has left? That is the other critical variable for predictions for his contract, as well as for any comparables.

1 more or less year of UFA purchase will make a big difference to the AAV.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tkachuk gets a lot of PP1 points.

so does gaudreau?

probably a coincidence.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

so does gaudreau?

probably a coincidence.

You missed the point. We are comparing the points for Backlund and Tkachuk, not Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

Tkachuk picks up a fair percentage of his points on PP1. Something like 37%. That's good for him and he deserves them. But obviously Backlund's not going to get those points. Put him on that unit and his points go up some (obviously not to the same level).

[Kasi]

I’d be pretty wary giving Tkachuk anywhere near 9 million dollars. He’s a great player no doubt but if he was that good you’d think Backlund would have seen a bump playing with him. But Backlund scored as much the season before he arrived as he has since. Tkachuk is also not a good skater at all and if that slips as he ages it could be pretty painful. I’d give him no more than 7.5 and be prepared to not have 8 years and probably accept 6. I like him a lot but he’s a winger and you can’t compare him to centers in cost. Compare him to other wingers and 7.5 is more than fair.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You missed the point. We are comparing the points for Backlund and Tkachuk, not Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

Tkachuk picks up a fair percentage of his points on PP1. Something like 37%. That's good for him and he deserves them. But obviously Backlund's not going to get those points. Put him on that unit and his points go up some (obviously not to the same level).

lol.

It's so weird that tkachuk is in the first pp unit and backlund in the second.

It's almost like there is some reason for it that I just can't put my finger on.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence. Probably nothing to it.

Come on, man.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

lol.

It's so weird that tkachuk is in the first pp unit and backlund in the second.

It's almost like there is some reason for it that I just can't put my finger on.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence. Probably nothing to it.

Come on, man.

Come on yourself, ricardo.

[GioforPM]

Jeebus. Yes, Tkachuk is a much better offensive player than Backlund. Yes, he deserves the PP1 time. I'm just saying that Backlund isn't a slug and if he was on PP1 you could add a few more points to his total. That's all. You are acting like Tkachuk is playing with Westgarth and Peluso.