[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

I’m very confused, are you suggesting that James Neals goal output has absolutely no bearing on the flames win/loss record? ...and that if he scored say 10 more goals (to this point) then the Flames would likely have had no additional wins or OTL’s

Why are the Flames spending an incremental $7+ million on a player whose performances (good or bad) you think are so inconsequential to team success.

No, what he is saying is that there is no way to reasonably allocate the goals that Neal should have scored. Sure, go ahead and say Neal should have 10 goals. But in which games? You can't just allocate his theoretical goals to games in which the Flames lost by 1 goal, and then say 'he cost us X points'. It doesn't work that way. Goals tend to get scored in bunches, and in all likelihood, the majority of his goals would have come in games when the team was putting up several (this is true for all scorers).

Would it help to have more secondary scoring? Absolutely.

Would Neal having a bunch more goals mean we probably have more points? No doubt.

But, unlike with a goalie (where the mistakes are clear, and the results are clear), there is no way to determine how many more points we might have if Neal had more goals.

[neo45]

Neal is worse in year one of his deal than Lucic is in year 3 of his deal, and most people went into the season thinking Lucic was the single worst contract in the league.

If things keep trending downward for Neal, which they do for essentially every over 30 free agent, his deal could actually go down as the worst free agent signing ever. And I don’t mean one of the worst. The worst. 15 points in the first season of a long term deal for a forward would probably qualify him.

There is no overstating how big of a disaster this signing has been so far.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by neo45

Neal is worse in year one of his deal than Lucic is in year 3 of his deal, and most people went into the season thinking Lucic was the single worst contract in the league.

If things keep trending downward for Neal, which they do for essentially every over 30 free agent, his deal could actually go down as the worst free agent signing ever. And I don’t mean one of the worst. The worst. 15 points in the first season of a long term deal for a forward would probably qualify him.

They can't trend downward. He currently isn't producing. If that continues, he'll get less ice-time (which means less impact on the team). Or, this was a bad year and he'll be better next year. But it isn't going to get progressively worse.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

They can't trend downward. He currently isn't producing. If that continues, he'll get less ice-time (which means less impact on the team). Or, this was a bad year and he'll be better next year. But it isn't going to get progressively worse.

Trend downward as in his own production when he starts getting benched or sent to Stockton, which is very possible for this point.

From a team perspective, things can only go up when a non-passenger replaces him and produces.

[Enoch Root]

There is another big difference between Neal and Lucic (and I am not trying to make excuses here, just stating a fact):

The Oilers have no depth and no secondary scoring. They NEED to make major changes. But they can't because they have no cap space (thanks, in large part, to Lucic).

Conversely, the Flames are deep at forward, and are a top team in scoring. So, even though Neal is currently in a similar boat to Lucic, it isn't hurting the team, and they can be patient in trying to get him back on track. They can put him on the 3rd line where it isn't having a huge effect on production.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by neo45

Trend downward as in his own production when he starts getting benched or sent to Stockton, which is very possible for this point.

From a team perspective, things can only go up when a non-passenger replaces him and produces.

He has 4G and 4A, there isn't a lot of trending down to be done there.

And as I said, if it continues, his ice-time will be reduced.

Really, there is only upside from here (either from Neal, or from someone else that gets his ice-time)

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There is another big difference between Neal and Lucic (and I am not trying to make excuses here, just stating a fact):

The Oilers have no depth and no secondary scoring. They NEED to make major changes. But they can't because they have no cap space (thanks, in large part, to Lucic).

Conversely, the Flames are deep at forward, and are a top team in scoring. So, even though Neal is currently in a similar boat to Lucic, it isn't hurting the team, and they can be patient in trying to get him back on track. They can put him on the 3rd line where it isn't having a huge effect on production.

Lucic’s contract is also essentially as secure as they come in the NHL in terms of pay structure and the NMC.

Neal can at least be bought out or sent to Stockton depending on when Treliving loses patience. The optics for the GM admitting a massive costly mistake also come into play here. Treliving will give Neal every undeserved chance to turn things around which is why guys like Frolik are upset

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Would Neal having a bunch more goals mean we probably have more points? No doubt.

.

Isn’t that what Classic_Sniper was saying?

[thymebalm]

James Neal hasn’t used his hockey stick to score a goal since November 1st, 2018.

He is -12 on a +31 team.

I look forward to him being pushed even further down the depth chart towards Stockton at this years trade deadline.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

Isn’t that what Classic_Sniper was saying?

Yes, but he/she was trying to quantify it and was very likely massively overstating it (which is what my post was saying, but you decided not to quote that part)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

James Neal hasn’t used his hockey stick to score a goal since November 1st, 2018.

He is -12 on a +31 team.

I look forward to him being pushed even further down the depth chart towards Stockton at this years trade deadline.

Odd thing to look forward to. I look forward to him finding a groove and turning his production around.

[FBI]

I'm going to reverse the trend here and say that this new PP2 shooters mentality is the catalyst to get Neal going.. He scores a PP goal tonight and scores 12 goals in the 2nd half of the season to finish with 16.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

...
I look forward to him being pushed even further down the depth chart towards Stockton at this years trade deadline.

Why would you look forward to this??? Are you a Flames fan?

[8sPOT]

Neal is so snake bitten that I wonder if he's even scoring in practice at this point.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

James Neal hasn’t used his hockey stick to score a goal since November 1st, 2018.

He is -12 on a +31 team.

I look forward to him being pushed even further down the depth chart towards Stockton at this years trade deadline.

What team do you cheer for?

[Itse]

Buying out Neal would save $3.8M in cap space for the next four seasons, which is exactly the length of our current window. That's how long we have with all of Gaudreau, Lindholm and Monahan on bargain contracts, which makes those next years our best shot at the cup.

When has a veteran player ever struggled this bad and still turned his game around, especially for multiple years? That's just not going to happen, he's never going to be worth his contract. It's a disaster of a signing, and really the only thing left is cutting our losses.

With $3.8M you'd be in tough to do worse than James Neal, who is currently just dragging his line down. He doesn't do anything well. Doesn't score, isn't physical enough to matter, isn't fast, and he's possibly the worst defensive player on the team. He might not be absolutely terrible, but if he wasn't a big UFA signing he'd be in rotation to eat popcorn. He's playing like an okay 4th liner. Jankowski and Bennett are spending time covering for him when they should be playing with a veteran that either covers for them while they try to put up points or helps them create those goals.

If you can find a team that will gamble on him returning to form with us retaining at most $2M, you make that move and start the car. Otherwise it's just a question of whether you buy him out next summer or hope there's a compliance buyout the year after that.

All that said, it's unlikely anyone will take him off our hands and he's a warm body so there's no point buying him out now. It is what is and most likely there's nothing to be done about the situation this season. He might be worth a couple of goals in the playoffs.

I also think all of this is obvious enough that there's not much of a rational discussion to be had here. Nothing has changed from the start of the season, nothing will change, everyone has their opinions made at this point.

So rant on if you feel like ranting, theres plenty of reason to complain, but please stop fighting about him in other threads. Fights over Smith and Neal keep hijacking thread after thread and it's just tiresome. It's too close to being all there's is to the PGT's, that and Gaskals ATL reports.

[Robbob]

Neal is just saving himself. He has played a crap ton of hockey that last little while. At least that is what I am telling myself.

[CanadaMatt]

What would it take to move Neal out? (probably to a team struggling to get to the cap floor)

To Flames: 7th round draft pick

To <Team>: Neal, Kylington, 2nd Round pick

Would this entice a team to take the 5.75mm cap hit?

Not saying I’d like to see Kylington go as I think he has solid 2nd pair potential. Just trying to figure out what the consensus price to move Neal would be. Too much, too little?

[Roof-Daddy]

I highly doubt the Flames will buy out Neal or part with assets to trade him this quickly. Especially with the team performing this well. He's going to get a lot of rope at this rate.

If anything it'll be a compliance buy out from the next lock out they use on him, if his performance doesn't improve.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

What would it take to move Neal out? (probably to a team struggling to get to the cap floor)

To Flames: 7th round draft pick

To <Team>: Neal, Kylington, 2nd Round pick

Would this entice a team to take the 5.75mm cap hit?

Not saying I’d like to see Kylington go as I think he has solid 2nd pair potential. Just trying to figure out what the consensus price to move Neal would be. Too much, too little?

Too much. Not only is there no reason for us to shed the contract right now, thinking there isn’t a team out there that thinks he’ll turn it around is wacky.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Flames fan actually propose a worse trade for us than the Regher deal, but there you go.

We’d be better off buying him out FFS.