Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I am not sure that I would agree with the first being a "check". He has won slightly more than he lost so far, but I am not sure I would say we can expect that as the season grinds on and the team faces inevitable adversity. When trying to predict future outcomes, past performance is only worth so much when dealing with a depreciating asset.

There is another very important attribute that you didn't include. A good back up should be able to take over and carry the team for a few weeks if the starter struggles or is injured. Rittich has been lights out, but is still unproven over the course of a full season. A good back up should be insurance, and I don't feel that is Smith at this point.

A backup should do this?
I'd guess is not the case for at least 75% of NHL teams.
Most are screwed if the starter goes down. We can hope Rittich stays healthy, and continues his great play.

We can also hope hat Smith will win more than he loses the rest of the way, and maybe gets 30% of remaining starts. So maybe 15 starts where the Flames get 18-20 points would be fantastic the rest of the way.
I don't think this is unrealistic?

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

A backup should do this?
I'd guess is not the case for at least 75% of NHL teams.
Most are screwed if the starter goes down. We can hope Rittich stays healthy, and continues his great play.

We can also hope hat Smith will win more than he loses the rest of the way, and maybe gets 30% of remaining starts. So maybe 15 starts where the Flames get 18-20 points would be fantastic the rest of the way.
I don't think this is unrealistic?

A career backup probably would buckle in that kind of setting. If you're thinking instead of a young backup being groomed to take the reins in a couple seasons, that's an entirely different scenario.

I also loathe seeing W-L being used in Smith's defense from other posters. He has 4 wins this season while playing like complete trash (3 or more GA, sub .900 sv%). So 4 out of those 11 shiny W's being counted were because the team poured on the offense and saved his sorry behind when he didn't give them a good chance to win.

It's like the one positive stat line that can possibly be nitpicked (and did) because everything else is crap.

Forget the 'good guy, supportive' baloney. You want that from everyone in your locker room, don't you? But from a backup specifically, you want him to do his job well enough to give your team a chance to win. Whoever he plays. And Smith has been doing that in less than half of his starts.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Agreed.

And unlike most backups Smith has done it, and with that there's a chance he could rise up and be a starter again in case of injury or Rittich hitting a wall.

I don't think that's the case with most backups.

[no this isn't saying Smith WILL rise up and become a starter]

Well of course it's a possibility. But outlook ain't good. The guy is on the wrong side of 35.

He is similar to Mason McDonald in that he needs to be peppered to really engage goalie mode properly. Remember how the team forgot how to play defense for the start of last season and Smith looked like he was going Vezina-mode? Like he did for most of his time in AZ? It's as if we're seeing the reverse effect fully kick in now.

His sv%'s this season when the team allows 24 shots or less on him is a complete WTF horror show.

.818, .800, .792, .714, .875, .864, .813, .929, .917, .714

25 or more:

SO, .923, .867, .889, .960, .808, .929, .966, SO, .926

So if they want to start Smitty, Peters must tell the D to pinch like mofos and jump up in the play 100% of the time, and for the forwards to backcheck like Taylor Hall.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

A career backup probably would buckle in that kind of setting. If you're thinking instead of a young backup being groomed to take the reins in a couple seasons, that's an entirely different scenario.

I also loathe seeing W-L being used in Smith's defense from other posters. He has 4 wins this season while playing like complete trash (3 or more GA, sub .900 sv%). So 4 out of those 11 shiny W's being counted were because the team poured on the offense and saved his sorry behind when he didn't give them a good chance to win.

I only count 3, with one loss where he played well enough to win but didn’t get any run support.

[Gaskal]

Vancouver, Colorado, Columbus, Philadelphia

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I only count 3, with one loss where he played well enough to win but didn’t get any run support.

That’s my count too. Was the loss the SJ game?

[Kasi]

He didn’t play like trash in Columbus. Now Rittich did there and got pulled. I wish people wouldn’t get hung up on save percentage and shot counts. Just because a team puts up a lot of shots doesn’t mean they were dangerous. For example the second Blackhawks game didn’t have a lot of shots against, but there was like 5 breakaways.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Vancouver, Colorado, Columbus, Philadelphia

Philly isn’t credited as one of his wins, if it was it would put his total up to 12. That’s one of Rittich’s W’s.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Vancouver, Colorado, Columbus, Philadelphia

I'd give him a break on the Columbus game. He came in with the team down by multiple goals and once they got the lead the game was never even tied again. It was Rittich who was bailed out that game.

[EldrickOnIce]

If Smight starts 15 games the rest of the way and the Flames get 18 points (8-5-2) that would good.
That's 0.600 and 98 point pace. That would do as a backup, yes?
His current win% on the season is 0.575

This would have Rittich at ~50 games. I this type of split manages his starts well enough?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

If Smight starts 15 games the rest of the way and the Flames get 18 points (8-5-2) that would good.
That's 0.600 and 98 point pace. That would do as a backup, yes?
His current win% on the season is 0.575

This would have Rittich at ~50 games. I this type of split manages his starts well enough?

Hard to say because Rittich is still an unknown over the long haul. His numbers might regress which would not be too unusual at all for a goalie that starts the season as a back up. I am as thrilled at his current performance as anyone, but still really cautious about him (or any goalie for that matter) sustaining that for a full season.

If Rittich regresses a little and if Smith can't step in and do at least 0.600 (I expect 0.500 at this point), then it definitely could negatively affect playoff seeding the very least.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

A backup should do this?
I'd guess is not the case for at least 75% of NHL teams.
Most are screwed if the starter goes down. We can hope Rittich stays healthy, and continues his great play.

We can also hope hat Smith will win more than he loses the rest of the way, and maybe gets 30% of remaining starts. So maybe 15 starts where the Flames get 18-20 points would be fantastic the rest of the way.
I don't think this is unrealistic?

Considering critical stats, like GAA, SA% and W/L records, here is a list of goalies that started the season as a back-up (or 3rd stringer) and performed at at least the same pace or better than the incumbent for at least 10 games:

Hill (Arizona)
Halak (Boston)
Rittich
McElhinney (Carolina)
Grubauer (Colorado)
Columbus (Korpisalo)
Koskinen (Edmonton)
Reimer (Florida)
Jack Campbell (LA)
Cal Peterson (LA)
Alex Stalock (Minnesota)
Juuse Saros (Nashville)
Kinkaid (NJ)
Lehner (Islanders)
DeSmith (Pitts)
Dell (SJ)
Domingue (Tampa)
Copley (Washington)
Brossoit (Winnipeg)

That is 18/31 teams (LA gets credit for two) or 61% of teams that have a back-up that can maintain momentum for at least a little while.



Obviously you can't expect the back-up to carry the team forever, but it should be expected that a good back-up goalie can do it for a while. Mike Smith even as a back-up has worse numbers in every aspect than the current starting goalie (who was the back-up to start the season). Does anyone really feel that Smith could at the very least have a similar or better GAA, SA% or a W/L record if Rittich went down? I think if Smith had to step in for a 2 or 3 weeks, it would be a disaster. Smith and Rittich have played behind the same team for exactly the same number of games, but their critical stats are probably further off than any other tandem in the NHL where both goalies have played at least 10 games.

Good teams these days have solid tandems. It's not like it used to be where the back-up just opened the door and handed out water. Like I mentioned in another post, last playoffs, 29 goalies saw action at some point. At some point, Smith is very likely going to have to play some meaningful games and that thought is kind of depressing.

[jayswin]

Mike Smith's goaltending abilities are not okay for a contending team's back up position, going forward. I get that it will be very difficult to do something, but we're getting to the point where we may have to do something, even if difficult.

You know it's bad when the biggest goalie defender in broadcasting (Hrudey) is vehemently stating "Mike Smith HAS to have that!".

[Mathgod]

I'm convinced that even Gillies would be an upgrade over Smith at this point.

[Tyler]

Mike Smith sucks

[Erick Estrada]

Yeah I think he's done as an NHL goaltender in any capacity. He is no longer quick enough to play deep in the net as he's done his entire career. It's not a matter of him getting things together as he's just no longer good enough to play in the NHL as father time has caught up to him.

[Bunk]

Which teams want to lose for Hughes? They’d probably love to have Smith.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yeah I think he's done as an NHL goaltender in any capacity. He is no longer quick enough to play deep in the net as he's done his entire career. It's not a matter of him getting things together as he's just no longer good enough to play in the NHL as father time has caught up to him.

Yep, clear as day. He plays deep like he always has but now he just flat out loses pucks from non threatening areas and can't reflex save anymore. Those were his bread and butter.

Treliving now has the difficult task of both replacing him and putting him somewhere, but it has to be done.

[jonkaupp]

Anyone who still thinks Mike Smith is a capable backup at this point is clearly an idiot

[tripin_billie]

Another 2 points lost tonight. Flames should have won that game 4-3. Average goaltending gets the Flames 2. This is just so frustrating.

[Looch City]

There should be no Smith apologists left after this game.

He's a good guy, competes hard, but it just not an NHL caliber goalie anymore.